Application of the Farm Simulation Model approach on economic loss estimation due to Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Bangladesh dairy farms-strategies, options, and way forward.

The objective of this paper is to quantify the economic loss of the dairy farms due to the pandemic novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) infection by analyzing the real-time data of two typical farms (BD-2 and BD-14 cow) in Bangladesh and propose a strategic plan of action to make policy decisions in order to support the dairy industry. The International Farm Comparison Network (IFCN) Farm Simulation Approach and Technology Impact Policy Impact Calculations (TIPICAL) model was used considering with Corona (WC) and without Corona (WOC). The Integrated Dairy Research Network (IDRN) database (January 2019 to July 2020) was used for simulation of IFCN two typical farms. The milk price is decreased by 17% and feed price is increased by 3.7% due to COVID-19 in March which was used as the base for farm simulation. This resulted in a decrease in milk yield by 7.9% and 8.9% for small household and family farms, respectively. The cost of milk production increased by 19.10% and 10.9% for household and family farms, respectively. This has an overall negative impact on farm income which accounted for national economic loss from dairy farms in Bangladesh to 4.43 million USD/day (36.84 crore BDT). This loss has been fluctuated from April onward and was higher in June (3.83 million USD/day) due to a combination of COVID-19, flood, and seasonality effect on lowering milk production. At the same time, the farmers' response to the resilience capacity (liquidity, operating profit margin, and financial performance) to combat COVID-19-induced situation has been declined substantially. Based on this, we conclude that the government might take a strategy to support farmers by providing financial support for increasing the operating capital and decreasing the cost of milk production. The outcome of this study is expected to be beneficial for policymakers, farmers, and processors in Bangladesh and similar other countries elsewhere.

Current situation and the development of the dairy industry in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Syria.

The development of the dairy industry plays an important role in the economy of Middle Eastern countries. Judged by its growth rate, the dairy industry is viewed as one of the most progressive food industries in the Middle East. During the early 1970s, countries established executive programs to promote dairy farming; the major objective was to attain self-sufficiency in milk production. A massive investment was set up for importing top class cattle, complying with top industry operating standards, and a simultaneous introduction of the latest technology in processing, packaging, and distributing. Milk production has grown tremendously at rates of 6.6% and 4.9% in Syria and Saudi Arabia, respectively, between 2002 and 2007, which resulted in these nations being almost self-sufficient. Regarding Jordan, milk production has not yet met this target. An excessive growth in the dairy industry is quite noticeable in this region with an expanding capacity for exports. The aim of this study is to show the most recent trends and future prospects of the dairy industries in Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan. It also attempts to investigate the drivers for the development of milk production, consumption, and trade in the region.

An economic comparison of typical dairy farming systems in South Africa, Morocco, Uganda and Cameroon.

Population growth, urbanisation and increased per capita milk consumption are main reasons for recent increasing milk demand in Africa. Due to globalisation, it is important to know how competitive various production systems are, especially as most governments promote local production and disfavour dairy imports. The TIPI-CAL (Technology Impact, Policy Impact Calculations model) was used to analyse and compare costs and returns of predominant dairy farming systems in South Africa, Morocco, Uganda and Cameroon. Results show that, as farms grew larger in size, family resources (especially land and labour) became insufficient and there was need for their acquisition from external sources. Though extensive dairy farming systems had the lowest cost of milk production (<20 US-$ per 100 kg milk), their input productivities and milk yields were lower, leading to very low net cash returns from dairying. Large intensive farms in South Africa had relatively low costs (<30 US-$ per 100 kg milk) and a high Return on Investment (ROI) due to a higher efficiency of input utilisation. It was concluded that, intensification of dairy farming and simultaneously increasing the scale of production will greatly increase productivity of farm inputs, thus recommended for development of the dairy sector in African countries.

Nutritional and ecological evaluation of dairy farming systems based on concentrate feeding regimes in semi-arid environments of Jordan.

