Subclinical Tuberculosis Disease-A Review and Analysis of Prevalence Surveys to Inform Definitions, Burden, Associations, and Screening Methodology.

While it is known that a substantial proportion of individuals with tuberculosis disease (TB) present subclinically, usually defined as bacteriologically-confirmed but negative on symptom screening, considerable knowledge gaps remain. Our aim was to review data from TB prevalence population surveys and generate a consistent definition and framework for subclinical TB, enabling us to estimate the proportion of TB that is subclinical, explore associations with overall burden and program indicators, and evaluate the performance of screening strategies. We extracted data from all publicly available prevalence surveys conducted since 1990. Between 36.1% and 79.7% (median, 50.4%) of prevalent bacteriologically confirmed TB was subclinical. No association was found between prevalence of subclinical and all bacteriologically confirmed TB, patient diagnostic rate, or country-level HIV prevalence (P values, .32, .4, and .34, respectively). Chest Xray detected 89% (range, 73%-98%) of bacteriologically confirmed TB, highlighting the potential of optimizing current TB case-finding policies.

National tuberculosis prevalence surveys in Africa, 2008-2016: an overview of results and lessons learned.

OBJECTIVE AND METHODS: Worldwide, tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death from a single infectious agent. In many countries, national TB prevalence surveys are the only way to reliably measure the burden of TB disease and can also provide other evidence to inform national efforts to improve TB detection and treatment. Our objective was to synthesise the results and lessons learned from national surveys completed in Africa between 2008 and 2016, to complement a previous review for Asia. RESULTS: Twelve surveys completed in Africa were identified: Ethiopia (2010-2011), Gambia (2011-2013), Ghana (2013), Kenya (2015-2016), Malawi (2013-2014), Nigeria (2012), Rwanda (2012), Sudan (2013-2014), Tanzania (2011-2012), Uganda (2014-2015), Zambia (2013-2014) and Zimbabwe (2014). The eligible population in all surveys was people aged ≥15 years who met residency criteria. In total 588 105 individuals participated, equivalent to 82% (range 57-96%) of those eligible. The prevalence of bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary TB disease in those ≥15 years varied from 119 (95% CI 79-160) per 100 000 population in Rwanda and 638 (95% CI 502-774) per 100 000 population in Zambia. The male:female ratio was 2.0 overall, ranging from 1.2 (Ethiopia) to 4.1 (Uganda). Prevalence per 100 000 population generally increased with age, but the absolute number of cases was usually highest among those aged 35-44 years. Of identified TB cases, 44% (95% CI 40-49) did not report TB symptoms during screening and were only identified as eligible for diagnostic testing due to an abnormal chest X-ray. The overall ratio of prevalence to case notifications was 2.5 (95% CI 1.8-3.2) and was consistently higher for men than women. Many participants who did report TB symptoms had not sought care; those that had were more likely to seek care in a public health facility. HIV prevalence was systematically lower among prevalent cases than officially notified TB patients with an overall ratio of 0.5 (95% CI 0.3-0.7). The two main study limitations were that none of the surveys included people <15 years, and 5 of 12 surveys did not have data on HIV status. CONCLUSIONS: National TB prevalence surveys implemented in Africa between 2010 and 2016 have contributed substantial new evidence about the burden of TB disease, its distribution by age and sex, and gaps in TB detection and treatment. Policies and practices to improve access to health services and reduce under-reporting of detected TB cases are needed, especially among men. All surveys provide a valuable baseline for future assessment of trends in TB disease burden.

