Extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation versus standard treatment for refractory out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: a Bayesian meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The outcomes of several randomized trials on extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (ECPR) in patients with refractory out-of-hospital cardiac arrest were examined using frequentist methods, resulting in a dichotomous interpretation of results based on p-values rather than in the probability of clinically relevant treatment effects. To determine such a probability of a clinically relevant ECPR-based treatment effect on neurological outcomes, the authors of these trials performed a Bayesian meta-analysis of the totality of randomized ECPR evidence. METHODS: A systematic search was applied to three electronic databases. Randomized trials that compared ECPR-based treatment with conventional CPR for refractory out-of-hospital cardiac arrest were included. The study was preregistered in INPLASY (INPLASY2023120060). The primary Bayesian hierarchical meta-analysis estimated the difference in 6-month neurologically favorable survival in patients with all rhythms, and a secondary analysis assessed this difference in patients with shockable rhythms (Bayesian hierarchical random-effects model). Primary Bayesian analyses were performed under vague priors. Outcomes were formulated as estimated median relative risks, mean absolute risk differences, and numbers needed to treat with corresponding 95% credible intervals (CrIs). The posterior probabilities of various clinically relevant absolute risk difference thresholds were estimated. RESULTS: Three randomized trials were included in the analysis (ECPR, n = 209 patients; conventional CPR, n = 211 patients). The estimated median relative risk of ECPR for 6-month neurologically favorable survival was 1.47 (95%CrI 0.73-3.32) with a mean absolute risk difference of 8.7% (- 5.0; 42.7%) in patients with all rhythms, and the median relative risk was 1.54 (95%CrI 0.79-3.71) with a mean absolute risk difference of 10.8% (95%CrI - 4.2; 73.9%) in patients with shockable rhythms. The posterior probabilities of an absolute risk difference > 0% and > 5% were 91.0% and 71.1% in patients with all rhythms and 92.4% and 75.8% in patients with shockable rhythms, respectively. CONCLUSION: The current Bayesian meta-analysis found a 71.1% and 75.8% posterior probability of a clinically relevant ECPR-based treatment effect on 6-month neurologically favorable survival in patients with all rhythms and shockable rhythms. These results must be interpreted within the context of the reported credible intervals and varying designs of the randomized trials. REGISTRATION: INPLASY (INPLASY2023120060, December 14th, 2023, https://doi.org/10.37766/inplasy2023.12.0060 ).

Baseline reticular basement membrane morphology is related to subsequent spirometry deterioration in pediatric chronic airway inflammation: a follow-up study.

Reticular basement membrane (RBM) thickening may occur in children with allergic bronchial asthma (BA), cystic fibrosis (CF), and primary ciliary dyskinesia (PCD). Its functional consequences remain unknown. We investigated the relationship between baseline RBM thickness and subsequent spirometry. In our cohort follow-up study, patients aged 3-18 yr with BA, CF, and PCD and controls underwent baseline lung clearance index (LCI) measurement, spirometry, and endobronchial biopsy sampling. Total RBM and collagen IV-positive layer thickness were measured. Trends in forced vital capacity (FVC), forced expired volume in 1 s (FEV1), and FEV1/FVC were analyzed during follow-up, and their relationship to baseline characteristics was studied using univariate analysis and multiple regression models. Complete baseline data were available in 19 patients with BA, 30 patients with CF, 25 patients with PCD, and 19 controls. The RBM was thicker in patients with BA (6.33 ± 1.22 µm), CF (5.60 ± 1.39 µm), and PCD (6.50 ± 1.87 µm) than in controls (3.29 ± 0.55 µm) (all P < 0.001). The LCI was higher in patients with CF (15.32 ± 4.58, P < 0.001) and PCD (10.97 ± 2.46, P = 0.002) than in controls (7.44 ± 0.43). The median follow-up times were 3.6, 4.8, 5.7, and 1.9 years in patients with BA, CF, PCD, and controls, respectively. The z-scores of FEV1 and FEV1/FVC deteriorated significantly in all groups except in controls. In patients with CF and PCD, trends in FEV1 z-scores correlated with baseline LCI and RBM; in BA, it correlated with collagen IV. In multiple regression models, RBM morphology and ventilation inhomogeneity could predict up to 84.4% of variability in spirometry trends. In conclusion, baseline LCI value and RBM morphology may predict trends in subsequent spirometry.NEW & NOTEWORTHY This paper deals with the relationship between reticular basement membrane (RBM) morphology at baseline and follow-up spirometry in children with asthma, cystic fibrosis, and primary ciliary dyskinesia. For the first time, to our knowledge, the possibility to predict subsequent lung function development using selected baseline characteristics (reticular basement membrane morphology from endobronchial biopsy and ventilation inhomogeneity from nitrogen multiple breath washout test) is proposed. Corresponding predictive models are presented.

