Timeline of Development of Pancreatic Cancer and Implications for Successful Early Detection in High-Risk Individuals.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: To successfully implement imaging-based pancreatic cancer (PC) surveillance, understanding the timeline and morphologic features of neoplastic progression is key. We aimed to investigate the progression to neoplasia from serial prediagnostic pancreatic imaging tests in high-risk individuals and identify factors associated with successful early detection. METHODS: We retrospectively examined the development of pancreatic abnormalities in high-risk individuals who were diagnosed with PC or underwent pancreatic surgery, or both, in 16 international surveillance programs. RESULTS: Of 2552 high-risk individuals under surveillance, 28 (1%) developed neoplastic progression to PC or high-grade dysplasia during a median follow-up of 29 months after baseline (interquartile range [IQR], 40 months). Of these, 13 of 28 (46%) presented with a new lesion (median size, 15 mm; range 7-57 mm), a median of 11 months (IQR, 8; range 3-17 months) after a prior examination, by which time 10 of 13 (77%) had progressed beyond the pancreas. The remaining 15 of 28 (54%) had neoplastic progression in a previously detected lesion (12 originally cystic, 2 indeterminate, 1 solid), and 11 (73%) had PC progressed beyond the pancreas. The 12 patients with cysts had been monitored for 21 months (IQR, 15 months) and had a median growth of 5 mm/y (IQR, 8 mm/y). Successful early detection (as high-grade dysplasia or PC confined to the pancreas) was associated with resection of cystic lesions (vs solid or indeterminate lesions (odds ratio, 5.388; 95% confidence interval, 1.525-19.029) and small lesions (odds ratio, 0.890/mm; 95% confidence interval 0.812-0.976/mm). CONCLUSIONS: In nearly half of high-risk individuals developing high-grade dysplasia or PC, no prior lesions are detected by imaging, yet they present at an advanced stage. Progression can occur before the next scheduled annual examination. More sensitive diagnostic tools or a different management strategy for rapidly growing cysts are needed.

Long-term yield of pancreatic cancer surveillance in high-risk individuals.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to determine the long-term yield of pancreatic cancer surveillance in hereditary predisposed high-risk individuals. DESIGN: From 2006 to 2019, we prospectively enrolled asymptomatic individuals with an estimated 10% or greater lifetime risk of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) after obligatory evaluation by a clinical geneticist and genetic testing, and subjected them to annual surveillance with both endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS) and MRI/cholangiopancreatography (MRI/MRCP) at each visit. RESULTS: 366 individuals (201 mutation-negative familial pancreatic cancer (FPC) kindreds and 165 PDAC susceptibility gene mutation carriers; mean age 54 years, SD 9.9) were followed for 63 months on average (SD 43.2). Ten individuals developed PDAC, of which four presented with a symptomatic interval carcinoma and six underwent resection. The cumulative PDAC incidence was 9.3% in the mutation carriers and 0% in the FPC kindreds (p<0.001). Median PDAC survival was 18 months (range 1-32). Surgery was performed in 17 individuals (4.6%), whose pathology revealed 6 PDACs (3 T1N0M0), 7 low-grade precursor lesions, 2 neuroendocrine tumours <2 cm, 1 autoimmune pancreatitis and in 1 individual no abnormality. There was no surgery-related mortality. EUS detected more solid lesions than MRI/MRCP (100% vs 22%, p<0.001), but less cystic lesions (42% vs 83%, p<0.001). CONCLUSION: The diagnostic yield of PDAC was substantial in established high-risk mutation carriers, but non-existent in the mutation-negative proven FPC kindreds. Nevertheless, timely identification of resectable lesions proved challenging despite the concurrent use of two imaging modalities, with EUS outperforming MRI/MRCP. Overall, surveillance by imaging yields suboptimal results with a clear need for more sensitive diagnostic markers, including biomarkers.

Identifying key factors for the effectiveness of pancreatic cancer screening: A model-based analysis.

Pancreatic cancer (PC) survival is poor, as detection usually occurs late, when treatment options are limited. Screening of high-risk individuals may enable early detection and a more favorable prognosis. Knowledge gaps prohibit establishing the effectiveness of screening. We developed a Microsimulation Screening Analysis model to analyze the impact of relevant uncertainties on the effect of PC screening in high-risk individuals. The model simulates two base cases: one in which lesions always progress to PC and one in which indolent and faster progressive lesions coexist. For each base case, the effect of annual and 5-yearly screening with endoscopic ultrasonography/magnetic resonance imaging was evaluated. The impact of variance in PC risk, screening test characteristics and surgery-related mortality was evaluated using sensitivity analyses. Screening resulted in a reduction of PC mortality by at least 16% in all simulated scenarios. This reduction depended strongly on the natural disease course (annual screening: -57% for "Progressive-only" vs -41% for "Indolent Included"). The number of screen and surveillance tests needed to prevent one cancer death was impacted most by PC risk. A 10% increase in test sensitivity reduced mortality by 1.9% at most. Test specificity is important for the number of surveillance tests. In conclusion, screening reduces PC mortality in all modeled scenarios. The natural disease course and PC risk strongly determines the effectiveness of screening. Test sensitivity seems of lesser influence than specificity. Future research should gain more insight in PC pathobiology to establish the true value of PC screening in high-risk individuals.

