Transmission phenotype of Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains is mechanistically linked to induction of distinct pulmonary pathology.

In a study of household contacts (HHC), households were categorized into High (HT) and Low (LT) transmission groups based on the proportion of HHC with a positive tuberculin skin test. The Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) strains from HT and LT index cases of the households were designated Mtb-HT and Mtb-LT, respectively. We found that C3HeB/FeJ mice infected with Mtb-LT strains exhibited significantly higher bacterial burden compared to Mtb-HT strains and also developed diffused inflammatory lung pathology. In stark contrast, a significant number of mice infected with Mtb-HT strains developed caseating granulomas, a lesion type with high potential to cavitate. None of the Mtb-HT infected animals developed diffused inflammatory lung pathology. A link was observed between increased in vitro replication of Mtb-LT strains and their ability to induce significantly high lipid droplet formation in macrophages. These results support that distinct early interactions of Mtb-HT and Mtb-LT strains with macrophages and subsequent differential trajectories in pathological disease may be the mechanism underlying their transmission potential.

Using Cure Models to Estimate the Serial Interval of Tuberculosis With Limited Follow-up.

Serial interval (SI), defined as the time between symptom onset in an infector and infectee pair, is commonly used to understand infectious diseases transmission. Slow progression to active disease, as well as the small percentage of individuals who will eventually develop active disease, complicate the estimation of the SI for tuberculosis (TB). In this paper, we showed via simulation studies that when there is credible information on the percentage of those who will develop TB disease following infection, a cure model, first introduced by Boag in 1949, should be used to estimate the SI for TB. This model includes a parameter in the likelihood function to account for the study population being composed of those who will have the event of interest and those who will never have the event. We estimated the SI for TB to be approximately 0.5 years for the United States and Canada (January 2002 to December 2006) and approximately 2.0 years for Brazil (March 2008 to June 2012), which might imply a higher occurrence of reinfection TB in a developing country like Brazil.

Intensity of exposure to pulmonary tuberculosis determines risk of tuberculosis infection and disease.

Household contacts of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) patients are at increased risk of TB infection and disease. However, their risk in relation to the intensity of exposure remains unknown.We studied smear-positive TB cases and their household contacts in Vitória, Brazil. We collected clinical, demographic and radiographic information from TB cases, and obtained tuberculin skin test (TST) and QuantiFERON-TB Gold (QFT) results from household contacts. We measured intensity of exposure using a proximity score and sleep location in relation to the TB index case and defined infection by TST ≥10 mm or QFT ≥0.35 UI·mL-1 We ascertained secondary TB cases by reviewing local and nationwide case registries.We included 160 TB index cases and 894 household contacts. 464 (65%) had TB infection and 23 (2.6%) developed TB disease. Risk of TB infection and disease increased with more intense exposures. In an adjusted analysis, the proximity score was associated with TB disease (OR 1.61, 95% CI 1.25-2.08; p<0.000); however, its diagnostic performance was only moderate.Intensity of exposure increased risk of TB infection and disease among household contacts; however, its diagnostic performance was still suboptimal. A biomarker to target preventive therapy is urgently needed in this at-risk population.

Extensions to Bayesian generalized linear mixed effects models for household tuberculosis transmission.

Household contact studies, a mainstay of tuberculosis transmission research, often assume that tuberculosis-infected household contacts of an index case were infected within the household. However, strain genotyping has provided evidence against this assumption. Understanding the household versus community infection dynamic is essential for designing interventions. The misattribution of infection sources can also bias household transmission predictor estimates. We present a household-community transmission model that estimates the probability of community infection, that is, the probability that a household contact of an index case was actually infected from a source outside the home and simultaneously estimates transmission predictors. We show through simulation that our method accurately predicts the probability of community infection in several scenarios and that not accounting for community-acquired infection in household contact studies can bias risk factor estimates. Applying the model to data from Vitória, Brazil, produced household risk factor estimates similar to two other standard methods for age and sex. However, our model gave different estimates for sleeping proximity to index case and disease severity score. These results show that estimating both the probability of community infection and household transmission predictors is feasible and that standard tuberculosis transmission models likely underestimate the risk for two important transmission predictors. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Incident Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection in household contacts of infectious tuberculosis patients in Brazil.

