Health technology assessment of diagnostic tests: a state of the art review of methods guidance from international organizations.

OBJECTIVES: To identify which international health technology assessment (HTA) agencies are undertaking evaluations of medical tests, summarize commonalities and differences in methodological approach, and highlight examples of good practice. METHODS: A methodological review incorporating: systematic identification of HTA guidance documents mentioning evaluation of tests; identification of key contributing organizations and abstraction of approaches to all essential HTA steps; summary of similarities and differences between organizations; and identification of important emergent themes which define the current state of the art and frontiers where further development is needed. RESULTS: Seven key organizations were identified from 216 screened. The main themes were: elucidation of claims of test benefits; attitude to direct and indirect evidence of clinical effectiveness (including evidence linkage); searching; quality assessment; and health economic evaluation. With the exception of dealing with test accuracy data, approaches were largely based on general approaches to HTA with few test-specific modifications. Elucidation of test claims and attitude to direct and indirect evidence are where we identified the biggest dissimilarities in approach. CONCLUSIONS: There is consensus on some aspects of HTA of tests, such as dealing with test accuracy, and examples of good practice which HTA organizations new to test evaluation can emulate. The focus on test accuracy contrasts with universal acknowledgment that it is not a sufficient evidence base for test evaluation. There are frontiers where methodological development is urgently required, notably integrating direct and indirect evidence and standardizing approaches to evidence linkage.

An evaluation of a national mass media campaign to raise public awareness of possible lung cancer symptoms in England in 2016 and 2017.

BACKGROUND: A two-phase 'respiratory symptoms' mass media campaign was conducted in 2016 and 2017 in England raising awareness of cough and worsening shortness of breath as symptoms warranting a general practitioner (GP) visit. METHOD: A prospectively planned pre-post evaluation was done using routinely collected data on 15 metrics, including GP attendance, GP referral, emergency presentations, cancers diagnosed (five metrics), cancer stage, investigations (two metrics), outpatient attendances, inpatient admissions, major lung resections and 1-year survival. The primary analysis compared 2015 with 2017. Trends in metrics over the whole period were also considered. The effects of the campaign on awareness of lung cancer symptoms were evaluated using bespoke surveys. RESULTS: There were small favourable statistically significant and clinically important changes over 2 years in 11 of the 15 metrics measured, including a 2.11% (95% confidence interval 1.02-3.20, p < 0.001) improvement in the percentage of lung cancers diagnosed at an early stage. However, these changes were not accompanied by increases in GP attendances. Furthermore, the time trends showed a gradual change in the metrics rather than steep changes occurring during or after the campaigns. CONCLUSION: There were small positive changes in most metrics relating to lung cancer diagnosis after this campaign. However, the pattern over time challenges whether the improvements are wholly attributable to the campaign. Given the importance of education on cancer in its own right, raising awareness of symptoms should remain important. However further research is needed to maximise the effect on health outcomes.

Variation in Model-Based Economic Evaluations of Low-Dose Computed Tomography Screening for Lung Cancer: A Methodological Review.

OBJECTIVES: There is significant heterogeneity in the results of published model-based economic evaluations of low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) screening for lung cancer. We sought to understand and demonstrate how these models differ. METHODS: An expansion and update of a previous systematic review (N = 19). Databases (including MEDLINE and Embase) were searched. Studies were included if strategies involving (single or multiple) LDCT screening were compared with no screening or other imaging modalities, in a population at risk of lung cancer. More detailed data extraction of studies from the previous review was conducted. Studies were critically appraised using the Consensus Health Economic Criteria list. RESULTS: A total of 16 new studies met the inclusion criteria, giving a total of 35 studies. There are geographic and temporal differences and differences in screening intervals and eligible populations. Studies varied in the types of models used, for example, decision tree, Markov, and microsimulation models. Most conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis (using life-years gained) or cost-utility analysis. The potential for overdiagnosis was considered in many models, unlike with other potential consequences of screening. Some studies report considering lead-time bias, but fewer mention length bias. Generally, the more recent studies, involving more complex modeling, tended to meet more of the critical appraisal criteria, with notable exceptions. CONCLUSIONS: There are many differences across the economic evaluations contributing to variation in estimates of the cost-effectiveness of LDCT screening for lung cancer. Several methodological factors and evidence needs have been highlighted that will require consideration in future economic evaluations to achieve better agreement.

A prospective evaluation of the fourth national Be Clear on Cancer 'Blood in Pee' campaign in England.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of the fourth Be Clear on Cancer (BCoC) 'Blood in Pee' (BiP) campaign (July to September 2018) on bladder and kidney cancer symptom awareness and outcomes in England. METHODS: In this uncontrolled before and after study, symptom awareness and reported barriers to GP attendance were assessed using panel and one-to-one interviews. The Health Improvement Network (THIN), National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service (NCRAS) and NHS Cancer Waiting Times (CWT) data were analysed to assess the impact on GP attendances, urgent cancer referrals, cancer diagnoses and 1-year survival. Analyses used Poisson, negative binomial and Cox regression. RESULTS: Symptom awareness and intention to consult a GP after one episode of haematuria increased following the campaign. GP attendance with haematuria (rate ratio (RR) 1.17, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.07-1.28) and urgent cancer referrals (RR 1.18 95% CI: 1.08-1.28) increased following the campaign. Early-stage diagnoses increased for bladder cancer (difference in percentage 2.8%, 95% CI: -0.2%-5.8%), but not for kidney cancer (difference -0.6%, 95% CI: -3.2%-2.1%). CONCLUSIONS: The fourth BCoC BiP campaign appears to have been effective in increasing bladder cancer symptom awareness and GP attendances, although long-term impacts are unclear.

