Excess natural-cause mortality in US counties and its association with reported COVID-19 deaths.

In the United States, estimates of excess deaths attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic have consistently surpassed reported COVID-19 death counts. Excess deaths reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes may represent unrecognized COVID-19 deaths, deaths caused by pandemic health care interruptions, and/or deaths from the pandemic's socioeconomic impacts. The geographic and temporal distribution of these deaths may help to evaluate which explanation is most plausible. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to produce monthly estimates of excess natural-cause mortality for US counties over the first 30 mo of the pandemic. From March 2020 through August 2022, 1,194,610 excess natural-cause deaths occurred nationally [90% PI (Posterior Interval): 1,046,000 to 1,340,204]. A total of 162,886 of these excess natural-cause deaths (90% PI: 14,276 to 308,480) were not reported to COVID-19. Overall, 15.8 excess deaths were reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes for every 100 reported COVID-19 deaths. This number was greater in nonmetropolitan counties (36.0 deaths), the West (Rocky Mountain states: 31.6 deaths; Pacific states: 25.5 deaths), and the South (East South Central states: 26.0 deaths; South Atlantic states: 25.0 deaths; West South Central states: 24.2 deaths). In contrast, reported COVID-19 death counts surpassed estimates of excess natural-cause deaths in metropolitan counties in the New England and Middle Atlantic states. Increases in reported COVID-19 deaths correlated temporally with increases in excess deaths reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes in the same and/or prior month. This suggests that many excess deaths reported to non-COVID-19 natural causes during the first 30 mo of the pandemic in the United States were unrecognized COVID-19 deaths.

COVID-19 and excess mortality in the United States: A county-level analysis.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) excess deaths refer to increases in mortality over what would normally have been expected in the absence of the COVID-19 pandemic. Several prior studies have calculated excess deaths in the United States but were limited to the national or state level, precluding an examination of area-level variation in excess mortality and excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19. In this study, we take advantage of county-level variation in COVID-19 mortality to estimate excess deaths associated with the pandemic and examine how the extent of excess mortality not assigned to COVID-19 varies across subsets of counties defined by sociodemographic and health characteristics. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In this ecological, cross-sectional study, we made use of provisional National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) data on direct COVID-19 and all-cause mortality occurring in US counties from January 1 to December 31, 2020 and reported before March 12, 2021. We used data with a 10-week time lag between the final day that deaths occurred and the last day that deaths could be reported to improve the completeness of data. Our sample included 2,096 counties with 20 or more COVID-19 deaths. The total number of residents living in these counties was 319.1 million. On average, the counties were 18.7% Hispanic, 12.7% non-Hispanic Black, and 59.6% non-Hispanic White. A total of 15.9% of the population was older than 65 years. We first modeled the relationship between 2020 all-cause mortality and COVID-19 mortality across all counties and then produced fully stratified models to explore differences in this relationship among strata of sociodemographic and health factors. Overall, we found that for every 100 deaths assigned to COVID-19, 120 all-cause deaths occurred (95% CI, 116 to 124), implying that 17% (95% CI, 14% to 19%) of excess deaths were ascribed to causes of death other than COVID-19 itself. Our stratified models revealed that the percentage of excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19 was substantially higher among counties with lower median household incomes and less formal education, counties with poorer health and more diabetes, and counties in the South and West. Counties with more non-Hispanic Black residents, who were already at high risk of COVID-19 death based on direct counts, also reported higher percentages of excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19. Study limitations include the use of provisional data that may be incomplete and the lack of disaggregated data on county-level mortality by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and sociodemographic and health characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we found that direct COVID-19 death counts in the US in 2020 substantially underestimated total excess mortality attributable to COVID-19. Racial and socioeconomic inequities in COVID-19 mortality also increased when excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19 were considered. Our results highlight the importance of considering health equity in the policy response to the pandemic.

Practice Patterns of Physicians and Nurse Practitioners in Primary Care.

