The ASSESS-AKI Study found urinary epidermal growth factor is associated with reduced risk of major adverse kidney events.

Biomarkers of tubular function such as epidermal growth factor (EGF) may improve prognostication of participants at highest risk for chronic kidney disease (CKD) after hospitalization. To examine this, we measured urinary EGF (uEGF) from samples collected in the Assessment, Serial Evaluation, and Subsequent Sequelae of Acute Kidney Injury (ASSESS-AKI) Study, a multi-center, prospective, observational cohort of hospitalized participants with and without AKI. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to investigate the association of uEGF/Cr at hospitalization, three months post-discharge, and the change between these time points with major adverse kidney events (MAKE): CKD incidence, progression, or development of kidney failure. Clinical findings were paired with mechanistic studies comparing relative Egf expression in mouse models of kidney atrophy or repair after ischemia-reperfusion injury. MAKE was observed in 20% of 1,509 participants over 4.3 years of follow-up. Each 2-fold higher level of uEGF/Cr at three months was associated with decreased risk of MAKE (adjusted hazards ratio 0.46, 95% confidence interval: 0.39-0.55). Participants with the highest increase in uEGF/Cr from hospitalization to three-month follow-up had a lower risk of MAKE (adjusted hazards ratio 0.52; 95% confidence interval: 0.36-0.74) compared to those with the least change in uEGF/Cr. A model using uEGF/Cr at three months combined with clinical variables yielded moderate discrimination for MAKE (area under the curve 0.73; 95% confidence interval: 0.69-0.77) and strong discrimination for kidney failure at four years (area under the curve 0.96; 95% confidence interval: 0.92-1.00). Accelerated restoration of Egf expression in mice was seen in the model of adaptive repair after injury, compared to a model of progressive atrophy. Thus, urinary EGF/Cr may be a biomarker of distal tubular health, with higher concentrations and increased uEGF/Cr post-discharge independently associated with reduced risk of MAKE in hospitalized patients.

Integrated Analysis of Blood and Urine Biomarkers to Identify Acute Kidney Injury Subphenotypes and Associations With Long-term Outcomes.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a heterogeneous clinical syndrome with varying causes, pathophysiology, and outcomes. We incorporated plasma and urine biomarker measurements to identify AKI subgroups (subphenotypes) more tightly linked to underlying pathophysiology and long-term clinical outcomes. STUDY DESIGN: Multicenter cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 769 hospitalized adults with AKI matched with 769 without AKI, enrolled from December 2009 to February 2015 in the ASSESS-AKI Study. PREDICTORS: 29 clinical, plasma, and urinary biomarker parameters used to identify AKI subphenotypes. OUTCOME: Composite of major adverse kidney events (MAKE) with a median follow-up period of 4.7 years. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Latent class analysis (LCA) and k-means clustering were applied to 29 clinical, plasma, and urinary biomarker parameters. Associations between AKI subphenotypes and MAKE were analyzed using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: Among 769 AKI patients both LCA and k-means identified 2 distinct AKI subphenotypes (classes 1 and 2). The long-term risk for MAKE was higher with class 2 (adjusted HR, 1.41 [95% CI, 1.08-1.84]; P=0.01) compared with class 1, adjusting for demographics, hospital level factors, and KDIGO stage of AKI. The higher risk of MAKE among class 2 was explained by a higher risk of long-term chronic kidney disease progression and dialysis. The top variables that were different between classes 1 and 2 included plasma and urinary biomarkers of inflammation and epithelial cell injury; serum creatinine ranked 20th out of the 29 variables for differentiating classes. LIMITATIONS: A replication cohort with simultaneously collected blood and urine sampling in hospitalized adults with AKI and long-term outcomes was unavailable. CONCLUSIONS: We identify 2 molecularly distinct AKI subphenotypes with differing risk of long-term outcomes, independent of the current criteria to risk stratify AKI. Future identification of AKI subphenotypes may facilitate linking therapies to underlying pathophysiology to prevent long-term sequalae after AKI. PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY: Acute kidney injury (AKI) occurs commonly in hospitalized patients and is associated with high morbidity and mortality. The AKI definition lumps many different types of AKI together, but subgroups of AKI may be more tightly linked to the underlying biology and clinical outcomes. We used 29 different clinical, blood, and urinary biomarkers and applied 2 different statistical algorithms to identify AKI subtypes and their association with long-term outcomes. Both clustering algorithms identified 2 AKI subtypes with different risk of chronic kidney disease, independent of the serum creatinine concentrations (the current gold standard to determine severity of AKI). Identification of AKI subtypes may facilitate linking therapies to underlying biology to prevent long-term consequences after AKI.

