Simultaneous Analysis of 272 Pesticides in Agricultural Products by the QuEChERS Method and Gas Chromatography with Tandem Mass Spectrometry.

The aim of this study is to develop a rapid and accurate method for simultaneous analysis of multi-residue pesticides and conduct pesticide monitoring in agricultural products produced by the production and distribution stage in Korea. The representative agricultural products were selected as brown rice, soybean, potato, mandarin, and green pepper and developed using gas chromatography with tandem mass (GC-MS/MS) for the analysis of 272 pesticide residues. The experimental samples were extracted by the QuEChERS-EN method and then cleaned up by using d-SPE, including MgSO4 and primary secondary amine (PSA) sorbents. The established method was validated in accordance with Codex CAC-GL/40, and the limit of quantitation (LOQ) was determined to be 0.01 mg/kg. A total of 243 pesticides satisfied the guidelines in five samples at three levels with values of 60 to 120% (recovery) and ≤45% (coefficient of variation, CV). The remaining 29 pesticides did not satisfy the guidelines, and these pesticides are expected to be used as a screening method for the routine inspection of agricultural products. As a result of analyzing 223 agricultural products in South Korea by applying the simultaneous analysis method, none of the detected levels in the samples exceeded the standard values based on maximum residue limits (MRLs). The developed method in this study will be used to inspect residual pesticides in agricultural products, and it is anticipated to contribute to the distribution of safe agricultural products to consumers.

The predicted effect and cost-effectiveness of tailoring colonoscopic surveillance according to mismatch repair gene in patients with Lynch syndrome.

PURPOSE: Lynch syndrome-related colorectal cancer (CRC) risk substantially varies by mismatch repair (MMR) gene. We evaluated the health impact and cost-effectiveness of MMR gene-tailored colonoscopic surveillance. METHODS: We first estimated sex- and MMR gene-specific cumulative lifetime risk of first CRC without colonoscopic surveillance using an optimization algorithm. Next, we harnessed these risk estimates in a microsimulation model, "Policy1-Lynch," and compared 126 colonoscopic surveillance strategies against no surveillance. RESULTS: The most cost-effective strategy was 3-yearly surveillance from age 25 to 70 years (pathogenic variants [path_] in MLH1 [path_MLH1], path_MSH2) with delayed surveillance for path_MSH6 (age 30-70 years) and path_PMS2 (age 35-70 years) heterozygotes (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio = Australian dollars (A) $8,833/life-year saved). This strategy averted 60 CRC deaths (153 colonoscopies per death averted) over the lifetime of 1000 confirmed patients with Lynch syndrome (vs no surveillance). This also reduced colonoscopies by 5% without substantial change in health outcomes (vs nontailored 3-yearly surveillance from 25-70 years). Generally, starting surveillance at age 25 (vs 20) years was more cost-effective with minimal effect on life-years saved and starting 5 to 10 years later for path_MSH6 and path_PMS2 heterozygotes (vs path_MLH1 and path_MSH2) further improved cost-effectiveness. Surveillance end age (70/75/80 years) had a minor effect. Three-yearly surveillance strategies were more cost-effective (vs 1 or 2-yearly) but prevented 3 fewer CRC deaths. CONCLUSION: MMR gene-specific colonoscopic surveillance would be effective and cost-effective.

What would I do? Perspectives on the factors underlying Lynch syndrome genetic testing and results sharing decisions for high-risk colorectal cancer patients.

OBJECTIVE: Universal tumour testing for Lynch syndrome (LS) in all incident colorectal cancers (CRCs) and sequential diagnostic genetic testing is cost-effective in Australia. Because of this, our study aimed to understand factors underlying possible decisions faced by tumour test-positive CRC patients and their at-risk relatives throughout the LS diagnosis pathway. METHODS: Semi-structured telephone interviews were conducted with 23 participants, using four hypothetical scenarios. Vignette-guided closed- and open-ended questions asked about LS genetic testing uptake, discussing diagnosis with at-risk relatives, and risk-reducing interventions. Personal perspectives on genetic testing were collected pre-post vignette discussion. Inductive thematic analysis was performed on open-ended questions. Decisional pathway diagrams were developed to convey factors influencing complex decision-making processes. RESULTS: Participant responses incorporated unfolding scenario information, resulting in three decision themes: (1) wanting to know one's LS status; (2) informing family about LS; (3) navigating risk-reducing interventions. Across all themes, 'knowledge' emerged as a facilitator, and 'negative emotional experience' as a barrier. Personal supportive views toward genetic testing increased post-interview. CONCLUSIONS: When communicating with tumour test-positive CRC patients or their relatives about LS genetic testing, providing guidance/resources to inform decisions around risk-reducing interventions and informing family members is critical. Scenario-driven interviews provide insight into what individuals might do when facing complex healthcare decisions and could aid informed decision-making. This approach may be applicable in other conditions, particularly with mainstreaming being increasingly introduced into the genetic context.

