Smallpox vaccination reactions, prophylaxis, and therapy of complications.

Smallpox vaccination in the United States is a routine public health measure which has been under intensive review during the last decade. The most frequently occurring adverse reactions to vaccination are benign and require little or no systemic therapy. These reactions include accidental infection, erythematous and urticarial rash, and generalized vaccinia. Chickenpox occurring concurrently with vaccination presents no problem unless vaccinia has widely superinfected the chickenpox lesions. There is no risk to the pregnant woman who is vaccinated, but there is a slight risk that the fetus will develop fetal vaccinia. The vaccinia does not cause congenital malformations. Vaccinia hyperimmune globulin (VIG) in prophylactic dosage may be given to a pregnant woman who is traveling to a smallpox infected or endemic area in order to prevent fetal vaccinia. Vaccinia necrosum and eczema vaccinatum require vigorous systemic therapy with VIG, and often thiosemicarbazone. Post-vaccinial encephalitis, while frequently serious, has not been shown to be ameliorated by VIG therapy, although there are data which suggest VIG has some value in prophylaxis for encephalitis. Prophylaxis, prompt recognition, and proper therapy may reduce the fatality rates of these complications. Revaccination of patients who have suffered a complication is a frequent clinical problem. Revaccination of an individual who has had post-vaccinial encephalitis or vaccinia necrosum is contraindicated unless the risk of contracting smallpox outweighs the risk of the above two diseases. Revaccination of children who have had eczema vaccinatum is not contraindicated. Revaccination of children with a history of accidental infection or erythematous or urticarial rash presents no known or theoretically increased risk.

Treatment of chloroquine-resistant malaria in African children: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

Because chloroquine (Cq)-resistant Plasmodium falciparum (CRPF) has now spread throughout most of Africa, the efficacy and practicability of other drugs such as amodiaquine (Aq), and pyrimethamine-sulfadoxine (PS), for the treatment of fever needs to be assessed. We used a decision-analysis model to compare the cost and effectiveness of Cq, Aq, and PS. The variables considered were the probability of P. falciparum infection, drug compliance, minor and lethal side effects of the drug, the level of drug resistance in the community, and case-fatality rates associated with treatment. The measures of effectiveness were the number of malaria-related fever episodes cured parasitologically with each treatment and the number of malaria deaths prevented in children 6-59 months old. Cost-effectiveness comparisons were made for cases cured and deaths prevented. For treating 100,000 febrile episodes, Cq, PS, and Aq cost US$1812, US$2622, and US$3044, respectively. Cost of the drug, compliance, and the level of CRPF had the greatest effect on the cost-effectiveness ratio. The prevalence of high-level drug resistance (RIII) was the most important determinant of the cost-effectiveness. In a scenario with high-level CRPF, treatment with Cq costs US$0.47 to cure one patient and US$2.29 to prevent one death compared with US$0.05 and US$1.52 for treatment with PS. When the prevalence of RIII-level CRPF is greater than 14-31% (depending on the level of compliance), the most cost-effective treatment is PS, despite its 45% greater cost. Decision analysis models will be useful for malaria control planners as strategies are reconsidered in the 1990s.

High-density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration and other serum lipids in an isolated island community free of coronary heart disease.

Fasting serum high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, other lipid concentrations and related characteristics have been measured in 87% of 261 residents aged over 5 years on the small isolated island of Salt Cay, Turks and Caicos Isles. Only one subject, a hypertensive woman, had a major electrocardiographic Q wave abnormality, and none of the islanders had clinical coronary heart disease. These findings, together with local clinical experience indicated a low incidence of coronary heart disease in this community. Adult mean concentrations of HDL cholesterol (1.6 mmol/l) and serum total triglyceride (0.81 mmol/l) were relatively high and low respectively compared with those of men and women in North American communities. Unlike findings in North America, there was no significant sex difference in HDL cholesterol concentration apparent in adulthood and this was not explained by sex differences in alcohol consumption (positively correlated with HDL cholesterol in both sexes) or adiposity (negatively correlated with HDL cholesterol in men only). Residents who were recovering from an epidemic of mild upper respiratory infection had on average a 9% reduction in HDL cholesterol concentration compared with the remainder of the community. The lipoprotein lipid pattern in these people is consistent with a low cardiovascular risk status, and might account for the apparent absence of coronary heart disease on the island.

Lead Absorption in a community of potters in Barbados.