Plasma Soluble Tumor Necrosis Factor Receptor Concentrations and Clinical Events After Hospitalization: Findings From the ASSESS-AKI and ARID Studies.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: The role of plasma soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 (sTNFR1) and sTNFR2 in the prognosis of clinical events after hospitalization with or without acute kidney injury (AKI) is unknown. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cohort. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: Hospital survivors from the ASSESS-AKI (Assessment, Serial Evaluation, and Subsequent Sequelae of Acute Kidney Injury) and ARID (AKI Risk in Derby) studies with and without AKI during the index hospitalization who had baseline serum samples for biomarker measurements. PREDICTORS: We measured sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 from plasma samples obtained 3 months after discharge. OUTCOMES: The associations of biomarkers with longitudinal kidney disease incidence and progression, heart failure, and death were evaluated. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: Among 1,474 participants with plasma biomarker measurements, 19% had kidney disease progression, 14% had later heart failure, and 21% died during a median follow-up of 4.4 years. For the kidney outcome, the adjusted HRs (AHRs) per doubling in concentration were 2.9 (95% CI, 2.2-3.9) for sTNFR1 and 1.9 (95% CI, 1.5-2.5) for sTNFR2. AKI during the index hospitalization did not modify the association between biomarkers and kidney events. For heart failure, the AHRs per doubling in concentration were 1.9 (95% CI, 1.4-2.5) for sTNFR1 and 1.5 (95% CI, 1.2-2.0) for sTNFR2. For mortality, the AHRs were 3.3 (95% CI, 2.5-4.3) for sTNFR1 and 2.5 (95% CI, 2.0-3.1) for sTNFR2. The findings in ARID were qualitatively similar in terms of the magnitude of association between biomarkers and outcomes. LIMITATIONS: Different biomarker platforms and AKI definitions; limited generalizability to other ethnic groups. CONCLUSIONS: Plasma sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 measured 3 months after hospital discharge were independently associated with clinical events regardless of AKI status during the index admission. sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 may assist with the risk stratification of patients during follow-up.

Biomarkers of eGFR decline after cardiac surgery in children: findings from the ASSESS-AKI study.

BACKGROUND: Children who require surgery for congenital heart disease have increased risk for long-term chronic kidney disease (CKD). Clinical factors as well as urine biomarkers of tubular health and injury may help improve the prognostication of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline. METHODS: We enrolled children from 1 month to 18 years old undergoing cardiac surgery in the ASSESS-AKI cohort. We used mixed-effect models to assess the association between urinary biomarkers (log2-transformed uromodulin, NGAL, KIM-1, IL-18, L-FABP) measured 3 months after cardiac surgery and cyanotic heart disease with the rate of eGFR decline at annual in-person visits over 4 years. RESULTS: Of the 117 children enrolled, 30 (24%) had cyanotic heart disease. During 48 months of follow-up, the median eGFR in the subgroup of children with cyanotic heart disease was lower at all study visits as compared with children with acyanotic heart disease (p = 0.01). In the overall cohort, lower levels of both urine uromodulin and IL-18 after discharge were associated with eGFR decline. After adjustment for age, RACHS-1 surgical complexity score, proteinuria, and eGFR at the 3-month study visit, lower concentrations of urine uromodulin and IL-18 were associated with a monthly decline in eGFR (uromodulin ß = 0.04 (95% CI: 0.00-0.09; p = 0.07) IL-18 ß = 0.07 (95% CI: 0.01-0.13; p = 0.04), ml/min/1.73 m2 per month). CONCLUSIONS: At 3 months after cardiac surgery, children with lower urine uromodulin and IL-18 concentrations experienced a significantly faster decline in eGFR. Children with cyanotic heart disease had a lower median eGFR at all time points but did not experience faster eGFR decline. A higher-resolution version of the Graphical abstract is available as Supplementary information.

Angiopoietins as Prognostic Markers for Future Kidney Disease and Heart Failure Events after Acute Kidney Injury.

BACKGROUND: The mechanisms underlying long-term sequelae after AKI remain unclear. Vessel instability, an early response to endothelial injury, may reflect a shared mechanism and early trigger for CKD and heart failure. METHODS: To investigate whether plasma angiopoietins, markers of vessel homeostasis, are associated with CKD progression and heart failure admissions after hospitalization in patients with and without AKI, we conducted a prospective cohort study to analyze the balance between angiopoietin-1 (Angpt-1), which maintains vessel stability, and angiopoietin-2 (Angpt-2), which increases vessel destabilization. Three months after discharge, we evaluated the associations between angiopoietins and development of the primary outcomes of CKD progression and heart failure and the secondary outcome of all-cause mortality 3 months after discharge or later. RESULTS: Median age for the 1503 participants was 65.8 years; 746 (50%) had AKI. Compared with the lowest quartile, the highest quartile of the Angpt-1:Angpt-2 ratio was associated with 72% lower risk of CKD progression (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.28; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.15 to 0.51), 94% lower risk of heart failure (aHR, 0.06; 95% CI, 0.02 to 0.15), and 82% lower risk of mortality (aHR, 0.18; 95% CI, 0.09 to 0.35) for those with AKI. Among those without AKI, the highest quartile of Angpt-1:Angpt-2 ratio was associated with 71% lower risk of heart failure (aHR, 0.29; 95% CI, 0.12 to 0.69) and 68% less mortality (aHR, 0.32; 95% CI, 0.15 to 0.68). There were no associations with CKD progression. CONCLUSIONS: A higher Angpt-1:Angpt-2 ratio was strongly associated with less CKD progression, heart failure, and mortality in the setting of AKI.