BACKGROUND: In household contact investigations of tuberculosis (TB), a second tuberculin skin test (TST) obtained several weeks after a first negative result consistently identifies individuals that undergo TST conversion. It remains unclear whether this delay in M. tuberculosis infection is related to differences in the infectious exposure, TST boosting, partial host resistance, or some other factor. METHODS: We conducted a household contact study Vitória, Brazil. Between 2008 and 2013, we identified culture-positive pulmonary TB patients and evaluated their household contacts with both a TST and interferon gamma release assay (IGRA), and identified TST converters at 8-12 weeks post study enrollment. Contacts were classified as TST-positive (≥10 mm) at baseline, TST converters, or persistently TST-negative. We compared TST converters to TST-positive and to TST-negative contacts separately, using generalized estimating equations. RESULTS: We enrolled 160 index patients and 838 contacts; 523 (62.4%) were TST+, 62 (7.4%) TST converters, and 253 (30.2%) TST-. TST converters were frequently IGRA- at 8-12 weeks. In adjusted analyses, characteristics distinguishing TST converters from TST+ contacts (no contact with another TB patient and residence ownership) were different than those differentiating them from TST- contacts (stronger cough in index patient and contact BCG scar). CONCLUSIONS: The individual risk and timing of M. tuberculosis infection within households is variable and dependent on index patient, contact and environmental factors within the household, and the surrounding community. Our findings suggest a threshold effect in the risk of infection in humans.

Cough Aerosols of Mycobacterium tuberculosis in the Prediction of Incident Tuberculosis Disease in Household Contacts.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis disease develops in only 5%-10% of humans infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis The mechanisms underlying this variability remain poorly understood. We recently demonstrated that colony-forming units of M. tuberculosis in cough-generated aerosols are a better predictor of infection than the standard sputum acid-fast bacilli smear. We hypothesized that cough aerosol cultures may also predict progression to tuberculosis disease in contacts. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 85 patients with smear-positive tuberculosis and their 369 household contacts in Kampala, Uganda. Index case patients underwent a standard evaluation, and we cultured M. tuberculosis from cough aerosols. Contacts underwent a standard evaluation at enrollment, and they were later traced to determine their tuberculosis status. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 3.9 years, 8 (2%) of the contacts developed tuberculosis disease. In unadjusted and adjusted analyses, incident tuberculosis disease in contacts was associated with sputum Mycobacterial Growth Indicator Tube culture (odds ratio, 8.2; 95% confidence interval, 1.1-59.2; P = .04), exposure to a high-aerosol tuberculosis case patient (6.0, 1.4-25.2; P = .01), and marginally, human immunodeficiency virus in the contact (6.11; 0.89-41.7; P = .07). We present data demonstrating that sputum and aerosol specimens measure 2 related but different phenomena. CONCLUSIONS: We found an increased risk of tuberculosis progression among contacts of high-aerosol case patients. The hypothesis that a larger infectious inoculum, represented by high aerosol production, determines the risk of disease progression deserves evaluation in future prospective studies.

Diagnostic Accuracy of the Small Membrane Filtration Method for Diagnosis of Pulmonary Tuberculosis in a High-HIV-Prevalence Setting.

Sputum acid-fast bacilli (AFB) smear microscopy has suboptimal sensitivity but remains the most commonly used laboratory test to diagnose pulmonary tuberculosis (TB). We prospectively evaluated the small membrane filtration (SMF) method that concentrates AFB in a smaller area to facilitate detection to improve the diagnostic performance of microscopy. We enrolled adults with suspicion of pulmonary TB from health facilities in southwestern Uganda. Clinical history, physical examination, and 3 sputum samples were obtained for direct fluorescent AFB smear, SMF, Xpert MTB/RIF, and MGIT culture media. Sensitivity and specificity were estimated for SMF, AFB smear, and Xpert MTB/RIF, using MGIT as the reference standard. The analysis was stratified according to HIV status. From September 2012 to April 2014, 737 participants were included in the HIV-infected stratum (146 [20.5%] were culture positive) and 313 were in the HIV-uninfected stratum (85 [28%] were culture positive). In HIV-infected patients, the sensitivity of a single SMF was 67.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 59.9% to 74.1%); for AFB, 68.0% (95% CI, 60.6% to 74.6%); and for Xpert MTB/RIF, 91.0% (95% CI, 85.0% to 94.8%). In HIV-uninfected patients, the corresponding sensitivities were 72.5% (95% CI, 62.1% to 80.9%), 80.3% (95% CI, 70.8% to 87.2%), and 93.5% (95% CI, 85.7% to 97.2%). The specificity for all 3 tests in both HIV groups was ≥96%. In this setting, the SMF method did not improve the diagnostic accuracy of sputum AFB. The Xpert MTB/RIF assay performed well in both HIV-infected and -uninfected groups.