BACKGROUND: Primary care practices increasingly include nurse practitioners (NPs), in addition to physicians. Little is known about how the patient mix and clinical activities of colocated physicians and NPs compare. OBJECTIVES: To describe the clinical activities of NPs, compared with physicians. RESEARCH DESIGN: We used claims and electronic health record data from athenahealth Inc., on primary care practices in 2017 and a cross-sectional analysis with practice fixed effects. SUBJECTS: Patients receiving treatment from physicians and NPs within primary care practices. MEASURES: First, we measured patient characteristics (payer, age, sex, race, chronic condition count) and visit characteristics (new patient, scheduled duration, same-day visit, after-hours visit). Second, we measured procedures performed and diagnoses recorded during each visit. Finally, we measured daily quantity (visit volume, minutes scheduled for patient care, total work relative value units billed) of care. RESULTS: Relative to physicians, NPs treated younger and healthier patients. NPs also had a larger share of patients who were female, non-White, and covered by Medicaid, commercial insurance, or no insurance. NPs scheduled longer appointments and treated more patients on a same-day or after-hours basis. On average, "overlapping" services-those performed by NPs and physicians within the same practice-represented 92% of all service volume. The small share of services performed exclusively by physicians reflected greater clinical intensity. On a daily basis, NPs provided fewer and less intense visits than physicians within the same practice. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest considerable overlap between the clinical activities of colocated NPs and physicians, with some differentiation based on intensity of services provided.

Opioid Prescribing Rates in Nonmetropolitan and Metropolitan Counties Among Primary Care Providers Using an Electronic Health Record System - United States, 2014-2017.

Drug overdose is the leading cause of unintentional injury-associated death in the United States. Among 70,237 fatal drug overdoses in 2017, prescription opioids were involved in 17,029 (24.2%) (1). Higher rates of opioid-related deaths have been recorded in nonmetropolitan (rural) areas (2). In 2017, 14 rural counties were among the 15 counties with the highest opioid prescribing rates.* Higher opioid prescribing rates put patients at risk for addiction and overdose (3). Using deidentified data from the Athenahealth electronic health record (EHR) system, opioid prescribing rates among 31,422 primary care providers† in the United States were analyzed to evaluate trends from January 2014 to March 2017. This analysis assessed how prescribing practices varied among six urban-rural classification categories of counties, before and after the March 2016 release of CDC's Guideline for Prescribing Opioids for Chronic Pain (Guideline) (4). Patients in noncore (the most rural) counties had an 87% higher chance of receiving an opioid prescription compared with persons in large central metropolitan counties during the study period. Across all six county groups, the odds of receiving an opioid prescription decreased significantly after March 2016. This decrease followed a flat trend during the preceding period in micropolitan and large central metropolitan county groups; in contrast, the decrease continued previous downward trends in the other four county groups. Data from EHRs can effectively supplement traditional surveillance methods for monitoring trends in opioid prescribing and other areas of public health importance, with minimal lag time under ideal conditions. As less densely populated areas appear to indicate both substantial progress in decreasing opioid prescribing and ongoing need for reduction, community health care practices and intervention programs must continue to be tailored to community characteristics.

Price Transparency in Primary Care: Can Patients Learn About Costs When Scheduling an Appointment?

