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BACKGROUND: Mortality related to hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a key indicator for elimination. We assessed the impact of HCV infection and treatment on mortality in the country of Georgia during 2015-2020. METHODS: We conducted a population-based cohort study using data from Georgia's national HCV Elimination Program and death registry. We calculated all-cause mortality rates in 6 cohorts: (1) Negative for anti-HCV; (2) anti-HCV positive, unknown viremia status; (3) current HCV infection and untreated; (4) discontinued treatment; (5) completed treatment, no sustained virologic response (SVR) assessment; (6) completed treatment and achieved SVR. Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate adjusted hazards ratios and confidence intervals. We calculated the cause-specific mortality rates attributable to liver-related causes. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 743 days, 100 371 (5.7%) of 1 764 324 study participants died. The highest mortality rate was observed among HCV infected patients who discontinued treatment (10.62 deaths per 100 PY, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 9.65, 11.68), and untreated group (10.33 deaths per 100 PY, 95% CI: 9.96, 10.71). In adjusted Cox proportional hazards model, the untreated group had almost 6-times higher hazard of death compared to treated groups with or without documented SVR (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 5.56, 95% CI: 4.89, 6.31). Those who achieved SVR had consistently lower liver-related mortality compared to cohorts with current or past exposure to HCV. CONCLUSIONS: This large population-based cohort study demonstrated the marked beneficial association between hepatitis C treatment and mortality. The high mortality rates observed among HCV infected and untreated persons highlights the need to prioritize linkage to care and treatment to achieve elimination goals.
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Hepatitis C Crónica , Hepatitis C , Humanos , Hepacivirus , Antivirales/uso terapéutico , Estudios de Cohortes , Georgia/epidemiología , Hepatitis C/tratamiento farmacológico , Hepatitis C/epidemiología , Hepatitis C Crónica/tratamiento farmacológicoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Understanding the impact of the burden of COVID-19 is key to successfully navigating the COVID-19 pandemic. As part of a larger investigation on COVID-19 mortality impact, this study aims to estimate the Potential Years of Life Lost (PYLL) in 17 countries and territories across the world (Australia, Brazil, Cape Verde, Colombia, Cyprus, France, Georgia, Israel, Kazakhstan, Peru, Norway, England & Wales, Scotland, Slovenia, Sweden, Ukraine, and the United States [USA]). METHODS: Age- and sex-specific COVID-19 death numbers from primary national sources were collected by an international research consortium. The study period was established based on the availability of data from the inception of the pandemic to the end of August 2020. The PYLL for each country were computed using 80 years as the maximum life expectancy. RESULTS: As of August 2020, 442,677 (range: 18-185,083) deaths attributed to COVID-19 were recorded in 17 countries which translated to 4,210,654 (range: 112-1,554,225) PYLL. The average PYLL per death was 8.7 years, with substantial variation ranging from 2.7 years in Australia to 19.3 PYLL in Ukraine. North and South American countries as well as England & Wales, Scotland and Sweden experienced the highest PYLL per 100,000 population; whereas Australia, Slovenia and Georgia experienced the lowest. Overall, males experienced higher PYLL rate and higher PYLL per death than females. In most countries, most of the PYLL were observed for people aged over 60 or 65 years, irrespective of sex. Yet, Brazil, Cape Verde, Colombia, Israel, Peru, Scotland, Ukraine, and the USA concentrated most PYLL in younger age groups. CONCLUSIONS: Our results highlight the role of PYLL as a tool to understand the impact of COVID-19 on demographic groups within and across countries, guiding preventive measures to protect these groups under the ongoing pandemic. Continuous monitoring of PYLL is therefore needed to better understand the burden of COVID-19 in terms of premature mortality.
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COVID-19 , Anciano , Brasil , Femenino , Humanos , Esperanza de Vida , Masculino , Mortalidad , Mortalidad Prematura , Pandemias , SARS-CoV-2 , Estados UnidosRESUMEN
Introduction: Between 2021 and 2023, a project was funded in order to explore the mortality burden (YLL-Years of Life Lost, excess mortality) of COVID-19 in Southern and Eastern Europe, and Central Asia. Methods: For each national or sub-national region, data on COVID-19 deaths and population data were collected for the period March 2020 to December 2021. Unstandardized and age-standardised YLL rates were calculated according to standard burden of disease methodology. In addition, all-cause mortality data for the period 2015-2019 were collected and used as a baseline to estimate excess mortality in each national or sub-national region in the years 2020 and 2021. Results: On average, 15-30 years of life were lost per death in the various countries and regions. Generally, YLL rates per 100,000 were higher in countries and regions in Southern and Eastern Europe compared to Central Asia. However, there were differences in how countries and regions defined and counted COVID-19 deaths. In most countries and sub-national regions, YLL rates per 100,000 (both age-standardised and unstandardized) were higher in 2021 compared to 2020, and higher amongst men compared to women. Some countries showed high excess mortality rates, suggesting under-diagnosis or under-reporting of COVID-19 deaths, and/or relatively large numbers of deaths due to indirect effects of the pandemic. Conclusion: Our results suggest that the COVID-19 mortality burden was greater in many countries and regions in Southern and Eastern Europe compared to Central Asia. However, heterogeneity in the data (differences in the definitions and counting of COVID-19 deaths) may have influenced our results. Understanding possible reasons for the differences was difficult, as many factors are likely to play a role (e.g., differences in the extent of public health and social measures to control the spread of COVID-19, differences in testing strategies and/or vaccination rates). Future cross-country analyses should try to develop structured approaches in an attempt to understand the relative importance of such factors. Furthermore, in order to improve the robustness and comparability of burden of disease indicators, efforts should be made to harmonise case definitions and reporting for COVID-19 deaths across countries.
