Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy.

Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it  provides1,2. Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity3; however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge4. Here we use an ensemble of land-use and biodiversity models to assess whether-and how-humanity can reverse the declines in terrestrial biodiversity caused by habitat conversion, which is a major threat to biodiversity5. We show that immediate efforts, consistent with the broader sustainability agenda but of unprecedented ambition and coordination, could enable the provision of food for the growing human population while reversing the global terrestrial biodiversity trends caused by habitat conversion. If we decide to increase the extent of land under conservation management, restore degraded land and generalize landscape-level conservation planning, biodiversity trends from habitat conversion could become positive by the mid-twenty-first century on average across models (confidence interval, 2042-2061), but this was not the case for all models. Food prices could increase and, on average across models, almost half (confidence interval, 34-50%) of the future biodiversity losses could not be avoided. However, additionally tackling the drivers of land-use change could avoid conflict with affordable food provision and reduces the environmental effects of the food-provision system. Through further sustainable intensification and trade, reduced food waste and more plant-based human diets, more than two thirds of future biodiversity losses are avoided and the biodiversity trends from habitat conversion are reversed by 2050 for almost all of the models. Although limiting further loss will remain challenging in several biodiversity-rich regions, and other threats-such as climate change-must be addressed to truly reverse the declines in biodiversity, our results show that ambitious conservation efforts and food system transformation are central to an effective post-2020 biodiversity strategy.

Wilderness areas halve the extinction risk of terrestrial biodiversity.

Reducing the rate of global biodiversity loss is a major challenge facing humanity1, as the consequences of biological annihilation would be irreversible for humankind2-4. Although the ongoing degradation of ecosystems5,6 and the extinction of species that comprise them7,8 are now well-documented, little is known about the role that remaining wilderness areas have in mitigating the global biodiversity crisis. Here we model the persistence probability of biodiversity, combining habitat condition with spatial variation in species composition, to show that retaining these remaining wilderness areas is essential for the international conservation agenda. Wilderness areas act as a buffer against species loss, as the extinction risk for species within wilderness communities is-on average-less than half that of species in non-wilderness communities. Although all wilderness areas have an intrinsic conservation value9,10, we identify the areas on every continent that make the highest relative contribution to the persistence of biodiversity. Alarmingly, these areas-in which habitat loss would have a more-marked effect on biodiversity-are poorly protected. Given globally high rates of wilderness loss10, these areas urgently require targeted protection to ensure the long-term persistence of biodiversity, alongside efforts to protect and restore more-degraded environments.

Reconciling global priorities for conserving biodiversity habitat.

Degradation and loss of natural habitat is the major driver of the current global biodiversity crisis. Most habitat conservation efforts to date have targeted small areas of highly threatened habitat, but emerging debate suggests that retaining large intact natural systems may be just as important. We reconcile these perspectives by integrating fine-resolution global data on habitat condition and species assemblage turnover to identify Earth's high-value biodiversity habitat. These are areas in better condition than most other locations predicted to have once supported a similar assemblage of species and are found within both intact regions and human-dominated landscapes. However, only 18.6% of this high-value habitat is currently protected globally. Averting permanent biodiversity loss requires clear, spatially explicit targets for retaining these unprotected high-value habitats.

A detrimental role of RelB in mature oligodendrocytes during experimental acute encephalomyelitis.

BACKGROUND: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an autoimmune demyelinating disease of the central nervous system (CNS). It is firmly established that overactivation of the p65 (RelA) nuclear factor kappa B (NF-κB) transcription factor upregulates expression of inflammatory mediators in both immune and non-immune resident CNS cells and promotes inflammation during MS. In contrast to p65, NF-κB family member RelB regulates immune cell development and can limit inflammation. Although RelB expression is induced during inflammation in the CNS, its role in MS remains unknown. METHODS: To examine the role of RelB in non-immune CNS cells, we generated mice with RelB specifically deleted in astrocytes (RelBΔAST), oligodendrocytes (RelBΔOLIGO), or neural progenitor-derived cells (RelBΔNP). We used experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE), an accepted mouse model of MS, to assess the effect of RelB deletion on disease outcomes and performed analysis on the histological, cellular, and molecular level. RESULTS: Despite being a negative regulator of inflammation, conditional knockout of RelB in non-immune resident CNS cells surprisingly decreased the severity of EAE. This protective effect was recapitulated by conditional deletion of RelB in oligodendrocytes but not astrocytes. Deletion of RelB in oligodendrocytes reduced disease severity, promoted survival of mature oligodendrocytes, and correlated with increased activation of p65 NF-κB. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that RelB fine tunes inflammation and cell death/survival during EAE. Importantly, our data points out the detrimental role RelB plays in controlling survival of mature oligodendrocytes, which could be explored as a viable option to treat MS in the future.