Extracorporeal versus conventional cardiopulmonary resuscitation for refractory out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: a secondary analysis of the Prague OHCA trial.

BACKGROUND: Survival rates in refractory out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) remain low with conventional advanced cardiac life support (ACLS). Extracorporeal life support (ECLS) implantation during ongoing resuscitation, a method called extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (ECPR), may increase survival. This study examined whether ECPR is associated with improved outcomes. METHODS: Prague OHCA trial enrolled adults with a witnessed refractory OHCA of presumed cardiac origin. In this secondary analysis, the effect of ECPR on 180-day survival using Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox proportional hazard model was examined. RESULTS: Among 256 patients (median age 58 years, 83% male) with median duration of resuscitation 52.5 min (36.5-68), 83 (32%) patients achieved prehospital ROSC during ongoing conventional ACLS prehospitally, 81 (32%) patients did not achieve prehospital ROSC with prolonged conventional ACLS, and 92 (36%) patients did not achieve prehospital ROSC and received ECPR. The overall 180-day survival was 51/83 (61.5%) in patients with prehospital ROSC, 1/81 (1.2%) in patients without prehospital ROSC treated with conventional ACLS and 22/92 (23.9%) in patients without prehospital ROSC treated with ECPR (log-rank p < 0.001). After adjustment for covariates (age, sex, initial rhythm, prehospital ROSC status, time of emergency medical service arrival, resuscitation time, place of cardiac arrest, percutaneous coronary intervention status), ECPR was associated with a lower risk of 180-day death (HR 0.21, 95% CI 0.14-0.31; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In this secondary analysis of the randomized refractory OHCA trial, ECPR was associated with improved 180-day survival in patients without prehospital ROSC. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01511666, Registered 19 January 2012.

Gender differences and survival after out of hospital cardiac arrest.

BACKGROUND: Published evidence regarding the effect of gender on outcome after out of hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is inconsistent. We aimed to investigate the association of gender to outcome and resuscitation characteristics in OHCA patients admitted to the cardiac arrest center. METHODS: In this retrospective analysis of prospective registry data, all patients admitted for OHCA were included. The influence of gender on 30-day survival and good neurological outcome (cerebral performance category of 1 or 2) were examined using Kaplan-Meier estimates and multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: In total, 932 patients were analysed (239 women, 26%). Women were older (64 vs 60 years, p < 0.001) and less commonly had a shockable rhythm (47% vs 65%, P < 0.001) compared to men. Women were less likely to have a cardiac cause of arrest (54% vs. 75%, p < 0.001), received less therapeutic hypothermia (74% vs 86%, p < 0.001) and coronary angiography (63% vs. 79%, p < 0.001). The overall 30-day survival was lower for women (45% vs. 53%, log-rank p = 0.005) as well as good neurological outcome (37% vs. 46%, p = 0.008). However, according to the multivariate logistic regression, gender was not associated with survival (OR 0.98, 95% CI 0.65-1.50, p = 0.94) nor with good neurological outcome (OR 0.91, 95% CI 0.59-1.40, p = 0.67). CONCLUSION: Women admitted for OHCA to a cardiac center had a different cause of arrest that had a different treatment and outcome compared to men. Survival and good neurological outcome were lower in women, however, after adjusting for baseline characteristics, gender was not associated with survival nor neurological outcome.