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COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/mortalidad , COVID-19/epidemiología , Masculino , Femenino , Asia Central/epidemiología , Europa Oriental/epidemiología , Adulto , Persona de Mediana Edad , Anciano , Europa (Continente)/epidemiología , Esperanza de Vida/tendencias , SARS-CoV-2 , Adolescente , Adulto Joven , Costo de Enfermedad , Mortalidad/tendencias , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Lactante , PreescolarRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: This study investigated cause-specific mortality rates in 12 countries during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021. METHODS: We collected weekly cause-specific mortality data from respiratory disease, pneumonia, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer from national vital statistic databases. We calculated excess mortality for respiratory disease (excluding COVID-19 codes), pneumonia, and CVD in 2020 and 2021 by comparing observed weekly against expected mortality based on historical data (2015-2019), accounting for seasonal trends. We used multilevel regression models to investigate the association between country-level pandemic-related variables and cause-specific mortality. RESULTS: Significant reductions in cumulative mortality from respiratory disease and pneumonia were observed in 2020 and/or 2021, except for Georgia, Northern Ireland, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine, which exhibited excess mortality for one or both causes. Australia, Austria, Cyprus, Georgia, and Northern Ireland experienced excess cumulative CVD mortality in 2020 and/or 2021. Australia, Austria, Brazil, Cyprus, Georgia, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Slovenia, experienced increased crude cumulative cancer mortality during 2020 and/or 2021 compared to previous years. Among pandemic-related variables, reported COVID-19 incidence was negatively associated with increased cancer mortality, excess respiratory, (2020) and pneumonia (2021) mortality, and positively associated with respiratory and CVD mortality (2021). Stringency of control measures were negatively associated with excess respiratory disease, CVD, and increased cancer mortality (2021). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence of substantial excess mortality from CVD, and notable reductions in respiratory disease and pneumonia in both years across most countries investigated. Our study also highlights the beneficial impact of stringent control measures in mitigating excess mortality from most causes in 2021.
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COVID-19 , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares , Causas de Muerte , Neoplasias , Humanos , COVID-19/mortalidad , COVID-19/epidemiología , Neoplasias/mortalidad , Neoplasias/epidemiología , Causas de Muerte/tendencias , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/mortalidad , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/epidemiología , Pandemias , SARS-CoV-2 , Enfermedades Respiratorias/mortalidad , Enfermedades Respiratorias/epidemiología , Neumonía/mortalidad , Mortalidad/tendencias , Masculino , Australia/epidemiología , Salud Global/estadística & datos numéricosRESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: To examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality, we estimated excess all-cause mortality in 24 countries for 2020 and 2021, overall and stratified by sex and age. METHODS: Total, age-specific and sex-specific weekly all-cause mortality was collected for 2015-2021 and excess mortality for 2020 and 2021 was calculated by comparing weekly 2020 and 2021 age-standardised mortality rates against expected mortality, estimated based on historical data (2015-2019), accounting for seasonality, and long-term and short-term trends. Age-specific weekly excess mortality was similarly calculated using crude mortality rates. The association of country and pandemic-related variables with excess mortality was investigated using simple and multilevel regression models. RESULTS: Excess cumulative mortality for both 2020 and 2021 was found in Austria, Brazil, Belgium, Cyprus, England and Wales, Estonia, France, Georgia, Greece, Israel, Italy, Kazakhstan, Mauritius, Northern Ireland, Norway, Peru, Poland, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Ukraine, and the USA. Australia and Denmark experienced excess mortality only in 2021. Mauritius demonstrated a statistically significant decrease in all-cause mortality during both years. Weekly incidence of COVID-19 was significantly positively associated with excess mortality for both years, but the positive association was attenuated in 2021 as percentage of the population fully vaccinated increased. Stringency index of control measures was positively and negatively associated with excess mortality in 2020 and 2021, respectively. CONCLUSION: This study provides evidence of substantial excess mortality in most countries investigated during the first 2 years of the pandemic and suggests that COVID-19 incidence, stringency of control measures and vaccination rates interacted in determining the magnitude of excess mortality.
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COVID-19 , Femenino , Masculino , Humanos , Pandemias , Italia , Grecia , Factores de EdadRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate overall and sex-specific excess all-cause mortality since the inception of the COVID-19 pandemic until August 2020 among 22 countries. METHODS: Countries reported weekly or monthly all-cause mortality from January 2015 until the end of June or August 2020. Weekly or monthly COVID-19 deaths were reported for 2020. Excess mortality for 2020 was calculated by comparing weekly or monthly 2020 mortality (observed deaths) against a baseline mortality obtained from 2015-2019 data for the same week or month using two methods: (i) difference in observed mortality rates between 2020 and the 2015-2019 average and (ii) difference between observed and expected 2020 deaths. RESULTS: Brazil, France, Italy, Spain, Sweden, the UK (England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland) and the USA demonstrated excess all-cause mortality, whereas Australia, Denmark and Georgia experienced a decrease in all-cause mortality. Israel, Ukraine and Ireland demonstrated sex-specific changes in all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS: All-cause mortality up to August 2020 was higher than in previous years in some, but not all, participating countries. Geographical location and seasonality of each country, as well as the prompt application of high-stringency control measures, may explain the observed variability in mortality changes.