Fusing an agent-based model of mosquito population dynamics with a statistical reconstruction of spatio-temporal abundance patterns.

The mosquito Aedes aegypti is the vector of a number of medically-important viruses, including dengue virus, yellow fever virus, chikungunya virus, and Zika virus, and as such vector control is a key approach to managing the diseases they cause. Understanding the impact of vector control on these diseases is aided by first understanding its impact on Ae. aegypti population dynamics. A number of detail-rich models have been developed to couple the dynamics of the immature and adult stages of Ae. aegypti. The numerous assumptions of these models enable them to realistically characterize impacts of mosquito control, but they also constrain the ability of such models to reproduce empirical patterns that do not conform to the models' behavior. In contrast, statistical models afford sufficient flexibility to extract nuanced signals from noisy data, yet they have limited ability to make predictions about impacts of mosquito control on disease caused by pathogens that the mosquitoes transmit without extensive data on mosquitoes and disease. Here, we demonstrate how the differing strengths of mechanistic realism and statistical flexibility can be fused into a single model. Our analysis utilizes data from 176,352 household-level Ae. aegypti aspirator collections conducted during 1999-2011 in Iquitos, Peru. The key step in our approach is to calibrate a single parameter of the model to spatio-temporal abundance patterns predicted by a generalized additive model (GAM). In effect, this calibrated parameter absorbs residual variation in the abundance time-series not captured by other features of the mechanistic model. We then used this calibrated parameter and the literature-derived parameters in the agent-based model to explore Ae. aegypti population dynamics and the impact of insecticide spraying to kill adult mosquitoes. The baseline abundance predicted by the agent-based model closely matched that predicted by the GAM. Following spraying, the agent-based model predicted that mosquito abundance rebounds within about two months, commensurate with recent experimental data from Iquitos. Our approach was able to accurately reproduce abundance patterns in Iquitos and produce a realistic response to adulticide spraying, while retaining sufficient flexibility to be applied across a range of settings.

Pupal productivity of larval habitats of Aedes aegypti in Msambweni, Kwale County, Kenya.

Aedes aegypti is an important vector of several arboviruses including dengue and chikungunya viruses. Accurate identification of larval habitats of Ae. aegypti is considered an essential step in targeted control. This study determined Ae. aegypti productivity in selected larval habitats in Msambweni, Kwale County, Kenya. Three sequential larval habitat surveys were conducted. The first survey was habitat census (baseline) through which 83 representative larval habitats were identified and selected. The second and third surveys involved estimating daily productivity of the 83 selected larval habitats for 30 consecutive days during a wet and a dry season, respectively. Of 664 larval habitats examined at baseline, 144 larval habitats (21.7%) were found to be infested with Ae. aegypti larvae. At baseline, majority (71%) of the pupae were collected from two (2/6) larval habitat types, tires and pots. Multivariate analysis identified habitat type and the habitat being movable as the predictors for pupal abundance. During the 30-day daily pupal production surveys, only a few of the habitats harbored pupae persistently. Pupae were found in 28% and 12% of the larval habitats during the wet and dry seasons, respectively. In the wet season, drums, tires, and pots were identified as the key habitat types accounting for 85% of all pupae sampled. Three habitats (all drums) accounted for 80% of all the pupae collected in the dry season. Predictors for pupal productivity in the wet season were habitat type, place (whether the habitat is located at the back or front of the house), habitat purpose (use of the water in the habitat), and source of water. Although the multivariate model for habitat type did not converge, habitat type and habitat size were the only significant predictors during the dry season. Drums, pots, and tires were sources of more than 85% of Ae. aegypti pupae, reinforcing the "key container concept." Targeting these three types of habitats makes epidemiological sense, especially during the dry season.

Isolation of Heartland Virus from Lone Star Ticks, Georgia, USA, 2019.

Report of a human death and exposure of white-tailed deer to Heartland virus (HRTV) in Georgia, USA, prompted the sampling of questing ticks during 2018-2019 in 26 sites near where seropositive deer were captured and the residence of the human case-patient. We processed 9,294 Amblyomma americanum ticks in pools by virus isolation in Vero E6 cells and reverse transcription PCR. Positive pools underwent whole-genome sequencing. Three pools were positive for HRTV (minimum infection rate 0.46/1,000 ticks) and none for Bourbon virus. Cell cultures confirmed HRTV presence in 2 pools. Genome sequencing, achieved for the 3 HRTV isolates, showed high similarity among samples but marked differences with previously sequenced HRTV isolates. The isolation and genomic characterization of HRTV from A. americanum ticks in Georgia confirm virus presence in the state. Clinicians and public health professionals should be aware of this emerging tickborne pathogen.