The International Collaboration for Cancer Classification and Research.

Gaps in the translation of research findings to clinical management have been recognized for decades. They exist for the diagnosis as well as the management of cancer. The international standards for cancer diagnosis are contained within the World Health Organization (WHO) Classification of Tumours, published by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and known worldwide as the WHO Blue Books. In addition to their relevance to individual patients, these volumes provide a valuable contribution to cancer research and surveillance, fulfilling an important role in scientific evidence synthesis and international standard setting. However, the multidimensional nature of cancer classification, the way in which the WHO Classification of Tumours is constructed, and the scientific information overload in the field pose important challenges for the translation of research findings to tumour classification and hence cancer diagnosis. To help address these challenges, we have established the International Collaboration for Cancer Classification and Research (IC3 R) to provide a forum for the coordination of efforts in evidence generation, standard setting and best practice recommendations in the field of tumour classification. The first IC3 R meeting, held in Lyon, France, in February 2019, gathered representatives of major institutions involved in tumour classification and related fields to identify and discuss translational challenges in data comparability, standard setting, quality management, evidence evaluation and copyright, as well as to develop a collaborative plan for addressing these challenges.

Plasma and cerebrospinal fluid ABeta42 for the differential diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease dementia in participants diagnosed with any dementia subtype in a specialist care setting.

BACKGROUND: Dementia is a syndrome that comprises many differing pathologies, including Alzheimer's disease dementia (ADD), vascular dementia (VaD) and frontotemporal dementia (FTD). People may benefit from knowing the type of dementia they live with, as this could inform prognosis and may allow for tailored treatment. Beta-amyloid (1-42) (ABeta42) is a protein which decreases in both the plasma and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) of people living with ADD, when compared to people with no dementia. However, it is not clear if changes in ABeta42 are specific to ADD or if they are also seen in other types of dementia. It is possible that ABeta42 could help differentiate ADD from other dementia subtypes. OBJECTIVES: To determine the accuracy of plasma and CSF ABeta42 for distinguishing ADD from other dementia subtypes in people who meet the criteria for a dementia syndrome. SEARCH METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, and nine other databases up to 18 February 2020. We checked reference lists of any relevant systematic reviews to identify additional studies. SELECTION CRITERIA: We considered cross-sectional studies that differentiated people with ADD from other dementia subtypes. Eligible studies required measurement of participant plasma or CSF ABeta42 levels and clinical assessment for dementia subtype. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Seven review authors working independently screened the titles and abstracts generated by the searches. We collected data on study characteristics and test accuracy. We used the second version of the 'Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies' (QUADAS-2) tool to assess internal and external validity of results. We extracted data into 2 x 2 tables, cross-tabulating index test results (ABeta42) with the reference standard (diagnostic criteria for each dementia subtype). We performed meta-analyses using bivariate, random-effects models. We calculated pooled estimates of sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values, positive and negative likelihood ratios, and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). In the primary analysis, we assessed accuracy of plasma or CSF ABeta42 for distinguishing ADD from other mixed dementia types (non-ADD). We then assessed accuracy of ABeta42 for differentiating ADD from specific dementia types: VaD, FTD, dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB), alcohol-related cognitive disorder (ARCD), Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) and normal pressure hydrocephalus (NPH). To determine test-positive cases, we used the ABeta42 thresholds employed in the respective primary studies. We then performed sensitivity analyses restricted to those studies that used common thresholds for ABeta42. MAIN RESULTS: We identified 39 studies (5000 participants) that used CSF ABeta42 levels to differentiate ADD from other subtypes of dementia. No studies of plasma ABeta42 met the inclusion criteria. No studies were rated as low risk of bias across all QUADAS-2 domains. High risk of bias was found predominantly in the domains of patient selection (28 studies) and index test (25 studies). The pooled estimates for differentiating ADD from other dementia subtypes were as follows: ADD from non-ADD: sensitivity 79% (95% CI 0.73 to 0.85), specificity 60% (95% CI 0.52 to 0.67), 13 studies, 1704 participants, 880 participants with ADD; ADD from VaD: sensitivity 79% (95% CI 0.75 to 0.83), specificity 69% (95% CI 0.55 to 0.81), 11 studies, 1151 participants, 941 participants with ADD; ADD from FTD: sensitivity 85% (95% CI 0.79 to 0.89), specificity 72% (95% CI 0.55 to 0.84), 17 studies, 1948 participants, 1371 participants with ADD; ADD from DLB: sensitivity 76% (95% CI 0.69 to 0.82), specificity 67% (95% CI 0.52 to 0.79), nine studies, 1929 participants, 1521 participants with ADD. Across all dementia subtypes, sensitivity was greater than specificity, and the balance of sensitivity and specificity was dependent on the threshold used to define test positivity. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Our review indicates that measuring ABeta42 levels in CSF may help differentiate ADD from other dementia subtypes, but the test is imperfect and tends to misdiagnose those with non-ADD as having ADD. We would caution against the use of CSF ABeta42 alone for dementia classification. However, ABeta42 may have value as an adjunct to a full clinical assessment, to aid dementia diagnosis.

