A National Study of Expedited Partner Therapy Use in Emergency Departments: A Survey of Medical Director Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices.

BACKGROUND: Emergency departments (EDs) are the primary source of health care for many patients diagnosed with sexually transmitted infections (STIs). Expedited partner therapy (EPT), treating the partner of patients with STIs, is an evidence-based practice for patients who might not otherwise seek care. Little is known about the use of EPT in the ED. In a national survey, we describe ED medical directors' knowledge, attitudes, and practices of EPT. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey of medical directors from academic EDs was conducted from July to September 2020 using the Academy of Academic Administrators of Emergency Medicine Benchmarking Group. Primary outcomes were EPT awareness, support, and use. The survey also examined barriers and facilitators. RESULTS: Forty-eight of 70 medical directors (69%) responded. Seventy-three percent were aware of EPT, but fewer knew how to prescribe it (38%), and only 19% of EDs had implemented EPT. Seventy-nine percent supported EPT and were more likely to if they were aware of EPT (89% vs. 54%; P = 0.01). Of nonimplementers, 41% thought EPT was feasible, and 56% thought departmental support would be likely. Emergency department directors were most concerned about legal liability, but a large proportion (44%) viewed preventing sequelae of untreated STIs as "extremely important." CONCLUSIONS: Emergency department medical directors expressed strong support for EPT and reasonable levels of feasibility for implementation but low utilization. Our findings highlight the need to identify mechanisms for EPT implementation in EDs.

Characterizing Acute Pulmonary Embolism Cases Diagnosed at an Emergency Department Revisit Using a Statewide Clinical Registry.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To assess the rate and characteristics of acute pulmonary embolism (PE) cases diagnosed in the emergency department (ED) following an ED discharge visit within 10 days. METHODS: This is a retrospective analysis of 40 EDs in a statewide clinical registry from 2017 to 2022. We identified adult patients with acute PEs diagnosed in the ED. We assessed PE cases wherein a prior ED visit for the same patient resulting in discharge had taken place within 10 days without interval hospitalization. We then characterized the overall rate of revisit PE cases per overall acute PE cases and per 10,000 ED discharges. We also reported on subgroups of revisit cases where the preceding visit resulted in diagnosis of COVID-19, other cardiopulmonary conditions, and cardiopulmonary symptom codes (eg, chest pain, unspecified). RESULTS: Of 24,525 acute PEs, 1,202 (4.9%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 4.6% to 5.2%) had an ED discharge within the preceding 10 days (2.0 per 10,000 ED discharges, 95% CI 1.9 to 2.1). Two hundred thirty-three (19.4%) were originally discharged with a COVID-19 diagnosis, 107 (8.9%) were originally discharged with another cardiopulmonary condition, and 201 (16.7%) were cases discharged with a nonspecific cardiopulmonary symptom code. Discharges with diagnoses of COVID-19, pneumonia, and pleural effusion had higher rates of revisits with acute PE. CONCLUSION: In this retrospective analysis, about 1 in 20 acute PEs and 2 in 10,000 ED discharges were associated with an ED revisit for acute PE. Some cases may represent potential diagnostic opportunities, whereas others may be progression of disease, risk factors for PE, or unrelated.

Geriatric Emergency Medication Safety Recommendations (GEMS-Rx): Modified Delphi Development of a High-Risk Prescription List for Older Emergency Department Patients.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Half of emergency department (ED) patients aged 65 years and older are discharged with new prescriptions. Potentially inappropriate prescriptions contribute to adverse drug events. Our objective was to develop an evidence- and consensus-based list of high-risk prescriptions to avoid among older ED patients. METHODS: We performed a modified, 3-round Delphi process that included 10 ED physician experts in geriatrics or quality measurement and 1 pharmacist. Consensus members reviewed all 35 medication categories from the 2019 American Geriatrics Society Beers Criteria and ranked each on a 5-point Likert scale (5=highest) for overall priority for avoidance (Round 1), risk of short-term adverse events and avoidability (Round 2), and reasonable medical indications for high-risk medication use (Round 3). RESULTS: For each round, questionnaire response rates were 91%, 82%, and 64%, respectively. After Round 1, benzodiazepines (mean, 4.60 [SD, 0.70]), skeletal muscle relaxants (4.60 [0.70]), barbiturates (4.30 [1.06]), first-generation antipsychotics (4.20 [0.63]) and first-generation antihistamines (3.70 [1.49]) were prioritized for avoidance. In Rounds 2 and 3, hypnotic "Z" drugs (4.29 [1.11]), metoclopramide (3.89 [0.93]), and sulfonylureas (4.14 [1.07]) were prioritized for avoidability, despite lower concern for short-term adverse events. All 8 medication classes were included in the final list. Reasonable indications for prescribing high-risk medications included seizure disorders, benzodiazepine/ethanol withdrawal, end of life, severe generalized anxiety, allergic reactions, gastroparesis, and prescription refill. CONCLUSION: We present the first expert consensus-based list of high-risk prescriptions for older ED patients (GEMS-Rx) to improve safety among older ED patients.