Lynch syndrome testing of colorectal cancer patients in a high-income country with universal healthcare: a retrospective study of current practice and gaps in seven australian hospitals.

BACKGROUND: To inform effective genomic medicine strategies, it is important to examine current approaches and gaps in well-established applications. Lynch syndrome (LS) causes 3-5% of colorectal cancers (CRCs). While guidelines commonly recommend LS tumour testing of all CRC patients, implementation in health systems is known to be highly variable. To provide insights on the heterogeneity in practice and current bottlenecks in a high-income country with universal healthcare, we characterise the approaches and gaps in LS testing and referral in seven Australian hospitals across three states. METHODS: We obtained surgery, pathology, and genetics services data for 1,624 patients who underwent CRC resections from 01/01/2017 to 31/12/2018 in the included hospitals. RESULTS: Tumour testing approaches differed between hospitals, with 0-19% of patients missing mismatch repair deficiency test results (total 211/1,624 patients). Tumour tests to exclude somatic MLH1 loss were incomplete at five hospitals (42/187 patients). Of 74 patients with tumour tests completed appropriately and indicating high risk of LS, 36 (49%) were missing a record of referral to genetics services for diagnostic testing, with higher missingness for older patients (0% of patients aged ≤ 40 years, 76% of patients aged > 70 years). Of 38 patients with high-risk tumour test results and genetics services referral, diagnostic testing was carried out for 25 (89%) and identified a LS pathogenic/likely pathogenic variant for 11 patients (44% of 25; 0.7% of 1,624 patients). CONCLUSIONS: Given the LS testing and referral gaps, further work is needed to identify strategies for successful integration of LS testing into clinical care, and provide a model for hereditary cancers and broader genomic medicine. Standardised reporting may help clinicians interpret tumour test results and initiate further actions.

The predicted impact and cost-effectiveness of systematic testing of people with incident colorectal cancer for Lynch syndrome.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the health impact and cost-effectiveness of systematic testing for Lynch syndrome (LS) in people with incident colorectal cancer (CRC) in Australia. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: We investigated the impact of LS testing strategies in a micro-simulation model (Policy1-Lynch), explicitly modelling the cost of testing all patients diagnosed with incident CRC during 2017, with detailed modelling of outcomes for patients identified as LS carriers (probands) and their at-risk relatives throughout their lifetimes. For people with confirmed LS, we modelled ongoing colonoscopic surveillance. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cost-effectiveness of six universal tumour testing strategies (testing for DNA mismatch repair deficiencies) and of universal germline gene panel testing of patients with incident CRC; impact on cost-effectiveness of restricting testing by age at CRC diagnosis (all ages, under 50/60/70 years) and of colonoscopic surveillance interval (one, two years). RESULTS: The cost-effectiveness ratio of universal tumour testing strategies (annual colonoscopic surveillance, no testing age limit) compared with no testing ranged from $28 915 to $31 904/life-year saved (LYS) (indicative willingness-to-pay threshold: $30 000-$50 000/LYS). These strategies could avert 184-189 CRC deaths with an additional 30 597-31 084 colonoscopies over the lifetimes of 1000 patients with incident CRC with LS and 1420 confirmed LS carrier relatives (164-166 additional colonoscopies/death averted). The most cost-effective strategy was immunohistochemistry and BRAF V600E testing (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [ICER], $28 915/LYS). Universal germline gene panel testing was not cost-effective compared with universal tumour testing strategies (ICER, $2.4 million/LYS). Immunohistochemistry and BRAF V600E testing was cost-effective at all age limits when paired with 2-yearly colonoscopic surveillance (ICER, $11 525-$32 153/LYS), and required 4778-15 860 additional colonoscopies to avert 46-181 CRC deaths (88-103 additional colonoscopies/death averted). CONCLUSIONS: Universal tumour testing strategies for guiding germline genetic testing of people with incident CRC for LS in Australia are likely to be cost-effective compared with no testing. Universal germline gene panel testing would not currently be cost-effective.