Repeated participation in pancreatic cancer surveillance by high-risk individuals imposes low psychological burden.

BACKGROUND: When assessing the feasibility of surveillance for pancreatic cancer (PC), it is important to address its psychological burden. The aim of this ongoing study is to evaluate the psychological burden of annual pancreatic surveillance for individuals at high risk to develop PC. METHODS: This is a multicenter prospective study. High-risk individuals who undergo annual pancreatic surveillance with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) were invited to complete questionnaires to assess motivations for participating in surveillance, experiences with participation, perceived PC risk, topics of concern, and psychological distress. Questionnaires were sent after intake for participation (T1), after the first MRI and EUS (T2), and after the MRI and EUS 1 (T3), 2 (T4), and 3 years (T5) after first surveillance. RESULTS: In total, 140 out of 152 individuals returned one or more of the questionnaires (response 92%); 477 questionnaires were analyzed. The most frequently reported motivation for participating in surveillance was the possible early detection of (a precursor stage of) cancer (95-100%). Only a minority of respondents experienced MRI and EUS as uncomfortable (10% and 11%, respectively), and respondents dreaded their next EUS investigation less as surveillance progressed. Respondents' cancer worries decreased significantly over time, and both their anxiety and depression scores remained stable and low over the 3-year period of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: The psychological burden of pancreatic surveillance is low at all assessments. Therefore, from a psychological point of view, participation of high-risk individuals in an annual pancreatic surveillance program is feasible.Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Patient-reported burden of intensified surveillance and surgery in high-risk individuals under pancreatic cancer surveillance.

In high-risk individuals participating in a pancreatic cancer surveillance program, worrisome features warrant for intensified surveillance or, occasionally, surgery. Our objectives were to determine the patient-reported burden of intensified surveillance and/or surgery, and to assess post-operative quality of life and opinion of surgery. Participants in our pancreatic cancer surveillance program completed questionnaires including the Cancer Worry Scale (CWS) and the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS). For individuals who underwent intensified surveillance, questionnaires before, during, and ≥ 3 weeks after were analyzed. In addition, subjects who underwent intensified surveillance in the past 3 years or underwent surgery at any time, were invited for an interview, that included the Short-Form 12 (SF-12). A total of 31 high-risk individuals were studied. During the intensified surveillance period, median CWS scores were higher (14, IQR 7), as compared to before (12, IQR 9, P = 0.007) and after (11, IQR 7, P = 0.014), but eventually returned back to baseline (P = 0.823). Median HADS scores were low: 5 (IQR 6) for anxiety and 3 (IQR 5) for depression, and they were unaffected by the intensified surveillance period. Of the 10 operated patients, 1 (10%) developed diabetes and 7 (70%) pancreatic exocrine insufficiency. The interviews yielded median quality-of-life scores comparable to the general population. Also, after surgery, patients' attitudes towards surveillance were unchanged (5/10, 50%) or became more positive (4/10, 40%). Although patients were aware of the (sometimes benign) pathological outcome, when asked if surgery had been justified, only 20% (2/10) disagreed, and all would again have chosen to undergo surgery. In conclusion, in individuals at high risk for pancreatic cancer, intensified surveillance temporarily increased cancer worries, without affecting general anxiety or depression. Although pancreatic surgery led to substantial co-morbidity, quality of life was similar to the general population, and surgery did not negatively affect the attitude towards surveillance.

Evolution of features of chronic pancreatitis during endoscopic ultrasound-based surveillance of individuals at high risk for pancreatic cancer.

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS: During endoscopic ultrasound (EUS)-based pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC)-surveillance in asymptomatic individuals, features of chronic pancreatitis (CP) are often detected. Little is known about the prevalence and progression of these features. The aim of this study was to quantify these features, assess the interobserver agreement, assess possible associated factors, and assess the natural course during 3 years of follow-up. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Two experienced endosonographers reviewed anonymized sequential EUS videos of participants in PDAC surveillance that were obtained in 2012 and 2015 for features of CP. Descriptives, agreement analyses, univariate and multivariate analyses for possible risk factors, and repeated measures analyses to assess intra-individual changes over time were performed. RESULTS: A total of 42 EUS videos of 21 participants were reviewed. Any feature of CP was present in 86 % (2012) and 81 % (2015) of participants, with a mean of 2.5 features per individual. The overall interobserver agreement was almost perfect at 83 %. No baseline factors were significantly associated with features of CP. Features did not change over time, except for hyperechoic foci without shadowing, which decreased intra-individually (ß = - 1.6, P  = 0.005). CONCLUSIONS: This blinded study shows features of CP to be highly prevalent in individuals at high risk of developing pancreatic cancer. No baseline factors were associated with presence of these features. CP features did not increase intra-individually over a 3-year period. Longer follow-up and pathological examination of pancreatic resection specimens will be essential to learn whether EUS detection and follow-up of these CP features bear clinical relevance.