Longitudinal changes in the US emergency department use of advanced neuroimaging in the mechanical thrombectomy era.

PURPOSE: To describe ED neuroimaging trends across the time-period spanning the early adoption of endovascular therapy for acute stroke (2013-2018). MATERIALS AND METHODS: We performed a retrospective, cross-sectional study of ED visits using the 2013-2018 National Emergency Department Sample, a 20% sample of ED encounters in the United States. Neuroimaging use was determined by Common Procedural Terminology (CPT) code for non-contrast head CT (NCCT), CT angiography head (CTA), CT perfusion (CTP), and MRI brain (MRI) in non-admitted ED patients. Data was analyzed according to sampling weights and imaging rates were calculated per 100,000 ED visits. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify hospital-level factors associated with imaging utilization. RESULTS: Study population comprised 571,935,906 weighted adult ED encounters. Image utilization increased between 2013 and 2018 for all modalities studied, although more pronounced in CTA (80.24/100,000 ED visits to 448.26/100,000 ED visits (p < 0.001)) and CTP (1.75/100,000 ED visits to 28.04/100,000 ED visits p < 0.001)). Regression analysis revealed that teaching hospitals were associated with higher odds of high CTA utilization (OR 1.88 for 2018, p < 0.05), while low-volume EDs and public hospitals showed the reverse (OR 0.39 in 2018, p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: We identified substantial increases in overall neuroimaging use in a national sample of non-admitted emergency department encounters between 2013 and 2018 with variability in utilization according to both patient and hospital properties. Further investigation into the appropriateness of this imaging is required to ensure that access to acute stroke treatment is balanced against the timing and cost of over-imaging.

A Quality Framework to Address Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Emergency Department Care.

The emergency department serves as a vital source of health care for residents in the United States, including as a safety net. However, patients from minoritized racial and ethnic groups have historically experienced disproportionate barriers to accessing health care services and lower quality of services than White patients. Quality measures and their application to quality improvement initiatives represent a critical opportunity to incentivize health care systems to advance health equity and reduce health disparities. Currently, there are no nationally recognized quality measures that track the quality of emergency care delivery by race and ethnicity and no published frameworks to guide the development and prioritization of quality measures to reduce health disparities in emergency care. To address these gaps, the American College of Emergency Physicians (ACEP) convened a working group of experts in quality measurement, health disparities, and health equity to develop guidance on establishing quality measures to address racial and ethnic disparities in the provision of emergency care. Based on iterative discussion over 3 working group meetings, we present a summary of existing emergency medicine quality measures that should be adapted to track racial and ethnic disparities, as well as a framework for developing new measures that focus on disparities in access to emergency care, care delivery, and transitions of care.

Development of a Novel Emergency Department Quality Measure to Reduce Very Low-Risk Syncope Hospitalizations.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Emergency department (ED) evaluations for syncope are common, representing 1.3 million annual US visits and $2 billion in related hospitalizations. Despite evidence supporting risk stratification and outpatient management, variation in syncope hospitalization rates persist. We sought to develop a new quality measure for very low-risk adult ED patients with syncope that could be applied to administrative data. METHODS: We developed this quality measure in 2 phases. First, we used an existing prospective, observational ED patient data set to identify a very low-risk cohort with unexplained syncope using 2 variables: age less than 50 years and no history of heart disease. We then applied this to the 2019 Nationwide Emergency Department Sample (NEDS) to assess its potential effect, assessing for hospital-level factors associated with hospitalization variation. RESULTS: Of the 8,647 adult patients in the prospective cohort, 3,292 (38%) patients fulfilled these 2 criteria: age less than 50 years and no history of heart disease. Of these, 15 (0.46%) suffered serious adverse events within 30 days. In the NEDS, there were an estimated 566,031 patients meeting these 2 criteria, of whom 15,507 (2.7%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.48% to 3.00%) were hospitalized. We found substantial variation in the hospitalization rates for this very low-risk cohort, with a median rate of 1.7% (range 0% to 100%; interquartile range 0% to 3.9%). Factors associated with increased hospitalization rates included a yearly ED volume of more than 80,000 (odds ratio [OR] 3.14; 95% CI 2.02 to 4.89) and metropolitan teaching status (OR 1.5; 95% CI 1.24 to 1.81). CONCLUSION: In summary, our novel syncope quality measure can assess variation in low-value hospitalizations for unexplained syncope. The application of this measure could improve the value of syncope care.