Vulvar cancer in high-income countries: Increasing burden of disease.

The aim of this study was to assess trends in the age-specific incidence of vulvar cancer in 13 high-income countries satisfying a priori conditions regarding the availability of cancer registry data over a 20-year period; these were Canada, the United States, nine European countries, Australia and Japan. Five-yearly incidence and population at risk were obtained from the International Agency for Research on Cancer's Cancer Incidence in Five Continents for the years 1988-1992 (Volume 7) to 2003-2007 (Volume 10). The 5-yearly average percent change (AvPC) over the period and standardised rate ratios (SRRs) for 2003-2007 versus 1988-1992 were used to assess changes in the age-standardised incidence rates of vulvar cancer for all ages, and for <60 years and 60+ years. During the study period, the 5-yearly AvPC across the 13 countries increased by 4.6% (p = 0.005) in women of all ages, and 11.6% (p = 0.02) in those <60 years. No change was observed in women aged 60+ years (5-yearly AvPC = 0.1%, p = 0.94). The SRR for 2003-2007 versus 1988-1992 was significantly elevated in women <60 years of age (SRR = 1.38, 95% CI: 1.30-1.46), but not in women of 60+ years (SRR = 1.01, 95% CI: 0.97-1.05). The increase in incidence in women <60 years of age drove a significant increase in the overall SRR in women of all ages (SRR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.11-1.18). Some differences in the specific findings at the individual country level were observed. The findings are consistent with changing sexual behaviours and increasing levels of exposure to human papillomavirus (HPV) in cohorts born around/after about 1950, but younger cohorts offered HPV vaccination are likely to receive some protection against developing vulvar cancer in the future.

Identifying high risk individuals for targeted lung cancer screening: Independent validation of the PLCOm2012 risk prediction tool.

Lung cancer screening with computerised tomography holds promise, but optimising the balance of benefits and harms via selection of a high risk population is critical. PLCOm2012 is a logistic regression model based on U.S. data, incorporating sociodemographic and health factors, which predicts 6-year lung cancer risk among ever-smokers, and thus may better predict those who might benefit from screening than criteria based solely on age and smoking history. We aimed to validate the performance of PLCOm2012 in predicting lung cancer outcomes in a cohort of Australian smokers. Predicted risk of lung cancer was calculated using PLCOm2012 applied to baseline data from 95,882 ever-smokers aged ≥45 years in the 45 and Up Study (2006-2009). Predictions were compared to lung cancer outcomes captured to June 2014 via linkage to population-wide health databases; a total of 1,035 subsequent lung cancer diagnoses were identified. PLCOm2012 had good discrimination (area under the receiver-operating-characteristic-curve; AUC 0.80, 95%CI 0.78-0.81) and excellent calibration (mean and 90th percentiles of absolute risk difference between observed and predicted outcomes: 0.006 and 0.016, respectively). Sensitivity (69.4%, 95%CI, 65.6-73.0%) of the PLCOm2012 criteria in the 55-74 year age group for predicting lung cancers was greater than that using criteria based on ≥30 pack-years smoking and ≤15 years quit (57.3%, 53.3-61.3%; p < 0.0001), but specificity was lower (72.0%, 71.7-72.4% versus 75.2%, 74.8-75.6%, respectively; p < 0.0001). Targeting high risk people for lung cancer screening using PLCOm2012 might improve the balance of benefits versus harms, and cost-effectiveness of lung cancer screening.

The role of the addition of ovarian suppression to tamoxifen in young women with hormone-sensitive breast cancer who remain premenopausal or regain menstruation after chemotherapy (ASTRRA): study protocol for a randomized controlled trial and progress.