Disease-driven reduction in human mobility influences human-mosquito contacts and dengue transmission dynamics.

Heterogeneous exposure to mosquitoes determines an individual's contribution to vector-borne pathogen transmission. Particularly for dengue virus (DENV), there is a major difficulty in quantifying human-vector contacts due to the unknown coupled effect of key heterogeneities. To test the hypothesis that the reduction of human out-of-home mobility due to dengue illness will significantly influence population-level dynamics and the structure of DENV transmission chains, we extended an existing modeling framework to include social structure, disease-driven mobility reductions, and heterogeneous transmissibility from different infectious groups. Compared to a baseline model, naïve to human pre-symptomatic infectiousness and disease-driven mobility changes, a model including both parameters predicted an increase of 37% in the probability of a DENV outbreak occurring; a model including mobility change alone predicted a 15.5% increase compared to the baseline model. At the individual level, models including mobility change led to a reduction of the importance of out-of-home onward transmission (R, the fraction of secondary cases predicted to be generated by an individual) by symptomatic individuals (up to -62%) at the expense of an increase in the relevance of their home (up to +40%). An individual's positive contribution to R could be predicted by a GAM including a non-linear interaction between an individual's biting suitability and the number of mosquitoes in their home (>10 mosquitoes and 0.6 individual attractiveness significantly increased R). We conclude that the complex fabric of social relationships and differential behavioral response to dengue illness cause the fraction of symptomatic DENV infections to concentrate transmission in specific locations, whereas asymptomatic carriers (including individuals in their pre-symptomatic period) move the virus throughout the landscape. Our findings point to the difficulty of focusing vector control interventions reactively on the home of symptomatic individuals, as this approach will fail to contain virus propagation by visitors to their house and asymptomatic carriers.

Changes in the dynamics of dengue incidence in South and Central America are possibly due to cross-population immunity after Zika virus epidemics.

OBJECTIVE: We tested the hypothesis that Zika virus (ZIKV) immunity may protect against dengue virus (DENV) infection, disease severity or human amplification, based on analysis of epidemiological data from our long-term surveillance study (2009-2016) in the city of Salvador, Brazil, that indicated a substantial reduction in the frequency of laboratory-confirmed dengue cases following the Zika outbreak. To assess whether similar patterns were observed across the Americas, we did a broader explorative investigation of historical series (2004 to 2019) of suspected cases of dengue fever, covering 20 DENV-endemic South and Central American countries. METHODS: We used segmented linear regressions of single group interrupted time series (ITS) analysis to evaluate whether the Zika epidemic had a statistical effect on the trends of annual dengue incidence. RESULTS: We observed in our 16-year historical series that in all countries, the incidence of dengue exhibited periodic oscillations over time, with a general trend of statistically significant increase during the pre-Zika period overall and for 11 of the 20 countries. Following the peak of the first population exposure to ZIKV in the Americas, in 2016, the overall rate of reported dengue cases in 2017 and 2018 in the countries under study sharply dropped (P < 0.05) and was the lowest reported since 2005. Individually in each country, a statistically significant reduction in the annual dengue incidence beginning in 2016 or in 2017-2018 occurred in 13 of the 20 studied countries. However, in 2019, reports of suspected dengue cases increased across the Americas. In Brazil, Dominican Republic, Guatemala and Honduras, dengue incidence was >5 times higher in 2019 than in 2017 and 2018, and, in 2019, they had the greater dengue incidence than in all previous years throughout the historical series. CONCLUSIONS: The widespread decline in suspected dengue cases recorded in 2017 and 2018 lends further support to our previous epidemiological hypothesis of ZIKV-induced cross-species immunity to DENV. However, the cross-protection appears to be transient (around 2 years). Long-term, prospective follow-ups of dengue reports are needed to confirm (or refute) these findings, which could have significant public health implications, in particular regarding DENV vaccine development and application.