Naloxone and Buprenorphine Prescribing Following US Emergency Department Visits for Suspected Opioid Overdose: August 2019 to April 2021.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Nonfatal emergency department (ED) visits for opioid overdose are important opportunities to prescribe naloxone and buprenorphine, both of which can prevent future overdose-related mortality. We assessed the rate of this prescribing using national data from August 2019 to April 2021, a period during which US opioid overdose deaths reached record levels. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis using Symphony Health's Integrated Dataverse, which includes data from 5,800 hospitals and 70,000 pharmacies. Of ED visits for opioid overdose between August 4, 2019, and April 3, 2021, we calculated the proportion with at least 1 naloxone prescription within 30 days and repeated this analysis for buprenorphine. To contextualize the naloxone prescribing rate, we calculated the proportion of ED visits for anaphylaxis with at least 1 prescription for epinephrine-another life-saving rescue medication-within 30 days. RESULTS: Analyses included 148,966 ED visits for opioid overdose. Mean weekly visits increased 23.6% during the period between April 26, 2020 and October 3, 2020 compared with the period between August 4, 2019 to April 25, 2020. Visits declined to prepandemic levels between October 4, 2020 and March 13, 2021, after which visits began to rise. Naloxone and buprenorphine were prescribed within 30 days at 7.4% and 8.5% of the 148,966 visits, respectively. The naloxone prescribing rate (7.4%) was substantially lower than the epinephrine prescribing rate (48.9%) after ED visits for anaphylaxis. CONCLUSION: Between August 4, 2019, and April 3, 2021, naloxone and buprenorphine were only prescribed after 1 in 13 and 1 in 12 ED visits for opioid overdose, respectively. Findings suggest that clinicians are missing critical opportunities to prevent opioid overdose-related mortality.

Factors associated with naloxone availability and dispensing through Michigan's pharmacy standing order.

Background: Pharmacy standing order policies allow pharmacists to dispense naloxone, thereby increasing access to naloxone. Objectives: To describe pharmacy standing order participation and associations of pharmacy and community characteristics that predict naloxone availability and dispensing across eight counties in Michigan. Methods: We conducted a telephone survey of 662 standing order pharmacies with a response rate of 81% (n = 539). Pharmacies were linked with census tract-level demographics, overdose fatality rates, and dispensing data. County maps were created to visualize pharmacy locations relative to fatality rates. Regression models analyzed associations between pharmacy type, neighborhood characteristics, fatality rates, and these outcomes: naloxone availability, having ever dispensed naloxone, and counts of naloxone dispensed. Results: The prevalence of standing order pharmacies was 54% (n = 662/1231). Maps revealed areas with higher fatality rates had fewer pharmacies participating in the standing order or lacked any pharmacy access. Among standing order pharmacies surveyed, 85% (n = 458/539) had naloxone available and 82% had ever dispensed (n = 333/406). The mean out-of-pocket cost of Narcan® was $127.77 (SD: 23.93). National chains were more likely than regional chains to stock naloxone (AOR = 3.75, 95%CI = 1.77, 7.93) and to have ever dispensed naloxone (AOR 3.02, 95%CI = 1.21,7.57). Higher volume of naloxone dispensed was associated in neighborhoods with greater proportions of public health insurance (IRR = 1.38, 95%CI = 1.21, 1.58) and populations under 44 years old (IRR = 1.24, 95%CI = 1.04, 1.48). There was no association with neighborhood overdose fatality rates or race in regression models. Conclusion: As deaths from the opioid epidemic continue to escalate, efforts to expand naloxone access through greater standing order pharmacy participation are warranted.

Emergency Department Utilization and Readmissions Following Major Surgery: A Retrospective Study of Medicare Data.