Cough aerosols of Mycobacterium tuberculosis predict new infection: a household contact study.

RATIONALE: Airborne transmission of Mycobacterium tuberculosis results from incompletely characterized host, bacterial, and environmental factors. Sputum smear microscopy is associated with considerable variability in transmission. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the use of cough-generated aerosols of M. tuberculosis to predict recent transmission. METHODS: Patients with pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) underwent a standard evaluation and collection of cough aerosol cultures of M. tuberculosis. We assessed household contacts for new M. tuberculosis infection. We used multivariable logistic regression analysis with cluster adjustment to analyze predictors of new infection. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: From May 2009 to January 2011, we enrolled 96 sputum culture-positive index TB cases and their 442 contacts. Only 43 (45%) patients with TB yielded M. tuberculosis in aerosols. Contacts of patients with TB who produced high aerosols (≥10 CFU) were more likely to have a new infection compared with contacts from low-aerosol (1-9 CFU) and aerosol-negative cases (69%, 25%, and 30%, respectively; P = 0.009). A high-aerosol patient with TB was the only predictor of new M. tuberculosis infection in unadjusted (odds ratio, 5.18; 95% confidence interval, 1.52-17.61) and adjusted analyses (odds ratio, 4.81; 95% confidence interval, 1.20-19.23). Contacts of patients with TB with no aerosols versus low and high aerosols had differential tuberculin skin test and interferon-γ release assay responses. CONCLUSIONS: Cough aerosols of M. tuberculosis are produced by a minority of patients with TB but predict transmission better than sputum smear microscopy or culture. Cough aerosols may help identify the most infectious patients with TB and thus improve the cost-effectiveness of TB control programs.

Variability of infectious aerosols produced during coughing by patients with pulmonary tuberculosis.

RATIONALE: Mycobacterium tuberculosis is transmitted by infectious aerosols, but assessing infectiousness currently relies on sputum microscopy that does not accurately predict the variability in transmission. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the feasibility of collecting cough aerosols and the risk factors for infectious aerosol production from patients with pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) in a resource-limited setting. METHODS: We enrolled subjects with suspected TB in Kampala, Uganda and collected clinical, radiographic, and microbiological data in addition to cough aerosol cultures. A subset of 38 subjects was studied on 2 or 3 consecutive days to assess reproducibility. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: M. tuberculosis was cultured from cough aerosols of 28 of 101 (27.7%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 19.9-37.1%) subjects with culture-confirmed TB, with a median 16 aerosol cfu (range, 1-701) in 10 minutes of coughing. Nearly all (96.4%) cultivable particles were 0.65 to 4.7 µm in size. Positive aerosol cultures were associated with higher Karnofsky performance scores (P = 0.016), higher sputum acid-fast bacilli smear microscopy grades (P = 0.007), lower days to positive in liquid culture (P = 0.004), stronger cough (P = 0.016), and fewer days on TB treatment (P = 0.047). In multivariable analyses, cough aerosol cultures were associated with a salivary/mucosalivary (compared with purulent/mucopurulent) appearance of sputum (odds ratio, 4.42; 95% CI, 1.23-21.43) and low days to positive (per 1-d decrease; odds ratio, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.07-1.33). The within-test (kappa, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.68-0.94) and interday test (kappa, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.43-0.82) reproducibility were high. CONCLUSIONS: A minority of patients with TB (28%) produced culturable cough aerosols. Collection of cough aerosol cultures is feasible and reproducible in a resource-limited setting.

Predictive performance of interferon-gamma release assays and the tuberculin skin test for incident tuberculosis: an individual participant data meta-analysis.