A prospective cohort study of acute kidney injury and kidney outcomes, cardiovascular events, and death.

Acute kidney injury (AKI) has been reported to be associated with excess risks of death, kidney disease progression and cardiovascular events although previous studies have important limitations. To further examine this, we prospectively studied adults from four clinical centers surviving three months and more after hospitalization with or without AKI who were matched on center, pre-admission CKD status, and an integrated priority score based on age, prior cardiovascular disease or diabetes mellitus, preadmission estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and treatment in the intensive care unit during the index hospitalization between December 2009-February 2015, with follow-up through November 2018. All participants had assessments of kidney function before (eGFR) and at three months and annually (eGFR and proteinuria) after the index hospitalization. Associations of AKI with outcomes were examined after accounting for pre-admission and three-month post-discharge factors. Among 769 AKI (73% Stage 1, 14% Stage 2, 13% Stage 3) and 769 matched non-AKI adults, AKI was associated with higher adjusted rates of incident CKD (adjusted hazard ratio 3.98, 95% confidence interval 2.51-6.31), CKD progression (2.37,1.28-4.39), heart failure events (1.68, 1.22-2.31) and all-cause death (1.78, 1.24-2.56). AKI was not associated with major atherosclerotic cardiovascular events in multivariable analysis (0.95, 0.70-1.28). After accounting for degree of kidney function recovery and proteinuria at three months after discharge, the associations of AKI with heart failure (1.13, 0.80-1.61) and death (1.29, 0.84-1.98) were attenuated and no longer significant. Thus, assessing kidney function recovery and proteinuria status three months after AKI provides important prognostic information for long-term clinical outcomes.

Kidney Biomarkers of Injury and Repair as Predictors of Contrast-Associated AKI: A Substudy of the PRESERVE Trial.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: The PRESERVE trial used a 2 × 2 factorial design to compare intravenous saline solution with intravenous sodium bicarbonate solution and oral N-acetylcysteine with placebo for the prevention of 90-day major adverse kidney events and death (MAKE-D) and contrast-associated acute kidney injury (CA-AKI) among patients with chronic kidney disease undergoing angiography. In this ancillary study, we evaluated the predictive capacities of preangiography injury and repair proteins in urine and plasma for MAKE-D, CA-AKI, and their impact on trial design. STUDY DESIGN: Longitudinal analysis. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: A subset of participants from the PRESERVE trial. EXPOSURES: Injury (KIM-1, NGAL, and IL-18) and repair (MCP-1, UMOD, and YKL-40) proteins in urine and plasma 1 to 2 hours preangiography. OUTCOMES: MAKE-D and CA-AKI. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: We analyzed the associations of preangiography biomarkers with MAKE-D and with CA-AKI. We evaluated whether the biomarker levels could enrich the MAKE-D event rate and improve future clinical trial efficiency through an online biomarker prognostic enrichment tool available at prognosticenrichment.com. RESULTS: We measured plasma biomarkers in 916 participants and urine biomarkers in 797 participants. After adjusting for urinary albumin-creatinine ratio and baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate, preangiography levels of 4 plasma (KIM-1, NGAL, UMOD, and YKL-40) and 3 urine (NGAL, IL-18, and YKL-40) biomarkers were associated with MAKE-D. Only plasma KIM-1 level was significantly associated with CA-AKI after adjustment. Biomarker levels provided modest discriminatory capacity for MAKE-D. Screening patients using the 50th percentile of preangiography plasma KIM-1 or YKL-40 levels would have reduced the required sample size by 30% (∼2,000 participants). LIMITATIONS: Evaluation of prognostic enrichment does not account for changing trial costs, time needed to screen patients, or loss to follow-up. Most participants were male, limiting the generalizability of our findings. CONCLUSIONS: Preangiography levels of injury and repair biomarkers modestly predict the development of MAKE-D and can be used to improve the efficiency of future CA-AKI trials.