At what times during infection is SARS-CoV-2 detectable and no longer detectable using RT-PCR-based tests? A systematic review of individual participant data.

BACKGROUND: Tests for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) viral ribonucleic acid (RNA) using reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) are pivotal to detecting current coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and duration of detectable virus indicating potential for infectivity. METHODS: We conducted an individual participant data (IPD) systematic review of longitudinal studies of RT-PCR test results in symptomatic SARS-CoV-2. We searched PubMed, LitCOVID, medRxiv, and COVID-19 Living Evidence databases. We assessed risk of bias using a QUADAS-2 adaptation. Outcomes were the percentage of positive test results by time and the duration of detectable virus, by anatomical sampling sites. RESULTS: Of 5078 studies screened, we included 32 studies with 1023 SARS-CoV-2 infected participants and 1619 test results, from - 6 to 66 days post-symptom onset and hospitalisation. The highest percentage virus detection was from nasopharyngeal sampling between 0 and 4 days post-symptom onset at 89% (95% confidence interval (CI) 83 to 93) dropping to 54% (95% CI 47 to 61) after 10 to 14 days. On average, duration of detectable virus was longer with lower respiratory tract (LRT) sampling than upper respiratory tract (URT). Duration of faecal and respiratory tract virus detection varied greatly within individual participants. In some participants, virus was still detectable at 46 days post-symptom onset. CONCLUSIONS: RT-PCR misses detection of people with SARS-CoV-2 infection; early sampling minimises false negative diagnoses. Beyond 10 days post-symptom onset, lower RT or faecal testing may be preferred sampling sites. The included studies are open to substantial risk of bias, so the positivity rates are probably overestimated.

Cost-effectiveness of diagnostic and therapeutic interventions for chronic hepatitis C: a systematic review of model-based analyses.

BACKGROUND: Decisions about which subgroup of chronic hepatitis C (CHC) patients should be treated with direct acting anti-viral agents (DAAs) have economic importance due to high drug prices. Treat-all DAA strategies for CHC have gained acceptance despite high drug acquisition costs. However, there are also costs associated with the surveillance of CHC to determine a subgroup of patients with significant impairment. The aim of this systematic review was to describe the modelling methods used and summarise results in cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) of both CHC treatment with DAAs and surveillance of liver disease. METHODS: Electronic databases including Embase and Medline were searched from inception to May 2015. Eligible studies included models predicting costs and/or outcomes for interventions, surveillance, or management of people with CHC. Narrative and quantitative synthesis were conducted. Quality appraisal was conducted using validated checklists. The review was conducted following principles published by NHS Centre for Research and Dissemination. RESULTS: Forty-one CEAs met the eligibility criteria for the review; 37 evaluated an intervention and four evaluated surveillance strategies for targeting DAA treatment to those likely to gain most benefit. Included studies were of variable quality mostly due to reporting omissions. Of the 37 CEAs, eight models that enabled comparative analysis were fully appraised and synthesized. These models provided non-unique cost-effectiveness estimates in a specific DAA comparison in a specific population defined in terms of genotype, prior treatment status, and presence or absence of cirrhosis. Marked heterogeneity in cost-effectiveness estimates was observed despite this stratification. Approximately half of the estimates suggested that DAAs were cost-effective considering a threshold of US$30,000 and 73% with threshold of US$50,000. Two models evaluating surveillance strategies suggested that treating all CHC patients regardless of the staging of liver disease could be cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS: CEAs of CHC treatments need to better account for variability in their estimates. This analysis suggested that there are still circumstances where DAAs are not cost-effective. Surveillance in place of a treat-all strategy may still need to be considered as an option for deploying DAAs, particularly where acquisition cost is at the limit of affordability for a given health system.

A methodology review on the incremental prognostic value of computed tomography biomarkers in addition to Framingham risk score in predicting cardiovascular disease: the use of association, discrimination and reclassification.

BACKGROUND: Computed tomography (CT) biomarkers claim to improve cardiovascular risk stratification. This review focuses on significant differences in incremental measures between adequate and inadequate reporting practise. METHODS: Studies included were those that used Framingham Risk Score as a baseline and described the incremental value of adding calcium score or CT coronary angiogram in predicting cardiovascular risk. Searches of MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science and Cochrane Central were performed with no language restriction. RESULTS: Thirty five studies consisting of 206,663 patients (men = 118,114, 55.1%) were included. The baseline Framingham Risk Score included the 1998, 2002 and 2008 iterations. Selective reporting, inconsistent reference groupings and thresholds were found. Twelve studies (34.3%) had major and 23 (65.7%) had minor alterations and the respective Δ AUC were significantly different (p = 0.015). When the baseline model performed well, the Δ AUC was relatively lower with the addition of a CT biomarker (Spearman coefficient = - 0.46, p < 0.0001; n = 33; 76 pairs of data). Other factors that influenced AUC performance included exploration of data analysis, calibration, validation, multivariable and AUC documentation (all p < 0.05). Most studies (68.7%) that reported categorical NRI (n = 16; 46 pairs of data) subjectively drew strong conclusions along with other poor reporting practices. However, no significant difference in values of NRI was found between adequate and inadequate reporting. CONCLUSIONS: The widespread practice of poor reporting particularly association, discrimination, reclassification, calibration and validation undermines the claimed incremental value of CT biomarkers over the Framingham Risk Score alone. Inadequate reporting of discrimination inflates effect estimate, however, that is not necessarily the case for reclassification.