BACKGROUND: Reliable strategies for reducing postoperative readmissions remain elusive. As the emergency department (ED) is a frequent source of post-operative admissions, we investigated whether hospitals with high readmission rates also have high rates of post-discharge ED visits and high rates of readmission once an ED visit occurs. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of 1,947,621 Medicare beneficiaries undergoing 1 of 5 common procedures in 2,894 hospitals between 2008 and 2011. We stratified hospitals into quintiles based on risk-standardized, 30-day post-discharge readmission rates (RSRR) and then compared rates of post-discharge ED visits, proportion readmitted from the ED, and readmissions within 7 days of ED discharge across these quintiles. RESULTS: RSRR varied widely across extremes of hospital quintiles (3.9% to 17.5%). Hospitals with either very low or very high RSRR had modest differences in rates of ED visits (12.4% versus 14.6%). In contrast, the proportion readmitted from the ED was nearly 3 times greater in Hospitals with very high RSRR compared with those with very low RSRR (12% versus 32.2%). These findings were consistent across all procedures. Importantly, hospitals with a low proportion readmitted from the ED did not exhibit an increased rate of readmission within 7 days of ED discharge. CONCLUSIONS: Although hospitals experience similar rates of ED visits following major surgery, some EDs and their affiliated surgeons and health system may deliver care preventing readmissions without an increased short-term risk of readmission following ED discharge. Reducing 30-day readmissions requires greater attention to the coordination of care delivered in the ED.

Differences in Outcomes Associated With Individual Radiologists for Emergency Department Patients With Headache Imaged With CT: A Retrospective Cohort Study of 25,596 Patients.

OBJECTIVE. The purpose of this study was to determine whether diagnostic radiologists impart variation into resource use and patient outcomes in emergency department (ED) patients undergoing CT for headache. MATERIALS AND METHODS. This was a single-institution retrospective quality assurance cohort study of 25,596 unique adult ED patients undergoing head CT for headache from January 2012 to October 2017. CT examinations were interpreted by 55 attending radiologists (25 neuroradiologists, 30 radiologists of other specialties) who each interpreted a mean of 1469.8 ± 787.9 CT examinations. Risk adjustment for variables thought to influence outcome included baseline risk (demographics, Elixhauser comorbidity score), clinical factors (vital signs, ED triage and pain scores, laboratory data, hydrocephalus, prior intracranial hemorrhage, neurosurgical consultation within last 12 months), and system factors (time of CT, physician experience, neuroradiology training). Multivariable models were built to analyze the effect of individual radiologists on subsequent outcomes. Any p value less than 0.007 was considered significant after Bonferroni correction. RESULTS. The study found 57.5% (14,718/25,596) of CT interpretations were performed by neuroradiologists, and most patients (98.1% [25,119/25,596]) had no neurosurgical history. After risk adjustment, individual radiologists were not an independent predictor of hospital admission (p = 0.49), 30-day readmission (p = 0.30), 30-day mortality (p = 0.14), or neurosurgical intervention (p = 0.04) but did predict MRI use (p < 0.001; odds ratio [OR] range among radiologists, 0.009-38.2), neurology consultation (p < 0.001; OR range, 0.4-3.2), and neurosurgical consultation (p < 0.001; OR range, 0.1-9.9). CONCLUSION. Radiologists with different skills, experience, and practice patterns appear interchangeable for major clinical outcomes when interpreting CT for headache in the ED, but their differences predict differential use of downstream health care resources. Resource use measures are potential quality indicators in this cohort.

Baseline Performance of Real-World Clinical Practice Within a Statewide Emergency Medicine Quality Network: The Michigan Emergency Department Improvement Collaborative (MEDIC).