Background: Evidence on the comparative performance of purified protein derivative tuberculin skin tests (TST) and interferon-gamma release assays (IGRA) for predicting incident active tuberculosis (TB) remains conflicting. We conducted an individual participant data meta-analysis to directly compare the predictive performance for incident TB disease between TST and IGRA to inform policy. Methods: We searched Medline and Embase from 1 January 2002 to 4 September 2020, and studies that were included in previous systematic reviews. We included prospective longitudinal studies in which participants received both TST and IGRA and estimated performance as hazard ratios (HR) for the development of all diagnoses of TB in participants with dichotomised positive test results compared to negative results, using different thresholds of positivity for TST. Secondary analyses included an evaluation of the impact of background TB incidence. We also estimated the sensitivity and specificity for predicting TB. We explored heterogeneity through pre-defined sub-group analyses (e.g. country-level TB incidence). Publication bias was assessed using funnel plots and Egger's test. This review is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42020205667. Findings: We obtained data from 13 studies out of 40 that were considered eligible (N = 32,034 participants: 36% from countries with TB incidence rate ≥100 per 100,000 population). All reported data on TST and QuantiFERON Gold in-Tube (QFT-GIT). The point estimate for the TST was highest with higher cut-offs for positivity and particularly when stratified by bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccine (BCG) status (15 mm if BCG vaccinated and 5 mm if not [TST5/15 mm]) at 2.88 (95% CI 1.69-4.90). The pooled HR for QFT-GIT was higher than for TST at 4.15 (95% CI 1.97-8.75). The difference was large in countries with TB incidence rate <100 per 100,000 population (HR 10.38, 95% CI 4.17-25.87 for QFT-GIT VS. HR 5.36, 95% CI 3.82-7.51 for TST5/15 mm) but much of this difference was driven by a single study (HR 5.13, 95% CI 3.58-7.35 for TST5/15 mm VS. 7.18, 95% CI 4.48-11.51 for QFT-GIT, when excluding the study, in which all 19 TB cases had positive QFT-GIT results). The comparative performance was similar in the higher burden countries (HR 1.61, 95% CI 1.23-2.10 for QFT-GIT VS. HR 1.72, 95% CI 0.98-3.01 for TST5/15 mm). The predictive performance of both tests was higher in countries with TB incidence rate <100 per 100,000 population. In the lower TB incidence countries, the specificity of TST (76% for TST5/15 mm) and QFT-GIT (74%) for predicting active TB approached the minimum World Health Organization target (≥75%), but the sensitivity was below the target of ≥75% (63% for TST5/15 mm and 65% for QFT-GIT). The absolute differences in positive and negative predictive values between TST15 mm and QFT-GIT were small (positive predictive values 2.74% VS. 2.46%; negative predictive values 99.42% VS. 99.52% in low-incidence countries). Egger's test did not show evidence of publication bias (0.74 for TST15 mm and p = 0.68 for QFT-GIT). Interpretation: IGRA appears to have higher predictive performance than the TST in low TB incidence countries, but the difference was driven by a single study. Any advantage in clinical performance may be small, given the numerically similar positive and negative predictive values. Both IGRA and TST had lower performance in countries with high TB incidence. Test choice should be contextual and made considering operational and likely clinical impact of test results. Funding: YH, IA, and MXR were supported by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR), United Kingdom (RP-PG-0217-20009). MQ was supported by the Medical Research Council [MC_UU_00004/07].