A systematic review of test accuracy studies evaluating molecular micro-satellite instability testing for the detection of individuals with lynch syndrome.

BACKGROUND: A systematic review was conducted to assess the diagnostic test accuracy of polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based microsatellite instability (MSI) testing for identifying Lynch syndrome in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC). Unlike previous reviews, this was based on assessing MSI testing against best practice for the reference standard, and included CRC populations that were unselected, age-limited or high-risk for Lynch syndrome. METHODS: Single- and two-gate diagnostic test accuracy studies, or similar, were identified, assessed for inclusion, data extracted and quality appraised by two reviewers according to a pre-specified protocol. Sensitivity of MSI testing was estimated for all included studies. Specificity, likelihood ratios and predictive values were estimated for studies that were not based on high-risk samples. Narrative synthesis was conducted. RESULTS: Nine study samples were included. When MSI-Low results were considered to be negative, sensitivity estimates ranged from 67% (95% CI 47, 83) to 100% (95% CI 94, 100). Three studies contributed to estimates of both sensitivity and specificity, with specificity ranging from 61% (95% CI 57, 65), to 93% (95% CI 89, 95). Good sensitivity was achieved at the expense of specificity. When MSI-L was considered to be positive (effectively lowering the threshold for a positive index test result) sensitivity increased and specificity decreased. Between-study heterogeneity in both the MSI and reference standard testing, combined with the low number of studies contributing to both sensitivity and specificity estimates, precluded pooling by meta-analysis. CONCLUSIONS: MSI testing is an effective screening test for Lynch syndrome. However, there is significant uncertainty surrounding what balance of sensitivity and specificity will be achieved in clinical practice and how this relates to specific characteristics of the test (such as the panel of markers used or the thresholds used to denote a positive test).

Systematic Review of Health Economic Impact Evaluations of Risk Prediction Models: Stop Developing, Start Evaluating.

BACKGROUND: Although health economic evaluations (HEEs) are increasingly common for therapeutic interventions, they appear to be rare for the use of risk prediction models (PMs). OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the current state of HEEs of PMs by performing a comprehensive systematic review. METHODS: Four databases were searched for HEEs of PM-based strategies. Two reviewers independently selected eligible articles. A checklist was compiled to score items focusing on general characteristics of HEEs of PMs, model characteristics and quality of HEEs, evidence on PMs typically used in the HEEs, and the specific challenges in performing HEEs of PMs. RESULTS: After screening 791 abstracts, 171 full texts, and reference checking, 40 eligible HEEs evaluating 60 PMs were identified. In these HEEs, PM strategies were compared with current practice (n = 32; 80%), to other stratification methods for patient management (n = 19; 48%), to an extended PM (n = 9; 23%), or to alternative PMs (n = 5; 13%). The PMs guided decisions on treatment (n = 42; 70%), further testing (n = 18; 30%), or treatment prioritization (n = 4; 7%). For 36 (60%) PMs, only a single decision threshold was evaluated. Costs of risk prediction were ignored for 28 (46%) PMs. Uncertainty in outcomes was assessed using probabilistic sensitivity analyses in 22 (55%) HEEs. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the huge number of PMs in the medical literature, HEE of PMs remains rare. In addition, we observed great variety in their quality and methodology, which may complicate interpretation of HEE results and implementation of PMs in practice. Guidance on HEE of PMs could encourage and standardize their application and enhance methodological quality, thereby improving adequate use of PM strategies.

Test-treatment RCTs are susceptible to bias: a review of the methodological quality of randomized trials that evaluate diagnostic tests.

BACKGROUND: There is a growing recognition for the need to expand our evidence base for the clinical effectiveness of diagnostic tests. Many international bodies are calling for diagnostic randomized controlled trials to provide the most rigorous evidence of impact to patient health. Although these so-called test-treatment RCTs are very challenging to undertake due to their methodological complexity, they have not been subjected to a systematic appraisal of their methodological quality. The extent to which these trials may be producing biased results therefore remains unknown. We set out to address this issue by conducting a methodological review of published test-treatment trials to determine how often they implement adequate methods to limit bias and safeguard the validity of results. METHODS: We ascertained all test-treatment RCTs published 2004-2007, indexed in CENTRAL, including RCTs which randomized patients to diagnostic tests and measured patient outcomes after treatment. Tests used for screening, monitoring or prognosis were excluded. We assessed adequacy of sequence generation, allocation concealment and intention-to-treat, appropriateness of primary analyses, blinding and reporting of power calculations, and extracted study characteristics including the primary outcome. RESULTS: One hundred three trials compared 105 control with 119 experimental interventions, and reported 150 primary outcomes. Randomization and allocation concealment were adequate in 57 and 37% of trials. Blinding was uncommon (patients 5%, clinicians 4%, outcome assessors 21%), as was an adequate intention-to-treat analysis (29%). Overall 101 of 103 trials (98%) were at risk of bias, as judged using standard Cochrane criteria. CONCLUSION: Test-treatment trials are particularly susceptible to attrition and inadequate primary analyses, lack of blinding and under-powering. These weaknesses pose much greater methodological and practical challenges to conducting reliable RCT evaluations of test-treatment strategies than standard treatment interventions. We suggest a cautious approach that first examines whether a test-treatment intervention can accommodate the methodological safeguards necessary to minimize bias, and highlight that test-treatment RCTs require different methods to ensure reliability than standard treatment trials. Please see the companion paper to this article: http://bmcmedresmethodol.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12874-016-0286-0 .