CONTEXTE: Nous avons émis l'hypothèse que l'immunité contre le virus Zika (ZIKV) pourrait protéger contre l'infection par le virus de la dengue (DENV), la sévérité de la maladie ou l'amplification humaine, sur la base de l'analyse des données épidémiologiques de notre étude de surveillance à long terme (2009-2016) dans la ville de Salvador, au Brésil, qui a indiqué une réduction substantielle de la fréquence des cas de dengue confirmés en laboratoire à la suite de l'épidémie de Zika. MÉTHODES: Pour évaluer si des tendances similaires ont été observées dans les Amériques, nous avons mené une enquête exploratoire plus large sur des séries historiques (2004 à 2019) de cas suspects de dengue, couvrant 20 pays d'Amérique du Sud et d'Amérique centrale endémiques pour DENV. Nous avons utilisé des régressions linéaires segmentées de l'analyse des séries chronologiques interrompues pour un seul groupe pour évaluer si l'épidémie de Zika avait un effet statistique sur les tendances de l'incidence annuelle de la dengue. RÉSULTATS: Nous avons observé dans notre série historique de 16 ans que dans tous les pays, l'incidence de la dengue présentait des oscillations périodiques au fil du temps, avec une tendance générale à une augmentation statistiquement significative pendant la période pré-Zika en général et pour 11 des 20 pays. Après le pic de la première exposition de la population au ZIKV dans les Amériques en 2016, le taux global des cas de dengue rapportés en 2017 et 2018 dans les pays étudiés a fortement diminué (p <0,05) et était le plus bas depuis 2005. Individuellement dans chaque pays, une réduction statistiquement significative de l'incidence annuelle de la dengue à partir de 2016 ou en 2017-2018 s'est produite dans 13 des 20 pays étudiés. Cependant, en 2019, les reports de cas suspects de dengue ont augmenté dans les Amériques. Dans des pays comme le Brésil, la République Dominicaine, le Guatemala et le Honduras, l'incidence de la dengue était >5 fois plus élevée en 2019 qu'en 2017 et 2018, et, en 2019, l'incidence de la dengue était plus élevée qu'au cours de toutes les années précédentes de la série historique. CONCLUSIONS: Le déclin généralisé des cas suspects de dengue enregistrés en 2017 et 2018 vient étayer notre hypothèse épidémiologique précédente de l'immunité inter-espèces induite par le ZIKV contre le DENV. Cependant, la protection croisée semble être transitoire (environ 2 ans). Des suivis prospectifs à long terme des reports sur la dengue sont nécessaires pour confirmer (ou réfuter) ces résultats, qui pourraient avoir des implications importantes pour la santé publique, en particulier en ce qui concerne le développement et l'application d'un vaccin DENV.

Considerations for Improving Reporting and Analysis of Date-Based COVID-19 Surveillance Data by Public Health Agencies.

More than a year after the first domestic COVID-19 cases, the United States does not have national standards for COVID-19 surveillance data analysis and public reporting. This has led to dramatic variations in surveillance practices among public health agencies, which analyze and present newly confirmed cases by a wide variety of dates. The choice of which date to use should be guided by a balance between interpretability and epidemiological relevance. Report date is easily interpretable, generally representative of outbreak trends, and available in surveillance data sets. These features make it a preferred date for public reporting and visualization of surveillance data, although it is not appropriate for epidemiological analyses of outbreak dynamics. Symptom onset date is better suited for such analyses because of its clinical and epidemiological relevance. However, using symptom onset for public reporting of new confirmed cases can cause confusion because reporting lags result in an artificial decline in recent cases. We hope this discussion is a starting point toward a more standardized approach to date-based surveillance. Such standardization could improve public comprehension, policymaking, and outbreak response. (Am J Public Health. 2021;111(12):2127-2132. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306520).

Optimizing the deployment of ultra-low volume and targeted indoor residual spraying for dengue outbreak response.