OBJECTIF ET MÉTHODES: Dans le monde entier, la tuberculose (TB) est la principale cause de décès par un seul agent infectieux. Dans de nombreux pays, les surveillances nationales de prévalence de la TB sont le seul moyen de mesurer de manière fiable la charge de la TB et peuvent également fournir d'autres données pour éclairer les efforts nationaux visant à améliorer la détection et le traitement de la TB. Notre objectif était de synthétiser les résultats et les leçons tirées des surveillances nationales réalisées en Afrique entre 2008 et 2016, pour complémenter une analyse précédente pour l'Asie. RÉSULTATS: Douze surveillances réalisées en Afrique ont été identifiés: Ethiopie (2010-2011), Gambie (2011-2013), Ghana (2013), Kenya (2015-2016), Malawi (2013-2014), Nigeria (2012), Rwanda (2012), Soudan (2013-2014 ), Tanzanie (2011-2012), Ouganda (2014-2015), Zambie (2013-2014) et Zimbabwe (2014). La population éligible dans toutes les surveillances était des personnes ≥15 ans qui répondaient aux critères de résidence. Au total, 588.105 personnes ont participé, ce qui équivaut à 82% (entre 57% et 96% ) des personnes éligibles. La prévalence de la TB pulmonaire bactériologiquement confirmée chez les ≥15 ans variait de 119 (IC95%: 79-160) pour 100.000 habitants au Rwanda et 638 (IC95%: 502 à 774) pour 100.000 habitants en Zambie. Le ratio hommes/femmes était globalement de 2,0, allant de 1,2 (Ethiopie) à 4,1 (Ouganda). La prévalence pour 100.000 habitants augmentait généralement avec l'âge, mais le nombre absolu de cas était généralement le plus élevé chez les 35 à 44 ans. Parmi les cas de TB identifiés, 44% (IC95%: 40-49) n'ont pas rapporté de symptômes de TB lors du dépistage et n'ont été identifiés comme éligibles aux tests de diagnostic qu'en raison d'une radiographie pulmonaire anormale. Le rapport global entre la prévalence et les notifications de cas était de 2,5 (IC95%: 1,8-3,2) et était systématiquement plus élevé pour les hommes que pour les femmes. De nombreux participants qui avaient rapporté des symptômes de TB n'avaient pas recherché des soins; ceux qui en avaient étaient plus susceptibles de rechercher des soins dans un établissement de santé publique. La prévalence du VIH était systématiquement plus faible parmi les cas prévalents que chez les patients TB officiellement notifiés avec un rapport global de 0,5 (IC95% 0,3 - 0,7). Les deux principales limitations de l'étude étaient les suivantes: aucune des surveillances n'incluait des personnes de moins de 15 ans et 5 des 12 surveillances ne contenaient pas de données sur le statut VIH. CONCLUSIONS: Les surveillances nationales sur la prévalence de la TB en Afrique menées entre 2010 et 2016 ont fourni de nouvelles données sur la charge de morbidité de la TB, la répartition par âge et par sexe, et les lacunes dans la détection et le traitement de la TB. Des politiques et des pratiques pour améliorer l'accès aux services de santé et réduire la sous-déclaration des cas de TB détectés sont nécessaires, en particulier chez les hommes. Toutes les surveillances fournissent une base précieuse pour l'évaluation future des tendances de la charge de morbidité TB.

National tuberculosis prevalence surveys in Asia, 1990-2012: an overview of results and lessons learned.

OBJECTIVE AND METHODS: In many countries, national tuberculosis (TB) prevalence surveys are the only way to reliably measure the burden of TB disease and monitor trends. They can also provide evidence about the current performance of TB care and control and how this could be improved. We developed an inventory of Asian surveys from 1953 to 2012 and then compiled and analysed a standard set of data for all national surveys implemented between 1990 (the baseline year for 2015 global TB targets) and 2012. RESULTS: There were 21 surveys in 12 countries between 1990 and 2012; published results were available for 18. The participation rate was at least 80% and often much higher except for two surveys in Thailand. The prevalence of bacteriologically-positive TB disease among adults aged ≥15 years varied widely among countries (1.2 per 1000 population in China in 2010 to 15 per 1000 population in Cambodia in 2002), but age and sex distribution patterns were consistent with a progressive increase in rates of disease by age, and men accounting for 66-75% of prevalent cases. A high proportion of cases (40-79% across all surveys) did not report TB symptoms that met screening criteria (generally cough of 2-3 weeks or more, and blood in the sputum) and were only detected due to chest X-ray screening of all survey participants; this proportion increased over time in countries with repeat survey data. The ratio of prevalent cases to cases notified to national TB programmes was typically around two, but was as high as three in Lao PDR and Pakistan even after the internationally recommended TB control strategy had been implemented nationwide for several years. Four countries (China, Cambodia, the Republic of Korea and the Philippines demonstrated declines in smear or culture-positive pulmonary TB prevalence of approximately 50% over 10 years. CONCLUSIONS: National TB prevalence surveys in Asia show that large reductions in the prevalence of TB disease can be achieved within a decade, that men bear much more of the burden than women and that the epidemic is ageing. Comparisons among countries show that more can be achieved in TB control in some countries with existing strategies and technologies. However, with many prevalent cases not reporting classic TB symptoms, all countries face the challenge of defining and implementing strategies that will result in earlier detection and treatment of cases.

The first national tuberculosis prevalence survey of Lao PDR (2010-2011).

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to measure the prevalence of bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) in Lao PDR in 2010-2011. METHOD: A nationwide, multistage cluster-sampled cross-sectional survey was undertaken in 2010-2011. All consenting participants ≥15 years were screened for pulmonary TB with chest X-ray and symptom questionnaire. Two sputum specimens for bacteriological examination by microscopy and culture were collected from those who screened positive. Prevalence was estimated using multiple imputation and inverse probability weighting methods. RESULTS: Of 39 212 eligible participants from 50 clusters, 6290 participants provided at least one sputum sample for smear and culture. There were 237 bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary TB cases, 107 of which were smear-positive. Chest X-ray screening alone identified 230 (97.0%) cases compared with 118 (49.8%) by symptom screening alone. The estimated prevalence of smear-positive and bacteriologically confirmed TB in those ≥15 years was 278 per 100 000 (95%C.I. 199-356) and 595 per 100 000 (95%C.I. 457-733), respectively. Prevalence significantly increased with age and was higher in men than women. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of TB in Lao PDR is almost twice as high than previous estimates, with the greatest burden in the older population. Case detection efforts remain the primary goal of the national TB programme with case notifications being very low in comparison with the estimated number of prevalent cases. The survey observed major limitations with the diagnostic strategy of passive (symptom based) case finding that uses only direct smear microscopy for confirmation.