BACKGROUND: Cost-sharing in health insurance plans creates incentives for patients to shop for lower prices, but it is unknown what price information patients can obtain when scheduling office visits. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether new patients can obtain price information for a primary care visit and identify variation across insurance types, offices, and geographic areas. DESIGN: Simulated patient methodology in which trained interviewers posed as non-elderly adults seeking new patient primary care appointments. Caller insurance type (employer-sponsored insurance [ESI], Marketplace, or uninsured) and plan were experimentally manipulated. Callers who were offered a visit asked for price information. Unadjusted means and regression-adjusted differences by insurance, office types, and geography were calculated. PARTICIPANTS: Calls to a representative sample of primary care offices in ten states in 2014: Arkansas, Georgia, Iowa, Illinois, Massachusetts, Montana, New Jersey, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Texas (N = 7865). MAIN MEASURES: Callers recorded whether they were able to obtain a price. If not, they recorded whether they were referred to other sources for price information. KEY RESULTS: Overall, 61.8% of callers with ESI were able to obtain a price, versus 89.2% of uninsured and 47.3% of Marketplace callers (P < 0.001 for differences). Price information was also more readily available in small offices and in counties with high uninsured rates. Among callers not receiving a price, 72.1% of callers with ESI were referred to other sources (billing office or insurance company), versus 25.8% of uninsured and 50.9% of Marketplace callers (P < 0.001). A small fraction of insured callers were told their visit would be free. If not free, mean visit prices ranged from $157 for uninsured to $165 for ESI (P < 0.05). Prices were significantly lower at federally qualified health centers (FQHCs), smaller offices, and in counties with high uninsured and low-income rates. CONCLUSIONS: Price information is often unavailable for privately insured patients seeking primary care visits at the time a visit is scheduled.

Methods and Findings from the National Violent Death Reporting System for Identifying Gang-Like Homicides, 2005-2008.

BACKGROUND: The National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS) captures homicides that law enforcement or coroner/medical examiners deem as gang-related but the criteria used may vary across locations. Also, the existing gang-related variable likely underestimates the number of homicides that are associated with gang activity. This study utilizes NVDRS data to identify "gang-like" homicides which are not currently captured as "gang-related." METHODS: A set of criteria recommended by a panel of experts in gang violence, was applied to homicides collected in the NVDRS. These criteria, termed "gang-like" characteristics, were developed in order to better identify homicides consistent with gang activity. The narratives of the identified cases were then reviewed to refine the operational standard. After the reviews were complete, the typology was modified to finalize the operationalization of "gang-like" homicides. RESULTS: A total of 481 gang-like homicides were identified using the "gang-like" criteria. This represents an increase of almost 69% over the 696 gang-related homicides captured in NVDRS dataset. Gang-like and gang-related homicides combined represented 6.6% of homicides that occurred from 2005 to 2008. Among the 16 states included in this analysis, Colorado (15.5%) and Oklahoma (14%) had the highest percentage of homicides that were either gang-related or gang-like. Maryland had the greatest relative increase (227.3%) between gang related and gang-like homicides. CONCLUSION: The new "gang-like" variable complements the existing "gang-related" variable by providing an automated, standardized way to identify homicides that have circumstances consistent with gang activity. This new variable might be useful to states and localities seeking an efficient way to monitor homicides potentially resulting from gang activity. Additional efforts are needed to standardize the reporting of homicides associated with gang activity.

Primary Care Appointment Availability and the ACA Insurance Expansions.

In the current debate in Congress over the Affordable Care Act (ACA), the issue of provider access is a major concern. Fortunately, our 10-state audit study published in JAMA Internal Medicine finds that primary care appointment availability for new patients with Medicaid increased 5.4 percentage points between 2012 and 2016 and remained stable for patients with private coverage. Over the same period, both Medicaid patients and the privately insured experienced a one-day increase in median wait times. Higher appointment availability for Medicaid patients is a surprising result given the increase in demand for care from millions of new Medicaid enrollees. In this Issue Brief, we summarize our study's findings, expand on possible explanations, and extend the analysis by examining the relationship between appointment availability and state-level Medicaid expansions. We find that access to primary care increased for Medicaid patients only in states that extended Medicaid eligibility to low-income, nonelderly adults. Combined, these results suggest coverage provisions in the ACA have not overwhelmed primary care capacity.

The fragmentation of hospital use among a cohort of high utilizers: implications for emerging care coordination strategies for patients with multiple chronic conditions.

