Associations between 1930s HOLC grades and estimated population burden of cardiovascular disease risk factors in 2020.

Studies have recently begun to explore the potential long-term health impacts of homeownership policies implemented in the New Deal era. We investigated the association between assigned grades of lending risk by the Home Owners' Load Corporation (HOLC) maps from the 1930s and present-day prevalence of three cardiovascular risk factors (diabetes and obesity in 2020, and hypertension in 2019), estimated at the census tract level in the United States. To minimize potential confounding, we adjusted for sociodemographic data from the time period when HOLC maps were made. We calculated propensity scores (predicted probability of receiving a HOLC grade) and created a pseudo-population using inverse probability weighting. We then employed marginal structural models to estimate prevalence differences comparing A vs. B, B vs. C, and C vs. D HOLC grades. Adjusting only for regions, a less desirable HOLC grade was associated with higher estimated prevalence rates of present-day cardiovascular risk factors; however, most differences were no longer significant after applying propensity score methods. The one exception was that the prevalence of diabetes, hypertension, and obesity were all higher in C vs. B graded census tracts, while no differences were observed for C and D and A and B comparisons. These results contribute to a small body of evidence that suggests historical "yellowlining" (as C grade was in color yellow) may have had persistent impacts on neighborhood-level cardiovascular risk factors 80 years later.

Association between racial residential segregation and walkability in 745 U.S. cities.

Despite higher chronic disease prevalence, minoritized populations live in highly walkable neighborhoods in US cities more frequently than non-minoritized populations. We investigated whether city-level racial residential segregation (RRS) was associated with city-level walkability, stratified by population density, possibly explaining this counterintuitive association. RRS for Black-White and Latino-White segregation in large US cities was calculated using the Index of Dissimilarity (ID), and walkability was measured using WalkScore. Median walkability increased across increasing quartiles of population density, as expected. Higher ID was associated with higher walkability; associations varied in strength across strata of population density. RRS undergirds the observed association between walkability and minoritized populations, especially in higher population density cities.

Validation of a geospatial aggregation method for congressional districts and other US administrative geographies.

Stakeholders need data on health and drivers of health parsed to the boundaries of essential policy-relevant geographies. US Congressional Districts are an example of a policy-relevant geography which generally lack health data. One strategy to generate Congressional District heath data metric estimates is to aggregate estimates from other geographies, for example, from counties or census tracts to Congressional Districts. Doing so requires several methodological decisions. We refine a method to aggregate health metric estimates from one geography to another, using a population weighted approach. The method's accuracy is evaluated by comparing three aggregated metric estimates to metric estimates from the US Census American Community Survey for the same years: Broadband Access, High School Completion, and Unemployment. We then conducted four sensitivity analyses testing: the effect of aggregating counts vs. percentages; impacts of component geography size and data missingness; and extent of population overlap between component and target geographies. Aggregated estimates were very similar to estimates for identical metrics drawn directly from the data source. Sensitivity analyses suggest the following best practices for Congressional district-based metrics: utilizing smaller, more plentiful geographies like census tracts as opposed to larger, less plentiful geographies like counties, despite potential for less stable estimates in smaller geographies; favoring geographies with higher percentage population overlap.

Validation of a neighborhood-level COVID Local Risk Index in 47 large U.S. cities.

OBJECTIVES: To present the COVID Local Risk Index (CLRI), a measure of city- and neighborhood-level risk for SARS COV-2 infection and poor outcomes, and validate it using sub-city SARS COV-2 outcome data from 47 large U.S. cities. METHODS: Cross-sectional validation analysis of CLRI against SARS COV-2 incidence, percent positivity, hospitalization, and mortality. CLRI scores were validated against ZCTA-level SARS COV-2 outcome data gathered in 2020-2021 from public databases or through data use agreements using a negative binomial model. RESULTS: CLRI was associated with each SARS COV-2 outcome in pooled analysis. In city-level models, CLRI was positively associated with positivity in 11/14 cities for which data were available, hospitalization in 6/6 cities, mortality in 13/14 cities, and incidence in 33/47 cities. CONCLUSIONS: CLRI is a valid tool for assessing sub-city risk of SARS COV-2 infection and illness severity. Stronger associations with positivity, hospitalization and mortality may reflect differential testing access, greater weight on components associated with poor outcomes than transmission, omitted variable bias, or other reasons. City stakeholders can use the CLRI, publicly available on the City Health Dashboard (www.cityhealthdashboard.com), to guide SARS COV-2 resource allocation.