COVID-19 spread control policies based early dynamics forecasting using deep learning algorithm.

Many severe epidemics and pandemics have hit human civilizations throughout history. The recent Sever Actuate Respiratory disease SARS-CoV-2 known as COVID-19 became a global disease and is still growing around the globe. It has severely affected the world's economy and ways of life. It necessitates predicting the spread in advance and considering various control policies to avoid the country's complete closure. In this paper, we propose deep learning-based stacked Bi-directional long short-term memory (Stacked Bi-LSTM) network that forecasts COVID-19 more accurately for the country of South Korea. The paper's main objectives are to present a lightweight, accurate, and optimized model to predict the spread considering restriction policies such as school closure, workspace closing, and the canceling of public events. Based on the fourteen parameters (including control policies), we predict and forecast the future value of the number of positive, dead, recovered, and quarantined cases. In this paper, we use the dataset of South Korea comprised of several control policies implemented for minimizing the spread of COVID-19. We compare the performance of the stacked Bi-LSTM with the traditional time-series models and LSTM model using the performance metrics mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and root mean square error (RMSE). Moreover, we study the impact of control policies on forecasting accuracy. We further study the impact of changing the Bi-LSTM default activation functions Tanh with ReLU on forecasting accuracy. The research provides insight to policymakers to optimize the pooling of resources more optimally on the correct date and time prior to the event and to control the spread by employing various strategies in the meantime.

Mobile sensors based platform of Human Physical Activities Recognition for COVID-19 spread minimization.

The development of smartphones technologies has determined the abundant and prevalent computation. An activity recognition system using mobile sensors enables continuous monitoring of human behavior and assisted living. This paper proposes the mobile sensors-based Epidemic Watch System (EWS) leveraging the AI models to recognize a new set of activities for effective social distance monitoring, probability of infection estimation, and COVID-19 spread prevention. The research focuses on user activities recognition and behavior concerning risks and effectiveness in the COVID-19 pandemic. The proposed EWS consists of a smartphone application for COVID-19 related activities sensors data collection, features extraction, classifying the activities, and providing alerts for spread presentation. We collect the novel dataset of COVID-19 associated activities such as hand washing, hand sanitizing, nose-eyes touching, and handshaking using the proposed EWS smartphone application. We evaluate several classifiers such as random forests, decision trees, support vector machine, and Long Short-Term Memory for the collected dataset and attain the highest overall classification accuracy of 97.33%. We provide the Contact Tracing of the COVID-19 infected person using GPS sensor data. The EWS activities monitoring, identification, and classification system examine the infection risk of another person from COVID-19 infected person. It determines some everyday activities between COVID-19 infected person and normal person, such as sitting together, standing together, or walking together to minimize the spread of pandemic diseases.