Effect of Intra-arrest Transport, Extracorporeal Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation, and Immediate Invasive Assessment and Treatment on Functional Neurologic Outcome in Refractory Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) has poor outcome. Whether intra-arrest transport, extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (ECPR), and immediate invasive assessment and treatment (invasive strategy) is beneficial in this setting remains uncertain. Objective: To determine whether an early invasive approach in adults with refractory OHCA improves neurologically favorable survival. Design, Setting, and Participants: Single-center, randomized clinical trial in Prague, Czech Republic, of adults with a witnessed OHCA of presumed cardiac origin without return of spontaneous circulation. A total of 256 participants, of a planned sample size of 285, were enrolled between March 2013 and October 2020. Patients were observed until death or day 180 (last patient follow-up ended on March 30, 2021). Interventions: In the invasive strategy group (n = 124), mechanical compression was initiated, followed by intra-arrest transport to a cardiac center for ECPR and immediate invasive assessment and treatment. Regular advanced cardiac life support was continued on-site in the standard strategy group (n = 132). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was survival with a good neurologic outcome (defined as Cerebral Performance Category [CPC] 1-2) at 180 days after randomization. Secondary outcomes included neurologic recovery at 30 days (defined as CPC 1-2 at any time within the first 30 days) and cardiac recovery at 30 days (defined as no need for pharmacological or mechanical cardiac support for at least 24 hours). Results: The trial was stopped at the recommendation of the data and safety monitoring board when prespecified criteria for futility were met. Among 256 patients (median age, 58 years; 44 [17%] women), 256 (100%) completed the trial. In the main analysis, 39 patients (31.5%) in the invasive strategy group and 29 (22.0%) in the standard strategy group survived to 180 days with good neurologic outcome (odds ratio [OR], 1.63 [95% CI, 0.93 to 2.85]; difference, 9.5% [95% CI, -1.3% to 20.1%]; P = .09). At 30 days, neurologic recovery had occurred in 38 patients (30.6%) in the invasive strategy group and in 24 (18.2%) in the standard strategy group (OR, 1.99 [95% CI, 1.11 to 3.57]; difference, 12.4% [95% CI, 1.9% to 22.7%]; P = .02), and cardiac recovery had occurred in 54 (43.5%) and 45 (34.1%) patients, respectively (OR, 1.49 [95% CI, 0.91 to 2.47]; difference, 9.4% [95% CI, -2.5% to 21%]; P = .12). Bleeding occurred more frequently in the invasive strategy vs standard strategy group (31% vs 15%, respectively). Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients with refractory out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, the bundle of early intra-arrest transport, ECPR, and invasive assessment and treatment did not significantly improve survival with neurologically favorable outcome at 180 days compared with standard resuscitation. However, the trial was possibly underpowered to detect a clinically relevant difference. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01511666.

Catchment Runoff in Industrial Areas Exports Legacy Pollutant Zinc from the Topsoil Rather than Geogenic Zn.

In highly industrialized, densely populated parts of Central Europe, mobilization of legacy Zn pollution from forest ecosystems may negatively affect the quality of water resources. To test this hypothesis, we determined the 66Zn/64Zn isotope ratios of 15 Zn reservoirs and fluxes in an acidified, spruce die-back affected mountain-slope catchment in northern Czech Republic. The δ66Zn values of precipitation, organic horizon, and runoff were statistically indistinguishable. In contrast, δ66Zn values of bedrock orthogneiss and mineral soil were significantly different from δ66Zn values of runoff. The magnitude of within-site Zn isotope fractionations appeared to be relatively small. Despite the large potential source of Zn in bedrock, runoff exported mostly young pollutant Zn that had been temporarily stored in the organic horizon. This conclusion was corroborated by comparing Zn input-output mass balances in the polluted northern catchment and in a relatively unpolluted catchment situated 250 km to the south. Seven-times higher Zn export via runoff at the northern site was controlled by a combination of 10-times higher atmospheric Zn input and five-times higher DOC leaching, compared to the southern site. In industrial areas, atmospherically deposited Zn is leached from headwater catchments in a direct analogy to leaching of highly toxic pollutant Pb.

Demographic and public health characteristics explain large part of variability in COVID-19 mortality across countries.

