Novel methods for estimating the instantaneous and overall COVID-19 case fatality risk among care home residents in England.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had high mortality rates in the elderly and frail worldwide, particularly in care homes. This is driven by the difficulty of isolating care homes from the wider community, the large population sizes within care facilities (relative to typical households), and the age/frailty of the residents. To quantify the mortality risk posed by disease, the case fatality risk (CFR) is an important tool. This quantifies the proportion of cases that result in death. Throughout the pandemic, CFR amongst care home residents in England has been monitored closely. To estimate CFR, we apply both novel and existing methods to data on deaths in care homes, collected by Public Health England and the Care Quality Commission. We compare these different methods, evaluating their relative strengths and weaknesses. Using these methods, we estimate temporal trends in the instantaneous CFR (at both daily and weekly resolutions) and the overall CFR across the whole of England, and dis-aggregated at regional level. We also investigate how the CFR varies based on age and on the type of care required, dis-aggregating by whether care homes include nursing staff and by age of residents. This work has contributed to the summary of measures used for monitoring the UK epidemic.

Factors associated with return of home oral fluid kits by suspected cases of measles, cohort study, London and South East of England, 2016-2018.

A testing rate for measles above 80% is required by the WHO European Region Measles Elimination strategy to verify elimination. To comply with this rate, we explored factors associated with the return of oral fluid kits (OFK) by suspected measles cases. We described the cases and conducted a mixed-effects analysis to assess the relationship between socio-demographic and public health management characteristics and the likelihood of returning an OFK to the reference laboratory. Of 3,929 cases who were sent a postal OFK, 2,513 (67%) returned the kit. Adjusting for confounding, registration with a general practitioner (GP) (aOR:1.48, 95%CI:1.23-1.76) and living in a less deprived area (aOR:1.35, 95%CI:1.04-1.74) were associated with an increased likelihood of returning the OFK. The odds of returning the OFK also increased if the HPT contacted the parents/guardians of all cases prior to sending the kit and confirmed their address (aOR:2.01, 95%CI:1.17-3.42). Cases notified by a hospital (aOR:1.94, 95%CI:1.31-2.87) or GP (aOR:1.52; 95%CI:1.06-2.16) also had higher odds of returning the OFK. HPTs may want to consider these factors when managing suspected cases of measles since this may help in increasing the testing rates to the WHO-recommended level.

Workplace exposures associated with COVID-19: evidence from a case-control study with multiple sampling periods in England, August-October 2020.

We investigated risk factors associated with COVID-19 by conducting a retrospective, frequency-matched case-control study, with three sampling periods (August-October 2020). We compared cases completing routine contact tracing to asymptomatic population controls. Multivariable analyses estimated adjusted odds ratios (aORs) for non-household community settings. Meta-analyses using random effects provided pooled odds ratios (pORs). Working in healthcare (pOR 2.87; aORs 2.72, 2.81, 3.08, for study periods 1-3 respectively), social care (pOR 4.15; aORs 2.46, 5.06, 5.41, for study periods 1-3 respectively) or hospitality (pOR 2.36; aORs 2.01, 2.54, 2.63, for study periods 1-3 respectively) were associated with increased odds of being a COVID-19 case. Additionally, working in bars, pubs and restaurants, warehouse settings, construction, educational settings were significantly associated. While definitively determining where transmission occurs is impossible, we provide evidence that in certain sectors, the impact of mitigation measures may only be partial and reinforcement of measures should be considered in these settings.