Interpretable machine learning based on CT-derived extracellular volume fraction to predict pathological grading of hepatocellular carcinoma.

PURPOSE: To develop a non-invasive auxiliary assessment method based on CT-derived extracellular volume (ECV) to predict the pathological grading (PG) of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). METHODS: The study retrospectively analyzed 238 patients who underwent HCC resection surgery between January 2013 and April 2023. Six machine learning algorithms were employed to construct predictive models for HCC PG: logistic regression, extreme gradient boosting, Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), random forest, adaptive boosting, and Gaussian naive Bayes. Model performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, including area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and F1 score. Calibration plots were used for visual evaluation of model calibration. Clinical decision curve analysis was performed to assess potential clinical utility by calculating net benefit. RESULTS: 166 patients from Hospital A were allocated to the training set, while 72 patients from Hospital B (constituting 30.25% of the total sample) were assigned to the test set. The model achieved an AUC of 1.000 (95%CI: 1.000-1.000) in the training set and 0.927 (95%CI: 0.837-0.999) in the validation set, respectively. Ultimately, the model achieved an AUC of 0.909 (95%CI: 0.837-0.980) in the test set, with an accuracy of 0.778, sensitivity of 0.906, specificity of 0.789, negative predictive value of 0.556, and F1 score of 0.908. CONCLUSION: This study successfully developed and validated a non-invasive auxiliary assessment method based on CT-derived ECV to predict the HCC PG, providing important supplementary information for clinical decision-making.

Radiogenomics nomogram based on MRI and microRNAs to predict microvascular invasion of hepatocellular carcinoma.

Purpose: This study aimed to develop and validate a radiogenomics nomogram for predicting microvascular invasion (MVI) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) on the basis of MRI and microRNAs (miRNAs). Materials and methods: This cohort study included 168 patients (training cohort: n = 116; validation cohort: n = 52) with pathologically confirmed HCC, who underwent preoperative MRI and plasma miRNA examination. Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were used to identify independent risk factors associated with MVI. These risk factors were used to produce a nomogram. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis, sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and F1-score. Decision curve analysis was performed to determine whether the nomogram was clinically useful. Results: The independent risk factors for MVI were maximum tumor length, rad-score, and miRNA-21 (all P < 0.001). The sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and F1-score of the nomogram in the validation cohort were 0.970, 0.722, 0.884, and 0.916, respectively. The AUC of the nomogram was 0.900 (95% CI: 0.808-0.992) in the validation cohort, higher than that of any other single factor model (maximum tumor length, rad-score, and miRNA-21). Conclusion: The radiogenomics nomogram shows satisfactory predictive performance in predicting MVI in HCC and provides a feasible and practical reference for tumor treatment decisions.