Lessons from bright-spots for advancing knowledge exchange at the interface of marine science and policy.

Evidence-informed decision-making is in increasing demand given growing pressures on marine environments. A way to facilitate this is by knowledge exchange among marine scientists and decision-makers. While many barriers are reported in the literature, there are also examples whereby research has successfully informed marine decision-making (i.e., 'bright-spots'). Here, we identify and analyze 25 bright-spots from a wide range of marine fields, contexts, and locations to provide insights into how to improve knowledge exchange at the interface of marine science and policy. Through qualitative surveys we investigate what initiated the bright-spots, their goals, and approaches to knowledge exchange. We also seek to identify what outcomes/impacts have been achieved, the enablers of success, and what lessons can be learnt to guide future knowledge exchange efforts. Results show that a diversity of approaches were used for knowledge exchange, from consultative engagement to genuine knowledge co-production. We show that diverse successes at the interface of marine science and policy are achievable and include impacts on policy, people, and governance. Such successes were enabled by factors related to the actors, processes, support, context, and timing. For example, the importance of involving diverse actors and managing positive relationships is a key lesson for success. However, enabling routine success will require: 1) transforming the ways in which we train scientists to include a greater focus on interpersonal skills, 2) institutionalizing and supporting knowledge exchange activities in organizational agendas, 3) conceptualizing and implementing broader research impact metrics, and 4) transforming funding mechanisms to focus on need-based interventions, impact planning, and an acknowledgement of the required time and effort that underpin knowledge exchange activities.

Evolutionary principles and genetic considerations for guiding conservation interventions under climate change.

Impacts of climate change are apparent in natural systems around the world. Many species are and will continue to struggle to persist in their current location as their preferred environment changes. Traditional conservation efforts aiming to prevent local extinctions have focused on two aspects that theoretically enhance genetic diversity-population connectivity and population size-through 'passive interventions' (such as protected areas and connectivity corridors). However, the exceptionally rapid loss of biodiversity that we are experiencing as result of anthropogenic climate change has shifted conservation approaches to more 'active interventions' (such as rewilding, assisted gene flow, assisted evolution, artificial selection, genetic engineering). We integrate genetic/genomic approaches into an evolutionary biology framework in order to discuss with scientists, conservation managers and decision makers about the opportunities and risks of interventions that need careful consideration in order to avoid unwanted evolutionary outcomes.

Research priorities for natural ecosystems in a changing global climate.

Climate change poses significant emerging risks to biodiversity, ecosystem function and associated socioecological systems. Adaptation responses must be initiated in parallel with mitigation efforts, but resources are limited. As climate risks are not distributed equally across taxa, ecosystems and processes, strategic prioritization of research that addresses stakeholder-relevant knowledge gaps will accelerate effective uptake into adaptation policy and management action. After a decade of climate change adaptation research within the Australian National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, we synthesize the National Adaptation Research Plans for marine, terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. We identify the key, globally relevant priorities for ongoing research relevant to informing adaptation policy and environmental management aimed at maximizing the resilience of natural ecosystems to climate change. Informed by both global literature and an extensive stakeholder consultation across all ecosystems, sectors and regions in Australia, involving thousands of participants, we suggest 18 priority research topics based on their significance, urgency, technical and economic feasibility, existing knowledge gaps and potential for cobenefits across multiple sectors. These research priorities provide a unified guide for policymakers, funding organizations and researchers to strategically direct resources, maximize stakeholder uptake of resulting knowledge and minimize the impacts of climate change on natural ecosystems. Given the pace of climate change, it is imperative that we inform and accelerate adaptation progress in all regions around the world.

Trends in tuna carbon isotopes suggest global changes in pelagic phytoplankton communities.