Impact of AKI on Urinary Protein Excretion: Analysis of Two Prospective Cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Prior studies of adverse renal consequences of AKI have almost exclusively focused on eGFR changes. Less is known about potential effects of AKI on proteinuria, although proteinuria is perhaps the strongest risk factor for future loss of renal function. METHODS: We studied enrollees from the Assessment, Serial Evaluation, and Subsequent Sequelae of AKI (ASSESS-AKI) study and the subset of the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) study enrollees recruited from Kaiser Permanente Northern California. Both prospective cohort studies included annual ascertainment of urine protein-to-creatinine ratio, eGFR, BP, and medication use. For hospitalized participants, we used inpatient serum creatinine measurements obtained as part of clinical care to define an episode of AKI (i.e., peak/nadir inpatient serum creatinine ≥1.5). We performed mixed effects regression to examine change in log-transformed urine protein-to-creatinine ratio after AKI, controlling for time-updated covariates. RESULTS: At cohort entry, median eGFR was 62.9 ml/min per 1.73 m2 (interquartile range [IQR], 46.9-84.6) among 2048 eligible participants, and median urine protein-to-creatinine ratio was 0.12 g/g (IQR, 0.07-0.25). After enrollment, 324 participants experienced at least one episode of hospitalized AKI during 9271 person-years of follow-up; 50.3% of first AKI episodes were Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes stage 1 in severity, 23.8% were stage 2, and 25.9% were stage 3. In multivariable analysis, an episode of hospitalized AKI was independently associated with a 9% increase in the urine protein-to-creatinine ratio. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis of data from two prospective cohort studies found that hospitalization for an AKI episode was independently associated with subsequent worsening of proteinuria.

Prediction of Arteriovenous Fistula Clinical Maturation from Postoperative Ultrasound Measurements: Findings from the Hemodialysis Fistula Maturation Study.

BACKGROUND: The utility of early postoperative ultrasound measurements in predicting arteriovenous fistula (AVF) clinical maturation is uncertain. METHODS: We investigated the relationships of ultrasound parameters with AVF clinical maturation in newly created AVF, measured at 1 day and 2 and 6 weeks, in 602 participants of a multicenter, observational cohort study. A backward elimination algorithm identified ultrasound measurements that independently predicted unassisted and overall AVF maturation. Candidate variables included AVF blood flow, diameter, and depth, upper arm arterial diameter, presence of stenosis, presence of accessory veins, seven case-mix factors (age, sex, black race, AVF location, diabetes, dialysis status, and body mass index), and clinical center. We evaluated the accuracy of the resulting models for clinical prediction. RESULTS: At each ultrasound measurement time, AVF blood flow, diameter, and depth each predicted in a statistically significant manner both unassisted and overall clinical maturation. Moreover, neither the remaining ultrasound parameters nor case-mix factors were associated with clinical AVF maturation after accounting for blood flow, diameter, and depth, although maturation probabilities differed among clinical centers before and after accounting for these parameters. The crossvalidated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for models constructed using these three ultrasound parameters was 0.69, 0.74, and 0.79 at 1 day and 2 and 6 weeks, respectively, for unassisted AVF clinical maturation and 0.69, 0.71, and 0.76, respectively, for overall AVF maturation. CONCLUSIONS: AVF blood flow, diameter, and depth moderately predicted unassisted and overall AVF clinical maturation. The other factors considered did not further improve AVF maturation prediction.

Acute Kidney Injury in Sugarcane Workers at Risk for Mesoamerican Nephropathy.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Mesoamerican nephropathy (MeN), a form of chronic kidney disease (CKD) of unknown cause in Central America, affects young individuals working in physically strenuous occupations. Repeated episodes of work-related kidney injury may lead to CKD in this setting. We aimed to better understand the burden and natural history of acute kidney injury (AKI) in workers at risk for MeN. STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional study of active sugarcane workers, followed by prospective follow-up of individuals with AKI. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 326 sugarcane workers with normal preharvest serum creatinine (Scr) values and no history of CKD in an MeN hotspot in Nicaragua near the end of the harvest, and prospective follow-up of workers with AKI. PREDICTOR: AKI during the harvest, as defined by Scr level increase ≥ 0.3mg/dL over baseline to a level ≥ 1.3mg/dL. OUTCOMES: Kidney function trajectory and development of CKD over 12 months. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Linear regression models were used to analyze the association between job category and kidney function. For workers with AKI, the effect of time on Scr level was evaluated using linear mixed effects. RESULTS: 34 of 326 participants were found to have AKI, with a median late-harvest Scr level of 1.64mg/dL in the AKI group. Workers without AKI had a median Scr level of 0.88mg/dL. AKI was more common among cane cutters compared with other field workers. Participants with AKI had variable degrees of kidney function recovery, with median 6- and 12-month Scr values of 1.25 and 1.27mg/dL, respectively (P < 0.001 for each follow-up value compared to late-harvest Scr). When we compared workers' kidney function before the AKI episode to their kidney function at last follow-up, 10 participants with AKI developed de novo estimated glomerular filtration rate < 60mL/min/1.73m2 and 11 had a >30% decrease in estimated glomerular filtration rate. LIMITATIONS: Follow-up limited to 1 year and some loss to follow-up in the prospective component of the study. Broad definition of AKI that includes both acute and subacute kidney injury. CONCLUSIONS: In a group of sugarcane workers with normal preharvest kidney function, newly decreased kidney function developing during the harvest season was common. Of those with kidney injury, nearly half had established CKD 12 months later.