BACKGROUND: Ovarian function suppression (OFS) has been shown to be effective as adjuvant endocrine therapy in premenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer. However, it is currently unclear if addition of OFS to standard tamoxifen therapy after completion of adjuvant chemotherapy results in a survival benefit. In 2008, the Korean Breast Cancer Society Study Group initiated the ASTRRA randomized phase III trial to evaluate the efficacy of OFS in addition to standard tamoxifen treatment in hormone receptor-positive breast cancer patients who remain or regain premenopausal status after chemotherapy. METHODS: Premenopausal women with estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer treated with definitive surgery were enrolled after completion of neoadjuvant or adjuvant chemotherapy. Ovarian function was assessed at the time of enrollment and every 6 months for 2 years by follicular-stimulating hormone levels and bleeding history. If ovarian function was confirmed as premenopausal status, the patient was randomized to receive 2 years of goserelin plus 5 years of tamoxifen treatment or 5 years of tamoxifen alone. The primary end point will be the comparison of the 5-year disease-free survival rates between the OFS and tamoxifen alone groups. Patient recruitment was finished on March 2014 with the inclusion of a total of 1483 patients. The interim analysis will be performed at the time of the observation of the 187th event. DISCUSSION: This study will provide evidence of the benefit of OFS plus tamoxifen compared with tamoxifen only in premenopausal patients with estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer treated with chemotherapy. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT00912548 . Registered May 31 2009. Korean Breast Cancer Society Study Group Register KBCSG005 . Registered October 26 2009.

Effect of changes in treatment practice on survival for cervical cancer: results from a population-based study in Manitoba, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Results from clinical trials in the 1990s led to changes in the recommended treatment for the standard therapy for stage IIB-IVA cervical cancer from radiotherapy alone to chemo-radiotherapy. We conducted the first population-based study in Canada to investigate temporal treatment patterns for cervical cancer and long-term survival in relation to these changes in the treatment guidelines. METHODS: Detailed information on stage and treatment for 1085 patients diagnosed with cervical cancer in 1984-2008 and identified from the population-based Manitoba Cancer Registry (MCR) in Canada was obtained from clinical chart review and the MCR. Factors associated with receiving guideline treatment were identified using logistic regression. All cause and cervical cancer specific survival were compared in patients who were and were not treated as recommended in the guidelines, using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: The median follow-up time was 6.4 years (range: 0.05-26.5 years). The proportion of women who received guideline treatment was 79 % (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 76-81 %). However, the likelihood of being treated according to the guidelines over time was modified by age (p < 0.0001) and tumour stage at diagnosis (p = 0.002). Women who were treated according to the guidelines after the change in recommended clinical practice (1999-2008) had a significantly lower risk of death from all causes and from cervical cancer. This was driven by lower mortality rates in cases with stage IIB-IVA tumours (all causes of death: hazard ratio [HR] = 0.60, 95 % CI: 0.43-0.82, p = 0.002; cervical cancer related death: HR = 0.64, 95 % CI: 0.44-0.93, p = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: The management of cervical cancer patients in Manitoba, Canada was in good agreement with treatment guidelines although reasons for departure from the guideline recommendations could not be examined further due to lack of data. Treatment of stage IIB-IVA cervical cancers with recommended concurrent chemo-radiotherapy, which is now standard practice, was associated with substantially increased survival, although the effect of changes in clinical practice including maintenance of haemoglobin levels on improved survival cannot be ruled out as a contributing factor.

Pre-vaccination type-specific HPV prevalence in confirmed cervical high grade lesions in the Maori and non-Maori populations in New Zealand.