BACKGROUND: Use of multiple hospitals by patients with multiple chronic conditions (MCC) may undermine emerging care coordination initiatives. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence and correlates of fragmented hospital use among high users with MCC and derive implications for care management. RESEARCH DESIGN: Using all-payer hospital billing data, we follow a 2-year cohort of patients with at least 2 inpatient stays, identifying those with MCC and calculating the percentage using multiple hospitals and applying multivariate Poisson regression to predict correlates of multiple hospital use. SUBJECTS: The subjects included in our study were New Jersey adults with at least 2 inpatient stays during a 24-month period between 2007 and 2010. RESULTS: Nearly 80% of the study cohort had ≥2 chronic conditions and >30% had fragmented hospital use. The probability of visiting multiple hospitals was positively associated with the number of chronic conditions present at admission, total number of admissions, lower hospital market concentration, and injury or behavioral health diagnoses. Over 40% of patients with ≥4 stays had multiple hospital use. CONCLUSIONS: Fragmentation of hospital care occurs frequently among high utilizers with MCC. Although multiple hospital use is not necessarily inappropriate, it may present barriers to effective care coordination for complex patients with MCC, leading to higher costs or worse outcomes. Leaders of innovative delivery reforms such as Accountable Care Organizations should monitor and coordinate care for multiple hospital users, especially those with MCC.

Supply-side response to declining heroin purity: fentanyl overdose episode in New Jersey.

The inelastic price demand observations characteristic of illegal drug markets have led to the conclusion that the burden of a negative supply shock would be completely reflected to consumers. This paper argues that the increasing availability of prescription opioids may threaten heroin sellers' profit margin and force them to find alternative methods to compensate buyers in the event of a supply shock. We investigate the 2006 fentanyl overdose episode in New Jersey and argue that the introduction of non-pharmaceutical fentanyl, its spatial distribution, and the timing of overdose deaths may have been related to trends in heroin purity. Using medical examiner data, as well as data from the Drug Enforcement Administration, Office of Diversion Control on retail sales of prescription opioids in a negative binomial specification, we show that month-to-month fluctuations in heroin purity have a significant effect on fentanyl-related overdoses, particularly in those areas where prescription opioids are highly available.

Method choice in nonfatal self-harm as a predictor of subsequent episodes of self-harm and suicide: implications for clinical practice.

OBJECTIVES: We examined time-varying and time-invariant characteristics of nonfatal intentional self-harm episodes in relation to subsequent episodes of self-harm and suicide. METHODS: We conducted a follow-up cohort study through 2007 of 3600 patients discharged from hospitals in New Jersey with a primary diagnosis of intentional self-harm in 2003. We determined repetition of self-harm from hospital records and suicide from state registers. RESULTS: Use of methods other than drug overdose and cutting in self-harm events, greater medical severity of nonfatal episodes, and a history of multiple self-harm episodes increased the risk of suicide. However, most suicides occurred without these risk factors. Most suicides took place without intervening episodes of self-harm, and most persons used a low-lethality method (drug overdose or cutting) in their index episode, but switched to a more lethal method in their fatal episode. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that preventing suicide among persons with a history of self-harm must account for the possibility that they will adopt methods with higher case-fatality ratios than they previously tried.

Affordable Health Insurance Options for Small Business and Low-Wage Workers Remains Elusive: Experience With New Health Reimbursement Arrangements in New Jersey.

Low-wage workers and those employed by small businesses are least likely to be offered health insurance coverage and they are over-represented among the uninsured. Two new forms of health reimbursement arrangements (HRAs) that allow employers to help fund individual market coverage for workers have been touted as breakthrough strategies to help fill this gap. Despite several years of experience and low adoption, little is known about employer understanding of or views about these HRA options. Consistent with other evidence, only 11.8% of New Jersey employers we surveyed offer or plan to offer either of the HRA options. Few respondents (18.5%) report familiarity with either option. Even among businesses that offer or plan to offer this form of HRA, under half (47.6%) say that they are familiar with them. Other reasons cited for not offering these options include broker advice and complexity. While more investigation is needed, these findings suggest that new strategies should be explored to fill the gap in health insurance for low-wage and small business employees.

