Post-imaging pulmonary nodule mathematical prediction models: are they clinically relevant?

OBJECTIVES: Post-imaging mathematical prediction models (MPMs) provide guidance for the management of solid pulmonary nodules by providing a lung cancer risk score from demographic and radiologists-indicated imaging characteristics. We hypothesized calibrating the MPM risk score threshold to a local study cohort would result in improved performance over the original recommended MPM thresholds. We compared the pre- and post-calibration performance of four MPM models and determined if improvement in MPM prediction occurs as nodules are imaged longitudinally. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A common cohort of 317 individuals with computed tomography-detected, solid nodules (80 malignant, 237 benign) were used to evaluate the MPM performance. We created a web-based application for this study that allows others to easily calibrate thresholds and analyze the performance of MPMs on their local cohort. Thirty patients with repeated imaging were tested for improved performance longitudinally. RESULTS: Using calibrated thresholds, Mayo Clinic and Brock University (BU) MPMs performed the best (AUC = 0.63, 0.61) compared to the Veteran's Affairs (0.51) and Peking University (0.55). Only BU had consensus with the original MPM threshold; the other calibrated thresholds improved MPM accuracy. No significant improvements in accuracy were found longitudinally between time points. CONCLUSIONS: Calibration to a common cohort can select the best-performing MPM for your institution. Without calibration, BU has the most stable performance in solid nodules ≥ 8 mm but has only moderate potential to refine subjects into appropriate workup. Application of MPM is recommended only at initial evaluation as no increase in accuracy was achieved over time. KEY POINTS: • Post-imaging lung cancer risk mathematical predication models (MPMs) perform poorly on local populations without calibration. • An application is provided to facilitate calibration to new study cohorts: the Mayo Clinic model, the U.S. Department of Veteran's Affairs model, the Brock University model, and the Peking University model. • No significant improvement in risk prediction occurred in nodules with repeated imaging sessions, indicating the potential value of risk prediction application is limited to the initial evaluation.

Machine learning approach for distinguishing malignant and benign lung nodules utilizing standardized perinodular parenchymal features from CT.

PURPOSE: Computed tomography (CT) is an effective method for detecting and characterizing lung nodules in vivo. With the growing use of chest CT, the detection frequency of lung nodules is increasing. Noninvasive methods to distinguish malignant from benign nodules have the potential to decrease the clinical burden, risk, and cost involved in follow-up procedures on the large number of false-positive lesions detected. This study examined the benefit of including perinodular parenchymal features in machine learning (ML) tools for pulmonary nodule assessment. METHODS: Lung nodule cases with pathology confirmed diagnosis (74 malignant, 289 benign) were used to extract quantitative imaging characteristics from computed tomography scans of the nodule and perinodular parenchyma tissue. A ML tool development pipeline was employed using k-medoids clustering and information theory to determine efficient predictor sets for different amounts of parenchyma inclusion and build an artificial neural network classifier. The resulting ML tool was validated using an independent cohort (50 malignant, 50 benign). RESULTS: The inclusion of parenchymal imaging features improved the performance of the ML tool over exclusively nodular features (P < 0.01). The best performing ML tool included features derived from nodule diameter-based surrounding parenchyma tissue quartile bands. We demonstrate similar high-performance values on the independent validation cohort (AUC-ROC = 0.965). A comparison using the independent validation cohort with the Fleischner pulmonary nodule follow-up guidelines demonstrated a theoretical reduction in recommended follow-up imaging and procedures. CONCLUSIONS: Radiomic features extracted from the parenchyma surrounding lung nodules contain valid signals with spatial relevance for the task of lung cancer risk classification. Through standardization of feature extraction regions from the parenchyma, ML tool validation performance of 100% sensitivity and 96% specificity was achieved.