Research waste in diagnostic trials: a methods review evaluating the reporting of test-treatment interventions.

BACKGROUND: The most rigorous method for evaluating the effectiveness of diagnostic tests is through randomised trials that compare test-treatment interventions: complex interventions comprising episodes of testing, decision-making and treatment. The multi-staged nature of these interventions, combined with the need to relay diagnostic decision-making and treatment planning, has led researchers to hypothesise that test-treatment strategies may be very challenging to document. However, no reviews have yet examined the reporting quality of interventions used in test-treatment RCTs. In this study we evaluate the completeness of intervention descriptions in a systematically identified cohort of test-treatment RCTs. METHODS: We ascertained all test-treatment RCTs published 2004-2007, indexed in CENTRAL. Included trials randomized patients to diagnostic tests and measured patient outcomes after treatment. Two raters examined the completeness of test-treatment intervention descriptions in four components: 1) the test, 2) diagnostic decision-making, 3) management decision-making, 4) treatments. RESULTS: One hundred and three trials compared 105 control with 119 experimental interventions, most commonly in cardiovascular medicine (35, 34%), obstetrics and gynecology (17%), gastroenterology (14%) or orthopedics (10%). A broad range of tests were evaluated, including imaging (50, 42%), biochemical assays (21%) and clinical assessment (12%). Only five (5%) trials detailed all four components of experimental and control interventions, none of which also provided a complete care pathway diagram. Experimental arms were missing descriptions of tests, diagnostic-decision making, management planning and treatments (36%, 51%, 55% and 79% of trials respectively); control arms were missing the same details in 61%, 66%, 67% and 84% of trials. CONCLUSION: Reporting of test-treatment interventions is very poor, inadequate for understanding the results of these trials, and for comparing or translating results into clinical practice. Reporting needs to improve, with greater emphasis on describing the decision-making components of care pathways in both pragmatic and explanatory trials. Please see the companion paper to this article: http://bmcmedresmethodol.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12874-016-0287-z .

Micro-costing analysis of guideline-based treatment by direct-acting agents: the real-life case of hepatitis C management in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Eradication of hepatitis C virus (HCV) using direct-acting agents (DAA) has been associated with a financial burden to health authorities worldwide. We aimed to evaluate the guideline-based treatment costs by DAAs from the perspective of the Brazilian Ministry of Health (BMoH). METHODS: The activity based costing method was used to estimate the cost for monitoring/treatment of genotype-1 (GT1) HCV patients by the following strategies: peg-interferon (PEG-IFN)/ribavirin (RBV) for 48 weeks, PEG-IFN/RBV plus boceprevir (BOC) or telaprevir (TEL) for 48 weeks, and sofosbuvir (SOF) plus daclastavir (DCV) or simeprevir (SIM) for 12 weeks. Costs were reported in United States Dollars without (US$) and with adjustment for purchasing power parity (PPP$). Drug costs were collected at the National Database of Health Prices and an overview of the literature was performed to assess effectiveness of SOF/DCV and SOF/SIM regimens in real-world cohorts. RESULTS: Treatment costs of GT1-HCV patients were PPP$ 43,176.28 (US$ 24,020.16) for PEG-IFN/RBV, PPP$ 71,196.03 (US$ 39,578.23) for PEG-IFN/RBV/BOC and PPP$ 86,250.33 (US$ 47,946.92) for PEG-IFN/RBV/TEL. Treatment by all-oral interferon-free regimens were the less expensive approach: PPP$ 19,761.72 (US$ 10,985.90) for SOF/DCV and PPP$ 21,590.91 (US$ 12,002.75) for SOF/SIM. The overview reported HCV eradication in up to 98% for SOF/DCV and 96% for SOF/SIM. CONCLUSION: Strategies with all oral interferon-free might lead to lower costs for management of GT1-HCV patients compared to IFN-based regimens in Brazil. This occurred mainly because of high discounts over international DAA prices due to negotiation between BMoH and pharmaceutical industries.

Age-standardized mortality rates related to viral hepatitis in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Liver-related mortality has been increasing worldwide. We aimed to estimate the age-standardized mortality rates from viral hepatitis in Brazil. METHODS: The Brazilian National Death Registry was analyzed from 2008 to 2014. Viral hepatitis deaths were defined by the following ICD-10 codes in the death certificate: hepatitis A [B15.0; B15.9]; hepatitis B [B16.2; B16.9; B18.1]; hepatitis C [B17.1; B18.2]; hepatitis Delta [B16.0; B16.1; B18.0; B17.0] and other viral hepatitis [B17.2; B17.8; B18.8; B18.9; B19.0; B19.9]. Crude mortality rates were calculated by the ratio between total number of deaths and estimated population. Mortality rates were age-standardized by the direct method using the WHO standard population. RESULTS: Thirty four thousand ,nine hundred seventy eight deaths had viral hepatitis mentioned in their death certificate [65% male, aged 58 years, 73% associated with hepatitis C]. Age-standardized mortality rate (95% CI) due to viral hepatitis was 2.695 (2.667-2.724) deaths per 100,000 inhabitants: South region had the higher rates [3.997 (3.911-4.085)]. Mortality rates associated with hepatitis A and Delta were 0.032 (0.029-0.035) and 0.028 (0.025-0.031), respectively. Hepatitis C mortality rates were 4-fold higher than those associated with hepatitis B [1.964 (1.940-1.989) vs 0.500 (0.488-0.512)]. South region had the higher rates for hepatitis C [3.163 (3.087-3.241)] and North had the higher rates for hepatitis A [0.066 (0.049-0.087)], B [0.986 (0.918-1.058)] and Delta [0.220 (0.190-0.253)]. CONCLUSION: Viral hepatitis remains a major public health issue in Brazil. Mortality rates were not homogeneous across the country, suggesting that health policies should be customized according to geographical location.