COVID-19 and All-Cause Mortality by Race, Ethnicity, and Age Across Five Periods of the Pandemic in the United States.

Racial/ethnic and age disparities in COVID-19 and all-cause mortality during 2020 are well documented, but less is known about their evolution over time. We examine changes in age-specific mortality across five pandemic periods in the United States from March 2020 to December 2022 among four racial/ethnic groups (non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, and non-Hispanic Asian) for ages 35+. We fit Gompertz models to all-cause and COVID-19 death rates by 5-year age groups and construct age-specific racial/ethnic mortality ratios across an Initial peak (Mar-Aug 2020), Winter peak (Nov 2020-Feb 2021), Delta peak (Aug-Oct 2021), Omicron peak (Nov 2021-Feb 2022), and Endemic period (Mar-Dec 2022). We then compare to all-cause patterns observed in 2019. The steep age gradients in COVID-19 mortality in the Initial and Winter peak shifted during the Delta peak, with substantial increases in mortality at working ages, before gradually returning to an older age pattern in the subsequent periods. We find a disproportionate COVID-19 mortality burden on racial and ethnic minority populations early in the pandemic, which led to an increase in all-cause mortality disparities and a temporary elimination of the Hispanic mortality advantage at certain age groups. Mortality disparities narrowed over time, with racial/ethnic all-cause inequalities during the Endemic period generally returning to pre-pandemic levels. Black and Hispanic populations, however, faced a younger age gradient in all-cause mortality in the Endemic period relative to 2019, with younger Hispanic and Black adults in a slightly disadvantageous position and older Black adults in a slightly advantageous position, relative to before the pandemic.

Associations between mortality from COVID-19 and other causes: A state-level analysis.

BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the high death toll from COVID-19 was accompanied by a rise in mortality from other causes of death. The objective of this study was to identify the relationship between mortality from COVID-19 and changes in mortality from specific causes of death by exploiting spatial variation in these relationships across US states. METHODS: We use cause-specific mortality data from CDC Wonder and population estimates from the US Census Bureau to examine relationships at the state level between mortality from COVID-19 and changes in mortality from other causes of death. We calculate age-standardized death rates (ASDR) for three age groups, nine underlying causes of death, and all 50 states and the District of Columbia between the first full year of the pandemic (March 2020-February 2021) and the year prior (March 2019-February 2020). We then estimate the relationship between changes in cause-specific ASDR and COVID-19 ASDR using linear regression analysis weighted by the size of the state's population. RESULTS: We estimate that causes of death other than COVID-19 represent 19.6% of the total mortality burden associated with COVID-19 during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. At ages 25+, circulatory disease accounted for 51.3% of this burden while dementia (16.4%), other respiratory diseases (12.4%), influenza/pneumonia (8.7%) and diabetes (8.6%) also contribute. In contrast, there was an inverse association across states between COVID-19 death rates and changes in death rates from cancer. We found no state-level association between COVID-19 mortality and rising mortality from external causes. CONCLUSIONS: States with unusually high death rates from COVID-19 experienced an even larger mortality burden than implied by those rates alone. Circulatory disease served as the most important route through which COVID-19 mortality affected death rates from other causes of death. Dementia and other respiratory diseases made the second and third largest contributions. In contrast, mortality from neoplasms tended to decline in states with the highest death rates from COVID-19. Such information may help to inform state-level responses aimed at easing the full mortality burden of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Differences Between Reported COVID-19 Deaths and Estimated Excess Deaths in Counties Across the United States, March 2020 to February 2022.