Computer-aided detection thresholds for digital chest radiography interpretation in tuberculosis diagnostic algorithms.

Objectives: Use of computer-aided detection (CAD) software is recommended to improve tuberculosis screening and triage, but threshold determination is challenging if reference testing has not been performed in all individuals. We aimed to determine such thresholds through secondary analysis of the 2019 Lesotho national tuberculosis prevalence survey. Methods: Symptom screening and chest radiographs were performed in participants aged ≥15 years; those symptomatic or with abnormal chest radiographs provided samples for Xpert MTB/RIF and culture testing. Chest radiographs were processed using CAD4TB version 7. We used six methodological approaches to deal with participants who did not have bacteriological test results to estimate pulmonary tuberculosis prevalence and assess diagnostic accuracy. Results: Among 17 070 participants, 5214 (31%) had their tuberculosis status determined; 142 had tuberculosis. Prevalence estimates varied between methodological approaches (0.83-2.72%). Using multiple imputation to estimate tuberculosis status for those eligible but not tested, and assuming those not eligible for testing were negative, a CAD4TBv7 threshold of 13 had a sensitivity of 89.7% (95% CI 84.6-94.8) and a specificity of 74.2% (73.6-74.9), close to World Health Organization (WHO) target product profile criteria. Assuming all those not tested were negative produced similar results. Conclusions: This is the first study to evaluate CAD4TB in a community screening context employing a range of approaches to account for unknown tuberculosis status. The assumption that those not tested are negative - regardless of testing eligibility status - was robust. As threshold determination must be context specific, our analytically straightforward approach should be adopted to leverage prevalence surveys for CAD threshold determination in other settings with a comparable proportion of eligible but not tested participants.

Prevalence of subclinical pulmonary tuberculosis in adults in community settings: an individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Subclinical pulmonary tuberculosis, which presents without recognisable symptoms, is frequently detected in community screening. However, the disease category is poorly clinically defined. We explored the prevalence of subclinical pulmonary tuberculosis according to different case definitions. METHODS: We did a one-stage individual participant data meta-analysis of nationally representative surveys that were conducted in countries with high incidence of tuberculosis between 2007 and 2020, that reported the prevalence of pulmonary tuberculosis based on chest x-ray and symptom screening in participants aged 15 years and older. Screening and diagnostic criteria were standardised across the surveys, and tuberculosis was defined by positive Mycobacterium tuberculosis sputum culture. We estimated proportions of subclinical tuberculosis for three case definitions: no persistent cough (ie, duration ≥2 weeks), no cough at all, and no symptoms (ie, absence of cough, fever, chest pain, night sweats, and weight loss), both unadjusted and adjusted for false-negative chest x-rays and uninterpretable culture results. FINDINGS: We identified 34 surveys, of which 31 were eligible. Individual participant data were obtained and included for 12 surveys (620 682 participants) across eight countries in Africa and four in Asia. Data on 602 863 participants were analysed, of whom 1944 had tuberculosis. The unadjusted proportion of subclinical tuberculosis was 59·1% (n=1149/1944; 95% CI 55·8-62·3) for no persistent cough and 39·8% (773/1944; 36·6-43·0) for no cough of any duration. The adjusted proportions were 82·8% (95% CI 78·6-86·6) for no persistent cough and 62·5% (56·6-68·7) for no cough at all. In a subset of four surveys, the proportion of participants with tuberculosis but without any symptoms was 20·3% (n=111/547; 95% CI 15·5-25·1) before adjustment and 27·7% (95% CI 21·0-36·4) after adjustment. Tuberculosis without cough, irrespective of its duration, was more frequent among women (no persistent cough: adjusted odds ratio 0·79, 95% CI 0·63-0·97; no cough: adjusted odds ratio 0·76, 95% CI 0·62-0·93). Among participants with tuberculosis, 29·1% (95% CI 25·2-33·3) of those without persistent cough and 23·1% (18·8-27·4) of those without any cough had positive smear examinations. INTERPRETATION: The majority of people in the community who have pulmonary tuberculosis do not report cough, a quarter report no tuberculosis-suggestive symptoms at all, and a quarter of those not reporting any cough have positive sputum smears, suggesting infectiousness. In high-incidence settings, subclinical tuberculosis could contribute considerably to the tuberculosis burden and to Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission. FUNDING: Mr Willem Bakhuys Roozeboom Foundation.

Tobacco smoking clusters in households affected by tuberculosis in an individual participant data meta-analysis of national tuberculosis prevalence surveys: Time for household-wide interventions?