Relationships Between Clinical Processes and Arteriovenous Fistula Cannulation and Maturation: A Multicenter Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Half of surgically created arteriovenous fistulas (AVFs) require additional intervention to effectively support hemodialysis. Postoperative care and complications may affect clinical maturation. STUDY DESIGN: Hemodialysis Fistula Maturation (HFM) Study, a 7-center prospective cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 491 patients with single-stage AVFs who had neither thrombosis nor AVF intervention before a 6-week postoperative ultrasonographic examination and who required maintenance hemodialysis. PREDICTORS: Postoperative care processes and complications. OUTCOMES: Attempted cannulation, successful cannulation, and unassisted and overall clinical maturation as defined by the HFM Study criteria. RESULTS: AVF cannulation was attempted in 443 of 491 (90.2%) participants and was eventually successful in 430 of these 443 (97.1%) participants. 263 of these 430 (61.2%) reached unassisted and 118 (27.4%) reached assisted AVF maturation (overall maturation, 381/430 [88.6%]). Attempted cannulation was less likely in patients of surgeons with policies for routine 2-week versus later-than-2-week first postoperative visits (OR, 0.21; 95% CI, 0.06-0.70), routine second postoperative follow-up visits (OR, 0.39; 95% CI, 0.15-0.97), and a routine clinical postoperative ultrasound (OR, 0.28; 95% CI, 0.14-0.55). Attempted cannulation was also less likely among patients undergoing procedures to assist maturation (OR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.27-0.98). Unassisted maturation was more likely for patients treated in facilities with access coordinators (OR, 1.91; 95% CI, 1.17-3.12), but less likely after precannulation nonstudy ultrasounds (OR per ultrasound, 0.42 [95% CI, 0.26-0.68]) and initial unsuccessful cannulation attempts (OR per each additional attempt, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.83-0.98]). Overall maturation was less likely with infiltration before successful cannulation (OR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.22-0.89). Among participants receiving maintenance hemodialysis before AVF surgery, unassisted and overall maturation were less likely with longer intervals from surgery to initial cannulation (ORs for each additional month of 0.81 [95% CI, 0.76-0.88] and 0.93 [95% CI, 0.89-0.98], respectively) and from initial to successful cannulation (ORs for each additional week of 0.87 [95% CI, 0.81-0.94] and 0.88 [95% CI, 0.83-0.94], respectively). LIMITATIONS: Surgeons' management policies were assessed only by questionnaire at study onset. Most participants received upper-arm AVFs, planned 2-stage AVFs were excluded, and maturation time windows were imposed. Some care processes may have been missed and the observational design limits causal attribution. CONCLUSIONS: Multiple processes of care and complications are associated with AVF maturation outcomes.

Association between Preoperative Vascular Function and Postoperative Arteriovenous Fistula Development.

Arteriovenous fistula (AVF) maturation failure is the primary cause of dialysis vascular access dysfunction. To evaluate whether preoperative vascular functional properties predict postoperative AVF measurements, patients enrolled in the Hemodialysis Fistula Maturation Study underwent up to five preoperative vascular function tests (VFTs): flow-mediated dilation (FMD), nitroglycerin-mediated dilation (NMD), carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity, carotid-radial pulse wave velocity, and venous occlusion plethysmography. We used mixed effects multiple regression analyses to relate each preoperative VFT to ultrasound measurements of AVF blood flow rate and venous diameter at 1 day, 2 weeks, and 6 weeks after AVF placement. After controlling for AVF location, preoperative ultrasound measurements, and demographic factors (age, sex, race, and dialysis status), greater NMD associated with greater 6-week AVF blood flow rate and AVF diameter (per absolute 10% difference in NMD: change in blood flow rate =14.0%; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 3.7% to 25.3%; P<0.01; change in diameter =0.45 mm; 95% CI, 0.25 to 0.65 mm; P<0.001). Greater FMD also associated with greater increases in 6-week AVF blood flow rate and AVF diameter (per absolute 10% difference in FMD: change in blood flow rate =11.6%; 95% CI, 0.6% to 23.9%; P=0.04; change in diameter =0.31 mm; 95% CI, 0.05 to 0.57 mm; P=0.02). None of the remaining VFT parameters exhibited consistent statistically significant relationships with both postoperative AVF blood flow rate and diameter. In conclusion, preoperative NMD and FMD positively associated with changes in 6-week AVF blood flow rate and diameter, suggesting that native functional arterial properties affect AVF development.

Arteriovenous Fistula Development in the First 6 Weeks after Creation.