Considerable uncertainty remains over how increasing atmospheric CO2 and anthropogenic climate changes are affecting open-ocean marine ecosystems from phytoplankton to top predators. Biological time series data are thus urgently needed for the world's oceans. Here, we use the carbon stable isotope composition of tuna to provide a first insight into the existence of global trends in complex ecosystem dynamics and changes in the oceanic carbon cycle. From 2000 to 2015, considerable declines in δ13 C values of 0.8‰-2.5‰ were observed across three tuna species sampled globally, with more substantial changes in the Pacific Ocean compared to the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. Tuna recorded not only the Suess effect, that is, fossil fuel-derived and isotopically light carbon being incorporated into marine ecosystems, but also recorded profound changes at the base of marine food webs. We suggest a global shift in phytoplankton community structure, for example, a reduction in 13 C-rich phytoplankton such as diatoms, and/or a change in phytoplankton physiology during this period, although this does not rule out other concomitant changes at higher levels in the food webs. Our study establishes tuna δ13 C values as a candidate essential ocean variable to assess complex ecosystem responses to climate change at regional to global scales and over decadal timescales. Finally, this time series will be invaluable in calibrating and validating global earth system models to project changes in marine biota.

Large-scale distribution of tuna species in a warming ocean.

Tuna are globally distributed species of major commercial importance and some tuna species are a major source of protein in many countries. Tuna are characterized by dynamic distribution patterns that respond to climate variability and long-term change. Here, we investigated the effect of environmental conditions on the worldwide distribution and relative abundance of six tuna species between 1958 and 2004 and estimated the expected end-of-the-century changes based on a high-greenhouse gas concentration scenario (RCP8.5). We created species distribution models using a long-term Japanese longline fishery dataset and two-step generalized additive models. Over the historical period, suitable habitats shifted poleward for 20 out of 22 tuna stocks, based on their gravity centre (GC) and/or one of their distribution limits. On average, tuna habitat distribution limits have shifted poleward 6.5 km per decade in the northern hemisphere and 5.5 km per decade in the southern hemisphere. Larger tuna distribution shifts and changes in abundance are expected in the future, especially by the end-of-the-century (2080-2099). Temperate tunas (albacore, Atlantic bluefin, and southern bluefin) and the tropical bigeye tuna are expected to decline in the tropics and shift poleward. In contrast, skipjack and yellowfin tunas are projected to become more abundant in tropical areas as well as in most coastal countries' exclusive economic zones (EEZ). These results provide global information on the potential effects of climate change in tuna populations and can assist countries seeking to minimize these effects via adaptive management.

Rapid shifts in distribution and high-latitude persistence of oceanographic habitat revealed using citizen science data from a climate change hotspot.

The environmental effects of climate change are predicted to cause distribution shifts in many marine taxa, yet data are often difficult to collect. Quantifying and monitoring species' suitable environmental habitats is a pragmatic approach for assessing changes in species distributions but is underdeveloped for quantifying climate change induced range shifts in marine systems. Specifically, habitat predictions present opportunities for quantifying spatiotemporal distribution changes while accounting for sources of natural climate variation. Here we demonstrate the utility of a marine-based habitat model parameterized using citizen science data and remotely sensed environmental covariates for quantifying shifts in oceanographic habitat suitability over 22 years for a coastal-pelagic fish species in a climate change hotspot. Our analyses account for the effects of natural intra- and interannual climate variability to reveal rapid poleward shifts in core (94.4 km/decade) and poleward edge (108.8 km/decade) oceanographic habitats. Temporal persistence of suitable oceanographic habitat at high latitudes also increased by approximately 3 months over the study period. Our approach demonstrates how marine citizen science data can be used to quantify range shifts, but necessitates shifting focus from species distributions directly, to the distribution of species' environmental habitat preferences.

Interdisciplinary knowledge exchange across scales in a globally changing marine environment.