BACKGROUND: New Zealand initiated HPV vaccination in 2008, and has attained 3-dose coverage of ~50 % in 12-13 year old girls. Due to the success of program initiatives in Maori girls, higher coverage rates of ~60 % have been achieved in this group. We have previously reported a benchmark overall pre-vaccination prevalence of oncogenic HPV infection in high grade cervical lesions in New Zealand. The current extended analysis provides separate pre-vaccination benchmark prevalence for Maori and non-Maori women. METHODS: The National Cervical Screening Programme Register (NCSP-R) was used to identify any woman aged 20-69 years of age with an index high grade cytology report from 2009-2011. Extended recruitment was performed until 2012 in clinics with a high proportion of Maori women. Ethnicity status was based on self-reported information by participating women through phone contact supplemented by recordings on the study questionnaire (the NCSP-R was not used to extract ethnicity status). A total of 730 women consented to participate and had a valid HPV test result; 418 of these had histologically-confirmed cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 2/3 lesions (149 Maori, 269 non-Maori). The prevalence of any cervical oncogenic HPV infection, HPV16, and HPV18 was calculated in women with CIN2/3. RESULTS: In confirmed CIN2/3, the prevalence of any oncogenic HPV, HPV16 and HPV18 was 96 % (95 % CI:91-99 %), 54 % (95 % CI:46-63 %), 11 % (95 % CI:7-18 %) in Maori and 96 % (95 % CI:93-98 %), 54 % (95 % CI:48-60 %), 11 % (95 % CI:7-15 %) in non-Maori women, respectively. Age-specific patterns of infection for HPV16/18 in confirmed CIN2/3 differed between the two groups (Pinteraction = 0.02), with a lower prevalence in younger vs. older Maori women (57 % in 20-29 years vs 75 % in 40-69 years) but a higher prevalence in younger vs. older non-Maori women (70 % in 20-29 years vs 49 % in 40-69 years); the difference in the age-specific patterns of infection for HPV16/18 was not significant either when considering confirmed CIN2 alone (p = 0.09) or CIN3 alone (p = 0.22). CONCLUSIONS: The overall prevalence of vaccine-included types in CIN2/3 was similar in Maori and non-Maori women, implying that the long-term effects of vaccination will be similar in the two groups.

Changing Trends in Vulvar Cancer Incidence and Mortality Rates in Australia Since 1982.

BACKGROUND: The objective of this study was to assess trends in vulvar cancer incidence and mortality in Australia. METHODS: Case numbers for invasive carcinoma of the vulva (1982-2009) and vulvar cancer deaths (1982-2011) were obtained from the National Cancer Statistics database. Standardized rate ratios (SRRs) were used to assess changes in age-standardized incidence and mortality rates, for all ages and for younger than 60 years and 60+ years. RESULTS: Age-standardized incidence rates in women across all ages did not significantly change from 1982-1984 to 2007-2009 (from 2.1 to 2.5 per 100,000 women; SRR from the later to the earlier period, 1.13 [95% CI, 1.00-1.27]). However, there was a significant 84% increase in incidence in women younger than 60 years (SRR, 1.84 [95% CI, 1.49-2.26]), with no change for women 60+ years (SRR, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.79-1.04]). Age-standardized mortality in women across all ages significantly decreased by 22% from 1982-1986 to 2007-2011 (from 0.7 to 0.5 per 100,000 women; SRR, 0.78 [95% CI, 0.66-0.93]). However, this was driven by declines in older women, with stable rates in women younger than 60 years (SRR, 1.05 [95% CI, 0.62-1.79]); rates in 60+ years decreased by 24% (SRR, 0.76 [95% CI, 0.63-0.91]). CONCLUSION: Since the early 1980s, vulvar cancer incidence has increased by more than 80% in women younger than 60 years in Australia, but there has been no increased incidence in older women. These findings are consistent with the possibility of increased exposure to the human papillomavirus in cohorts born after 1950. By contrast, age-standardized vulvar cancer mortality rates have been stable in younger women, but have declined in older women.

Treatment results for spontaneous isolated superior mesenteric artery dissection according to our previous guidelines and collective literature review.

BACKGROUND: Isolated superior mesenteric artery dissection (ISMAD) is not a rare disease. However, its optimal treatment strategy has not yet been established. METHODS: This study included 13 consecutive patients with ISMAD who were treated between April 2010 and July 2013 according to published treatment guidelines. Through a literature search, 10 studies on treatments and outcomes for ISMAD that were published from 2007 to the present were analyzed. RESULTS: In the present study, 11 patients had acute onset abdominal pain and 2 patients were asymptomatic. Twelve patients were treated with conservative treatment, whereas 1 patient underwent coil embolization. In the literature review, initial conservative treatment, endovascular procedure, and surgical repair were done in 172, 25, and 14 patients, respectively. Bowel resection was done in 8 patients (3.7%) due to bowel necrosis. Conservative treatment failed in 15 patients (6.8%) during follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: If bowel necrosis or arterial rupture was not present, conservative treatment of ISMAD was a safe and effective treatment. Aneurysmal type IV patients on computed tomography scan should be carefully followed up, and if there is a recurrence of pain or aneurysmal progression, an endovascular procedure could be safely performed.

Successful treatment of recurrent focal segmental glomerulosclerosis with a low dose rituximab in a kidney transplant recipient.