A model-based assessment of the cost-utility of strategies to identify Lynch syndrome in early-onset colorectal cancer patients.

BACKGROUND: Lynch syndrome is an autosomal dominant cancer predisposition syndrome caused by mutations in the DNA mismatch repair genes MLH1, MSH2, MSH6 and PMS2. Individuals with Lynch syndrome have an increased risk of colorectal cancer, endometrial cancer, ovarian and other cancers. Lynch syndrome remains underdiagnosed in the UK. Reflex testing for Lynch syndrome in early-onset colorectal cancer patients is proposed as a method to identify more families affected by Lynch syndrome and offer surveillance to reduce cancer risks, although cost-effectiveness is viewed as a barrier to implementation. The objective of this project was to estimate the cost-utility of strategies to identify Lynch syndrome in individuals with early-onset colorectal cancer in the NHS. METHODS: A decision analytic model was developed which simulated diagnostic and long-term outcomes over a lifetime horizon for colorectal cancer patients with and without Lynch syndrome and for relatives of those patients. Nine diagnostic strategies were modelled which included microsatellite instability (MSI) testing, immunohistochemistry (IHC), BRAF mutation testing (methylation testing in a scenario analysis), diagnostic mutation testing and Amsterdam II criteria. Biennial colonoscopic surveillance was included for individuals diagnosed with Lynch syndrome and accepting surveillance. Prophylactic hysterectomy with bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy (H-BSO) was similarly included for women diagnosed with Lynch syndrome. Costs from NHS and Personal Social Services perspective and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were estimated and discounted at 3.5% per annum. RESULTS: All strategies included for the identification of Lynch syndrome were cost-effective versus no testing. The strategy with the greatest net health benefit was MSI followed by BRAF followed by diagnostic genetic testing, costing £5,491 per QALY gained over no testing. The effect of prophylactic H-BSO on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) is uncertain and could outweigh the health benefits of testing, resulting in overall QALY loss. CONCLUSIONS: Reflex testing for Lynch syndrome in early-onset colorectal cancer patients is predicted to be a cost-effective use of limited financial resources in England and Wales. Research is recommended into the cost-effectiveness of reflex testing for Lynch syndrome in other associated cancers and into the impact of prophylactic H-BSO on HRQoL.

¹8F-FDG PET for the early diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease dementia and other dementias in people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI).

BACKGROUND: ¹8F-FDFG uptake by brain tissue as measured by positron emission tomography (PET) is a well-established method for assessment of brain function in people with dementia. Certain findings on brain PET scans can potentially predict the decline of mild cognitive Impairment (MCI) to Alzheimer's disease dementia or other dementias. OBJECTIVES: To determine the diagnostic accuracy of the ¹8F-FDG PET index test for detecting people with MCI at baseline who would clinically convert to Alzheimer's disease dementia or other forms of dementia at follow-up. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Register of Diagnostic Test Accuracy Studies, MEDLINE, EMBASE, Science Citation Index, PsycINFO, BIOSIS previews, LILACS, MEDION, (Meta-analyses van Diagnostisch Onderzoek), DARE (Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects), HTA (Health Technology Assessment Database), ARIF (Aggressive Research Intelligence Facility) and C-EBLM (International Federation of Clinical Chemistry and Laboratory Medicine Committee for Evidence-based Laboratory Medicine) databases to January 2013. We checked the reference lists of any relevant studies and systematic reviews for additional studies. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included studies that evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of ¹8F-FDG PET to determine the conversion from MCI to Alzheimer's disease dementia or to other forms of dementia, i.e. any or all of vascular dementia, dementia with Lewy bodies, and fronto-temporal dementia. These studies necessarily employ delayed verification of conversion to dementia and are sometimes labelled as 'delayed verification cross-sectional studies'. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two blinded review authors independently extracted data, resolving disagreement by discussion, with the option to involve a third review author as arbiter if necessary. We extracted and summarised graphically the data for two-by-two tables. We conducted exploratory analyses by plotting estimates of sensitivity and specificity from each study on forest plots and in receiver operating characteristic (ROC) space. When studies had mixed thresholds, we derived estimates of sensitivity and likelihood ratios at fixed values (lower quartile, median and upper quartile) of specificity from the hierarchical summary ROC (HSROC) models. MAIN RESULTS: We included 14 studies (421 participants) in the analysis. The sensitivities for conversion from MCI to Alzheimer's disease dementia were between 25% and 100% while the specificities were between 15% and 100%. From the summary ROC curve we fitted we estimated that the sensitivity was 76% (95% confidence interval (CI): 53.8 to 89.7) at the included study median specificity of 82%. This equates to a positive likelihood ratio of 4.03 (95% CI: 2.97 to 5.47), and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.34 (95% CI: 0.15 to 0.75). Three studies recruited participants from the same Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) cohort but only the largest ADNI study (Herholz 2011) is included in the meta-analysis. In order to demonstrate whether the choice of ADNI study or discriminating brain region (Chételat 2003) or reader assessment (Pardo 2010) make a difference to the pooled estimate, we performed five additional analyses. At the median specificity of 82%, the estimated sensitivity was between 74% and 76%. There was no impact on our findings. In addition to evaluating Alzheimer's disease dementia, five studies evaluated the accuracy of ¹8F-FDG PET for all types of dementia. The sensitivities were between 46% and 95% while the specificities were between 29% and 100%; however, we did not conduct a meta-analysis because of too few studies, and those studies which we had found recruited small numbers of participants. Our findings are based on studies with poor reporting, and the majority of included studies had an unclear risk of bias, mainly for the reference standard and participant selection domains. According to the assessment of Index test domain, more than 50% of studies were of poor methodological quality. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: It is difficult to determine to what extent the findings from the meta-analysis can be applied to clinical practice. Given the considerable variability of specificity values and lack of defined thresholds for determination of test positivity in the included studies, the current evidence does not support the routine use of ¹8F-FDG PET scans in clinical practice in people with MCI. The ¹8F-FDG PET scan is a high-cost investigation, and it is therefore important to clearly demonstrate its accuracy and to standardise the process of ¹8F-FDG PET diagnostic modality prior to its being widely used. Future studies with more uniform approaches to thresholds, analysis and study conduct may provide a more homogeneous estimate than the one available from the included studies we have identified.