Recent years have seen rising incidence of dengue and large outbreaks of Zika and chikungunya, which are all caused by viruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. In most settings, the primary intervention against Aedes-transmitted viruses is vector control, such as indoor, ultra-low volume (ULV) spraying. Targeted indoor residual spraying (TIRS) has the potential to more effectively impact Aedes-borne diseases, but its implementation requires careful planning and evaluation. The optimal time to deploy these interventions and their relative epidemiological effects are, however, not well understood. We used an agent-based model of dengue virus transmission calibrated to data from Iquitos, Peru to assess the epidemiological effects of these interventions under differing strategies for deploying them. Specifically, we compared strategies where spray application was initiated when incidence rose above a threshold based on incidence in recent years to strategies where spraying occurred at the same time(s) each year. In the absence of spraying, the model predicted 361,000 infections [inter-quartile range (IQR): 347,000-383,000] in the period 2000-2010. The ULV strategy with the fewest median infections was spraying twice yearly, in March and October, which led to a median of 172,000 infections [IQR: 158,000-183,000], a 52% reduction from baseline. Compared to spraying once yearly in September, the best threshold-based strategy utilizing ULV had fewer median infections (254,000 vs. 261,000), but required more spraying (351 vs. 274 days). For TIRS, the best strategy was threshold-based, which led to the fewest infections of all strategies tested (9,900; [IQR: 8,720-11,400], a 94% reduction), and required fewer days spraying than the equivalent ULV strategy (280). Although spraying twice each year is likely to avert the most infections, our results indicate that a threshold-based strategy can become an alternative to better balance the translation of spraying effort into impact, particularly if used with a residual insecticide.

Transmission of Chikungunya Virus in an Urban Slum, Brazil.

After a chikungunya outbreak in Salvador, Brazil, we performed a cross-sectional, community-based study of 1,776 inhabitants to determine chikungunya virus (CHIKV) seroprevalence, identify factors associated with exposure, and estimate the symptomatic infection rate. From November 2016 through February 2017, we collected sociodemographic and clinical data by interview and tested serum samples for CHIKV IgG. CHIKV seroprevalence was 11.8% (95% CI 9.8%-13.7%), and 15.3% of seropositive persons reported an episode of fever and arthralgia. Infections were independently and positively associated with residences served by unpaved streets, a presumptive clinical diagnosis of chikungunya, and recall of an episode of fever with arthralgia in 2015-2016. Our findings indicate that the chikungunya outbreak in Salvador may not have conferred sufficient herd immunity to preclude epidemics in the near future. The unusually low frequency of symptomatic disease points to a need for further longitudinal studies to better investigate these findings.

Contributions from the silent majority dominate dengue virus transmission.

Despite estimates that, each year, as many as 300 million dengue virus (DENV) infections result in either no perceptible symptoms (asymptomatic) or symptoms that are sufficiently mild to go undetected by surveillance systems (inapparent), it has been assumed that these infections contribute little to onward transmission. However, recent blood-feeding experiments with Aedes aegypti mosquitoes showed that people with asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic DENV infections are capable of infecting mosquitoes. To place those findings into context, we used models of within-host viral dynamics and human demographic projections to (1) quantify the net infectiousness of individuals across the spectrum of DENV infection severity and (2) estimate the fraction of transmission attributable to people with different severities of disease. Our results indicate that net infectiousness of people with asymptomatic infections is 80% (median) that of people with apparent or inapparent symptomatic infections (95% credible interval (CI): 0-146%). Due to their numerical prominence in the infectious reservoir, clinically inapparent infections in total could account for 84% (CI: 82-86%) of DENV transmission. Of infections that ultimately result in any level of symptoms, we estimate that 24% (95% CI: 0-79%) of onward transmission results from mosquitoes biting individuals during the pre-symptomatic phase of their infection. Only 1% (95% CI: 0.8-1.1%) of DENV transmission is attributable to people with clinically detected infections after they have developed symptoms. These findings emphasize the need to (1) reorient current practices for outbreak response to adoption of pre-emptive strategies that account for contributions of undetected infections and (2) apply methodologies that account for undetected infections in surveillance programs, when assessing intervention impact, and when modeling mosquito-borne virus transmission.

An agent-based model of dengue virus transmission shows how uncertainty about breakthrough infections influences vaccination impact projections.