Tuberculosis (TB) and non-communicable diseases (NCD) share predisposing risk factors. TB-associated NCD might cluster within households affected with TB requiring shared prevention and care strategies. We conducted an individual participant data meta-analysis of national TB prevalence surveys to determine whether NCD cluster in members of households with TB. We identified eligible surveys that reported at least one NCD or NCD risk factor through the archive maintained by the World Health Organization and searching in Medline and Embase from 1 January 2000 to 10 August 2021, which was updated on 23 March 2023. We compared the prevalence of NCD and their risk factors between people who do not have TB living in households with at least one person with TB (members of households with TB), and members of households without TB. We included 16 surveys (n = 740,815) from Asia and Africa. In a multivariable model adjusted for age and gender, the odds of smoking was higher among members of households with TB (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.23; 95% CI: 1.11-1.38), compared with members of households without TB. The analysis did not find a significant difference in the prevalence of alcohol drinking, diabetes, hypertension, or BMI between members of households with and without TB. Studies evaluating household-wide interventions for smoking to reduce its dual impact on TB and NCD may be warranted. Systematically screening for NCD using objective diagnostic methods is needed to understand the actual burden of NCD and inform comprehensive interventions.

Healthcare seeking patterns for TB symptoms: Findings from the first national TB prevalence survey of South Africa, 2017-2019.

BACKGROUND: Although tuberculosis (TB) symptoms have limited sensitivity they remain an important entry point into the TB care cascade. OBJECTIVES: To investigate self-reported healthcare seeking for TB symptoms in participants in a community-based survey. METHODS: We compared reasons for not seeking care in participants reporting ≥1 of four TB screening symptoms (cough, weight loss, night sweats, fever) in the first South African national TB prevalence survey (2017-2019). We used logistic regression analyses to identify sociodemographic and clinical characteristics associated with healthcare seeking. RESULTS: 5,168/35,191 (14.7%) survey participants reported TB symptoms and 3,442/5168 had not sought healthcare. 2,064/3,442(60.0%) participants intended to seek care, 912 (26.5%) regarded symptoms as benign, 399 (11.6%) reported access barriers(distance and cost), 36 (1.0%) took other medications and 20(0.6%) reported health system barriers. Of the 57/98 symptomatic participants diagnosed with bacteriologically confirmed TB who had not sought care: 38(66.7%) intended to do so, 8(14.0%) regarded symptoms as benign, and 6(10.5%) reported access barriers. Among these 98, those with unknown HIV status(OR 0.16 95% CI 0.03-0.82), p = 0.03 and those who smoked tobacco products(OR 0.39, 95% CI 0.17-0.89, p = 0.03) were significantly less likely to seek care. CONCLUSIONS: People with TB symptoms delayed seeking healthcare, many regarded symptoms as benign while others faced access barriers. Those with unknown HIV status were significantly less likely to seek care. Strengthening community-based TB awareness and screening programmes together with self-screening models could increase awareness of the significance of TB symptoms and contribute to improving healthcare seeking and enable many people with TB to enter the TB care cascade.

Estimating the contribution of subclinical tuberculosis disease to transmission: An individual patient data analysis from prevalence surveys.

Background: Individuals with bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) disease who do not report symptoms (subclinical TB) represent around half of all prevalent cases of TB, yet their contribution to Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission is unknown, especially compared to individuals who report symptoms at the time of diagnosis (clinical TB). Relative infectiousness can be approximated by cumulative infections in household contacts, but such data are rare. Methods: We reviewed the literature to identify studies where surveys of Mtb infection were linked to population surveys of TB disease. We collated individual-level data on representative populations for analysis and used literature on the relative durations of subclinical and clinical TB to estimate relative infectiousness through a cumulative hazard model, accounting for sputum-smear status. Relative prevalence of subclinical and clinical disease in high-burden settings was used to estimate the contribution of subclinical TB to global Mtb transmission. Results: We collated data on 414 index cases and 789 household contacts from three prevalence surveys (Bangladesh, the Philippines, and Viet Nam) and one case-finding trial in Viet Nam. The odds ratio for infection in a household with a clinical versus subclinical index case (irrespective of sputum smear status) was 1.2 (0.6-2.3, 95% confidence interval). Adjusting for duration of disease, we found a per-unit-time infectiousness of subclinical TB relative to clinical TB of 1.93 (0.62-6.18, 95% prediction interval [PrI]). Fourteen countries across Asia and Africa provided data on relative prevalence of subclinical and clinical TB, suggesting an estimated 68% (27-92%, 95% PrI) of global transmission is from subclinical TB. Conclusions: Our results suggest that subclinical TB contributes substantially to transmission and needs to be diagnosed and treated for effective progress towards TB elimination. Funding: JCE, KCH, ASR, NS, and RH have received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (ERC Starting Grant No. 757699) KCH is also supported by UK FCDO (Leaving no-one behind: transforming gendered pathways to health for TB). This research has been partially funded by UK aid from the UK government (to KCH); however, the views expressed do not necessarily reflect the UK government's official policies. PJD was supported by a fellowship from the UK Medical Research Council (MR/P022081/1); this UK-funded award is part of the EDCTP2 programme supported by the European Union. RGW is funded by the Wellcome Trust (218261/Z/19/Z), NIH (1R01AI147321-01), EDTCP (RIA208D-2505B), UK MRC (CCF17-7779 via SET Bloomsbury), ESRC (ES/P008011/1), BMGF (OPP1084276, OPP1135288 and INV-001754), and the WHO (2020/985800-0).