In a community of potters in Barbados where lead glazes traditionally have been used, a survey of 12 potters, 19 of their family members, and 24 controls revealed elevated blood lead levels in the potters, their family members, and the neighbours who used pottery for culinary purposes. Dust from the potters' homes and work areas contained lead in concentrations up to 320,000 ppm. Pottery was found to have lead release levels up to 3,125 microgram/ml. Six people had upper extremity tremor associated with elevated blood lead levels. This survey demonstrates the risk of using lead glazes in pottery production to family members of potters as well as the potters themselves and emphasizes the need for surveillance of occupational hazards in developing countries.

Prenatal care for low-income women enrolled in a managed-care organization.

OBJECTIVE: To determine barriers to prenatal care among managed-care enrollees who receive Medicaid. METHODS: In-person interviews were conducted with women 13-45 years old who were members of the Prudential HealthCare Community Plan in Memphis, Tennessee. Interview data were linked to medical chart reviews for 200 women who were currently pregnant or had delivered a baby since enrollment in Prudential. Factors related to untimely entry to prenatal care and inadequate prenatal visits were examined. RESULTS: More than half of the respondents had either untimely entry to or inadequate prenatal care. Overall, 89% of respondents had favorable attitudes about prenatal care. Several system and personal factors were associated with receipt of early or adequate prenatal care. Multivariate analysis showed that one system and two personal factors remained significantly related to entry to prenatal care. Women who entered Prudential during pregnancy were 2.4 times more likely (95% CI 1.1, 5.0) to receive late care than women who enrolled before pregnancy. Women who felt too tired to go for care were 2.2 times more likely (95% CI 1.0, 4.9) to receive late care. Women who experienced physical violence during pregnancy were 3.5 times more likely (95% CI 1.0, 12.0) to receive late care. Multivariate analysis with adequacy of prenatal care as the outcome showed several personal factors that increased odds of receiving inadequate prenatal care; however, only help from the infant's father was significantly related to adequacy of prenatal care. Women who did not have much help from the infant's father were 1.9 times more likely not to have adequate care (95% CI 1.0, 3.6). CONCLUSION: Even when affordable care was available, many low-income women did not avail themselves of it. Although women knew the importance of prenatal care, there was a gap between attitudes and actually seeking appropriate care. System and personal factors need to be addressed to overcome barriers to prenatal care.

Relative risks and benefits of long-term estrogen replacement therapy: a decision analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the relative risks and benefits of exogenous estrogen use among women entering the climacteric and to consider estrogen use for relief of symptoms or prevention of disease. METHODS: Decision analysis was used to assess the value of estrogen replacement therapy in a hypothetical cohort of 10,000 women assumed to be age 50 years; health outcomes were extrapolated to age 75. Risk ratios for mortality and morbidity of health outcomes associated with the use of estrogen replacement therapy were based on longitudinal studies reported in the literature. RESULTS: Estrogen use for 25 years would decrease fatal coronary heart disease events by 48% (567 cases), decrease deaths from hip fracture by 49% (75), increase deaths from breast cancer by 21% (39), and increase deaths from endometrial cancer by 207% (29 excess deaths). On balance, 25 years of estrogen replacement therapy in a cohort of 10,000 women would prevent 574 deaths. Further, women using estrogens for 25 years would gain 3951 quality-adjusted life years compared with women not using estrogens. Sensitivity analysis suggests that the benefits of estrogen replacement therapy outweight the risks under most assumptions. CONCLUSION: In a hypothetical, population-based analysis, the health benefits of postmenopausal estrogen replacement exceed the health risks incurred. Nevertheless, clinicians must still evaluate each individual's risks and needs.

Smallpox vaccination revisited. Some observations on the biology of vaccinia.

Sixty-two volunteers were studied to determine their local cutaneous, serologic, and virologic reactions to smallpox revaccination. Of 55 subjects available for examination, 45 (82%) had major cutaneous reactions. Subjects over 30 years old were more likely to have a major reaction. An increase in complement-fixing antibody titer was found in 74% of revaccinees with a major reaction. An increase in complement-fixing antibody titer was found in 74% of revaccinees with a major cutaneous reaction and is felt to be the best serologic indicator revaccination did not yield vaccinia virus. Cultures of the vaccination site demonstrated the virus to be present for a mean of 7.8 days (range 0--18 days) which coincided with separation correlate with antibody response. However, subjects vaccinated more than 3 years previously and subjects with major skin reactions shed vaccinia virus for longer periods than those vaccinated less than 3 years previously or who had equivocal reactions.