BACKGROUND: The numbers of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths per million people differ widely across countries. Often, the causal effects of interventions taken by authorities are unjustifiably concluded based on the comparison of pure mortalities in countries where interventions consisting different strategies have been taken. Moreover, the possible effects of other factors are only rarely considered. METHODS: We used data from open databases (European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, World Bank Open Data, The BCG World Atlas) and publications to develop a model that could largely explain the differences in cumulative mortality between countries using non-interventional (mostly socio-demographic) factors. RESULTS: Statistically significant associations with the logarithmic COVID-19 mortality were found with the following: proportion of people aged 80 years and above, population density, proportion of urban population, gross domestic product, number of hospital beds per population, average temperature in March and incidence of tuberculosis. The final model could explain 67% of the variability. This finding could also be interpreted as follows: less than a third of the variability in logarithmic mortality differences could be modified by diverse non-pharmaceutical interventions ranging from case isolation to comprehensive measures, constituting case isolation, social distancing of the entire population and closure of schools and borders. CONCLUSIONS: In particular countries, the number of people who will die from COVID-19 is largely given by factors that cannot be drastically changed as an immediate reaction to the pandemic and authorities should focus on modifiable variables, e.g. the number of hospital beds.

Evaluation of marginal gap of teeth restored with crowns using six different CAD/CAM materials milled with two different milling units.

AIM: The aim of the present study was to compare the marginal gap of teeth restored with crowns using six different CAD/CAM materials with two different milling units. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Ten mandibular molar teeth were collected after surgical extractions and prepared with two different diamond-coated instruments to receive full veneer crowns. The teeth were optically scanned, designed in CAD/CAM software, and milled in two different milling units. The marginal gap was measured using an optical microscope at 200x magnification. The restricted maximum likelihood (REML) method was used to estimate unknown parameters, and the statistical calculation was performed using R software. RESULTS: The model used to answer the primary study question involved a significant (P < 0.001) instrument versus material interaction. No other interaction was statistically significant (P = 0.146). Finally, significant within-crown heteroscedasticity was found (P < 0.001) for the two different diamond-coated instruments and was taken into account in the model used. CONCLUSIONS: The marginal gaps achieved by the crowns across all groups were within a clinically acceptable range.

What is the immunity of high school students to coronavirus?

Children and young people are at the least risk of coronavirus infection and the consequences of COVID-19. However, COVID-19 has dramatically affected their lives due to many months of school closures intended to prevent the spread of the infection. In the Czech Republic, secondary schools were closed from 14 October 2020 to 24 May 2021 with a short break before Christmas. However, the students were most often infected by their parents, who usually became infected at work. The aim of this study was to find out by means of antibody testing how many high school students in Havlíčkův Brod have undergone the infection. We used questionnaires to find out how many students were in quarantine. The group included 196 students aged 15-19. Examination of IgG antibodies against the S antigen (Abbott, Architect) was performed in June 2021. Antibodies were detected in 90 of 196 students (45.9%). Coronavirus infection was reported in 88 families. Antibodies were detected in 61 quarantined students (69.3%), while the remaining 27 students had neither antibodies, nor clinical signs, nor positive PCR test. Thus, these students are considered unsusceptible to the infection at the time of quarantine. Despite the interruption of teaching in schools and the associated reduction of contacts, a significant share of students met with the coronavirus. About half of the students in the sample are already largely resistant to the disease (have antibodies). Another part of the students was unsusceptible to the disease, because they did not fall sick despite having been in contact with an infected family member.

Retraction Statement: Comparison of nitrogen inputs and accumulation in 210 Pb-dated peat cores: Evidence for biological N2 -fixation in Central European peatlands despite decades of atmospheric N pollution.

"Comparison of nitrogen inputs and accumulation in 210 Pb-dated peat cores: Evidence for biological N2 -fixation in Central European peatlands despite decades of atmospheric N pollution" https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14505, by Martin Novak, Melanie A. Vile, Jan Curik, Bohuslava Cejkova, Jiri Barta, Marketa Stepanova, Ivana Jackova, Frantisek Buzek, Leona Bohdalkova, Eva Prechova, Frantisek Veselovsky, Marie Adamova, Ivana Valkova and Arnost Komarek. The above article, first published online in Wiley Online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com) in Global Change Biology, has been retracted by agreement between the authors, the journal Editor-in-Chief, Stephen P. Long, and John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Since publication of the above article, it was brought to the attention of the authors that the peat accretion rates violate reasonable ranges of peatland C/N/P stoichiometry, placing the quantitative conclusions of the article in serious error. The authors apologize for any inconvenience the publication of this work may have caused our readers. REFERENCE Novak, M., Vile, M. A., Cejkova, B., Barta, J., Stepanova, M., Jackova, I., Buzek, F., Bohdalkova, L., Prechova, E., Veselovsky, F., Adamova, M., Valkova, I., & Komarek, A. (2018). Comparison of nitrogen inputs and accumulation in 210 Pb-dated peat cores: Evidence for biological N2 -fixation in Central European peatlands despite decades of atmospheric N pollution. Global Change Biology.. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14505.