Association of diabetes, smoking, and alcohol use with subclinical-to-symptomatic spectrum of tuberculosis in 16 countries: an individual participant data meta-analysis of national tuberculosis prevalence surveys.

Background: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and NCD risk factors, such as smoking, increase the risk for tuberculosis (TB). Data are scarce on the risk of prevalent TB associated with these factors in the context of population-wide systematic screening and on the association between NCDs and NCD risk factors with different manifestations of TB, where ∼50% being asymptomatic but bacteriologically positive (subclinical). We did an individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis of national and sub-national TB prevalence surveys to synthesise the evidence on the risk of symptomatic and subclinical TB in people with NCDs or risk factors, which could help countries to plan screening activities. Methods: In this systematic review and IPD meta-analysis, we identified eligible prevalence surveys in low-income and middle-income countries that reported at least one NCD (e.g., diabetes) or NCD risk factor (e.g., smoking, alcohol use) through the archive maintained by the World Health Organization and by searching in Medline and Embase from January 1, 2000 to August 10, 2021. The search was updated on March 23, 2023. We performed a one-stage meta-analysis using multivariable multinomial models. We estimated the proportion of and the odds ratio for subclinical and symptomatic TB compared to people without TB for current smoking, alcohol use, and self-reported diabetes, adjusted for age and gender. Subclinical TB was defined as microbiologically confirmed TB without symptoms of current cough, fever, night sweats, or weight loss and symptomatic TB with at least one of these symptoms. We assessed heterogeneity using forest plots and I2 statistic. Missing variables were imputed through multi-level multiple imputation. This study is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42021272679). Findings: We obtained IPD from 16 national surveys out of 21 national and five sub-national surveys identified (five in Asia and 11 in Africa, N = 740,815). Across surveys, 15.1%-56.7% of TB were subclinical (median: 38.1%). In the multivariable model, current smoking was associated with both subclinical (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.27-2.40) and symptomatic TB (OR 1.49, 95% CI 1.34-1.66). Self-reported diabetes was associated with symptomatic TB (OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.17-2.40) but not with subclinical TB (OR 0.92, 95% CI 0.55-1.55). For alcohol drinking ≥ twice per week vs no alcohol drinking, the estimates were imprecise (OR 1.59, 95% CI 0.70-3.62) for subclinical TB and OR 1.43, 95% CI 0.59-3.46 for symptomatic TB). For the association between current smoking and symptomatic TB, I2 was high (76.5% (95% CI 62.0-85.4), while the direction of the point estimates was consistent except for three surveys with wide CIs. Interpretation: Our findings suggest that current smokers are more likely to have both symptomatic and subclinical TB. These individuals can, therefore, be prioritised for intensified screening, such as the use of chest X-ray in the context of community-based screening. People with self-reported diabetes are also more likely to have symptomatic TB, but the association is unclear for subclinical TB. Funding: None.

Prevalence of bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis in South Africa, 2017-19: a multistage, cluster-based, cross-sectional survey.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis remains an important clinical and public health issue in South Africa, which has one of the highest tuberculosis burdens in the world. We aimed to estimate the burden of bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis among people aged 15 years or older in South Africa. METHODS: This multistage, cluster-based, cross-sectional survey included eligible residents (age ≥15 years, who had slept in a house for ≥10 nights in the preceding 2 weeks) in 110 clusters nationally (cluster size of 500 people; selected by probability proportional-to-population size sampling). Participants completed face-to-face symptom questionnaires (for cough, weight loss, fever, and night sweats) and manually read digital chest X-ray screening. Screening was recorded as positive if participants had at least one symptom or an abnormal chest X-ray suggestive of tuberculosis, or a combination thereof. Sputum samples from participants who were screen-positive were tested by the Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra assay (first sample) and Mycobacteria Growth Indicator Tube culture (second sample), with optional HIV testing. Participants with a positive Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex culture were considered positive for bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis; when culture was not positive, participants with a positive Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra result with an abnormal chest X-ray suggestive of active tuberculosis and without current or previous tuberculosis were considered positive for bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis. FINDINGS: Between Aug 15, 2017, and July 28, 2019, 68 771 people were enumerated from 110 clusters, with 53 250 eligible to participate in the survey, of whom 35 191 (66·1%) participated. 9066 (25·8%) of 35 191 participants were screen-positive and 234 (0·7%) were identified as having bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis. Overall, the estimated prevalence of bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis was 852 cases (95% CI 679-1026) per 100 000 population; the prevalence was highest in people aged 35-44 years (1107 cases [95% CI 703-1511] per 100 000 population) and those aged 65 years or older (1104 cases [680-1528] per 100 000 population). The estimated prevalence was approximately 1·6 times higher in men than in women (1094 cases [95% CI 835-1352] per 100 000 population vs 675 cases [494-855] per 100 000 population). 135 (57·7%) of 234 participants with tuberculosis screened positive by chest X-ray only, 16 (6·8%) by symptoms only, and 82 (35·9%) by both. 55 (28·8%) of 191 participants with tuberculosis with known HIV status were HIV-positive. INTERPRETATION: Pulmonary tuberculosis prevalence in this survey was high, especially in men. Despite the ongoing burden of HIV, many participants with tuberculosis in this survey did not have HIV. As more than half of the participants with tuberculosis had an abnormal chest X-ray without symptoms, prioritising chest X-ray screening could substantially increase case finding. FUNDING: Global Fund, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, USAID.