Prevalence and Progression of Pancreatic Cystic Precursor Lesions Differ Between Groups at High Risk of Developing Pancreatic Cancer.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to compare the prevalence of cystic pancreatic lesions and their natural behavior in 2 distinct high-risk groups for developing pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC): (1) carriers of a mutation that predisposes to PDAC and (2) individuals without a known gene mutation but with a family history of PDAC (familial pancreatic cancer [FPC]). METHODS: Pancreatic surveillance by annual magnetic resonance imaging and endoscopic ultrasound was performed in individuals with an estimated lifetime risk of developing PDAC of 10% or greater. Progression of a lesion was defined as growth 4 mm or greater or the development of worrisome features. RESULTS: We included 186 individuals: 98 mutation carriers and 88 FPC individuals (mean follow-up, 51 months). Individuals with FPC were significantly more likely than mutation carriers to have a pancreatic cyst 10 mm or greater (16% vs 5%, P = 0.045). Pancreatic cysts detected in mutation carriers, however, were significantly more likely to progress than those in FPC individuals (16% vs 2%, P = 0.050). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence that the prevalence and growth characteristics of pancreatic cysts differ between distinct high-risk groups: individuals with FPC have a higher prevalence of pancreatic cysts 10 mm or greater, whereas cysts in mutation carriers are more likely to progress. These observations may help to develop more optimally tailored surveillance strategies in specific high-risk populations.

Factors associated with cancer worries in individuals participating in annual pancreatic cancer surveillance.

It is important to adequately and timely identify individuals with cancer worries amongst participants in a pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) surveillance program, because they could benefit from psychosocial support to decrease distress. Therefore, the aim of this study was to assess both psychosocial and clinical factors associated with cancer worries. High-risk individuals participating in PDAC-surveillance were invited to annually complete a cancer worry scale (CWS) questionnaire which was sent after counseling by the clinical geneticist (T0), after intake for participation in PDAC-surveillance (T1), and then annually after every MRI and endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS) (T2 and further). Analyses were performed to identify factors associated with cancer worries in the second year of surveillance (T3). We found a significant intra-individual decrease in cancer worries (ß = -0.84, P < 0.001), nevertheless, 33 % of individuals had a CWS-score ≥14 at T3. We found one factor significantly associated with cancer worries at T3: having a family member affected by PDAC <50 years of age (ß = 0.22, P = 0.03). The detection of a cystic lesion, a shortened surveillance interval, or undergoing pancreatic surgery did not lead to more cancer worries (P = 0.163, P = 0.33, and P = 0.53, respectively). In conclusion, this study identified 'a family history of PDAC <50 years of age' as the only predictor of cancer worries experienced after 2 years of surveillance in individuals at high risk of developing PDAC. This knowledge could help clinicians to timely identify individuals 'at risk' for high levels of cancer worries who would likely benefit from psychosocial support.

Pancreatic cancer-associated gene polymorphisms in a nation-wide cohort of p16-Leiden germline mutation carriers; a case-control study.

BACKGROUND: The p16-Leiden founder mutation in the CDKN2A gene is the most common cause of Familial Atypical Multiple Mole Melanoma (FAMMM) syndrome in the Netherlands. Individuals with this mutation are at increased risk for developing melanoma of the skin, as well as pancreatic cancer. However, there is a notable interfamilial variability in the occurrence of pancreatic cancer among p16-Leiden families. We aimed to test whether previously identified genetic risk factors for pancreatic cancer modify the risk for pancreatic cancer in p16-Leiden germline mutation carriers. METHODS: Seven pancreatic cancer-associated SNPs were selected from the literature and were genotyped in a cohort of 185 p16-Leiden germline mutation carriers from 88 families, including 50 cases (median age 55 years) with pancreatic cancer and 135 controls (median age 64 years) without pancreatic cancer. Allelic odds ratios per SNP were calculated. RESULTS: No significant association with pancreatic cancer was found for any of the seven SNPs. CONCLUSIONS: Since genetic modifiers for developing melanoma have already been identified in CDKN2A mutation carriers, this study does not exclude that genetic modifiers do not play a role in the individual pancreatic cancer risk in this cohort of p16-Leiden germline mutation carriers. The search for these modifiers should therefore continue, because they can potentially facilitate more targeted pancreatic surveillance programs.