Histoplasmosis in Belize, Central America.

After two small outbreaks of histoplasmosis in Belize, an epidemiologic survey was carried out. Forty percent of 141 persons in two groups tested demonstrated a positive histoplasmin reaction. In one study group there was a significant association between visiting caves and histoplasmin positivity. Histoplasma capsulatum was not isolated in 20 soil specimens collected from outbreak-associated caves, but was isolated from 1 of 26 bats collected from the same caves. The presence of histoplasmosis in Belize, C.A. is documented, and this disease should be considered in differential diagnosis in patients, both residents and visitors in Belize, with compatible clinical presentations.

Community participation in malaria surveillance and treatment. III. An evaluation of modifications in the Volunteer Collaborator Network of Guatemala.

In most rural areas of Latin America, malaria surveillance and treatment is carried out by a network of unpaid village malaria workers, known as Volunteer Collaborators, who are trained and supervised by the National Malaria Service. To identify ways in which the performance of these volunteer workers could be improved and to test changes that would make the Volunteer Collaborator Networks (VCNs) a more attractive model for community participation in malaria case detection and treatment in other regions, we tested a series of modifications in the VCN of Guatemala. These modifications included improved methods for selecting, supervising, and evaluating the volunteer workers and for collecting blood smears and reporting results, and the use of volunteer workers, known as Volunteer Medicators, who administered presumptive antimalarial therapy without taking a blood smear. A cost-effectiveness analysis of the modified VCN was also carried out. Two years after the modifications were introduced, Volunteer Collaborators identified nearly twice as high a percentage (33% versus 17%) of patients with suspected malaria in their villages. Delays in examining blood smears were reduced from 23 days to 11 days and delays from blood smear examination to curative treatment were reduced from 21 days to 7 days. The Volunteer Medicators identified and treated only a slightly higher percentage of patients than the Volunteer Collaborators (36% versus 33%). However, the cost of maintaining a network of Volunteer Medicators ($0.61 per patient treated) was much lower than the traditional VCN ($2.45) or the modified VCN ($1.85). Thus, with a few, simple and relatively inexpensive modifications, the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of Volunteer Collaborators can be markedly improved. Additionally, the VCN can be modified to make it a more suitable model for community-based malaria control and surveillance networks in other malarious areas of the world, which differ in terms of their level of endemicity, the goals of the malaria program, or the available health care infrastructure.

Surveying managed care members on chronic disease.

We compare prevalence estimates of self-perceived health status and chronic disease risk factors from a managed care member survey with estimates from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) survey. Unadjusted prevalence estimates for diabetes, high blood pressure, and current smoking status were similar in the two surveys. In contrast, 5.1 percent of respondents to the managed care member survey reported fair-to-poor health status, compared with 12.4 percent of respondents to the BRFSS survey. Standardization of demographic characteristics reduced the prevalence of reported fair-to-poor health status among BRFSS respondents to 9 percent. We conclude that standardized survey questions added to annual member surveys in managed care organizations are a feasible and potentially useful method of chronic disease surveillance.

Maternity experiences in a managed care organization.

We conducted a telephone survey of female managed care enrollees who recently had a normal vaginal delivery to examine the relationship between hospital length-of-stay and maternal characteristics, pregnancy factors, length-of-stay preferences, and postdischarge experiences. Results indicated that length-of-stay varied by maternal characteristics and pregnancy factors. Length-of-stay and maternal or newborn readmissions were not statistically associated. Most respondents reported that they would be willing to go home within twenty-four hours after future deliveries if additional services were provided. Emphasis should be placed on which services can be provided to prepare and assist mothers through the perinatal period.

The influence of changing demographic patterns on our health promotion priorities.

As we approach the twenty-first century, we face many difficult challenges in planning public health programs to promote health and prevent disease. We focus here on the changing age distribution of the American population and the resulting need to develop and enact effective health promotion efforts for older Americans. Older adults suffer from an increased burden of many chronic diseases, but contrary to past assumptions, they benefit substantially from health promotion and disease prevention efforts. Although numerous health promotion activities can be targeted to aging populations, we pay particular attention to the beneficial role of physical activity promotion, tobacco use cessation, and good nutrition for older adults. In this article, we describe some of the implications of this demographic change in terms of the health care services and needs of older adults, and we suggest priorities for future public health promotion and disease prevention programs.

