Changes in the upper ocean mixed layer and phytoplankton productivity along the West Antarctic Peninsula.

The West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) has experienced significant change over the last 50 years. Using a 24 year spatial time series collected by the Palmer Long Term Ecological Research programme, we assessed long-term patterns in the sea ice, upper mixed layer depth (MLD) and phytoplankton productivity. The number of sea ice days steadily declined from the 1980s until a recent reversal that began in 2008. Results show regional differences between the northern and southern regions sampled during regional ship surveys conducted each austral summer. In the southern WAP, upper ocean MLD has shallowed by a factor of 2. Associated with the shallower mixed layer is enhanced phytoplankton carbon fixation. In the north, significant interannual variability resulted in the mixed layer showing no trended change over time and there was no significant increase in the phytoplankton productivity. Associated with the recent increases in sea ice there has been an increase in the photosynthetic efficiency (chlorophyll a-normalized carbon fixation) in the northern and southern regions of the WAP. We hypothesize the increase in sea ice results in increased micronutrient delivery to the continental shelf which in turn leads to enhanced photosynthetic performance.This article is part of the theme issue 'The marine system of the West Antarctic Peninsula: status and strategy for progress in a region of rapid change'.

Variability in summer surface residence time within a West Antarctic Peninsula biological hotspot.

Palmer Deep canyon along the central West Antarctic Peninsula is known to have higher phytoplankton biomass than the surrounding non-canyon regions, but the circulation mechanisms that transport and locally concentrate phytoplankton and Antarctic krill, potentially increasing prey availability to upper-trophic-level predators such as penguins and cetaceans, are currently unknown. We deployed a three-site high-frequency radar network that provided hourly surface circulation maps over the Palmer Deep hotspot. A series of particle release experiments were used to estimate surface residence time and connectivity across the canyon. The majority of residence times fell between 1.0 and 3.5 days, with a mean of 2 days and a maximum of 5 days. We found a highly significant negative relationship between wind speed and residence time. Our residence time analysis indicates that the elevated phytoplankton biomass over the central canyon is transported into and out of the hotspot on time scales much shorter than the observed phytoplankton growth rate, suggesting that the canyon may not act as an incubator of phytoplankton productivity as previously suggested. It may instead serve more as a conveyor belt of phytoplankton biomass produced elsewhere, continually replenishing the phytoplankton biomass for the local Antarctic krill community, which in turn supports numerous top predators.This article is part of the theme issue 'The marine system of the West Antarctic Peninsula: status and strategy for progress in a region of rapid change'.

Sensitivity of marine fish thermal habitat models to fishery data sources.

Statistical models built using different data sources and methods can exhibit conflicting patterns. We used the northern stock of black sea bass (Centropristis striata) as a case study to assess the impacts of using different fisheries data sources and laboratory-derived physiological metrics in the development of thermal habitat models for marine fishes. We constructed thermal habitat models using generalized additive models (GAMs) based on various fisheries datasets as input, including the NOAA Northeast Fisheries Science Center (NEFSC) bottom trawl surveys, various inshore fisheries-independent trawl surveys (state waters), NEFSC fisheries-dependent observer data, and laboratory-based physiological metrics. We compared each model's GAM response curve and coupled them to historical ocean conditions in the U.S. Northeast Shelf using bias-corrected ocean temperature output from a regional ocean model. Thermal habitat models based on shelf-wide data (NEFSC fisheries-dependent observer data and fisheries-independent spring and fall surveys) explained the most variation in black sea bass presence/absence data at ~15% deviance explained. Models based on a narrower range of sampled thermal habitat from inshore survey data in the Northeast Area Monitoring and Assessment Program (NEAMAP) and the geographically isolated Long Island Sound data performed poorly. All models had similar lower thermal limits around 8.5℃, but thermal optima, when present, ranged from 16.7 to 24.8℃. The GAMs could reliably predict habitat from years excluded from model training, but due to strong seasonal temperature fluctuations in the region, could not be used to predict habitat in seasons excluded from training. We conclude that survey data source can greatly impact development and interpretation of thermal habitat models for marine fishes. We suggest that model development be based on data sources that sample the widest range of ocean temperature and physical habitat throughout multiple seasons when possible, and encourage thorough consideration of how data gaps may influence model uncertainty.

Central place foragers select ocean surface convergent features despite differing foraging strategies.