A trial of combination antimalarial therapies in children from Papua New Guinea.

BACKGROUND: Malaria control is difficult where there is intense year-round transmission of multiple plasmodium species, such as in Papua New Guinea. METHODS: Between April 2005 and July 2007, we conducted an open-label, randomized, parallel-group study of conventional chloroquine-sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine and artesunate-sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine, dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine, and artemether-lumefantrine in children in Papua New Guinea 0.5 to 5 years of age who had falciparum or vivax malaria. The primary end point was the rate of adequate clinical and parasitologic response at day 42 after the start of treatment with regard to Plasmodium falciparum, after correction for reinfections identified through polymerase-chain-reaction (PCR) genotyping of polymorphic loci in parasite DNA. Secondary end points included the rate of adequate clinical and parasitologic response at day 42 with regard to P. vivax without correction through PCR genotyping. RESULTS: Of 2802 febrile children screened, 482 with falciparum malaria and 195 with vivax malaria were included. The highest rate of adequate clinical and parasitologic response for P. falciparum was in the artemether-lumefantrine group (95.2%), as compared with 81.5% in the chloroquine-sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine group (P=0.003), 85.4% in the artesunate-sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine group (P=0.02), and 88.0% in the dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine group (P=0.06). The rate of adequate clinical and parasitologic response for P. vivax in the dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine group (69.4%) was more than twice that in each of the other three treatment groups. The in vitro chloroquine and piperaquine levels that inhibited growth of local P. falciparum isolates by 50% correlated significantly (P<0.001). Rash occurred more often with artesunate-sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine than with chloroquine-sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (P=0.004 for both comparisons). CONCLUSIONS: The most effective regimens were artemether-lumefantrine against P. falciparum and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine against P. vivax. The relatively high rate of treatment failure with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine against P. falciparum may reflect cross-resistance between chloroquine and piperaquine. (Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry number, ACTRN12605000550606.)

High TB burden and low notification rates in the Philippines: The 2016 national TB prevalence survey.

SETTING: The 3rd national tuberculosis (TB) survey in the Philippines in 2007 reported a significant decline in the prevalence of TB. Since then, more significant investments for TB control have been made, yet TB burden estimates from routine surveillance data remain relatively stable. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence of bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary TB in the Philippines amongst individuals aged ≥15 years in 2016. DESIGN: In March-December 2016, we conducted a population-based survey with stratified, multi-stage cluster sampling of residents in 106 clusters aged ≥15 years. Survey participants were screened for TB by symptom-based interview and digital chest X-ray. Those with cough ≥2 weeks and/or haemoptysis and/or chest X-ray suggestive of TB were requested to submit 2 sputum specimens for Xpert MTB/RIF, direct sputum smear microscopy using LED fluorescent microscopy, and mycobacterial solid culture (Ogawa method). Bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary TB was defined as MTB culture positive and/or Xpert positive. RESULTS: There were 46,689 individuals interviewed, and 41,444 (88.8%) consented to a chest X-ray. There were 18,597 (39.8%) eligible for sputum examination and 16,242 (87.3%) submitted at least one specimen. Out of 16,058 sputum-eligible participants, 183 (1.1%) were smear-positive. There were 466 bacteriologically confirmed TB cases: 238 (51.1%) Xpert positive, 69 (14.8%) culture positive, and 159 (34.1%) positive by both Xpert and culture. The estimated TB prevalence per 100,000 population aged ≥15 years was 434 (95% CI: 350-518) for smear-positive TB, and 1,159 (95% CI: 1,016-1,301) for bacteriologically confirmed TB. CONCLUSION: This nationally representative survey found that the TB burden in the Philippines in 2016 was higher than estimated from routine TB surveillance data. There was no evidence of a decline in smear and culture positive TB from the 2007 survey despite significant investments in TB control. New strategies for case-finding and patient-centered care must be intensified and expanded.