Personalized risk-based screening for diabetic retinopathy: A multivariate approach versus the use of stratification rules.

AIMS: To evaluate our proposed multivariate approach to identify patients who will develop sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy (STDR) within a 1-year screen interval, and explore the impact of simple stratification rules on prediction. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A 7-year dataset (2009-2016) from people with diabetes (PWD) was analysed using a novel multivariate longitudinal discriminant approach. Level of diabetic retinopathy, assessed from routine digital screening photographs of both eyes, was jointly modelled using clinical data collected over time. Simple stratification rules based on retinopathy level were also applied and compared with the multivariate discriminant approach. RESULTS: Data from 13 103 PWD (49 520 screening episodes) were analysed. The multivariate approach accurately predicted whether patients developed STDR or not within 1 year from the time of prediction in 84.0% of patients (95% confidence interval [CI] 80.4-89.7), compared with 56.7% (95% CI 55.5-58.0) and 79.7% (95% CI 78.8-80.6) achieved by the two stratification rules. While the stratification rules detected up to 95.2% (95% CI 92.2-97.6) of the STDR cases (sensitivity) only 55.6% (95% CI 54.5-56.7) of patients who did not develop STDR were correctly identified (specificity), compared with 85.4% (95% CI 80.4-89.7%) and 84.0% (95% CI 80.7-87.6%), respectively, achieved by the multivariate risk model. CONCLUSIONS: Accurate prediction of progression to STDR in PWD can be achieved using a multivariate risk model whilst also maintaining desirable specificity. While simple stratification rules can achieve good levels of sensitivity, the present study indicates that their lower specificity (high false-positive rate) would therefore necessitate a greater frequency of eye examinations.

Multilevel moderated mediation model with ordinal outcome.

Although increasingly complex models have been proposed in mediation literature, there is no model nor software that incorporates the multiple possible generalizations of the simple mediation model jointly. We propose a flexible moderated mediation model allowing for (1) a hierarchical structure of clustered data, (2) more and possibly correlated mediators, and (3) an ordinal outcome. The motivating data set is obtained from a European study in nursing research. Patients' willingness to recommend their treating hospital was recorded in an ordinal way. The research question is whether such recommendation directly depends on system-level features in the organization of nursing care, or whether these associations are mediated by 2 measurements of nursing care left undone and possibly moderated by nurse education. We have developed a Bayesian approach and accompanying program that takes all the above generalizations into account.

Bayesian estimation of multivariate normal mixtures with covariate-dependent mixing weights, with an application in antimicrobial resistance monitoring.

Bacteria with a reduced susceptibility against antimicrobials pose a major threat to public health. Therefore, large programs have been set up to collect minimum inhibition concentration (MIC) values. These values can be used to monitor the distribution of the nonsusceptible isolates in the general population. Data are collected within several countries and over a number of years. In addition, the sampled bacterial isolates were not tested for susceptibility against one antimicrobial, but rather against an entire range of substances. Interest is therefore in the analysis of the joint distribution of MIC data on two or more antimicrobials, while accounting for a possible effect of covariates. In this regard, we present a Bayesian semiparametric density estimation routine, based on multivariate Gaussian mixtures. The mixing weights are allowed to depend on certain covariates, thereby allowing the user to detect certain changes over, for example, time. The new approach was applied to data collected in Europe in 2010, 2012, and 2013. We investigated the susceptibility of Escherichia coli isolates against ampicillin and trimethoprim, where we found that there seems to be a significant increase in the proportion of nonsusceptible isolates. In addition, a simulation study was carried out, showing the promising behavior of the proposed method in the field of antimicrobial resistance.