Evaluation of three methods for improving mammography rates in a managed care plan.

INTRODUCTION: Mammography has been shown to reduce breast cancer mortality among women 50 and older. Although mammography rates are increasing nationally, this effective screening tool remains underused. This study was conducted among 395 women who were members of a network model health maintenance organization (HMO) in Philadelphia in order to determine which of three methods was most effective in increasing mammography rates: (1) a birthday card reminder only (the standard method); (2) a personalized letter from the medical director and materials promoting mammography; and (3) a multicomponent phone call incorporating a reminder, counseling, and scheduling of appointments. An additional goal was to determine whether the interventions were more or less effective depending on a woman's readiness to get a mammogram, as measured by stage of change. METHODS: Eligible women were randomized into one of three treatment groups described earlier. Mammography rates were calculated on the basis of a claims review and follow-up phone interviews after a period of six months. RESULTS: Women who received the telephone intervention were most likely to obtain a mammogram (28%); followed by the group that received the birthday card only (15%), and those who received the mailed intervention (9%). CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate that a multicomponent phone intervention is significantly effective in promoting mammography in managed health care plan members. An analysis by women's stage of change found a difference in the effectiveness of the three interventions among contemplators only.

The 25-year health care costs of women who remain overweight after 40 years of age.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Previously published reports strongly suggest that being overweight is a risk factor for coronary heart disease, hypertension, diabetes, gallstones, and osteoarthritis in women. Substantial health care and medication costs are associated with these chronic health conditions. We used an incidence-based analysis to estimate the excess costs associated with women maintaining an overweight status during the 25-year period from age 40 to 65 years. METHODS: The health care costs of three hypothetical cohorts of 10,000 40-year-old women were extrapolated to age 65. The non-overweight cohort maintained a body mass index (BMI; weight [kg]/height [m2]) of 21 to 24.9; the moderately overweight cohort maintained a BMI of 25 to 28.9; the severely overweight cohort maintained a BMI of > or = 29. The number of fatal and nonfatal health outcomes in each cohort for heart disease, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, gallstones, and osteoarthritis was calculated with their associated costs. RESULTS: We estimated that when compared with the non-overweight cohort of 10,000 women, the cohort of 10,000 women who had a BMI of > or = 29 incurred excess costs of $53 million over a 25 year period (discounted at 3% per year) and 497 excess deaths. The cohort of 10,000 women who had a BMI of 25-28.9 incurred excess costs of $22 million (discounted at 3% per year) and 212 excess deaths, compared with the non-overweight cohort. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study indicate that an estimated $16 billion will be spent during the next 25 years treating health outcomes associated with overweight in middle-aged women in the United States. Thus, a substantial health burden is associated with the increasing prevalence of overweight women in the United States. Preventing excess coronary heart disease, gall-stones, osteoarthritis, hypertension, and diabetes through prevention of weight gain, particularly among reproductive-aged women, may be a cost-effective strategy.

A cost-benefit/cost-effectiveness analysis of smoking cessation for pregnant women.

Research has shown that pregnant women who smoke cigarettes increase their risk of having low birthweight (LBW) infants. Recent randomized trials indicate that women who quit smoking early in pregnancy reduce their risk of delivering a LBW infant. Using various sources, we estimated the cost-effectiveness of a smoking cessation program for preventing LBW and perinatal mortality. Assuming the program would cost $30 a participant and that 15% of the participants would quit smoking, we determined that a program offered to all pregnant smokers would shift 5,876 LBW infants to normal birthweight and would cost about $4,000 for each LBW infant prevented. Since infants born to smokers are at 20% greater risk for a perinatal death, a smoking cessation program could prevent 338 deaths at a cost of $69,542 for each perinatal death averted. Compared with the costs of caring for these LBW infants in a neonatal intensive care unit (NICU), smoking cessation programs would save $77,807,054, or $3.31 per $1 spent. The ratio of savings to costs increases to more than six to one when we include reducing long-term care for infants with disabilities secondary to LBW in the benefits from smoking cessation programs. These findings argue for routinely including smoking cessation programs in prenatal care for smokers.

The natural history of exercise: a 10-yr follow-up of a cohort of runners.