Pharmacokinetics of chloroquine and monodesethylchloroquine in pregnancy.

In order to determine the pharmacokinetic disposition of chloroquine (CQ) and its active metabolite, desethylchloroquine (DECQ), when administered as intermittent presumptive treatment in pregnancy (IPTp) for malaria, 30 Papua New Guinean women in the second or third trimester of pregnancy and 30 age-matched nonpregnant women were administered three daily doses of 450 mg CQ (8.5 mg/kg of body weight/day) in addition to a single dose of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine. For all women, blood was taken at baseline; at 1, 2, 4, 6, 12, 18, 24, 30, 48, and 72 h posttreatment; and at 7, 10, 14, 28, and 42 days posttreatment. Plasma was subsequently assayed for CQ and DECQ by high-performance liquid chromatography, and population pharmacokinetic modeling was performed. Pregnant subjects had significantly lower area under the plasma concentration-time curve for both CQ (35,750 versus 47,892 microg.h/liter, P < 0.001) and DECQ (23,073 versus 41,584 microg.h/liter, P < 0.001), reflecting significant differences in elimination half-lives and in volumes of distribution and clearances relative to bioavailability. Reduced plasma concentrations of both CQ and DECQ could compromise both curative efficacy and posttreatment prophylactic properties in pregnant patients. Higher IPTp CQ doses may be desirable but could increase the risk of adverse hemodynamic effects.

Pharmacokinetic properties of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine in pregnant women.

To determine the pharmacokinetic disposition of sulfadoxine (SDOX) and pyrimethamine (PYR) when administered as intermittent presumptive treatment during pregnancy (IPTp) for malaria, 30 Papua New Guinean women in the second or third trimester of pregnancy and 30 age-matched nonpregnant women were given a single dose of 1,500 mg of SDOX plus 75 mg of pyrimethamine PYR. Blood was taken at baseline and 1, 2, 4, 6, 12, 18, 24, 30, 48, and 72 h and at 7, 10, 14, 28, and 42 days posttreatment in all women. Plasma samples were assayed for SDOX, N-acetylsulfadoxine (NASDOX), and PYR by high-performance liquid chromatography. Population pharmacokinetic modeling was performed using NONMEM v6.2.0. Separate user-defined mamillary models were fitted to SDOX/NASDOX and PYR. When the covariate pregnancy was applied to clearance, there was a significant improvement in the base model for both treatments. Pregnancy was associated with a significantly lower area under the concentration-time curve from 0 to infinity for SDOX (22,315 versus 33,284 mg x h/liter), NASDOX (801 versus 1,590 mg x h/liter), and PYR (72,115 versus 106,065 microg x h/liter; P < 0.001 in each case). Because lower plasma concentrations of SDOX and PYR could compromise both curative efficacy and posttreatment prophylaxis in pregnant patients, IPTp regimens incorporating higher mg/kg doses than those recommended for nonpregnant patients should be considered.

Transfer of chloroquine and desethylchloroquine across the placenta and into milk in Melanesian mothers.

WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ABOUT THIS SUBJECT: The literature on placental and milk transfer of chloroquine and its major bioactive metabolite desethylchloroquine is sparse and incomplete. WHAT THIS STUDY ADDS: We have provided data on the transplacental transfer of chloroquine and desethylchloroquine in Melanesian women (n = 19), measured transfer of these drugs into breast milk (n = 16) and estimated absolute and relative infant doses for the breastfed infant. The data for desethylchloroquine are novel. In all three areas we have significantly increased both quantity and quality of the available database. AIMS: To investigate the transfer of chloroquine and its major bioactive metabolite desethylchloroquine across the placenta and into breast milk. METHODS: In Papua New Guinea, chloroquine (CQ; 25 mg base kg(-1)) is recommended for prophylaxis of malaria during pregnancy, and at the Alexishafen Health Centre women are routinely prescribed CQ at the time of delivery. Fetal-cord and maternal serum samples were collected at delivery (n = 19) and milk samples were collected from day 3 to day 17-21 after delivery (n = 16). CQ and its primary active metabolite desethylchloroquine (DECQ) were quantified by high-performance liquid chromatography. For both CQ and DECQ cord/maternal ratios (C/M) were calculated to characterize placental transfer, and infant exposure via milk was estimated by standard methods. RESULTS: The median (interquartile range) C/M was 1.1 (0.9, 1.6) for CQ and 1.2 (0.5, 1.8) for DECQ. The average concentration in milk over the time of sampling was 167 microg l(-1) (27, 340) for CQ and 54 microg l(-1) (22, 106) for DECQ. Estimated absolute and relative infant doses were 34 microg kg(-1) day(-1) (7, 50) and 15 microg kg(-1) day(-1) (4, 26), and 2.3% (0.5, 3.6) and 1.0% (0.4, 2.0) for CQ and DECQ (as CQ equivalents), respectively. CONCLUSION: Infant exposure to CQ and DECQ during pregnancy will be similar to that in the maternal circulation, and dependent on maternal dose and frequency. The median CQ + DECQ relative infant dose of 3.2% (as CQ equivalents) was low, confirming that use of CQ during lactation is compatible with breastfeeding.