The objective of this study was to evaluate the nutritional and ecological aspects of feeding systems practiced under semi-arid environments in Jordan. Nine dairy farms representing the different dairy farming systems were selected for this study. Feed samples (n = 58), fecal samples (n = 108), and milk samples (n = 78) were collected from the farms and analysed for chemical composition. Feed samples were also analysed for metabolisable energy (ME) contents and in vitro organic matter digestibility according to Hohenheim-Feed-Test. Furthermore, fecal nitrogen concentration was determined to estimate in vivo organic matter digestibility. ME and nutrient intakes were calculated based on the farmer's estimate of dry matter intake and the analysed composition of the feed ingredients. ME and nutrient intakes were compared to recommended standard values for adequate supply of ME, utilizable crude protein, rumen undegradable crude protein (RUCP), phosphorus (P), and calcium (Ca). Technology Impact Policy Impact Calculation model complemented with a partial life cycle assessment model was used to estimate greenhouse gas emissions of milk production at farm gate. The model predicts CH4, N2O and CO2 gases emitted either directly or indirectly. Average daily energy corrected milk yield (ECM) was 19 kg and ranged between 11 and 27 kg. The mean of ME intake of all farms was 184 MJ/d with a range between 115 and 225 MJ/d. Intake of RUCP was lower than the standard requirements in six farms ranging between 19 and 137 g/d, was higher (32 and 93 g/d) in two farms, and matched the requirements in one farm. P intake was higher than the requirements in all farms (mean oversupply = 19 g/d) and ranged between 3 and 30 g/d. Ca intake was significantly below the requirements in small scale farms. Milk nitrogen efficiency N-eff (milk N/intake N) varied between 19% and 28% and was mainly driven by the level of milk yield. Total CO2 equivalent (CO2 equ) emission ranged between 0.90 and 1.88 kg CO2/kg ECM milk, where the enteric and manure CH4 contributed to 52% of the total CO2 equ emissions, followed by the indirect emissions of N2O and the direct emissions of CO2 gases which comprises 17% and 15%, respectively, from total CO2 equ emissions. Emissions per kg of milk were significantly driven by the level of milk production (r (2) = 0.93) and of eDMI (r (2) = 0.88), while the total emissions were not influenced by diet composition. A difference of 16 kg ECM/d in milk yield, 9% in N-eff and of 0.9 kg CO2 equ/kg in ECM milk observed between low and high yielding animals. To improve the nutritional status of the animals, protein requirements have to be met. Furthermore, low price by-products with a low carbon credit should be included in the diets to replace the high proportion of imported concentrate feeds and consequently improve the economic situation of dairy farms and mitigate CO2 equ emissions.

Contribution of milk production to global greenhouse gas emissions. An estimation based on typical farms.

BACKGROUND, AIM AND SCOPE: Studies on the contribution of milk production to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are rare (FAO 2010) and often based on crude data which do not appropriately reflect the heterogeneity of farming systems. This article estimates GHG emissions from milk production in different dairy regions of the world based on a harmonised farm data and assesses the contribution of milk production to global GHG emissions. MATERIALS, METHODS AND RESULTS: The methodology comprises three elements: (1) the International Farm Comparison Network (IFCN) concept of typical farms and the related globally standardised dairy model farms representing 45 dairy regions in 38 countries; (2) a partial life cycle assessment model for estimating GHG emissions of the typical dairy farms; and (3) standard regression analysis to estimate GHG emissions from milk production in countries for which no typical farms are available in the IFCN database. Across the 117 typical farms in the 38 countries analysed, the average emission rate is 1.50 kg CO(2) equivalents (CO(2)-eq.)/kg milk. The contribution of milk production to the global anthropogenic emissions is estimated at 1.3 Gt CO(2)-eq./year, accounting for 2.65% of total global anthropogenic emissions (49 Gt; IPCC, Synthesis Report for Policy Maker, Valencia, Spain, 2007). DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: We emphasise that our estimates of the contribution of milk production to global GHG emissions are subject to uncertainty. Part of the uncertainty stems from the choice of the appropriate methods for estimating emissions at the level of the individual animal.

Milk production systems in Central Uganda: a farm economic analysis.

The Ugandan dairy sector is developing rapidly over recent years and is dominated by small-scale farmers owning more than 90 percent of the national cattle population. Due to market forces and higher competition for production factors, milk production systems are intensifying, necessitating proper understanding of the new production tendencies. Three intensive and four extensive production systems were identified and analysed, using TIPI-CAL (Technology Impact Policy Impact Calculations model). The results show that the production systems are very different in many respects but share similar development trends. Whereas intensive systems use graded animals and invest heavily into feeding, buildings and machinery, extensive systems use local breeds and invest minimally. Total cost of milk production falls with increasing herd size, while dairy returns vary among farms from 18 to 35 USD/100 Kg of milk. All systems make an economic profit, except the intensive one-cow farm, which heavily employs family resources in dairying. Due to better management of resources and access to inputs and markets, dairy farming closer to urban areas and using improved breeds is highly profitable, especially with larger herd sizes. Stakeholders should favour such practices as well as others which can improve productivity, especially in African countries where traditional systems dominate dairying.