Projecting impacts of global climate and land-use scenarios on plant biodiversity using compositional-turnover modelling.

Nations have committed to ambitious conservation targets in response to accelerating rates of global biodiversity loss. Anticipating future impacts is essential to inform policy decisions for achieving these targets, but predictions need to be of sufficiently high spatial resolution to forecast the local effects of global change. As part of the intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, we present a fine-resolution assessment of trends in the persistence of global plant biodiversity. We coupled generalized dissimilarity models, fitted to >52 million records of >254 thousand plant species, with the species-area relationship, to estimate the effect of land-use and climate change on global biodiversity persistence. We estimated that the number of plant species committed to extinction over the long term has increased by 60% globally between 1900 and 2015 (from ~10,000 to ~16,000). This number is projected to decrease slightly by 2050 under the most optimistic scenario of land-use change and to substantially increase (to ~18,000) under the most pessimistic scenario. This means that, in the absence of climate change, scenarios of sustainable socio-economic development can potentially bring extinction risk back to pre-2000 levels. Alarmingly, under all scenarios, the additional impact from climate change might largely surpass that of land-use change. In this case, the estimated number of species committed to extinction increases by 3.7-4.5 times compared to land-use-only projections. African regions (especially central and southern) are expected to suffer some of the highest impacts into the future, while biodiversity decline in Southeast Asia (which has previously been among the highest globally) is projected to slow down. Our results suggest that environmentally sustainable land-use planning alone might not be sufficient to prevent potentially dramatic biodiversity loss, unless a stabilization of climate to pre-industrial times is observed.

From video recordings to whisker stable isotopes: a critical evaluation of timescale in assessing individual foraging specialisation in Australian fur seals.

Estimating the degree of individual specialisation is likely to be sensitive to the methods used, as they record individuals' resource use over different time-periods. We combined animal-borne video cameras, GPS/TDR loggers and stable isotope values of plasma, red cells and sub-sampled whiskers to investigate individual foraging specialisation in female Australian fur seals (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus) over various timescales. Combining these methods enabled us to (1) provide quantitative information on individuals' diet, allowing the identification of prey, (2) infer the temporal consistency of individual specialisation, and (3) assess how different methods and timescales affect our estimation of the degree of specialisation. Short-term inter-individual variation in diet was observed in the video data (mean pairwise overlap = 0.60), with the sampled population being composed of both generalist and specialist individuals (nested network). However, the brevity of the temporal window is likely to artificially increase the level of specialisation by not recording the entire diet of seals. Indeed, the correlation in isotopic values was tighter between the red cells and whiskers (mid- to long-term foraging ecology) than between plasma and red cells (short- to mid-term) (R(2) = 0.93-0.73 vs. 0.55-0.41). δ(13)C and δ(15)N values of whiskers confirmed the temporal consistency of individual specialisation. Variation in isotopic niche was consistent across seasons and years, indicating long-term habitat (WIC/TNW = 0.28) and dietary (WIC/TNW = 0.39) specialisation. The results also highlight time-averaging issues (under-estimation of the degree of specialisation) when calculating individual specialisation indices over long time-periods, so that no single timescale may provide a complete and accurate picture, emphasising the benefits of using complementary methods.

Prediction of viral spillover risk based on the mass action principle.