Accurate and timely tracking of COVID-19 deaths is essential to a well-functioning public health surveillance system. The extent to which official COVID-19 death tallies have captured the true toll of the pandemic in the United States is unknown. In the current study, we develop a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate monthly excess mortality in each county over the first two years of the pandemic and compare these estimates to the number of deaths officially attributed to Covid-19 on death certificates. Overall, we estimated that 268,176 excess deaths were not reported as Covid-19 deaths during the first two years of the Covid-19 pandemic, which represented 23.7% of all excess deaths that occurred. Differences between excess deaths and reported COVID-19 deaths were substantial in both the first and second year of the pandemic. Excess deaths were less likely to be reported as COVID-19 deaths in the Mountain division, in the South, and in nonmetro counties. The number of excess deaths exceeded COVID-19 deaths in all Census divisions except for the New England and Middle Atlantic divisions where there were more COVID-19 deaths than excess deaths in large metro areas and medium or small metro areas. Increases in excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19 followed similar patterns over time to increases in reported COVID-19 deaths and typically preceded or occurred concurrently with increases in reported COVID-19 deaths. Estimates from this study can be used to inform targeting of resources to areas in which the true toll of the COVID-19 pandemic has been underestimated.

Monthly excess mortality across counties in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic, March 2020 to February 2022.

Excess mortality is the difference between expected and observed mortality in a given period and has emerged as a leading measure of the COVID-19 pandemic's mortality impact. Spatially and temporally granular estimates of excess mortality are needed to understand which areas have been most impacted by the pandemic, evaluate exacerbating factors, and inform response efforts. We estimated all-cause excess mortality for the United States from March 2020 through February 2022 by county and month using a Bayesian hierarchical model trained on data from 2015 to 2019. An estimated 1,179,024 excess deaths occurred during the first 2 years of the pandemic (first: 634,830; second: 544,194). Overall, excess mortality decreased in large metropolitan counties but increased in nonmetropolitan counties. Despite the initial concentration of mortality in large metropolitan Northeastern counties, nonmetropolitan Southern counties had the highest cumulative relative excess mortality by July 2021. These results highlight the need for investments in rural health as the pandemic's rural impact grows.

COVID-19 Mortality by Race and Ethnicity in US Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Areas, March 2020 to February 2022.

Importance: Prior research has established that Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black residents in the US experienced substantially higher COVID-19 mortality rates in 2020 than non-Hispanic White residents owing to structural racism. In 2021, these disparities decreased. Objective: To assess to what extent national decreases in racial and ethnic disparities in COVID-19 mortality between the initial pandemic wave and subsequent Omicron wave reflect reductions in mortality vs other factors, such as the pandemic's changing geography. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study was conducted using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for COVID-19 deaths from March 1, 2020, through February 28, 2022, among adults aged 25 years and older residing in the US. Deaths were examined by race and ethnicity across metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas, and the national decrease in racial and ethnic disparities between initial and Omicron waves was decomposed. Data were analyzed from June 2021 through March 2023. Exposures: Metropolitan vs nonmetropolitan areas and race and ethnicity. Main Outcomes and Measures: Age-standardized death rates. Results: There were death certificates for 977 018 US adults aged 25 years and older (mean [SD] age, 73.6 [14.6] years; 435 943 female [44.6%]; 156 948 Hispanic [16.1%], 140 513 non-Hispanic Black [14.4%], and 629 578 non-Hispanic White [64.4%]) that included a mention of COVID-19. The proportion of COVID-19 deaths among adults residing in nonmetropolitan areas increased from 5944 of 110 526 deaths (5.4%) during the initial wave to a peak of 40 360 of 172 515 deaths (23.4%) during the Delta wave; the proportion was 45 183 of 210 554 deaths (21.5%) during the Omicron wave. The national disparity in age-standardized COVID-19 death rates per 100 000 person-years for non-Hispanic Black compared with non-Hispanic White adults decreased from 339 to 45 deaths from the initial to Omicron wave, or by 293 deaths. After standardizing for age and racial and ethnic differences by metropolitan vs nonmetropolitan residence, increases in death rates among non-Hispanic White adults explained 120 deaths/100 000 person-years of the decrease (40.7%); 58 deaths/100 000 person-years in the decrease (19.6%) were explained by shifts in mortality to nonmetropolitan areas, where a disproportionate share of non-Hispanic White adults reside. The remaining 116 deaths/100 000 person-years in the decrease (39.6%) were explained by decreases in death rates in non-Hispanic Black adults. Conclusions and Relevance: This study found that most of the national decrease in racial and ethnic disparities in COVID-19 mortality between the initial and Omicron waves was explained by increased mortality among non-Hispanic White adults and changes in the geographic spread of the pandemic. These findings suggest that despite media reports of a decline in disparities, there is a continued need to prioritize racial health equity in the pandemic response.