PURPOSE: To assess the anatomic development of native arteriovenous fistula (AVF) during the first 6 weeks after creation by using ultrasonographic (US) measurements in a multicenter hemodialysis fistula maturation study. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Each institutional review board approved the prospective study protocol, and written informed consent was obtained. Six hundred and two participants (180 women and 422 men, 459 with upper-arm AVF and 143 with forearm AVF) from seven clinical centers underwent preoperative artery and vein US mapping. AVF draining vein diameter and blood flow rate were assessed postoperatively after 1 day, 2 weeks, and 6 weeks. Relationships among US measurements were summarized after using multiple imputation for missing measurements. RESULTS: In 55% of forearm AVFs (68 of 124) and 83% of upper-arm AVFs (341 of 411) in surviving patients without thrombosis or AVF intervention prior to 6 weeks, at least 50% of their 6-week blood flow rate measurement was achieved at 1 day. Among surviving patients without thrombosis or AVF intervention prior to week 2, 70% with upper-arm AVFs (302 of 433) and 77% with forearm AVFs (99 of 128) maintained at least 85% of their week 2 flow rate at week 6. Mean AVF diameters of at least 0.40 cm were seen in 85% (389 of 459), 91% (419 of 459), and 87% (401 of 459) of upper-arm AVFs and in 40% (58 of 143), 73% (104 of 143), and 77% (110 of 143) of forearm AVFs at 1 day, 2 weeks, and 6 weeks, respectively. One-day and 2-week AVF flow rates and diameters were used to predict 6-week levels, with 2-week prediction of 6-week measures more accurate than those of 1 day (flow rates, R(2) = 0.47 and 0.61, respectively; diameters, R(2) = 0.49 and 0.82, respectively). CONCLUSION: AVF blood flow rate at 1 day is usually more than 50% of the 6-week blood flow rate. Two-week measurements are more predictive of 6-week diameter and blood flow than those of 1 day. US measurements at 2 weeks may be of value in the early identification of fistulas that are unlikely to develop optimally.

Biomarkers of Kidney Injury Among Nicaraguan Sugarcane Workers.

BACKGROUND: In Central America, an epidemic of chronic kidney disease of unknown cause disproportionately affects young male agricultural workers. STUDY DESIGN: Longitudinal cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 284 sugarcane workers in 7 jobs were recruited from one company in northwestern Nicaragua. Blood and urine samples were collected before and near the end of the 6-month harvest season. PREDICTORS: Job category (cane cutter, seeder, seed cutter, agrichemical applicator, irrigator, driver, and factory worker); self-reported water and electrolyte solution intake. OUTCOMES & MEASUREMENTS: Changes in levels of urinary kidney injury biomarkers normalized to urine creatinine level, including neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL), interleukin 18 (IL-18), N-acetyl-ß-d-glucosaminidase (NAG), and albumin; serum creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). RESULTS: Mean eGFR was 113 mL/min/1.73 m(2) and <5% of workers had albuminuria. Field workers had increases in NGAL and IL-18 levels that were 1.49 (95% CI, 1.06 to 2.09) and 1.61 (95% CI, 1.12 to 2.31) times as high, respectively, as in non-field workers. Cane cutters and irrigators had the greatest increases in NGAL levels during the harvest, whereas cane cutters and seeders had the greatest increases in IL-18 levels. Electrolyte solution consumption was associated with lower mean NGAL and NAG levels among cane cutters and lower mean IL-18 and NAG levels among seed cutters; however, there was no overall effect of hydration among all workers. On average, workers with the largest increases in NGAL and NAG levels during the harvest had declines in eGFRs of 4.6 (95% CI, 1.0 to 8.2) and 3.1 (95% CI, -0.6 to 6.7) mL/min/1.73 m(2), respectively. LIMITATIONS: Surrogate exposure measure, loss to follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Results are consistent with the hypothesis that occupational heat stress and volume depletion may be associated with the development of kidney disease, and future studies should directly measure these occupational factors. The presence of urine tubular injury markers supports a tubulointerstitial disease that could occur with repeated tubular injury.

Characterization of Mesoamerican Nephropathy in a Kidney Failure Hotspot in Nicaragua.

BACKGROUND: Mesoamerican nephropathy (MeN) is a kidney disease of unknown cause that mainly affects working-age men in Central America. Despite being a major cause of morbidity and mortality in this region, its clinical characteristics have not been well defined. STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional family-based study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 266 members of 24 families with high chronic kidney disease (CKD) burdens in a MeN hotspot in Northwestern Nicaragua. We compared clinical and biochemical characteristics of affected individuals first with their unaffected relatives and then with NHANES (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey) participants with CKD in order to reveal identifying features of MeN. PREDICTOR: CKD defined as serum creatinine level ≥ 1.5mg/dL in men and ≥1.4mg/dL in women. OUTCOMES: Clinical and biochemical parameters, including serum sodium, potassium, bicarbonate, calcium, magnesium, phosphorus, and uric acid. RESULTS: Hyperuricemia, in many cases severe, was common among patients with MeN. Uric acid levels in patients with MeN were higher than those in NHANES participants (mean, 9.6 vs 7.4mg/dL for men in each group) despite more frequent use of uric acid-lowering medications in Nicaraguan individuals (71.7% vs 11.2%). In multivariable linear mixed-effects regression analysis, uric acid levels were 2.0mg/dL (95% CI, 1.0-3.0; P<0.001) higher in patients with MeN compared with their NHANES counterparts after adjusting for age, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and uric acid-lowering therapies. In contrast to prior reports, hyponatremia and hypokalemia were not common. LIMITATIONS: CKD defined by single serum creatinine measurement; population likely not representative of full MeN phenotype spectrum across Central America; major differences between MeN and NHANES groups in important characteristics such as age, ancestry, and recruitment method. CONCLUSIONS: Hyperuricemia out of proportion to the degree of decreased kidney function was common among Nicaraguan patients with MeN. Our results suggest that rather than being solely a consequence of CKD, hyperuricemia may play a role in MeN pathogenesis, a hypothesis that deserves further study.