The effects of anthropogenic global environmental change on biotic and abiotic processes have been reported in aquatic systems across the world. Complex synergies between concurrent environmental stressors and the resilience of the system to regime shifts, which vary in space and time, determine the capacity for marine systems to maintain structure and function with global environmental change. Consequently, an interdisciplinary approach that facilitates the development of new methods for the exchange of knowledge between scientists across multiple scales is required to effectively understand, quantify and predict climate impacts on marine ecosystem services. We use a literature review to assess the limitations and assumptions of current pathways to exchange interdisciplinary knowledge and the transferability of research findings across spatial and temporal scales and levels of biological organization to advance scientific understanding of global environmental change in marine systems. We found that species-specific regional scale climate change research is most commonly published, and "supporting" is the ecosystem service most commonly referred to in publications. In addition, our paper outlines a trajectory for the future development of integrated climate change science for sustaining marine ecosystem services such as investment in interdisciplinary education and connectivity between disciplines.

Going with the flow: the role of ocean circulation in global marine ecosystems under a changing climate.

Ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation and reduced productivity are widely considered to be the major stressors to ocean ecosystems induced by emissions of CO2 . However, an overlooked stressor is the change in ocean circulation in response to climate change. Strong changes in the intensity and position of the western boundary currents have already been observed, and the consequences of such changes for ecosystems are beginning to emerge. In this study, we address climatically induced changes in ocean circulation on a global scale but relevant to propagule dispersal for species inhabiting global shelf ecosystems, using a high-resolution global ocean model run under the IPCC RCP 8.5 scenario. The » degree model resolution allows improved regional realism of the ocean circulation beyond that of available CMIP5-class models. We use a Lagrangian approach forced by modelled ocean circulation to simulate the circulation pathways that disperse planktonic life stages. Based on trajectory backtracking, we identify present-day coastal retention, dominant flow and dispersal range for coastal regions at the global scale. Projecting into the future, we identify areas of the strongest projected circulation change and present regional examples with the most significant modifications in their dominant pathways. Climatically induced changes in ocean circulation should be considered as an additional stressor of marine ecosystems in a similar way to ocean warming or acidification.

Geographical gradients in selection can reveal genetic constraints for evolutionary responses to ocean acidification.

Geographical gradients in selection can shape different genetic architectures in natural populations, reflecting potential genetic constraints for adaptive evolution under climate change. Investigation of natural pH/pCO2 variation in upwelling regions reveals different spatio-temporal patterns of natural selection, generating genetic and phenotypic clines in populations, and potentially leading to local adaptation, relevant to understanding effects of ocean acidification (OA). Strong directional selection, associated with intense and continuous upwellings, may have depleted genetic variation in populations within these upwelling regions, favouring increased tolerances to low pH but with an associated cost in other traits. In contrast, diversifying or weak directional selection in populations with seasonal upwellings or outside major upwelling regions may have resulted in higher genetic variances and the lack of genetic correlations among traits. Testing this hypothesis in geographical regions with similar environmental conditions to those predicted under climate change will build insights into how selection may act in the future and how populations may respond to stressors such as OA.

From global to regional and back again: common climate stressors of marine ecosystems relevant for adaptation across five ocean warming hotspots.

Ocean warming 'hotspots' are regions characterized by above-average temperature increases over recent years, for which there are significant consequences for both living marine resources and the societies that depend on them. As such, they represent early warning systems for understanding the impacts of marine climate change, and test-beds for developing adaptation options for coping with those impacts. Here, we examine five hotspots off the coasts of eastern Australia, South Africa, Madagascar, India and Brazil. These particular hotspots have underpinned a large international partnership that is working towards improving community adaptation by characterizing, assessing and projecting the likely future of coastal-marine food resources through the provision and sharing of knowledge. To inform this effort, we employ a high-resolution global ocean model forced by Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and simulated to year 2099. In addition to the sea surface temperature, we analyse projected stratification, nutrient supply, primary production, anthropogenic CO2 -driven ocean acidification, deoxygenation and ocean circulation. Our simulation finds that the temperature-defined hotspots studied here will continue to experience warming but, with the exception of eastern Australia, may not remain the fastest warming ocean areas over the next century as the strongest warming is projected to occur in the subpolar and polar areas of the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, we find that recent rapid change in SST is not necessarily an indicator that these areas are also hotspots of the other climatic stressors examined. However, a consistent facet of the hotspots studied here is that they are all strongly influenced by ocean circulation, which has already shown changes in the recent past and is projected to undergo further strong change into the future. In addition to the fast warming, change in local ocean circulation represents a distinct feature of present and future climate change impacting marine ecosystems in these areas.