Prophylactic vaccination is a powerful tool for reducing the burden of infectious diseases, due to a combination of direct protection of vaccinees and indirect protection of others via herd immunity. Computational models play an important role in devising strategies for vaccination by making projections of its impacts on public health. Such projections are subject to uncertainty about numerous factors, however. For example, many vaccine efficacy trials focus on measuring protection against disease rather than protection against infection, leaving the extent of breakthrough infections (i.e., disease ameliorated but infection unimpeded) among vaccinees unknown. Our goal in this study was to quantify the extent to which uncertainty about breakthrough infections results in uncertainty about vaccination impact, with a focus on vaccines for dengue. To realistically account for the many forms of heterogeneity in dengue virus (DENV) transmission, which could have implications for the dynamics of indirect protection, we used a stochastic, agent-based model for DENV transmission informed by more than a decade of empirical studies in the city of Iquitos, Peru. Following 20 years of routine vaccination of nine-year-old children at 80% coverage, projections of the proportion of disease episodes averted varied by a factor of 1.76 (95% CI: 1.54-2.06) across the range of uncertainty about breakthrough infections. This was equivalent to the range of vaccination impact projected across a range of uncertainty about vaccine efficacy of 0.268 (95% CI: 0.210-0.329). Until uncertainty about breakthrough infections can be addressed empirically, our results demonstrate the importance of accounting for it in models of vaccination impact.

Concomitant Transmission of Dengue, Chikungunya, and Zika Viruses in Brazil: Clinical and Epidemiological Findings From Surveillance for Acute Febrile Illness.

BACKGROUND: Since their emergence in the Americas, chikungunya (CHIKV) and Zika (ZIKV) viruses co-circulate with dengue virus (DENV), hampering clinical diagnosis. We investigated clinical and epidemiological characteristics of arboviral infections during the introduction and spread of CHIKV and ZIKV through northeastern Brazil. METHODS: Surveillance for arboviral diseases among febrile patients was performed at an emergency health unit of Salvador, Brazil, between September 2014 and July 2016. We interviewed patients to collect data on symptoms, reviewed medical records to obtain the presumptive diagnoses, and performed molecular and serological testing to confirm DENV, CHIKV, ZIKV, or nonspecific flavivirus (FLAV) diagnosis. RESULTS: Of 948 participants, 247 (26.1%) had an acute infection, of which 224 (23.6%) were single infections (DENV, 32 [3.4%]; CHIKV, 159 [16.7%]; ZIKV, 13 [1.4%]; and FLAV, 20 [2.1%]) and 23 (2.4%) coinfections (DENV/CHIKV, 13 [1.4%]; CHIKV/FLAV, 9 [0.9%]; and DENV/ZIKV, 1 [0.1%]). An additional 133 (14.0%) patients had serological evidence for a recent arboviral infection. Patients with ZIKV presented with rash and pruritus (69.2% each) more frequently than those with DENV (37.5% and 31.2%, respectively) and CHIKV (22.9% and 14.7%, respectively) (P < .001 for both comparisons). Conversely, arthralgia was more common in CHIKV (94.9%) and FLAV/CHIKV (100.0%) than in DENV (59.4%) and ZIKV (53.8%) (P < .001). A correct presumptive clinical diagnosis was made for 9%-23% of the confirmed patients. CONCLUSIONS: Arboviral infections are frequent causes of febrile illness. Coinfections are not rare events during periods of intense, concomitant arboviral transmission. Given the challenge to clinically distinguish these infections, there is an urgent need for rapid, point-of-care, multiplex diagnostics.

A localized outbreak of Chikungunya virus in Salvador, Bahia, Brazil.

A localized Chikungunya virus (CHIKV; East/Central/South African genotype) outbreak (50 cases, 70% laboratory-confirmed; attack rate: 5.3 confirmed cases/100 people) occurred in a Salvador, Brazil neighborhood, between Apr-Jun/2017. Highly clustered cases in space and time, mostly along a single street, highlight an increased risk of CHIKV transmission among pockets of susceptible populations. This finding underscores the need for ongoing local level surveillance for arboviral outbreaks.

Diagnostic performance of commercial IgM and IgG enzyme-linked immunoassays (ELISAs) for diagnosis of Zika virus infection.