Urine biomarkers of kidney injury among adolescents in Nicaragua, a region affected by an epidemic of chronic kidney disease of unknown aetiology.

BACKGROUND: An epidemic of chronic kidney disease (CKD) of non-traditional aetiology has been recently recognized by health authorities as a public health priority in Central America. Previous studies have identified strenuous manual work, agricultural activities and residence at low altitude as potential risk factors; however, the aetiology remains unknown. Because individuals are frequently diagnosed with CKD in early adulthood, we measured biomarkers of kidney injury among adolescents in different regions of Nicaragua to assess whether kidney damage might be initiated during childhood. METHODS: Participants include 200 adolescents aged 12-18 years with no prior work history from four different schools in Nicaragua. The location of the school served as a proxy for environmental exposures and geographic locations were selected to represent a range of factors that have been associated with CKD in adults (e.g. altitude, primary industry and CKD mortality rates). Questionnaires, urine dipsticks and kidney injury biomarkers [interleukin-18, N-acetyl-d-glucosaminidase (NAG), neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) and albumin-creatinine ratio] were assessed. Biomarker concentrations were compared by school using linear regression models. RESULTS: Protein (3.5%) and glucose (1%) in urine measured by dipstick were rare and did not differ by school. Urine biomarkers of tubular kidney damage, particularly NGAL and NAG, showed higher concentrations in those schools and regions within Nicaragua that were defined a priori as having increased CKD risk. Painful urination was a frequent self-reported symptom. CONCLUSIONS: Although interpretation of these urine biomarkers is limited because of the lack of population reference values, results suggest the possibility of early kidney damage prior to occupational exposures in these adolescents.

Predialysis nephrology care and dialysis-related health outcomes among older adults initiating dialysis.

BACKGROUND: Predialysis nephrology care is associated with lower mortality and rates of hospitalization following chronic dialysis initiation. Whether more frequent predialysis nephrology care is associated with other favorable outcomes for older adults is not known. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of patients ≥66 years who initiated chronic dialysis in 2000-2001 and were eligible for VA and/or Medicare-covered services. Nephrology visits in VA and/or Medicare during the 12-month predialysis period were identified and classified by low intensity (<3 visits), moderate intensity (3-6 visits), and high intensity (>6 visits). Outcome measures included very low estimated glomerular filtration rate, severe anemia, use of peritoneal dialysis, and receipt of permanent vascular access at dialysis initiation and death and kidney transplantation within two years of initiation. Generalized linear models with propensity score weighting were used to examine the association between nephrology care and outcomes. RESULTS: Among 58,014 patients, 46 % had none, 22 % had low, 13 % had moderate, and 19 % had high intensity predialysis nephrology care. Patients with a greater intensity of predialysis nephrology care had more favorable outcomes (all p < 0.001). In adjusted models, patients with high intensity predialysis nephrology care were less likely to have severe anemia (RR = 0.70, 99 % CI: 0.65-0.74) and more likely to have permanent vascular access (RR = 3.60, 99 % CI: 3.42-3.79) at dialysis initiation, and less likely to die within two years of dialysis initiation (RR = 0.80, 99 % CI: 0.77-0.82). CONCLUSION: In a large cohort of older adults treated with chronic dialysis, greater intensity of predialysis nephrology care was associated with more favorable outcomes.

Predicting Early Death Among Elderly Dialysis Patients: Development and Validation of a Risk Score to Assist Shared Decision Making for Dialysis Initiation.