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Large-scale quality and performance measurement across unaffiliated hospitals is an important strategy to drive practice change. The Michigan Emergency Department Improvement Collaborative (MEDIC), established in 2015, has baseline performance data to identify practice variation across 15 diverse emergency departments (EDs) on key emergency care quality indicators. METHODS: MEDIC is a unique physician-led partnership supported by a major third-party payer. Member sites contribute electronic health record data and trained abstractors add supplementary data for eligible cases. Quality measures include computed tomography (CT) appropriateness for minor head injury, using the Canadian CT Head Rule for adults and Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Network rules for children; chest radiograph use for children with asthma, bronchiolitis, and croup; and diagnostic yield of CTs for suspected pulmonary embolism. Baseline performance was established with statistical process control charts. RESULTS: From June 1, 2016, to October 31, 2017, the MEDIC registry contained 1,124,227 ED visits, 23.2% for children (<18 years). Overall baseline performance included the following: 40.9% of adult patients with minor head injury (N=11,857) had appropriate CTs (site range 24.3% to 58.6%), 10.3% of pediatric minor head injury cases (N=11,183) exhibited CT overuse (range 5.8% to 16.8%), 38.1% of pediatric patients with a respiratory condition (N=18,190) received a chest radiograph (range 9.0% to 62.1%), and 8.7% of pulmonary embolism CT results (N=16,205) were positive (range 7.5% to 14.3%). CONCLUSION: Performance varied greatly, with demonstrated opportunity for improvement. MEDIC provides a robust platform for emergency physician engagement across ED practice settings to improve care and is a model for other states.

A latent variable approach to potential outcomes for emergency department admission decisions.

In emergency departments (EDs), care providers continuously weigh admissions against continued monitoring and treatment often without knowing their condition and health needs. To understand the decision process and its causal effect on outcomes, an observational study must contend with unobserved/missing information and a lack of exchangeability between admitted and discharged patients. Our goal was to provide a general framework to evaluate admission decisions from electronic healthcare records (EHRs). We describe admission decisions as a decision-making process in which the patient's health needs is a binary latent variable. We estimate latent health needs from EHR with only partial knowledge of the decision process (ie, initial evaluation, admission decision, length of stay). Estimated latent health needs are then used to understand the admission decision and the decision's causal impact on outcomes. For the latter, we assume potential outcomes are stochastically independent from the admission decision conditional on latent health needs. As a case study, we apply our approach to over 150 000 patient encounters with the ED from the University of Michigan Health System collected from August 2012 through July 2015. We estimate that while admitting a patient with higher latent needs reduces the 30-day risk of revisiting the ED or later being admitted through the ED by over 79%, admitting a patient with lower latent needs actually increases these 30-day risks by 3.0% and 7.6%, respectively.

Postdischarge Unplanned Care Events Among Commercially Insured Patients With an Observation Stay Versus Short Inpatient Admission.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Observation stays are composing an increasing proportion of unscheduled hospitalizations in the United States, with unclear consequences for the quality of care. This study used a nationally representative data set of commercially insured patients hospitalized from the emergency department (ED) to compare 30-day postdischarge unplanned care events after an observation stay versus a short inpatient admission. METHODS: This was a retrospective analysis of ED hospitalizations using the 2015 Truven MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounters data set. Adult observation stays and short inpatient hospitalizations of 2 days or less were identified and followed for 30 days from hospital discharge to identify unplanned care events, defined as a subsequent inpatient admission, observation stay, or return ED visit. A propensity score analysis was used to compare rates of unplanned events after each type of index hospitalization. RESULTS: Among the propensity-weighted cohorts, patients with an index observation stay were 28% more likely to experience any unplanned care event within 30 days of discharge compared with those with a short inpatient admission (20.4% versus 15.9%; risk ratio 1.28; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.21 to 1.34). Specifically, patients in the observation stay group had substantially higher rates of postdischarge observation stays (4.8% versus 1.9%; odds ratio 2.60; 95% CI 2.15 to 3.16) and ED revisits with discharge (11.1% versus 8.8%; odds ratio 1.26; 95% CI 1.21 to 1.44) compared with those in the inpatient group, but were less likely to be readmitted as inpatients (6.4% versus 7.2%; odds ratio 0.90; 95% CI 0.83 to 0.96). CONCLUSION: Commercially insured patients with an observation stay from the ED have a higher risk of postdischarge acute care events compared with similar patients with a short inpatient admission. Additional research is necessary to determine the extent to which quality of care, including care transitions, may differ between these 2 groups.