Recurrence of focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS) is a major therapeutic challenge in kidney transplantation (KT). Although intensive plasmapheresis and high-dose rituximab have been introduced to treat recurrent FSGS, the most effective dosage and regimen of rituximab have not been determined. Herein we reported the first case of successful treatment of recurrent FSGS with a low-dose rituximab. The patient showed marked proteinuria (3.5 g/d) and oliguria 2 d after KT. Two courses of plasmapheresis and immunoglobulin were applied to the patient, however, nephrotic range proteinuria persisted and creatinine level increased to 3.56 mg/dL. Five months post-transplant, the patient received injection with only one dose of rituximab 100 mg, without further plasmapheresis, which resulted in immediate reduction of serum creatinine and full remission of proteinuria during the following 18 months. This case suggested that recurrent FSGS, which frequently relapses after plasmapheresis, could be treated successfully with a low-dose rituximab even without plasmapheresis.

Systematic review of NTRK 1/2/3 fusion prevalence pan-cancer and across solid tumours.

NTRK gene fusions are rare somatic mutations found across cancer types with promising targeted therapies emerging. Healthcare systems face significant challenges in integrating these treatments, with uncertainty in prevalence and optimal testing methods to identify eligible patients. We performed a systematic review of NTRK fusion prevalence to inform efficient diagnostic screening and scale of therapeutic uptake. We searched Medline, Embase and Cochrane databases on 31/03/2021. Inclusion criteria were studies reporting fusion rates in solid tumours, English language, post-2010 publication and minimum sample size. Critical appraisal was performed using a custom 11-item checklist. Rates were collated by cancer type and pooled if additional synthesis criteria were met. 160 studies were included, with estimates for 15 pan-cancer and 429 specific cancer types (63 paediatric). Adult pan-cancer estimates ranged 0.03-0.70%, with higher rates found in RNA-based assays. In common cancers, rates were consistently below 0.5%. Rare morphological subtypes, colorectal microsatellite instability, and driver mutation exclusion cancers had higher rates. Only 35.6% of extracted estimates used appropriate methods and sample size to identify NTRK fusions. NTRK fusion-positive cancers are rare and widely distributed across solid tumours. Small-scale, heterogeneous data confound prevalence prediction. Further large-scale, standardised genomic data are needed to characterise NTRK fusion epidemiology.

Skin cancer-related conditions managed in general practice in Australia, 2000-2016: a nationally representative, cross-sectional survey.

OBJECTIVE: Skin cancer is Australia's most common and costly cancer. We examined the frequency of Australian general practice consultations for skin cancer-related conditions, by patient and general practitioner (GP) characteristics and by time period. DESIGN: Nationally representative, cross-sectional survey of general practice clinical activity. SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: Patients aged 15 years or older having a skin cancer-related condition managed by GPs in the Bettering the Evaluation And Care of Health study between April 2000 and March 2016. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Proportions and rates per 1000 encounters. RESULTS: In this period, 15 678 GPs recorded 1 370 826 patient encounters, of which skin cancer-related conditions were managed 65 411 times (rate of 47.72 per 1000 encounters, 95% CI 46.41 to 49.02). Across the whole period, 'skin conditions' managed were solar keratosis (29.87%), keratinocyte cancer (24.85%), other skin lesion (12.93%), nevi (10.98%), skin check (10.37%), benign skin neoplasm (8.76%) and melanoma (2.42%). Over time, management rates increased for keratinocyte cancers, skin checks, skin lesions, benign skin neoplasms and melanoma; but remained stable for solar keratoses and nevi. Skin cancer-related encounter rates were higher for patients aged 65-89 years, male, living in Queensland or in regional or remote areas, with lower area-based socioeconomic status, of English-speaking background, Veteran card holders and non-healthcare card holders; and for GPs who were aged 35-44 years or male. CONCLUSION: These findings show the spectrum and burden of skin cancer-related conditions managed in general practice in Australia, which can guide GP education, policy and interventions to optimise skin cancer prevention and management.

Combined population genomic screening for three high-risk conditions in Australia: a modelling study.