Dynamic classification using credible intervals in longitudinal discriminant analysis.

Recently developed methods of longitudinal discriminant analysis allow for classification of subjects into prespecified prognostic groups using longitudinal history of both continuous and discrete biomarkers. The classification uses Bayesian estimates of the group membership probabilities for each prognostic group. These estimates are derived from a multivariate generalised linear mixed model of the biomarker's longitudinal evolution in each of the groups and can be updated each time new data is available for a patient, providing a dynamic (over time) allocation scheme. However, the precision of the estimated group probabilities differs for each patient and also over time. This precision can be assessed by looking at credible intervals for the group membership probabilities. In this paper, we propose a new allocation rule that incorporates credible intervals for use in context of a dynamic longitudinal discriminant analysis and show that this can decrease the number of false positives in a prognostic test, improving the positive predictive value. We also establish that by leaving some patients unclassified for a certain period, the classification accuracy of those patients who are classified can be improved, giving increased confidence to clinicians in their decision making. Finally, we show that determining a stopping rule dynamically can be more accurate than specifying a set time point at which to decide on a patient's status. We illustrate our methodology using data from patients with epilepsy and show how patients who fail to achieve adequate seizure control are more accurately identified using credible intervals compared to existing methods.

A flexible AFT model for misclassified clustered interval-censored data.

Motivated by a longitudinal oral health study, we propose a flexible modeling approach for clustered time-to-event data, when the response of interest can only be determined to lie in an interval obtained from a sequence of examination times (interval-censored data) and on top of that, the determination of the occurrence of the event is subject to misclassification. The clustered time-to-event data are modeled using an accelerated failure time model with random effects and by assuming a penalized Gaussian mixture model for the random effects terms to avoid restrictive distributional assumptions concerning the event times. A general misclassification model is discussed in detail, considering the possibility that different examiners were involved in the assessment of the occurrence of the events for a given subject across time. A Bayesian implementation of the proposed model is described in a detailed manner. We additionally provide empirical evidence showing that the model can be used to estimate the underlying time-to-event distribution and the misclassification parameters without any external information about the latter parameters. We also provide results of a simulation study to evaluate the effect of neglecting the presence of misclassification in the analysis of clustered time-to-event data.

Exploring the Impact of Childhood Abuse on HIV Social and Attitudinal Factors Among Adults With and Without this History in Sub-Saharan Africa: Findings from NIMH Project Accept (HPTN 043).

Using data from four sites in three African countries, this community randomized study examined the association between childhood sexual and/or physical abuse (CSA and/or CPA) and HIV disclosure, HIV-related stigma, stress, and social support among adults with and without a history of abuse. A history of abuse among men was associated with higher levels of adult-reported stress and HIV-related stigma, and with significantly lower rates of HIV test result disclosure to current partners. Women with a history of CSA and/or CPA had significantly higher perceived stigma, discrimination and stress. Although childhood abuse was significantly associated with adult stress and stigmatization, participants with histories of CSA and/or CPA also reported significantly higher perceived social support compared to people without such experiences. These findings may reflect support received in response to disclosure of CSA or CPA or emotional ambivalence in relationships that have been found to be associated with child abuse. We conclude that it is critical for HIV prevention interventions to advocate for the primary prevention of child abuse, for early identification of adolescents and adults who report experiencing childhood abuse, and to address stigma and stress-related attitudinal, behavioral and relationship difficulties experiences as an aftermath of early abuse that increase their risk of HIV.

Reported physical and sexual abuse in childhood and adult HIV risk behaviour in three African countries: findings from Project Accept (HPTN-043).