Novel Quality Indicators for Radiologists Interpreting Abdominopelvic CT Images: Risk-Adjusted Outcomes Among Emergency Department Patients With Right Lower Quadrant Pain.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to determine whether individual radiologists are predictive of important relevant health outcomes among emergency department (ED) patients undergoing abdominopelvic CT for right lower quadrant pain. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This single-institution retrospective cohort study included 2169 patients undergoing abdominopelvic CT for right lower quadrant pain in the ED from February 1, 2012, through August 31, 2016. CT examinations were interpreted by 15 radiologists (four emergency, 11 abdominal) who each reported on more than 70 CT examinations in the cohort. After risk adjustment for covariates thought to influence outcome, including baseline risk (demographics, 30 Elixhauser comorbidities, number of previous ED visits), clinical factors (vital signs, triage and pain scores, laboratory data), and system factors (time of CT, resident involvement, attending physician experience), multivariable models were built to analyze the effect of individual radiologists on four important health outcomes: hospital admission (primary outcome), readmission within 30 days, abdominal surgery, and image-guided percutaneous aspiration or drainage. RESULTS: Radiologists had a mean experience of 14 years (range, 2-36 years) and read a mean of 145 CT examinations in the study cohort (range, 73-253 examinations). Unadjusted event rates across the 15 radiologists were 38-55% (admission), 11-21% (readmission), 10-26% (surgery), and 0-3% (aspiration or drainage). After risk adjustment, individual radiologists were not a significant multivariable predictor of hospital admission, readmission within 30 days, abdominal surgery, or image-guided abdominal percutaneous aspiration or drainage (all p > 0.05). CONCLUSION: Individual radiologists were indistinguishable both within group and between group by emergency and abdominal specialization for the prediction of major patient outcomes after abdominopelvic CT performed for right lower quadrant pain in the ED.

Informing Medicare's Two-Midnight Rule Policy With an Analysis of Hospital-Based Long Observation Stays.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Outpatient observation stays are increasingly substituting for standard inpatient hospitalizations. In 2013, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services adopted the controversial Two-Midnight Rule policy to curb long observation stays and better define the use of hospital-based observation services versus inpatient hospitalizations. We seek to determine the extent to which Medicare beneficiaries exposed to long observation stays (>48 hours) are clinically similar to those with short observation stays (≤48 hours) because this has relevance to the Two-Midnight Rule. METHODS: Using 100% Medicare claims data from 2008 to 2010, we identified all patients with long observation stays (>48 hours) who were admitted through the emergency department (ED). We report beneficiary characteristics, as well as crude and risk-adjusted 30-day rates of mortality, readmissions, and return ED visits stratified by observation stay length. RESULTS: Seven percent of 2.8 million observation stays were greater than 48 hours. Beneficiaries with long observation stays tended to be older, women, nonwhite, and urban residents, with a greater number of comorbid conditions. Crude rates increased with observation stay length for all 3 outcomes. However, after directly standardizing the rates, we observed the reverse trend because all adjusted rates decreased stepwise with observation stay length greater than 48 hours in a dose-response pattern. CONCLUSION: Patients with observation stays lasting longer than 48 hours are a clinically distinct population. Our findings support the conceptual underpinnings of the Two-Midnight Rule, but suggest that observation versus inpatient determinations should be based on actual length of stay rather than prospective prediction to reduce the administrative ambiguity this policy has created.

Exploring the Potential of Predictive Analytics and Big Data in Emergency Care.

Clinical research often focuses on resource-intensive causal inference, whereas the potential of predictive analytics with constantly increasing big data sources remains largely unexplored. Basic prediction, divorced from causal inference, is much easier with big data. Emergency care may benefit from this simpler application of big data. Historically, predictive analytics have played an important role in emergency care as simple heuristics for risk stratification. These tools generally follow a standard approach: parsimonious criteria, easy computability, and independent validation with distinct populations. Simplicity in a prediction tool is valuable, but technological advances make it no longer a necessity. Emergency care could benefit from clinical predictions built using data science tools with abundant potential input variables available in electronic medical records. Patients' risks could be stratified more precisely with large pools of data and lower resource requirements for comparing each clinical encounter to those that came before it, benefiting clinical decisionmaking and health systems operations. The largest value of predictive analytics comes early in the clinical encounter, in which diagnostic and prognostic uncertainty are high and resource-committing decisions need to be made. We propose an agenda for widening the application of predictive analytics in emergency care. Throughout, we express cautious optimism because there are myriad challenges related to database infrastructure, practitioner uptake, and patient acceptance. The quality of routinely compiled clinical data will remain an important limitation. Complementing big data sources with prospective data may be necessary if predictive analytics are to achieve their full potential to improve care quality in the emergency department.

In-Hospital Outcomes and Costs Among Patients Hospitalized During a Return Visit to the Emergency Department.