Infant BCG vaccination and risk of pulmonary and extrapulmonary tuberculosis throughout the life course: a systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: BCG vaccines are given to more than 100 million children every year, but there is considerable debate regarding the effectiveness of BCG vaccination in preventing tuberculosis and death, particularly among older children and adults. We therefore aimed to investigate the age-specific impact of infant BCG vaccination on tuberculosis (pulmonary and extrapulmonary) development and mortality. METHODS: In this systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Web of Science, BIOSIS, and Embase without language restrictions for case-contact cohort studies of tuberculosis contacts published between Jan 1, 1998, and April 7, 2018. Search terms included "mycobacterium tuberculosis", "TB", "tuberculosis", and "contact". We excluded cohort studies that did not provide information on BCG vaccination or were done in countries that did not recommend BCG vaccination at birth. Individual-level participant data for a prespecified list of variables, including the characteristics of the exposed participant (contact), the index case, and the environment, were requested from authors of all eligible studies. Our primary outcome was a composite of prevalent (diagnosed at or within 90 days of baseline) and incident (diagnosed more than 90 days after baseline) tuberculosis in contacts exposed to tuberculosis. Secondary outcomes were pulmonary tuberculosis, extrapulmonary tuberculosis, and mortality. We derived adjusted odds ratios (aORs) using mixed-effects, binary, multivariable logistic regression analyses with study-level random effects, adjusting for the variable of interest, baseline age, sex, previous tuberculosis, and whether data were collected prospectively or retrospectively. We stratified our results by contact age and Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection status. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42020180512. FINDINGS: We identified 14 927 original records from our database searches. We included participant-level data from 26 cohort studies done in 17 countries in our meta-analysis. Among 68 552 participants, 1782 (2·6%) developed tuberculosis (1309 [2·6%] of 49 686 BCG-vaccinated participants vs 473 [2·5%] of 18 866 unvaccinated participants). The overall effectiveness of BCG vaccination against all tuberculosis was 18% (aOR 0·82, 95% CI 0·74-0·91). When stratified by age, BCG vaccination only significantly protected against all tuberculosis in children younger than 5 years (aOR 0·63, 95% CI 0·49-0·81). Among contacts with a positive tuberculin skin test or IFNγ release assay, BCG vaccination significantly protected against tuberculosis among all participants (aOR 0·81, 95% CI 0·69-0·96), participants younger than 5 years (0·68, 0·47-0·97), and participants aged 5-9 years (0·62, 0·38-0·99). There was no protective effect among those with negative tests, unless they were younger than 5 years (0·54, 0·32-0·90). 14 cohorts reported on whether tuberculosis was pulmonary or extrapulmonary (n=57 421). BCG vaccination significantly protected against pulmonary tuberculosis among all participants (916 [2·2%] in 41 119 vaccinated participants vs 334 [2·1%] in 16 161 unvaccinated participants; aOR 0·81, 0·70-0·94) but not against extrapulmonary tuberculosis (106 [0·3%] in 40 318 vaccinated participants vs 38 [0·2%] in 15 865 unvaccinated participants; 0·96, 0·65-1·41). In the four studies with mortality data, BCG vaccination was significantly protective against death (0·25, 0·13-0·49). INTERPRETATION: Our results suggest that BCG vaccination at birth is effective at preventing tuberculosis in young children but is ineffective in adolescents and adults. Immunoprotection therefore needs to be boosted in older populations. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health.

Effectiveness of the standard WHO recommended retreatment regimen (category II) for tuberculosis in Kampala, Uganda: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Each year, 10%-20% of patients with tuberculosis (TB) in low- and middle-income countries present with previously treated TB and are empirically started on a World Health Organization (WHO)-recommended standardized retreatment regimen. The effectiveness of this retreatment regimen has not been systematically evaluated. METHODS AND FINDINGS: From July 2003 to January 2007, we enrolled smear-positive, pulmonary TB patients into a prospective cohort to study treatment outcomes and mortality during and after treatment with the standardized retreatment regimen. Median time of follow-up was 21 months (interquartile range 12-33 months). A total of 29/148 (20%) HIV-uninfected and 37/140 (26%) HIV-infected patients had an unsuccessful treatment outcome. In a multiple logistic regression analysis to adjust for confounding, factors associated with an unsuccessful treatment outcome were poor adherence (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] associated with missing half or more of scheduled doses 2.39; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.10-5.22), HIV infection (2.16; 1.01-4.61), age (aOR for 10-year increase 1.59; 1.13-2.25), and duration of TB symptoms (aOR for 1-month increase 1.12; 1.04-1.20). All patients with multidrug-resistant TB had an unsuccessful treatment outcome. HIV-infected individuals were more likely to die than HIV-uninfected individuals (p<0.0001). Multidrug-resistant TB at enrollment was the only common risk factor for death during follow-up for both HIV-infected (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 17.9; 6.0-53.4) and HIV-uninfected (14.7; 4.1-52.2) individuals. Other risk factors for death during follow-up among HIV-infected patients were CD4<50 cells/ml and no antiretroviral treatment (aHR 7.4, compared to patients with CD4≥200; 3.0-18.8) and Karnofsky score <70 (2.1; 1.1-4.1); and among HIV-uninfected patients were poor adherence (missing half or more of doses) (3.5; 1.1-10.6) and duration of TB symptoms (aHR for a 1-month increase 1.9; 1.0-3.5). CONCLUSIONS: The recommended regimen for retreatment TB in Uganda yields an unacceptable proportion of unsuccessful outcomes. There is a need to evaluate new treatment strategies in these patients.