Thromboelastography (TEG) and rotational thromboelastometry (ROTEM) for trauma induced coagulopathy in adult trauma patients with bleeding.

BACKGROUND: Trauma-induced coagulopathy (TIC) is a disorder of the blood clotting process that occurs soon after trauma injury. A diagnosis of TIC on admission is associated with increased mortality rates, increased burdens of transfusion, greater risks of complications and longer stays in critical care. Current diagnostic testing follows local hospital processes and normally involves conventional coagulation tests including prothrombin time ratio/international normalized ratio (PTr/INR), activated partial prothrombin time and full blood count. In some centres, thromboelastography (TEG) and rotational thromboelastometry (ROTEM) are standard tests, but in the UK they are more commonly used in research settings. OBJECTIVES: The objective was to determine the diagnostic accuracy of thromboelastography (TEG) and rotational thromboelastometry (ROTEM) for TIC in adult trauma patients with bleeding, using a reference standard of prothrombin time ratio and/or the international normalized ratio. SEARCH METHODS: We ran the search on 4 March 2013. Searches ran from 1970 to current. We searched The Cochrane Library, MEDLINE (OvidSP), EMBASE Classic and EMBASE, eleven other databases, the web, and clinical trials registers. The Cochrane Injuries Group's specialised register was not searched for this review as it does not contain diagnostic test accuracy studies. We also screened reference lists, conducted forward citation searches and contacted authors. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included all cross-sectional studies investigating the diagnostic test accuracy of TEG and ROTEM in patients with clinically suspected TIC, as well as case-control studies. Participants were adult trauma patients in both military and civilian settings. TIC was defined as a PTr/INR reading of 1.2 or greater, or 1.5 or greater. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We piloted and performed all review stages in duplicate, including quality assessment using the QUADAS-2 tool, adhering to guidance in the Cochrane Handbook for Diagnostic Test Accuracy Reviews. We analysed sensitivity and specificity of included studies narratively as there were insufficient studies to perform a meta-analysis. MAIN RESULTS: Three studies were included in the final analysis. All three studies used ROTEM as the test of global haemostatic function, and none of the studies used TEG. Tissue factor-activated assay EXTEM clot amplitude (CA) was the focus of the accuracy measurements in blood samples taken near to the point of admission. These CAs were not taken at a uniform time after the start of the coagulopathic trace; the time varied from five minutes, to ten minutes and fifteen minutes. The three included studies were conducted in the UK, France and Afghanistan in both civilian and military trauma settings. In two studies, median Injury Severity Scores were 12, inter-quartile range (IQR) 4 to 24; and 22, IQR 12 to 34; and in one study the median New Injury Severity Score was 34, IQR 17 to 43.There were insufficient included studies examining each of the three ROTEM CAs at 5, 10 and 15 minutes to make meta-analysis and investigation of heterogeneity valid. The results of the included studies are thus reported narratively and illustrated by a forest plot and results plotted on the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plane.For CA5 the accuracy results were sensitivity 70% (95% CI 47% to 87%) and specificity 86% (95% CI 82% to 90%) for one study, and sensitivity 96% (95% CI 88% to 100%) and specificity 58% (95% CI 44% to 72%) for the other.For CA10 the accuracy results were sensitivity 100% (95% CI 94% to 100%) and specificity 70% (95% CI 56% to 82%).For CA15 the accuracy results were sensitivity 88% (95% CI 69% to 97%) and specificity 100% (95% CI 94% to 100%).No uninterpretable ROTEM study results were mentioned in any of the included studies.Risk of bias and concerns around applicability of findings was low across all studies for the patient and flow and timing domains. However, risk of bias and concerns around applicability of findings for the index test domain was either high or unclear, and the risk of bias for the reference standard domain was high. This raised concerns around the interpretation of the sensitivity and specificity results of the included studies, which may be misleading. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: We found no evidence on the accuracy of TEG and very little evidence on the accuracy of ROTEM. The value of accuracy estimates are considerably undermined by the small number of included studies, and concerns about risk of bias relating to the index test and the reference standard. We are unable to offer advice on the use of global measures of haemostatic function for trauma based on the evidence on test accuracy identified in this systematic review. This evidence strongly suggests that at present these tests should only be used for research. We consider more thoroughly what this research could be in the Discussion section.