BACKGROUND: A shared decision-making tool could help elderly patients with advanced chronic kidney disease decide about initiating dialysis therapy. Because mortality may be high in the first few months after initiating dialysis therapy, incorporating early mortality predictors in such a tool would be important for an informed decision. Our objective is to derive and validate a predictive risk score for early mortality after initiating dialysis therapy. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective observational cohort, with development and validation cohorts. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: US Renal Data System and claims data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services for 69,441 (aged ≥67 years) patients with end-stage renal disease with a previous 2-year Medicare history who initiated dialysis therapy from January 1, 2009, to December 31, 2010. CANDIDATE PREDICTORS: Demographics, predialysis care, laboratory data, functional limitations, and medical history. OUTCOMES: All-cause mortality in the first 3 and 6 months. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Predicted mortality by logistic regression. RESULTS: The simple risk score (total score, 0-9) included age (0-3 points), low albumin level, assistance with daily living, nursing home residence, cancer, heart failure, and hospitalization (1 point each), and showed area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC)=0.69 in the validation sample. A comprehensive risk score with additional predictors was also developed (with AUROC=0.72, high concordance between predicted vs observed risk). Mortality probabilities were estimated from these models, with the median score of 3 indicating 12% risk in 3 months and 20% in 6 months, and the highest scores (≥8) indicating 39% risk in 3 months and 55% in 6 months. LIMITATIONS: Patients who did not choose dialysis therapy and did not have a 2-year Medicare history were excluded. CONCLUSIONS: Routinely available information can be used by patients with chronic kidney disease, families, and their nephrologists to estimate the risk of early mortality after dialysis therapy initiation, which may facilitate informed decision making regarding treatment options.

Mineral Metabolites, Angiotensin II Inhibition and Outcomes in Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease.

BACKGROUND: Evidence suggests that the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS) interacts with the vitamin D-fibroblast growth factor 23-Klotho axis. We investigated whether circulating mineral metabolism markers modify outcomes in response to RAAS inhibition in subjects with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD). METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we analyzed the association of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI) and angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) use with all-cause mortality and dialysis initiation among 1,753 subjects (1,099 CKD, estimated glomerular filtration rate 18 ± 6 ml/min/1.73 m(2) and 654 end-stage renal disease [ESRD]) from the Homocysteine in Kidney and End Stage Renal Disease (HOST) study. A propensity score analysis accounted for indication bias and Cox regression models adjusted for mineral metabolism markers. RESULTS: Mean follow-up was 3.2 years; 714 (41%) subjects died and 615 (56%) initiated dialysis. In adjusted analyses, all subjects treated with ACEI/ARB had a significantly lower hazard of death (hazards ratio (HR) 0.81, 95% CI 0.70-0.95, p = 0.007). Those with CKD not on dialysis and treated with ACEI/ARB trended toward a lower hazard of dialysis initiation (HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.73-1.01, p = 0.06). The association with mortality did not differ by level of mineral metabolism marker (p for interaction >0.16); however, the relationship with dialysis initiation differed according to the median serum phosphorus level (p for interaction <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: RAAS inhibition was associated with decreased all-cause mortality independent of disordered mineral metabolism among mostly male HOST subjects with advanced CKD and ESRD. However, among those with CKD not requiring dialysis, the renoprotection associated with RAAS inhibition was attenuated by higher serum phosphorus levels. Further studies are needed to confirm this association.

Erythropoiesis-stimulating agent use among non-dialysis-dependent CKD patients before and after the trial to Reduce Cardiovascular Events With Aranesp Therapy (TREAT) using a large US health plan database.

BACKGROUND: In a landmark study, TREAT (Trial to Reduce Cardiovascular Events With Aranesp Therapy) examined the use of erythropoiesis-stimulating agent (ESA) therapy to treat anemia among patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and found no benefit compared to placebo. STUDY DESIGN: A retrospective observational design was used to determine the impact of TREAT on clinical practice. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: A large US health plan database with more than 1.2 million claims for patients with non-dialysis-dependent CKD stages 3 and 4. FACTOR: ESA prescribing 2 years before and after publication of TREAT. OUTCOMES: Rate of ESA prescribing for ESA-naive and -prevalent cohorts. MEASUREMENTS: (1) Monthly ESA prescribing in the 2 years before and after publication of TREAT (ordinary least squares regression), (2) adjusted likelihood of prescribing ESA after TREAT (clustered logistic regression), and (3) probability of receiving ESA therapy based on anemia status (χ(2) test). RESULTS: For patients with CKD stage 3, the proportion prescribed ESA therapy declined from 17% pre-TREAT to 11% post-TREAT (a 38% decline), and for those with CKD stage 4, from 34% to 27% (a 22% decline). Prescribing of ESA therapy was declining even before TREAT, but the decline accelerated in the post-TREAT period (stage 3: change of slope, -0.08 [P<0.001]; stage 4: change of slope, -0.16 [P<0.001]). ESA prescribing declined after TREAT regardless of anemia status; among patients with hemoglobin levels <10g/dL, only 25% of patients with CKD stage 3 and 33% of patients with stage 4 were prescribed ESAs 2 years after TREAT, a notable 50% decline. After adjusting for all covariates, the probability of prescribing ESAs was 35% lower during the 2-year period after versus before publication of TREAT (OR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.63-0.67). LIMITATIONS: The cumulative effect of adverse safety concerns in the period before TREAT also influenced physician prescribing of ESA therapy and could not be separated from the influence of TREAT. CONCLUSIONS: TREAT appears to be a watershed study that was followed by a marked decline in ESA prescribing for patients with CKD.