Mutations in extensively drug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis that do not code for known drug-resistance mechanisms.

BACKGROUND: Highly lethal outbreaks of multidrug-resistant (MDR) and extensively drug-resistant (XDR) tuberculosis are increasing. Whole-genome sequencing of KwaZulu-Natal MDR and XDR outbreak strains prevalent in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients by the Broad Institute identified 22 novel mutations which were unique to the XDR genome or shared only by the MDR and XDR genomes and not already known to be associated with drug resistance. METHODS: We studied the 12 novel mutations which were not located in highly-repetitive genes to identify mutations that were truly associated with drug resistance or were likely to confer a specific fitness advantage. RESULTS: None of these mutations could be found in a phylogenetically and geographically diverse set of drug-resistant and drug-susceptible Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates, suggesting that these mutations are unique to the KZN clone. Examination of the 600-basepair region flanking each mutation revealed 26 new mutations. We searched for a convergent evolutionary signal in the new mutations for evidence that they emerged under selective pressure, consistent with increased fitness. However, all but 1 rare mutation were monophyletic, indicating that the mutations were markers of strain phylogeny rather than fitness or drug resistance. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that virulent XDR tuberculosis in immunocompromised HIV-infected patients can evolve without generalizable fitness changes or other XDR-specific mutations.

Rapid detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis and rifampin resistance by use of on-demand, near-patient technology.

Current nucleic acid amplification methods to detect Mycobacterium tuberculosis are complex, labor-intensive, and technically challenging. We developed and performed the first analysis of the Cepheid Gene Xpert System's MTB/RIF assay, an integrated hands-free sputum-processing and real-time PCR system with rapid on-demand, near-patient technology, to simultaneously detect M. tuberculosis and rifampin resistance. Analytic tests of M. tuberculosis DNA demonstrated a limit of detection (LOD) of 4.5 genomes per reaction. Studies using sputum spiked with known numbers of M. tuberculosis CFU predicted a clinical LOD of 131 CFU/ml. Killing studies showed that the assay's buffer decreased M. tuberculosis viability by at least 8 logs, substantially reducing biohazards. Tests of 23 different commonly occurring rifampin resistance mutations demonstrated that all 23 (100%) would be identified as rifampin resistant. An analysis of 20 nontuberculosis mycobacteria species confirmed high assay specificity. A small clinical validation study of 107 clinical sputum samples from suspected tuberculosis cases in Vietnam detected 29/29 (100%) smear-positive culture-positive cases and 33/39 (84.6%) or 38/53 (71.7%) smear-negative culture-positive cases, as determined by growth on solid medium or on both solid and liquid media, respectively. M. tuberculosis was not detected in 25/25 (100%) of the culture-negative samples. A study of 64 smear-positive culture-positive sputa from retreatment tuberculosis cases in Uganda detected 63/64 (98.4%) culture-positive cases and 9/9 (100%) cases of rifampin resistance. Rifampin resistance was excluded in 54/55 (98.2%) susceptible cases. Specificity rose to 100% after correcting for a conventional susceptibility test error. In conclusion, this highly sensitive and simple-to-use system can detect M. tuberculosis directly from sputum in less than 2 h.

Cross-validation of existing signatures and derivation of a novel 29-gene transcriptomic signature predictive of progression to TB in a Brazilian cohort of household contacts of pulmonary TB.

The goal of this study was to identify individuals at risk of progression and reactivation among household contacts (HHC) of pulmonary TB cases in Vitoria, Brazil. We first evaluated the predictive performance of six published signatures on the transcriptional dataset obtained from peripheral blood mononuclear cell samples from HHC that either progressed to TB disease or not (non-progressors) during a five-year follow-up. The area under the curve (AUC) values for the six signatures ranged from 0.670 to 0.461, and the PPVs did not reach the WHO published target product profiles (TPPs). We therefore used as training cohort the earliest time-point samples from the African cohort of adolescents (GSE79362) and applied an ensemble feature selection pipeline to derive a novel 29-gene signature (PREDICT29). PREDICT29 was tested on 16 progressors and 21 non-progressors. PREDICT29 performed better in segregating progressors from non-progressors in the Brazil cohort with the area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.911 and PPV of 20%. This proof of concept study demonstrates that PREDICT29 can predict risk of progression/reactivation to clinical TB disease in recently exposed individuals at least 5 years prior to disease development. Upon validation in larger and geographically diverse cohorts, PREDICT29 can be used to risk-stratify recently infected for targeted therapy.