Discovering the predictors of foraging locations can be challenging, and is often the critical missing piece for interpreting the ecological significance of observed movement patterns of predators. This is especially true in dynamic coastal marine systems, where planktonic food resources are diffuse and must be either physically or biologically concentrated to support upper trophic levels. In the Western Antarctic Peninsula, recent climate change has created new foraging sympatry between Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae) and gentoo (P. papua) penguins in a known biological hotspot near Palmer Deep canyon. We used this recent sympatry as an opportunity to investigate how dynamic local oceanographic features affect aspects of the foraging ecology of these two species. Simulated particle trajectories from measured surface currents were used to investigate the co-occurrence of convergent ocean features and penguin foraging locations. Adélie penguin diving activity was restricted to the upper mixed layer, while gentoo penguins often foraged much deeper than the mixed layer, suggesting that Adélie penguins may be more responsive to dynamic surface convergent features compared to gentoo penguins. We found that, despite large differences in diving and foraging behavior, both shallow-diving Adélie and deeper-diving gentoo penguins strongly selected for surface convergent features. Furthermore, there was no difference in selectivity for shallow- versus deep-diving gentoo penguins. Our results suggest that these two mesopredators are selecting surface convergent features, however, how these surface signals are related to subsurface prey fields is unknown.

HF Radar Sea-echo from Shallow Water.

HF radar systems are widely and routinely used for the measurement of ocean surface currents and waves. Analysis methods presently in use are based on the assumption of infinite water depth, and may therefore be inadequate close to shore where the radar echo is strongest. In this paper, we treat the situation when the radar echo is returned from ocean waves that interact with the ocean floor. Simulations are described which demonstrate the effect of shallow water on radar sea-echo. These are used to investigate limits on the existing theory and to define water depths at which shallow-water effects become significant. The second-order spectral energy increases relative to the first-order as the water depth decreases, resulting in spectral saturation when the waveheight exceeds a limit defined by the radar transmit frequency. This effect is particularly marked for lower radar transmit frequencies. The saturation limit on waveheight is less for shallow water. Shallow water affects second-order spectra (which gives wave information) far more than first-order (which gives information on current velocities), the latter being significantly affected only for the lowest radar transmit frequencies for extremely shallow water. We describe analysis of radar echo from shallow water measured by a Rutgers University HF radar system to give ocean wave spectral estimates. Radar-derived wave height, period and direction are compared with simultaneous shallow-water in-situ measurements.

Rapid shelf-wide cooling response of a stratified coastal ocean to hurricanes.

Large uncertainty in the predicted intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) persists compared to the steadily improving skill in the predicted TC tracks. This intensity uncertainty has its most significant implications in the coastal zone, where TC impacts to populated shorelines are greatest. Recent studies have demonstrated that rapid ahead-of-eye-center cooling of a stratified coastal ocean can have a significant impact on hurricane intensity forecasts. Using observation-validated, high-resolution ocean modeling, the stratified coastal ocean cooling processes observed in two U.S. Mid-Atlantic hurricanes were investigated: Hurricane Irene (2011)-with an inshore Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) track during the late summer stratified coastal ocean season-and Tropical Storm Barry (2007)-with an offshore track during early summer. For both storms, the critical ahead-of-eye-center depth-averaged force balance across the entire MAB shelf included an onshore wind stress balanced by an offshore pressure gradient. This resulted in onshore surface currents opposing offshore bottom currents that enhanced surface to bottom current shear and turbulent mixing across the thermocline, resulting in the rapid cooling of the surface layer ahead-of-eye-center. Because the same baroclinic and mixing processes occurred for two storms on opposite ends of the track and seasonal stratification envelope, the response appears robust. It will be critical to forecast these processes and their implications for a wide range of future storms using realistic 3-D coupled atmosphere-ocean models to lower the uncertainty in predictions of TC intensities and impacts and enable coastal populations to better respond to increasing rapid intensification threats in an era of rising sea levels.

Adélie penguin foraging location predicted by tidal regime switching.

Penguin foraging and breeding success depend on broad-scale environmental and local-scale hydrographic features of their habitat. We investigated the effect of local tidal currents on a population of Adélie penguins on Humble Is., Antarctica. We used satellite-tagged penguins, an autonomous underwater vehicle, and historical tidal records to model of penguin foraging locations over ten seasons. The bearing of tidal currents did not oscillate daily, but rather between diurnal and semidiurnal tidal regimes. Adélie penguins foraging locations changed in response to tidal regime switching, and not to daily tidal patterns. The hydrography and foraging patterns of Adélie penguins during these switching tidal regimes suggest that they are responding to changing prey availability, as they are concentrated and dispersed in nearby Palmer Deep by variable tidal forcing on weekly timescales, providing a link between local currents and the ecology of this predator.