BACKGROUND: Serologic detection of Zika virus (ZIKV) infections is challenging because of antigenic similarities among flaviviruses. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of commercial ZIKV IgM and IgG enzyme-linked immunoassay (ELISA) kits. METHODS: We used sera from febrile patients with RT-PCR-confirmed ZIKV infection to determine sensitivity and sera from RT-PCR-confirmed dengue cases and blood donors, both of which were collected before ZIKV epidemics in Brazil (2009-2011 and 2013, respectively) to determine specificity. RESULTS: The ZIKV IgM-ELISA positivity among RT-PCR ZIKV confirmed cases was 0.0% (0/14) and 12.5% (1/8) for acute- and convalescent-phase sera, respectively, while its specificity was 100.0% (58/58) and 98.3% (58/59) for acute- and convalescent-phase sera of dengue patients, and 100.0% (23/23) for blood donors. The ZIKV IgG-ELISA sensitivity was 100.0% (6/6) on convalescent-phase sera from RT-PCR confirmed ZIKV patients, while its specificity was 27.3% (15/55) on convalescent-phase sera from dengue patients and 45.0% (9/20) on blood donors' sera. The ZIKV IgG-ELISA specificity among dengue confirmed cases was much greater among patients with primary dengue (92.3%; 12/13), compared to secondary dengue (7.1%; 3/42). CONCLUSIONS: In a setting of endemic dengue transmission, the ZIKV IgM-ELISA had high specificity, but poor sensitivity. In contrast, the ZIKV IgG-ELISA showed low specificity, particularly for patients previously exposed to dengue infections. This suggests that this ZIKV IgM-ELISA is not useful in confirming a diagnosis of ZIKV infection in suspected patients, whereas the IgG-ELISA is more suitable for ZIKV diagnosis among travelers, who reside in areas free of flavivirus transmission, rather than for serosurveys in dengue-endemic areas.

Congenital brain abnormalities during a Zika virus epidemic in Salvador, Brazil, April 2015 to July 2016.

BackgroundNorth-eastern Brazil was the region most affected by the outbreak of congenital Zika syndrome that followed the 2015 Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemics, with thousands of suspected microcephaly cases reported to the health authorities, mostly between late 2015 and early 2016. Aim: To describe clinical and epidemiological aspects of the outbreak of congenital brain abnormalities (CBAs) and to evaluate the accuracy of different head circumference screening criteria in predicting CBAs.MethodBetween April 2015 and July 2016, the Centers for Information and Epidemiologic Surveillance of Salvador, Brazil investigated the reported cases suspected of microcephaly and, based on intracranial imaging studies, confirmed or excluded a diagnosis of CBA. Sensitivity, specificity and positive and negative predictive values of different head circumference screening criteria in predicting CBAs were calculated.ResultsOf the 365 investigated cases, 166 (45.5%) had confirmed CBAs. The most common findings were intracranial calcifications and ventriculomegaly in 143 (86.1%) and 111 (66.9%) of the 166 CBA cases, respectively. Prevalence of CBAs peaked in December 2015 (2.24 cases/100 live births). Cases of CBAs were significantly more likely to have been born preterm and to mothers who had clinical manifestations of arboviral infection during pregnancy. None of the head circumference screening criteria performed optimally in predicting CBAs.ConclusionThis study highlights the magnitude of neurological consequences of the ZIKV epidemic and the limitations of head circumference in accurately identifying children with CBA. Gestational symptoms compatible with ZIKV infection should be combined with imaging studies for efficient detection of suspect CBAs during ZIKV epidemics.

Variation in Aedes aegypti Mosquito Competence for Zika Virus Transmission.

To test whether Zika virus has adapted for more efficient transmission by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, leading to recent urban outbreaks, we fed mosquitoes from Brazil, the Dominican Republic, and the United States artificial blood meals containing 1 of 3 Zika virus strains (Senegal, Cambodia, Mexico) and monitored infection, dissemination, and virus in saliva. Contrary to our hypothesis, Cambodia and Mexica strains were less infectious than the Senegal strain. Only mosquitoes from the Dominican Republic transmitted the Cambodia and Mexica strains. However, blood meals from viremic mice were more infectious than artificial blood meals of comparable doses; the Cambodia strain was not transmitted by mosquitoes from Brazil after artificial blood meals, whereas 61% transmission occurred after a murine blood meal (saliva titers up to 4 log 10 infectious units/collection). Although regional origins of vector populations and virus strain influence transmission efficiency, Ae. aegypti mosquitoes appear to be competent vectors of Zika virus in several regions of the Americas.

Time-varying, serotype-specific force of infection of dengue virus.