Mycobacterium tuberculosis progresses through two phases of latent infection in humans.

Little is known about the physiology of latent Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection. We studied the mutational rates of 24 index tuberculosis (TB) cases and their latently infected household contacts who developed active TB up to 5.25 years later, as an indication of bacterial physiological state and possible generation times during latent TB infection in humans. Here we report that the rate of new mutations in the M. tuberculosis genome decline dramatically after two years of latent infection (two-sided p < 0.001, assuming an 18 h generation time equal to log phase M. tuberculosis, with latency period modeled as a continuous variable). Alternatively, assuming a fixed mutation rate, the generation time increases over the latency duration. Mutations indicative of oxidative stress do not increase with increasing latency duration suggesting a lack of host or bacterial derived mutational stress. These results suggest that M. tuberculosis enters a quiescent state during latency, decreasing the risk for mutational drug resistance and increasing generation time, but potentially increasing bacterial tolerance to drugs that target actively growing bacteria.

Comparison of rapid tests for detection of rifampicin-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis in Kampala, Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Drug resistant tuberculosis (TB) is a growing concern worldwide. Rapid detection of resistance expedites appropriate intervention to control the disease. Several technologies have recently been reported to detect rifampicin resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis directly in sputum samples. These include phenotypic culture based methods, tests for gene mutations and tests based on bacteriophage replication. The aim of the present study was to assess the feasibility of implementing technology for rapid detection of rifampicin resistance in a high disease burden setting in Africa. METHODS: Sputum specimens from re-treatment TB patients presenting to the Mulago Hospital National TB Treatment Centre in Kampala, Uganda, were examined by conventional methods and simultaneously used in one of the four direct susceptibility tests, namely direct BACTEC 460, Etest, "in-house" phage test, and INNO- Rif.TB. The reference method was the BACTEC 460 indirect culture drug susceptibility testing. Test performance, cost and turn around times were assessed. RESULTS: In comparison with indirect BACTEC 460, the respective sensitivities and specificities for detecting rifampicin resistance were 100% and 100% for direct BACTEC and the Etest, 94% and 95% for the phage test, and 87% and 87% for the Inno-LiPA assay. Turn around times ranged from an average of 3 days for the INNO-LiPA and phage tests, 8 days for the direct BACTEC 460 and 20 days for the Etest. All methods were faster than the indirect BACTEC 460 which had a mean turn around time of 24 days. The cost per test, including labour ranged from $18.60 to $41.92 (USD). CONCLUSION: All four rapid technologies were shown capable of detecting rifampicin resistance directly from sputum. The LiPA proved rapid, but was the most expensive. It was noted, however, that the LiPA test allows sterilization of samples prior to testing thereby reducing the risk of accidental laboratory transmission. In contrast the Etest was low cost, but slow and would be of limited assistance when treating patients. The phage test was the least reproducible test studied with failure rate of 27%. The test preferred by the laboratory personnel, direct BACTEC 460, requires further study to determine its accuracy in real-time treatment decisions in Uganda.

Partitioning the risk of tuberculosis transmission in household contact studies.

Household contact studies of tuberculosis (TB) are a common way to study disease transmission dynamics. However these studies lack a mechanism for accounting for community transmission, which is known to be significant, particularly in high burden settings. We illustrate a statistical approach for estimating both the correlates with transmission of TB in a household setting and the probability of community transmission using a modified Bayesian mixed-effects model. This is applied to two household contact studies in Vitória, Brazil from 2008-2013 and Kampala, Uganda from 1995-2004 that enrolled households with an individual that was recently diagnosed with pulmonary TB. We estimate the probability of community transmission to be higher in Uganda (ranging from 0.21 to 0.69, depending on HHC age and HIV status of the index case) than in Brazil (ranging from 0.13 for young children to 0.50 in adults). These estimates are consistent with a higher overall burden of disease in Uganda compared to Brazil. Our method also estimates an increasing risk of community-acquired TB with age of the household contact, consistent with existing literature. This approach is a useful way to integrate the role of the community in understanding TB disease transmission dynamics in household contact studies.