Childhood sexual and physical abuse have been linked to adolescent and adult risky sexual behaviors, including early sexual debut, an increased number of sexual partners, unprotected sex, alcohol and drug use during sex and sexual violence. This paper explores these relationships among both men and women who report histories of childhood abuse from representative samples of communities in three countries in southern and eastern Africa (South Africa, Zimbabwe and Tanzania). Data were collected as part of a 3-year randomized community trial to rapidly increase knowledge of HIV status and to promote community responses through mobilisation, mobile testing, provision of same-day HIV test results and post-test support for HIV. The results indicate that reported childhood sexual and physical abuse is high in all three settings, also among men, and shows strong relationships with a range of sexual risk behaviors, including age at first sex (OR -0.6 (CI: -0.9, -0.4, p < 0.003)-among men, OR -0.7 (CI: -0.9, -0.5, p < 0.001)-among women), alcohol (OR 1.43 (CI: 1.22, 1.68, p < 0.001)-men, OR 1.83 (CI: 1.50, 2.24, p < 0.001)-women) and drug use (OR 1.65 (CI: 1.38, 1.97, p < 0.001)-men, OR 3.14 (CI: 1.95, 5.05, p < 0.001)-women) and two forms of partner violence-recent forced sex (OR 2.22 (CI: 1.66, 2.95, p < 0.001)-men, OR 2.76 (CI: 2.09, 3.64, p < 0.001)-women) and ever being hurt by a partner (OR 3.88 (CI: 2.84, 5.29, p < 0.001)-men, OR 3.06 (CI: 2.48, 3.76, p < 0.001)-women). Individuals abused in childhood comprise between 6 and 29 % of young adult men and women living in these African settings and constitute a population at high risk of HIV infection.

Sizeable net export of base cations from a Carpathian flysch catchment indicates their geogenic origin while the 26Mg/24Mg, 44Ca/40Ca and 87Sr/86Sr isotope ratios in runoff are indistinguishable from atmospheric input.

Nutrient imbalances may negatively affect the health status of forests exposed to multiple stress factors, including drought and bark beetle calamities. We studied the origin of base cations in runoff from a small Carpathian catchment underlain by base-poor flysch turbidites using magnesium (Mg), calcium (Ca) and strontium (Sr) isotope composition of 10 ecosystem compartments. Our objective was to constrain conclusions drawn from long-term hydrochemical monitoring of inputs and outputs. Annual export of Mg, Ca and Sr exceeds 5-to-15 times their atmospheric input. Mass budgets per se thus indicate sizeable net leaching of Mg, Ca and Sr from bedrock sandstones and claystones. Surprisingly, δ26Mg, δ44Ca and 87Sr/86Sr isotope ratios of runoff were practically identical to those of atmospheric deposition and soil water but significantly different from bedrock isotope ratios. We did not find any carbonates in the studied area as a hypothetical, easily dissolvable source of base cations whose isotope composition might corroborate the predominance of geogenic base cations in the runoff. Marine carbonates typically have lower δ26 Mg and 87Sr/86Sr ratios, and silicate sediments often have higher δ26Mg and 87Sr/86Sr ratios than runoff at the study site. Mixing of these two sources, if confirmed, could reconcile the flux and isotope data.

Predicting hemoglobin levels in whole blood donors using transition models and mixed effects models.

BACKGROUND: To optimize the planning of blood donations but also to continue motivating the volunteers it is important to streamline the practical organization of the timing of donations. While donors are asked to return for donation after a suitable period, still a relevant proportion of blood donors is deferred from donation each year due to a too low hemoglobin level. Rejection of donation may demotivate the candidate donor and implies an inefficient planning of the donation process. Hence, it is important to predict the future hemoglobin level to improve the planning of donors' visits to the blood bank. METHODS: The development of the hemoglobin prediction rule is based on longitudinal (panel) data from blood donations collected by Sanquin (the only blood product collecting and supplying organization in the Netherlands). We explored and contrasted two popular statistical models, i.e. the transition (autoregressive) model and the mixed effects model as plausible models to account for the dependence among subsequent hemoglobin levels within a donor. RESULTS: The predictors of the future hemoglobin level are age, season, hemoglobin levels at the previous visits, and a binary variable indicating whether a donation was made at the previous visit. Based on cross-validation, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCs) for male donors are 0.83 and 0.81 for the transition model and the mixed effects model, respectively; for female donors we obtained AUC values of 0.73 and 0.72 for the transition model and the mixed effects model, respectively. CONCLUSION: We showed that the transition models and the mixed effects models provide a much better prediction compared to a multiple linear regression model. In general, the transition model provides a somewhat better prediction than the mixed effects model, especially at high visit numbers. In addition, the transition model offers a better trade-off between sensitivity and specificity when varying the cut-off values for eligibility in predicted values. Hence transition models make the prediction of hemoglobin level more precise and may lead to less deferral from donation in the future.