Global Impacts of a Bilateral Trade Policy on Ballast Water-Mediated Species Spread Risk: A Case Study of Sino-US Trade.

A trade policy could generate both economic and environmental impacts. This work is focused on the impacts of a bilateral trade policy on ballast water-mediated nonindigenous species (NIS) spread risk. Taking the hypothetical Sino-US trade restriction as an example, we integrate a computable general equilibrium model and a higher-order NIS spread risk assessment model to examine the impacts of bilateral trade policy on both the economy and NIS spread risks. We have two important findings. First, the Sino-US trade restriction would cause decreases in NIS spread risks to China and the US, as well as to three quarters of worldwide countries/regions. However, the rest one fourth would experience increased NIS spread risks. Second, the relationship between changes in exports and changes in NIS spread risks might not be directly proportional. This is observed with 46% of countries and regions that would see their exports increase but their NIS spread risks drop, with positive impacts on both their economies and environment under the Sino-US trade restriction. These results reveal both broader global impacts as well as the decoupled economic and ecological impacts of a bilateral trade policy. These broader impacts demonstrate the necessity for national governments, which are parties to bilateral agreements to give due consideration to the economic and environmental impacts on countries and regions outside of the agreement.

Estimation of the introduction risk of non-indigenous species through ship ballast water in the Port of Douala (Cameroon).

The transport of non-indigenous species in ship's ballast water represents a threat to marine biodiversity. This study is the first on marine bioinvasion in Sub-Saharan Africa. The Port of Douala (PoD), located in the Gulf of Guinea, is experiencing increasing maritime traffic, hence the importance of preventing biological invasions. PoD received ballast water from 41 ports and 20 ecoregions during the study period (2018-2021). We used a biological invasion model and showed that ships from the ports of Antwerp, Durban, Dar es Salaam, Pointe-Noire (Southern Gulf of Guinea) and Dakar (Sahelian Upwelling), with their associated ecoregions present a major invasion risk. Treating ballast water from these ships to IMO D-2 standards could reduce their probability of biological invasion by 97.18, 98.43, 98.80, 98.77 and 98.84 %, respectively. Climate change may also mitigate the risk of biological invasion, particularly for ships in the North Sea ecoregion from the port of Antwerp.