Infectious zoonotic disease emergence, through spillover events, is of global concern and has the potential to cause significant harm to society, as recently demonstrated by COVID-19. More than 70% of the 400 infectious diseases that emerged in the past five decades have a zoonotic origin, including all recent pandemics. There have been several approaches used to predict the risk of spillover through some of the known or suspected infectious disease emergence drivers, largely using correlative approaches. Here, we predict the spatial distribution of spillover risk by approximating general transmission through animal and human interactions. These mass action interactions are approximated through the multiplication of the spatial distribution of zoonotic virus diversity and human population density. Although our results indicate higher risk in regions along the equator and in Southeast Asia where both virus diversity and human population density are high, it should be noted that this is primarily a conceptual exercise. We compared our spillover risk map to key factors, including the model inputs of zoonotic virus diversity estimate map, human population density map, and the spatial distribution of species richness. Despite the limitations of this approach, this viral spillover map is a step towards developing a more comprehensive spillover risk prediction system to inform global monitoring.

Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050.

Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Japanese Encephalitis Enzootic and Epidemic Risks across Australia.

Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is an arboviral, encephalitogenic, zoonotic flavivirus characterized by its complex epidemiology whose transmission cycle involves reservoir and amplifying hosts, competent vector species and optimal environmental conditions. Although typically endemic in Asia and parts of the Pacific Islands, unprecedented outbreaks in both humans and domestic pigs in southeastern Australia emphasize the virus' expanding geographical range. To estimate areas at highest risk of JEV transmission in Australia, ecological niche models of vectors and waterbirds, a sample of piggery coordinates and feral pig population density models were combined using mathematical and geospatial mapping techniques. These results highlight that both coastal and inland regions across the continent are estimated to have varying risks of enzootic and/or epidemic JEV transmission. We recommend increased surveillance of waterbirds, feral pigs and mosquito populations in areas where domestic pigs and human populations are present.

Estimating the Distribution of Japanese Encephalitis Vectors in Australia Using Ecological Niche Modelling.

Recent Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) outbreaks in southeastern Australia have sparked interest into epidemiological factors surrounding the virus' novel emergence in this region. Here, the geographic distribution of mosquito species known to be competent JEV vectors in the country was estimated by combining known mosquito occurrences and ecological drivers of distribution to reveal insights into communities at highest risk of infectious disease transmission. Species distribution models predicted that Culex annulirostris and Culex sitiens presence was mostly likely along Australia's eastern and northern coastline, while Culex quinquefasciatus presence was estimated to be most likely near inland regions of southern Australia as well as coastal regions of Western Australia. While Culex annulirostris is considered the dominant JEV vector in Australia, our ecological niche models emphasise the need for further entomological surveillance and JEV research within Australia.

Influence of environmental variation on spatial distribution and habitat-use in a benthic foraging marine predator.

The highly dynamic nature of the marine environment can have a substantial influence on the foraging behaviour and spatial distribution of marine predators, particularly in pelagic marine systems. However, knowledge of the susceptibility of benthic marine predators to environmental variability is limited. This study investigated the influence of local-scale environmental conditions and large-scale climate indices on the spatial distribution and habitat use in the benthic foraging Australian fur seal (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus; AUFS). Female AUFS provisioning pups were instrumented with GPS or ARGOS platform terminal transmitter tags during the austral winters of 2001-2019 at Kanowna Island, south-eastern Australia. Individuals were most susceptible to changes in the Southern Oscillation Index that measures the strength of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, with larger foraging ranges, greater distances travelled and more dispersed movement associated with 1-yr lagged La Niña-like conditions. Additionally, the total distance travelled was negatively correlated with the current year sea surface temperature and 1-yr lagged Indian Ocean Dipole, and positively correlated with 1-yr lagged chlorophyll-a concentration. These results suggest that environmental variation may influence the spatial distribution and availability of prey, even within benthic marine systems.

Annual changes in the Biodiversity Intactness Index in tropical and subtropical forest biomes, 2001-2012.

Few biodiversity indicators are available that reflect the state of broad-sense biodiversity-rather than of particular taxa-at fine spatial and temporal resolution. One such indicator, the Biodiversity Intactness Index (BII), estimates how the average abundance of the native terrestrial species in a region compares with their abundances in the absence of pronounced human impacts. We produced annual maps of modelled BII at 30-arc-second resolution (roughly 1 km at the equator) across tropical and subtropical forested biomes, by combining annual data on land use, human population density and road networks, and statistical models of how these variables affect overall abundance and compositional similarity of plants, fungi, invertebrates and vertebrates. Across tropical and subtropical biomes, BII fell by an average of 1.9 percentage points between 2001 and 2012, with 81 countries seeing an average reduction and 43 an average increase; the extent of primary forest fell by 3.9% over the same period. We did not find strong relationships between changes in BII and countries' rates of economic growth over the same period; however, limitations in mapping BII in plantation forests may hinder our ability to identify these relationships. This is the first time temporal change in BII has been estimated across such a large region.