Background: No previous health-economic evaluation has assessed the impact and cost-effectiveness of offering combined adult population genomic screening for mutliple high-risk conditions in a national public healthcare system. Methods: This modeling study assessed the impact of offering combined genomic screening for hereditary breast and ovarian cancer, Lynch syndrome and familial hypercholesterolaemia to all young adults in Australia, compared with the current practice of clinical criteria-based testing for each condition separately. The intervention of genomic screening, assumed as an up-front single cost in the first annual model cycle, would detect pathogenic variants in seven high-risk genes. The simulated population was 18-40 year-olds (8,324,242 individuals), modelling per-sample test costs ranging AU$100-$1200 (base-case AU$200) from the year 2023 onwards with testing uptake of 50%. Interventions for identified high-risk variant carriers follow current Australian guidelines, modelling imperfect uptake and adherence. Outcome measures were morbidity and mortality due to cancer (breast, ovarian, colorectal and endometrial) and coronary heart disease (CHD) over a lifetime horizon, from healthcare-system and societal perspectives. Outcomes included quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), discounted 5% annually (with 3% discounting in scenario analysis). Findings: Over the population lifetime (to age 80 years), the model estimated that genomic screening per-100,000 individuals would lead to 747 QALYs gained by preventing 63 cancers, 31 CHD cases and 97 deaths. In the total model population, this would translate to 31,094 QALYs gained by preventing 2612 cancers, 542 non-fatal CHD events and 4047 total deaths. At AU$200 per-test, genomic screening would require an investment of AU$832 million for screening of 50% of the population. Our findings suggest that this intervention would be cost-effective from a healthcare-system perspective, yielding an ICER of AU$23,926 (∼£12,050/€14,110/US$15,345) per QALY gained over the status quo. In scenario analysis with 3% discounting, an ICER of AU$4758/QALY was obtained. Sensitivity analysis for the base case indicated that combined genomic screening would be cost-effective under 70% of simulations, cost-saving under 25% and not cost-effective under 5%. Threshold analysis showed that genomic screening would be cost-effective under the AU$50,000/QALY willingness-to-pay threshold at per-test costs up to AU$325 (∼£164/€192/US$208). Interpretation: Our findings suggest that offering combined genomic screening for high-risk conditions to young adults would be cost-effective in the Australian public healthcare system, at currently realistic testing costs. Other matters, including psychosocial impacts, ethical and societal issues, and implementation challenges, also need consideration. Funding: Australian Government, Department of Health, Medical Research Future Fund, Genomics Health Futures Mission (APP2009024). National Heart Foundation Future Leader Fellowship (102604).

Expenditure and resource utilisation for cervical screening in Australia.

BACKGROUND: The National Cervical Screening Program in Australia currently recommends that women aged 18-69 years are screened with conventional cytology every 2 years. Publicly funded HPV vaccination was introduced in 2007, and partly as a consequence, a renewal of the screening program that includes a review of screening recommendations has recently been announced. This study aimed to provide a baseline for such a review by quantifying screening program resource utilisation and costs in 2010. METHODS: A detailed model of current cervical screening practice in Australia was constructed and we used data from the Victorian Cervical Cytology Registry to model age-specific compliance with screening and follow-up. We applied model-derived rate estimates to the 2010 Australian female population to calculate costs and numbers of colposcopies, biopsies, treatments for precancer and cervical cancers in that year, assuming that the numbers of these procedures were not yet substantially impacted by vaccination. RESULTS: The total cost of the screening program in 2010 (excluding administrative program overheads) was estimated to be A$194.8M. We estimated that a total of 1.7 million primary screening smears costing $96.7M were conducted, a further 188,900 smears costing $10.9M were conducted to follow-up low grade abnormalities, 70,900 colposcopy and 34,100 histological evaluations together costing $21.2M were conducted, and about 18,900 treatments for precancerous lesions were performed (including retreatments), associated with a cost of $45.5M for treatment and post-treatment follow-up. We also estimated that $20.5M was spent on work-up and treatment for approximately 761 women diagnosed with invasive cervical cancer. Overall, an estimated $23 was spent in 2010 for each adult woman in Australia on cervical screening program-related activities. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately half of the total cost of the screening program is spent on delivery of primary screening tests; but the introduction of HPV vaccination, new technologies, increasing the interval and changing the age range of screening is expected to have a substantial impact on this expenditure, as well as having some impact on follow-up and management costs. These estimates provide a benchmark for future assessment of the impact of changes to screening program recommendations to the costs of cervical screening in Australia.