Species traits and climate velocity explain geographic range shifts in an ocean-warming hotspot.

Species' ranges are shifting globally in response to climate warming, with substantial variability among taxa, even within regions. Relationships between range dynamics and intrinsic species traits may be particularly apparent in the ocean, where temperature more directly shapes species' distributions. Here, we test for a role of species traits and climate velocity in driving range extensions in the ocean-warming hotspot of southeast Australia. Climate velocity explained some variation in range shifts, however, including species traits more than doubled the variation explained. Swimming ability, omnivory and latitudinal range size all had positive relationships with range extension rate, supporting hypotheses that increased dispersal capacity and ecological generalism promote extensions. We find independent support for the hypothesis that species with narrow latitudinal ranges are limited by factors other than climate. Our findings suggest that small-ranging species are in double jeopardy, with limited ability to escape warming and greater intrinsic vulnerability to stochastic disturbances.

Reassessing regime shifts in the North Pacific: incremental climate change and commercial fishing are necessary for explaining decadal-scale biological variability.

In areas of the North Pacific that are largely free of overfishing, climate regime shifts - abrupt changes in modes of low-frequency climate variability - are seen as the dominant drivers of decadal-scale ecological variability. We assessed the ability of leading modes of climate variability [Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), Pacific-North American Pattern (PNA), North Pacific Index (NPI), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)] to explain decadal-scale (1965-2008) patterns of climatic and biological variability across two North Pacific ecosystems (Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea). Our response variables were the first principle component (PC1) of four regional climate parameters [sea surface temperature (SST), sea level pressure (SLP), freshwater input, ice cover], and PCs 1-2 of 36 biological time series [production or abundance for populations of salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), groundfish, herring (Clupea pallasii), shrimp, and jellyfish]. We found that the climate modes alone could not explain ecological variability in the study region. Both linear models (for climate PC1) and generalized additive models (for biology PC1-2) invoking only the climate modes produced residuals with significant temporal trends, indicating that the models failed to capture coherent patterns of ecological variability. However, when the residual climate trend and a time series of commercial fishery catches were used as additional candidate variables, resulting models of biology PC1-2 satisfied assumptions of independent residuals and out-performed models constructed from the climate modes alone in terms of predictive power. As measured by effect size and Akaike weights, the residual climate trend was the most important variable for explaining biology PC1 variability, and commercial catch the most important variable for biology PC2. Patterns of climate sensitivity and exploitation history for taxa strongly associated with biology PC1-2 suggest plausible mechanistic explanations for these modeling results. Our findings suggest that, even in the absence of overfishing and in areas strongly influenced by internal climate variability, climate regime shift effects can only be understood in the context of other ecosystem perturbations.

A marine heatwave drives significant shifts in pelagic microbiology.

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) cause disruption to marine ecosystems, deleteriously impacting macroflora and fauna. However, effects on microorganisms are relatively unknown despite ocean temperature being a major determinant of assemblage structure. Using data from thousands of Southern Hemisphere samples, we reveal that during an "unprecedented" 2015/16 Tasman Sea MHW, temperatures approached or surpassed the upper thermal boundary of many endemic taxa. Temperate microbial assemblages underwent a profound transition to niche states aligned with sites over 1000 km equatorward, adapting to higher temperatures and lower nutrient conditions bought on by the MHW. MHW conditions also modulate seasonal patterns of microbial diversity and support novel assemblage compositions. The most significant affects of MHWs on microbial assemblages occurred during warmer months, when temperatures exceeded the upper climatological bounds. Trends in microbial response across several MHWs in different locations suggest these are emergent properties of temperate ocean warming, which may facilitate monitoring, prediction and adaptation efforts.

Global impacts of marine heatwaves on coastal foundation species.