Influence of hunting strategy on foraging efficiency in Galapagos sea lions.

The endangered Galapagos sea lion (GSL, Zalophus wollebaeki) exhibits a range of foraging strategies utilising various dive types including benthic, epipelagic and mesopelagic dives. In the present study, potential prey captures (PPC), prey energy consumption and energy expenditure in lactating adult female GSLs (n = 9) were examined to determine their foraging efficiency relative to the foraging strategy used. Individuals displayed four dive types: (a) epipelagic (<100 m; EP); or (b) mesopelagic (>100 m; MP) with a characteristic V-shape or U-shape diving profile; and (c) shallow benthic (<100 m; SB) or (d) deep benthic (>100 m; DB) with square or flat-bottom dive profiles. These dive types varied in the number of PPC, assumed prey types, and the energy expended. Prey items and their energetic value were assumed from previous GSL diet studies in combination with common habitat and depth ranges of the prey. In comparison to pelagic dives occurring at similar depths, when diving benthically, GSLs had both higher prey energy consumption and foraging energy expenditure whereas PPC rate was lower. Foraging efficiency varied across dive types, with benthic dives being more profitable than pelagic dives. Three foraging trip strategies were identified and varied relative to prey energy consumed, energy expended, and dive behaviour. Foraging efficiency did not significantly vary among the foraging trip strategies suggesting that, while individuals may diverge into different foraging habitats, they are optimal within them. These findings indicate that these three strategies will have different sensitivities to habitat-specific fluctuations due to environmental change.

Intertrip consistency in hunting behavior improves foraging success and efficiency in a marine top predator.

Substantial variation in foraging strategies can exist within populations, even those typically regarded as generalists. Specializations arise from the consistent exploitation of a narrow behavioral, spatial or dietary niche over time, which may reduce intraspecific competition and influence adaptability to environmental change. However, few studies have investigated whether behavioral consistency confers benefits at the individual and/or population level. While still recovering from commercial sealing overexploitation, Australian fur seals (AUFS; Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus) represent the largest marine predator biomass in south-eastern Australia. During lactation, female AUFS adopt a central-place foraging strategy and are, thus, vulnerable to changes in prey availability. The present study investigated the population-level repeatability and individual consistency in foraging behavior of 34 lactating female AUFS at a south-east Australian breeding colony between 2006 and 2019. Additionally, the influence of individual-level behavioral consistency on indices of foraging success and efficiency during benthic diving was determined. Low to moderate population-level repeatability was observed across foraging behaviors, with the greatest repeatability in the mean bearing and modal dive depth. Individual-level consistency was greatest for the proportion of benthic diving, total distance travelled, and trip duration. Indices of benthic foraging success and efficiency were positively influenced by consistency in the proportion of benthic diving, trip duration and dive rate but not influenced by consistency in bearing to most distal point, dive depth or foraging site fidelity. The results of the present study provide evidence of the benefits of consistency for individuals, which may have flow-on effects at the population level.

The cost of a meal: factors influencing prey profitability in Australian fur seals.

Knowledge of the factors shaping the foraging behaviour of species is central to understanding their ecosystem role and predicting their response to environmental variability. To maximise survival and reproduction, foraging strategies must balance the costs and benefits related to energy needed to pursue, manipulate, and consume prey with the nutritional reward obtained. While such information is vital for understanding how changes in prey assemblages may affect predators, determining these components is inherently difficult in cryptic predators. The present study used animal-borne video data loggers to investigate the costs and benefits related to different prey types for female Australian fur seals (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus), a primarily benthic foraging species in the low productivity Bass Strait, south-eastern Australia. A total of 1,263 prey captures, resulting from 2,027 prey detections, were observed in 84.5 h of video recordings from 23 individuals. Substantial differences in prey pursuit and handling times, gross energy gain and total energy expenditure were observed between prey types. Importantly, the profitability of prey was not significantly different between prey types, with the exception of elasmobranchs. This study highlights the benefit of animal-borne video data loggers for understanding the factors that influence foraging decisions in predators. Further studies incorporating search times for different prey types would further elucidate how profitability differs with prey type.