The role of context in shaping the relationship between physical health and suicide over the life course.

U.S. suicide rates are at a thirty-year high while physical health, as measured by life expectancy and pain, has declined, particularly for those without a college degree. We investigate how these patterns may be related by exploring the role of physical health problems in suicide deaths using 2019 data from the National Violent Death Reporting System. We estimate multilevel logistic regression models to examine (1) how individual risk factors are associated with the likelihood of a physical health circumstance underlying a suicide over the life course and (2) how context - the socioeconomic, health and policy environment of the state in which a decedent resides - may play a role. Physical health circumstances were present in about 20% of all suicides and in over half of suicide deaths for the older population in 2019. A gender crossover effect exists, in which women are more likely to have a physical health problem contribute to a suicide prior to age 60, but men surpass women after age 60 in that probability. Net of individual characteristics, we find significant variation across states in the likelihood of physical health circumstances. For all age groups, physical health circumstances are more likely in states that are less densely populated with weaker gun control laws and higher suicide rates. Among decedents younger than 65, the likelihood is elevated in states with limited health care access. This study highlights the critical interaction between physical and mental well-being, the ways in which that interaction may be experienced differently by gender, and the important role of social safety nets in prevention.

Monthly excess mortality across counties in the United States during the Covid-19 pandemic, March 2020 to February 2022.

Excess mortality is the difference between expected and observed mortality in a given period and has emerged as a leading measure of the overall impact of the Covid-19 pandemic that is not biased by differences in testing or cause-of-death assignment. Spatially and temporally granular estimates of excess mortality are needed to understand which areas have been most impacted by the pandemic, evaluate exacerbating and mitigating factors, and inform response efforts, including allocating resources to affected communities. We estimated all-cause excess mortality for the United States from March 2020 through February 2022 by county and month using a Bayesian hierarchical model trained on data from 2015 to 2019. An estimated 1,159,580 excess deaths occurred during the first two years of the pandemic (first: 620,872; second: 538,708). Overall, excess mortality decreased in large metropolitan counties, but increased in nonmetro counties, between the first and second years of the pandemic. Despite the initial concentration of mortality in large metropolitan Northeast counties, beginning in February 2021, nonmetro South counties had the highest cumulative relative excess mortality. These results highlight the need for investments in rural health as the pandemic's disproportionate impact on rural areas continues to grow.

The effect of Medicaid expansion on Medicaid participation, payer mix, and labor supply in primary care.

Evidence of increased health care utilization associated with the Medicaid expansion suggests that clinicians increased capacity to meet demand. However, little is known about the mechanism underlying this response. Using a novel source of all-payer data, we quantified clinicians' response to the Medicaid expansion - examining whether and how they changed their Medicaid participation decisions, payer mix, and overall labor supply. Primary care clinicians in expansion states provided an average of 49 additional appointments per year (a 21% relative increase) for patients insured by Medicaid, compared to clinicians in non-expansion states - with new-patient visits representing half (25 appointments) of this overall increase. Clinicians did not increase their labor supply to accommodate these additional appointments. They instead offset the 1.7 percentage point average increase in Medicaid payer mix with an equivalent reduction in commercial payer mix. However, this reduction in commercial patient share represented only a 2.8% relative decrease, with commercially insured patients still comprising the majority of the average clinician's patient panel. Subsample analyses revealed a larger increase in care for Medicaid patients among clinicians with high Medicaid participation preceding the eligibility expansion.