To determine the pattern of exercise and associated adverse events, including injuries, a mail survey was conducted on participants in the 1980 Peachtree Road Race Study for whom we were able to obtain current addresses. A total of 535 persons responded, 326 men and 209 women, representing 72% of those with identifiable addresses. Although only 56% of respondents reported that they were still running in 1990, 81% reported that they were still exercising regularly. The cumulative probability for continuing to run was 0.71 for men and 0.56 for women. Injury (31%) was the chief reason given by men for stopping permanently. For women, 28% stopped because they chose another form of exercise. Fifty-three percent of respondents had at least one injury during the 10-yr interval. The probability of experiencing an injury was associated with higher weekly mileage. The knee was the most frequently injured site. Thirty-nine percent of women and 35% of men reported being verbally assaulted. Approximately 10% of persons were hit by thrown objects or bitten by a dog. In a group of recreational runners, almost half had stopped running 10 yr later, but over 80% were still physically active. Many runners sustain injuries or suffer hazards related to their exercise.

The high cost and low efficacy of weekly viral cultures for pregnant women with recurrent genital herpes: a reappraisal.

The use of weekly cultures to prevent neonatal infection among infants of pregnant women who have histories of genital herpes has been controversial since a decision analysis study in 1983 suggested that this strategy was not cost-effective and would avert relatively few cases of neonatal herpes simplex virus infection. Using more recent and better data, the authors reanalyzed this approach to reducing neonatal herpes infection. The reanalysis revealed that a national screening program would prevent only 1.8 cases of neonatal herpes in the United States annually, at a cost of more than 37 million dollars per case averted. The program would cost nearly 7 million dollars per quality-adjusted life year gained when only infant deaths are taken into consideration. When maternal deaths from excess cesarean deliveries are taken into account, over 44 million dollars would be spent for every quality-adjusted life-year gained. On the basis of the strategy's limited benefits and low cost-effectiveness, the authors support the American College of Obstetrics and Gynecology's position of abandoning the recommendation for weekly prenatal herpes cultures.

Immunization of asymptomatic HIV-infected children with measles vaccine: assessment of risks and benefits.

Because HIV infection is associated with immunologic abnormalities, concerns have been expressed about the safety and efficacy of vaccination of infected children with live virus vaccines. The authors used decision analysis to assess the likely impacts of four alternative policies for immunization of asymptomatic HIV-infected children with measles vaccine. Probabilities for vaccine efficacy, vaccine-related adverse events, and measles complications in HIV-infected children and the prevalence of HIV infection in the birth cohort were obtained from a modified Delphi survey. Using median estimates from the Delphi survey, there were no major differences in outcomes under any proposed policy. Using the most extreme estimates, serologic testing and exclusion of seropositive children from vaccination or exclusion of all high-risk children decreased vaccine-associated adverse events without greatly increasing measles complications, primarily because of the current low incidence of measles. Under conditions assumed to exist in the United States today, alternate immunization policies have only minor differences in societal impact although costs would certainly differ.

Barriers to using cost-effectiveness analysis in managed care decision making.

Managed care organizations would appear to be natural advocates for, and users of, cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) as a tool for maximizing health outcomes for their covered populations within fixed budgets. There is, however, little evidence that CEA plays a major role in managed care decision making. The purpose of this paper is to identify barriers to both conducting and using CEA in managed care decision making. Lack of understanding about the value and applicability of CEA, and incentives that do not align with a lifetime perspective on either health outcomes or costs may be at least as important as perceived or real methodological limitations of the methodology. Research focused on ways to overcome these barriers, and thereby improve resource allocations, is recommended.

The prevention and control of chronic diseases: reducing unnecessary deaths and disability--a conference report.

Effective, yet underused, preventive measures exist to ameliorate such important public health problems as hypertension, coronary artery disease, and cervical cancer. The First National Conference on Chronic Disease Prevention and Control was convened in September 1986 by the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials and the Centers for Disease Control, Public Health Service, to disseminate information on successful chronic disease programs currently being implemented and to identify barriers to more wide-spread application of state-of-the-art prevention technology. This report briefly summarizes the deliberations of conference working groups (composed primarily of State and Federal public health officials) that addressed these issues. Numerous suggestions for improved surveillance, applied research, and training related to chronic disease prevention and control were offered, as well as ideas on organizing and marketing chronic disease intervention programs. The conference clearly identified a pressing need for a coalition of public health agencies and interested professional and voluntary organizations, as well as a coherent national agenda to combat chronic diseases.