With increasingly intense marine heatwaves affecting nearshore regions, foundation species are coming under increasing stress. To better understand their impacts, we examine responses of critical, habitat-forming foundation species (macroalgae, seagrass, corals) to marine heatwaves in 1322 shallow coastal areas located across 85 marine ecoregions. We find compelling evidence that intense, summer marine heatwaves play a significant role in the decline of foundation species globally. Critically, detrimental effects increase towards species warm-range edges and over time. We also identify several ecoregions where foundation species don't respond to marine heatwaves, suggestive of some resilience to warming events. Cumulative marine heatwave intensity, absolute temperature, and location within a species' range are key factors mediating impacts. Our results suggest many coastal ecosystems are losing foundation species, potentially impacting associated biodiversity, ecological function, and ecosystem services provision. Understanding relationships between marine heatwaves and foundation species offers the potential to predict impacts that are critical for developing management and adaptation approaches.

Vertical structures of marine heatwaves.

A marine heatwave (MHW) is typically defined as an anomalous warm event in the surface ocean, with wide-ranging impacts on marine and socio-economic systems. The surface warming associated with MHWs can penetrate into the deep ocean; however, the vertical structure of MHWs is poorly known in the global ocean. Here, we identify four main types of MHWs with different vertical structures using Argo profiles: shallow, subsurface-reversed, subsurface-intensified, and deep MHWs. These MHW types are characterized by different spatial distributions with hotspots of subsurface-reversed and subsurface-intensified MHWs at low latitudes and shallow and deep MHWs at middle-high latitudes. These vertical structures are influenced by ocean dynamical processes, including oceanic planetary waves, boundary currents, eddies, and mixing. The area and depth of all types of MHWs exhibit significant increasing trends over the past two decades. These results contribute to a better understanding of the physical drivers and ecological impacts of MHWs in a warming climate.

Individual consistency in the localised foraging behaviour of shy albatross (Thalassarche cauta).

Quantifying the intra- and interindividual variation that exists within a population can provide meaningful insights into a population's vulnerability and response to rapid environmental change. We characterise the foraging behaviour of 308 trips taken by 96 shy albatross (Thalassarche cauta) from Albatross Island across seven consecutive years. At a population level, incubating shy albatross exploited a consistent area within ca. 500 km radius of their breeding colony. During half of the trips, individuals utilised the closest shelf break to the west of the colony, where upwelling events have been reported. The other half of the trips were exclusively within the neritic zone, utilising a variety of locations within the Bass Strait. Furthermore, we found evidence of individual consistency to geographic locations, with subsequent trips by an individual more similar than random trips from all individuals in our data, both within and between years (G-test, p < .05). Between-individual variation in foraging behaviour was not meaningfully explained by age (linear regression, p > .05) or sex (t-test, p > .05) for any metric, suggesting that other intrinsic individual factors are accounting for between-individual variation in foraging trips. A localised foraging distribution is unusual for albatross, which, combined with high variation in space use between individuals demonstrated here, suggests that this species is accessing adequate resources near the colony. Overall, these findings suggest that incubating shy albatross from Albatross Island exhibit tendencies of a generalist population comprised of uniquely specialised individuals. These results suggest that this species is operating below its biological capacity in this fast-warming area and provide a baseline from which to assess future change.

Biological Impacts of Marine Heatwaves.

Climatic extremes are becoming increasingly common against a background trend of global warming. In the oceans, marine heatwaves (MHWs)-discrete periods of anomalously warm water-have intensified and become more frequent over the past century, impacting the integrity of marine ecosystems globally. We review and synthesize current understanding of MHW impacts at the individual, population, and community levels. We then examine how these impacts affect broader ecosystem services and discuss the current state of research on biological impacts of MHWs. Finally, we explore current and emergent approaches to predicting the occurrence andimpacts of future events, along with adaptation and management approaches. With further increases in intensity and frequency projected for coming decades, MHWs are emerging as pervasive stressors to marine ecosystems globally. A deeper mechanistic understanding of their biological impacts is needed to better predict and adapt to increased MHW activity in the Anthropocene.