A scoping review and meta-analysis on the prevalence of pan-tumour biomarkers (dMMR, MSI, high TMB) in different solid tumours.

Immune checkpoint inhibitors have been approved in the USA for tumours exhibiting mismatch repair deficiency (dMMR), microsatellite instability (MSI), or high tumour mutational burden (TMB), with regulatory and reimbursement applications in multiple other countries underway. As the estimated budget impacts of future reimbursements depend on the size of the potential target population, we performed a scoping review and meta-analysis of the prevalence of these pan-tumour biomarkers in different cancers. We systematically searched Medline/Embase and included studies reporting the prevalence of dMMR/MSI/high TMB in solid tumours published 01/01/2018-31/01/2021. Meta-analyses were performed separately for the pan-cancer prevalence of each biomarker, and by cancer type and stage where possible. The searches identified 3890 papers, with 433 prevalence estimates for 32 different cancer types from 201 studies included in meta-analyses. The pooled overall prevalence of dMMR, MSI and high TMB (≥ 10 mutations/Mb) in pan-cancer studies was 2.9%, 2.7% and 14.0%, respectively. The prevalence profiles of dMMR/MSI and high TMB differed across cancer types. For example, endometrial, colorectal, small bowel and gastric cancers showed high prevalence of both dMMR and MSI (range: 8.7-26.8% and 8.5-21.9%, respectively) and high TMB (range: 8.5-43.0%), while cervical, esophageal, bladder/urothelial, lung and skin cancers showed low prevalence of dMMR and MSI (< 5%), but high prevalence of high TMB (range: 23.7-52.6%). For other cancer types, prevalence of all three biomarkers was generally low (< 5%). This structured review of dMMR/MSI/high TMB prevalence across cancers and for specific cancer types and stages provide timely evidence to inform budget impact forecasts in health technology assessments for drug approvals based on these pan-tumour biomarkers.

Stacking ensemble learning model to predict 6-month mortality in ischemic stroke patients.

Patients with acute ischemic stroke can benefit from reperfusion therapy. Nevertheless, there are gray areas where initiation of reperfusion therapy is neither supported nor contraindicated by the current practice guidelines. In these situations, a prediction model for mortality can be beneficial in decision-making. This study aimed to develop a mortality prediction model for acute ischemic stroke patients not receiving reperfusion therapies using a stacking ensemble learning model. The model used an artificial neural network as an ensemble classifier. Seven base classifiers were K-nearest neighbors, support vector machine, extreme gradient boosting, random forest, naive Bayes, artificial neural network, and logistic regression algorithms. From the clinical data in the International Stroke Trial database, we selected a concise set of variables assessable at the presentation. The primary study outcome was all-cause mortality at 6 months. Our stacking ensemble model predicted 6-month mortality with acceptable performance in ischemic stroke patients not receiving reperfusion therapy. The area under the curve of receiver-operating characteristics, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of the stacking ensemble classifier on a put-aside validation set were 0.783 (95% confidence interval 0.758-0.808), 71.6% (69.3-74.2), 72.3% (69.2-76.4%), and 70.9% (68.9-74.3%), respectively.

The Risk-Reducing Effect of Aspirin in Lynch Syndrome Carriers: Development and Evaluation of an Educational Leaflet.

Carriers of germline mutations in genes associated with Lynch syndrome are at increased risk for colorectal, endometrial, ovarian, and other cancers. There is evidence that daily consumption of aspirin may reduce cancer risk in these individuals. There is a need for educational resources to inform carriers of the risk-reducing effects of aspirin or to support decision-making. An educational leaflet describing the risks and benefits of using aspirin as risk-reducing medicine in carriers of Lynch-syndrome-related mutations is developed and pilot tested in 2017. Carriers are ascertained through a familial cancer clinic and surveyed using a mailed, self-administered questionnaire. The leaflet is highly rated for its content, clarity, length, relevance, and visual appeal by more than 70% of the participants. Most participants (91%) report "a lot" or "quite a bit" of improvement in perceived understanding in knowledge about who might benefit from taking aspirin, its benefits, how long to take it, the reduction in bowel cancer risk, and the optimal dosage. A few (14%) participants seek more information on the dosage of aspirin. This leaflet will be useful as an aid to facilitate discussion between patients and their health care professionals about the use of aspirin as a risk-reducing medication.