IMPORTANCE: Unscheduled short-term return visits to the emergency department (ED) are increasingly monitored as a hospital performance measure and have been proposed as a measure of the quality of emergency care. OBJECTIVE: To examine in-hospital clinical outcomes and resource use among patients who are hospitalized during an unscheduled return visit to the ED. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Retrospective analysis of adult ED visits to acute care hospitals in Florida and New York in 2013 using data from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project. Patients with index ED visits were identified and followed up for return visits to the ED within 7, 14, and 30 days. EXPOSURES: Hospital admission occurring during an initial visit to the ED vs during a return visit to the ED. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: In-hospital mortality, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, length of stay, and inpatient costs. RESULTS: Among the 9,036,483 index ED visits to 424 hospitals in the study sample, 1,758,359 patients were admitted to the hospital during the index ED visit. Of these patients, 149,214 (8.5%) had a return visit to the ED within 7 days of the index ED visit, 228,370 (13.0%) within 14 days, and 349,335 (19.9%) within 30 days, and 76,151 (51.0%), 122,040 (53.4%), and 190,768 (54.6%), respectively, were readmitted to the hospital. Among the 7,278,124 patients who were discharged during the index ED visit, 598,404 (8.2%) had a return visit to the ED within 7 days, 839,386 (11.5%) within 14 days, and 1,205,865 (16.6%) within 30 days. Of these patients, 86,012 (14.4%) were admitted to the hospital within 7 days, 121,587 (14.5%) within 14 days, and 173,279 (14.4%) within 30 days. The 86,012 patients discharged from the ED and admitted to the hospital during a return ED visit within 7 days had significantly lower rates of in-hospital mortality (1.85%) compared with the 1,609,145 patients who were admitted during the index ED visit without a return ED visit (2.48%) (odds ratio, 0.73 [95% CI, 0.69-0.78]), lower rates of ICU admission (23.3% vs 29.0%, respectively; odds ratio, 0.73 [95% CI, 0.71-0.76]), lower mean costs ($10,169 vs $10,799; difference, $629 [95% CI, $479-$781]), and longer lengths of stay (5.16 days vs 4.97 days; IRR, 1.04 [95% CI, 1.03-1.05]). Similar outcomes were observed for patients returning to the ED within 14 and 30 days of the index ED visit. In contrast, patients who returned to the ED after hospital discharge and were readmitted had higher rates of in-hospital mortality and ICU admission, longer lengths of stay, and higher costs during the repeat hospital admission compared with those admitted to the hospital during the index ED visit without a return ED visit. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Compared with adult patients who were hospitalized during the index ED visit and did not have a return visit to the ED, patients who were initially discharged during an ED visit and admitted during a return visit to the ED had lower in-hospital mortality, ICU admission rates, and in-hospital costs and longer lengths of stay. These findings suggest that hospital admissions associated with return visits to the ED may not adequately capture deficits in the quality of care delivered during an ED visit.

Variation in practice patterns among specialties in the acute management of atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is commonly managed by a variety of specialists. Current guidelines differ in their recommendations leading to uncertainty regarding important clinical decisions. We sought to document practice pattern variation among cardiologists, emergency physicians (EP) and hospitalists at a single academic, tertiary-care center. METHODS: A survey was created containing seven clinical scenarios of patients presenting with AF. We analyzed respondent choices regarding rate vs rhythm control, thromboembolic treatment and hospitalization strategies. Finally, we contrasted our findings with a comparable Australasian survey to provide an international reference. RESULTS: There was a 78% response rate (124 of 158), 37% hospitalists, 31.5% cardiologists, and 31.5% EP. Most respondents chose rate over rhythm control (92.2%; 95% CI, 89.1% - 94.5%) and thromboembolic treatment (67.8%; 95% CI, 63.8% - 71.7%). Compared to both hospitalists and EPs, cardiologists were more likely to choose thromboembolic treatment for new and paroxysmal AF (adjusted OR 2.38; 95% CI, 1.05 - 5.41). They were less likely to favor hospital admission across all types of AF (adjusted OR 0.36; 95% CI, 0.17 - 0.79) but thought cardiology consultation was more important (adjusted OR 1.88, 95% CI, 0.97 - 3.64). Australasian physicians were more aggressive with rhythm control for paroxysmal AF with low CHADS2 score compared to US physicians. CONCLUSIONS: Significant variation exists among specialties in the management of acute AF, likely reflecting a lack of high quality research to direct the provider. Future studies may help to standardize practice leading to decreased rates of hospitalization and overall cost.