Infectious disease models play a key role in public health planning. These models rely on accurate estimates of key transmission parameters such as the force of infection (FoI), which is the per-capita risk of a susceptible person being infected. The FoI captures the fundamental dynamics of transmission and is crucial for gauging control efforts, such as identifying vaccination targets. Dengue virus (DENV) is a mosquito-borne, multiserotype pathogen that currently infects ∼390 million people a year. Existing estimates of the DENV FoI are inaccurate because they rely on the unrealistic assumption that risk is constant over time. Dengue models are thus unreliable for designing vaccine deployment strategies. Here, we present to our knowledge the first time-varying (daily), serotype-specific estimates of DENV FoIs using a spline-based fitting procedure designed to examine a 12-y, longitudinal DENV serological dataset from Iquitos, Peru (11,703 individuals, 38,416 samples, and 22,301 serotype-specific DENV infections from 1999 to 2010). The yearly DENV FoI varied markedly across time and serotypes (0-0.33), as did daily basic reproductive numbers (0.49-4.72). During specific time periods, the FoI fluctuations correlated across serotypes, indicating that different DENV serotypes shared common transmission drivers. The marked variation in transmission intensity that we detected indicates that intervention targets based on one-time estimates of the FoI could underestimate the level of effort needed to prevent disease. Our description of dengue virus transmission dynamics is unprecedented in detail, providing a basis for understanding the persistence of this rapidly emerging pathogen and improving disease prevention programs.

A tale of two neglected tropical infections: using GIS to assess the spatial and temporal overlap of schistosomiasis and leprosy in a region of Minas Gerais, Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Despite public health efforts to reduce the global burden of leprosy, gaps remain in the knowledge surrounding transmission of infection. Helminth co-infections have been associated with a shift towards the lepromatous end of the disease spectrum, potentially increasing transmission in co-endemic areas. OBJECTIVES: Using this biologically plausible association, we conducted a geographic information systems (GIS) study to investigate the spatial associations of schistosomiasis and leprosy in an endemic area of Minas Gerais (MG), Brazil. METHODS: Data on new cases of Mycobacterium leprae and Schistosoma mansoni infections from 2007-2014 were retrieved from the Brazilian national notifiable diseases information system for seven municipalities in and surrounding Vespasiano, MG. A total of 139 cases of leprosy and 200 cases of schistosomiasis were mapped to a municipality level. For one municipality, cases were mapped to a neighborhood level and a stratified analysis was conducted to identify spatial associations. FINDINGS: A relative risk of 6.80 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.46 - 31.64] of leprosy was found in neighborhoods with schistosomiasis. Incidence rates of leprosy increased with corresponding incidence rates of schistosomiasis, and the temporal trends of both infections were similar. CONCLUSIONS: The associations found in this project support the hypothesis that helminth infections may influence the transmission of leprosy in co-endemic areas.

Time Lags between Exanthematous Illness Attributed to Zika Virus, Guillain-Barré Syndrome, and Microcephaly, Salvador, Brazil.

Zika virus infection emerged as a public health emergency after increasing evidence for its association with neurologic disorders and congenital malformations. In Salvador, Brazil, outbreaks of acute exanthematous illness (AEI) attributed to Zika virus, Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS), and microcephaly occurred in 2015. We investigated temporal correlations and time lags between these outbreaks to identify a common link between them by using epidemic curves and time series cross-correlations. Number of GBS cases peaked after a lag of 5-9 weeks from the AEI peak. Number of suspected cases of microcephaly peaked after a lag of 30-33 weeks from the AEI peak, which corresponded to time of potential infections of pregnant mothers during the first trimester. These findings support the association of GBS and microcephaly with Zika virus infection and provide evidence for a temporal relationship between timing of arboviral infection of pregnant women during the first trimester and birth outcome.

Calling in sick: impacts of fever on intra-urban human mobility.

Pathogens inflict a wide variety of disease manifestations on their hosts, yet the impacts of disease on the behaviour of infected hosts are rarely studied empirically and are seldom accounted for in mathematical models of transmission dynamics. We explored the potential impacts of one of the most common disease manifestations, fever, on a key determinant of pathogen transmission, host mobility, in residents of the Amazonian city of Iquitos, Peru. We did so by comparing two groups of febrile individuals (dengue-positive and dengue-negative) with an afebrile control group. A retrospective, semi-structured interview allowed us to quantify multiple aspects of mobility during the two-week period preceding each interview. We fitted nested models of each aspect of mobility to data from interviews and compared models using likelihood ratio tests to determine whether there were statistically distinguishable differences in mobility attributable to fever or its aetiology. Compared with afebrile individuals, febrile study participants spent more time at home, visited fewer locations, and, in some cases, visited locations closer to home and spent less time at certain types of locations. These multifaceted impacts are consistent with the possibility that disease-mediated changes in host mobility generate dynamic and complex changes in host contact network structure.