Dopamine transporter imaging for the diagnosis of dementia with Lewy bodies.

BACKGROUND: Dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB) is a common cause of neurodegenerative dementia of old age. Its accurate recognition can be important in clinical management and is essential for the development of disease-modifying treatments. The current clinical diagnostic criteria are limited particularly by relatively poor sensitivity. Dopamine transporter (DAT) imaging using single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) is the most highly developed supplementary test for DLB, and is now incorporated as a suggestive feature in the consensus diagnostic criteria. However, there is uncertainty about its accuracy and its place in clinical practice. It is most commonly used in people who are already suspected of having DLB. OBJECTIVES: We had two objectives in this review: (A) to estimate the accuracy of DAT imaging for the diagnosis of DLB in people with dementia in secondary care (specialist dementia services), and (B) to estimate the accuracy of DAT imaging for the diagnosis of DLB in people with dementia in secondary care who are already suspected of having DLB on the basis of a prior clinical work-up. SEARCH METHODS: We searched MEDLINE (1946 to February 2013), Embase (1980 to February 2013), BIOSIS Previews (1926 to February 2013), PsycINFO (1806 to February 2013), CINAHL (1982 to February 2013), LILACS (February 2013) and Web of Science and Conference Proceedings (ISI Web of Science) (1945 to February 2013). Several of these sources contain conference abstracts. We also searched four specialised databases containing diagnostic reviews: Meta-analyses van Diagnostisch Onderzoek (MEDION; February 2013), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE; February 2013), Health Technology Assessment Database (HTA; February 2013), and Aggressive Research Intelligence Facility (ARIF; February 2013). We checked reference lists of relevant studies and reviews for potential additional studies. Terms for electronic database searching were devised in conjunction with the team at the Cochrane Dementia and Cognitive Improvement Group. STUDY DESIGN: We included test accuracy studies with delayed verification, diagnostic case-control studies, and two-gate studies with alternative diagnosis controls. PARTICIPANTS: (A) participants with dementia in secondary care, (B) participants in secondary care meeting consensus clinical criteria (other than the DAT imaging criterion) for possible or probable DLB, or both. INDEX TEST: SPECT or positron emission tomography (PET) imaging of brain dopamine transporters. Reference standard: Neuropathological diagnosis at autopsy. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two review authors independently selected studies for inclusion and extracted data. We extracted results into a 2x2 table, showing the binary test results cross-classified with the binary reference standard. We used this data to calculate sensitivities, specificities, and their 95% confidence intervals. We used the QUADAS-2 tool plus some additional items to assess methodological quality. MAIN RESULTS: We included one study that was applicable to our first objective (A). It reported data on 22 participants who met consensus clinical criteria for DLB or National Institute of Neurological and Communicative Disorders and Stroke and the Alzheimer's Disease and Related Disorders Association (NINCDS-ADRDA) criteria for Alzheimer's disease, or both (a two-gate design with alternative diagnosis controls). The index test was SPECT scanning using the ligand (123)I-FP-CIT. We considered the study to be at high risk of bias in the participant selection and index test domains (QUADAS-2). (123)I-FP-CIT SPECT analysed semiquantitatively had a sensitivity of 1.00 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.66 to 1.00) and a specificity of 0.92 (95% CI 0.64 to 1.00) for the diagnosis of DLB (n = 22, 1 study). Analysed visually, the sensitivity was 0.86 (95% CI 0.42 to 1.00) and the specificity was 0.83 (95% CI 0.52 to 0.98) (n = 19, 1 study).We considered that the study also provided the best available data to address our second objective (B). At baseline, 15 participants were clinically suspected of having DLB. In this group, (123)I-FP-CIT SPECT scanning analysed semiquantitatively had a sensitivity of 1.00 (95% CI 0.63 to 1.00) and a specificity of 1.00 (95% CI 0.59 to 1.00) for the diagnosis of DLB (n = 15, 1 study). Analysed visually, accuracy in this group was lower with a sensitivity of 0.83 (95% CI 0.36 to 1.00) and a specificity of 0.71 (95% CI 0.29 to 0.96) (n = 13, 1 study). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Only one study has used a neuropathological reference standard to assess the accuracy of DAT imaging for the diagnosis of DLB. The small size of the included study means that sensitivity and specificity estimates are imprecise. However, data from this study suggest that DAT imaging is more accurate than clinical diagnosis. Clinical diagnosis is therefore unsuitable to use as a reference standard for assessing the accuracy of DAT imaging.No studies using a neuropathological reference standard have directly addressed the common clinical scenario where the use of DAT imaging is considered as a diagnostic test in a person with possible DLB, or assessed the accuracy of DAT imaging in people with mild dementia. However, the data from the included study suggest that, where there is moderately severe dementia and a strong pre-existing suspicion of DLB (probable DLB), then a normal (123)I-FP-CIT SPECT scan may be an accurate means of excluding the diagnosis.Semiquantitative ratings of (123)I-FP-CIT SPECT scans appeared to be more accurate than visual ratings in all analyses.