Environmental influences on foraging effort, success and efficiency in female Australian fur seals.

Understanding the factors which influence foraging behaviour and success in marine mammals is crucial to predicting how their populations may respond to environmental change. The Australian fur seal (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus, AUFS) is a predominantly benthic forager on the shallow continental shelf of Bass Strait, and represents the greatest biomass of marine predators in south-eastern Australia. The south-east Australian region is experiencing rapid oceanic warming, predicted to lead to substantial alterations in prey diversity, distribution and abundance. In the present study, foraging effort and indices of foraging success and efficiency were investigated in 138 adult female AUFS (970 foraging trips) during the winters of 1998-2019. Large scale climate conditions had a strong influence on foraging effort, foraging success and efficiency. Foraging effort and foraging success were also strongly influenced by winter chlorophyll-a concentrations and sea-surface height anomalies in Bass Strait. The results suggest increasing foraging effort and decreasing foraging success and efficiency under anticipated environmental conditions, which may have population-level impacts.

Departure time influences foraging associations in little penguins.

Recent studies have documented that little penguins (Eudyptula minor) associate at sea, displaying synchronised diving behaviour throughout a foraging trip. However, previous observations were limited to a single foraging trip where only a small number of individuals were simultaneously tracked. Consequently, it is not known whether coordinated behaviour is consistent over time, or what factors influence it. In the present study, breeding adults were concurrently instrumented with GPS and dive behaviour data loggers for at least 2 consecutive foraging trips during guard and post-guard stage at two breeding colonies (London Bridge and Gabo Island, south-eastern Australia) of contrasting population size (approximately 100 and 30,000-40,000, respectively). At both colonies, individuals were sampled in areas of comparable nesting density and spatial area. At London Bridge, where individuals use a short (23 m) common pathway from their nests to the shoreline, > 90% (n = 42) of birds displayed foraging associations and 53-60% (n = 20) maintained temporally consistent associations with the same conspecifics. Neither intrinsic (sex, size or body condition) nor extrinsic (nest proximity) factors were found to influence foraging associations. However, individuals that departed from the colony at a similar time were more likely to associate during a foraging trip. At Gabo Island, where individuals use a longer (116 m) pathway with numerous tributaries to reach the shoreline, few individuals (< 31%; n = 13) from neighbouring nests associated at sea and only 1% (n = 1) maintained associations over subsequent trips. However, data from animal-borne video cameras indicated individuals at this colony displayed foraging associations of similar group size to those at London Bridge. This study reveals that group foraging behaviour occurs at multiple colonies and the pathways these individuals traverse with conspecifics may facilitate opportunistic group formation and resulting in foraging associations irrespective of nesting proximity and other factors.

Combined bio-logging and stable isotopes reveal individual specialisations in a benthic coastal seabird, the Kerguelen shag.

Individual specialisations, which involve the repetition of specific behaviours or dietary choices over time, have been suggested to benefit animals by avoiding competition with conspecifics and increasing individual foraging efficiency. Among seabirds, resident and benthic species are thought to be good models to study inter-individual variation as they repetitively exploit the same environment. We investigated foraging behaviour, isotopic niche and diet in the Kerguelen shag Phalacrocorax verrucosus during both the incubation and chick-rearing periods for the same individuals to determine the effect of sex, breeding stage, body mass and morphometrics on mean foraging metrics and their consistency. There were large differences between individuals in foraging behaviour and consistency, with strong individual specialisations in dive depths and heading from the colony. Stable isotopes revealed specialisations in feeding strategies, across multiple temporal scales. Specifically, individuals showed medium term specialisations in feeding strategies during the breeding season, as well as long-term consistency. A clustering analysis revealed 4 different foraging strategies displaying significantly different δ15N values and body masses. There were no sex or stage biases to clusters and individuals in different clusters did not differ in their morphology. Importantly, the results suggest that the different strategies emphasized were related to individual prey preferences rather than intrinsic characteristics.