The high burden of cervical cancer in Fiji, 2004-07.

BACKGROUND: There are few population-based data on the disease burden of cervical cancer from developing countries, especially South Pacific islands. This study aimed to determine the incidence and mortality associated with cervical cancer and the coverage of Papanicolaou (Pap) cervical cytology in 20- to 69-year-old women in Fiji from 2004 to 2007. METHODS: National data on the incident cases of histologically confirmed cervical cancer and the associated deaths, and on Pap smear results were collected from all pathology laboratories, and cancer and death registries in Fiji from 2004 to 2007. RESULTS: There were 413 incident cases of cervical cancer and 215 related deaths during the study timeframe. The annualised incidence and mortality rates in 20- to 69-year-old Melanesian Fijian women, at 49.7 per 100?000 (95% confidence interval (CI): 43.7-56.4) and 32.3 per 100?000 (95% CI: 26.9-38.4) respectively, were significantly higher than among 20- to 69-year-old Indo-Fijian women at 35.2 per 100?000 (P<0.001, 95% CI: 29.5-41.7) and 19.8 per 100?000 (P=0.002, 95% CI: 15.1-25.5) respectively. Of 330 cases diagnosed between 2004 and 2006, 186 (56%) had died by 31 December 2006. Pap smear coverage for this period was 8.0% (95% CI: 7.9-8.1) of the target population. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence and mortality related to cervical cancer in Fiji is high, whereas Pap smear coverage is very low. Greater investment in alternative screening strategies and preventive measures should be integrated into a comprehensive, strategic cervical cancer control program in Fiji.

Human papillomavirus genotype prevalence in cervical biopsies from women diagnosed with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia or cervical cancer in Fiji.

BACKGROUND: There is currently limited information about human papillomavirus (HPV) genotype distribution in women in the South Pacific region. This study's objective was to determine HPV genotypes present in cervical cancer (CC) and precancers (cervical intraepithelial lesion (CIN) 3) in Fiji. METHODS: Cross-sectional analysis evaluated archival CC and CIN3 biopsy samples from 296 women of Melanesian Fijian ethnicity (n=182, 61.5%) and Indo-Fijian ethnicity (n=114, 38.5%). HPV genotypes were evaluated using the INNO-LiPA assay in archival samples from CC (n=174) and CIN3 (n=122) among women in Fiji over a 5-year period from 2003 to 2007. RESULTS: Overall, 99% of the specimens tested were HPV DNA-positive for high-risk genotypes, with detection rates of 100%, 97.4% and 100% in CIN3, squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and adenosquamous carcinoma biopsies, respectively. Genotypes 16 and 18 were the most common (77%), followed by HPV 31 (4.3%). Genotype HPV 16 was the most common identified (59%) in CIN3 specimens, followed by HPV 31 (9%) and HPV 52 (6.6%). Multiple genotypes were detected in 12.5-33.3% of specimens, depending on the pathology. CONCLUSION: These results indicated that the two most prevalent CC-associated HPV genotypes in Fiji parallel those described in other regions worldwide, with genotype variations thereafter. These data suggest that the currently available bivalent and quadrivalent HPV vaccines could potentially reduce cervical cancers in Fiji by over 80% and reduce precancers by at least 60%.

Features and prognosis of severe malaria caused by Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium vivax and mixed Plasmodium species in Papua New Guinean children.

BACKGROUND: Mortality from severe pediatric falciparum malaria appears low in Oceania but Plasmodium vivax is increasingly recognized as a cause of complications and death. The features and prognosis of mixed Plasmodium species infections are poorly characterized. Detailed prospective studies that include accurate malaria diagnosis and detection of co-morbidities are lacking. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We followed 340 Papua New Guinean (PNG) children with PCR-confirmed severe malaria (77.1% P. falciparum, 7.9% P. vivax, 14.7% P. falciparum/vivax) hospitalized over a 3-year period. Bacterial cultures were performed to identify co-incident sepsis. Clinical management was under national guidelines. Of 262 children with severe falciparum malaria, 30.9%, 24.8% and 23.2% had impaired consciousness, severe anemia, and metabolic acidosis/hyperlactatemia, respectively. Two (0.8%) presented with hypoglycemia, seven (2.7%) were discharged with neurologic impairment, and one child died (0.4%). The 27 severe vivax malaria cases presented with similar phenotypic features to the falciparum malaria cases but respiratory distress was five times more common (P=0.001); one child died (3.7%). The 50 children with P. falciparum/vivax infections shared phenotypic features of mono-species infections, but were more likely to present in deep coma and had the highest mortality (8.0%; P=0.003 vs falciparum malaria). Overall, bacterial cultures were positive in only two non-fatal cases. 83.6% of the children had alpha-thalassemia trait and seven with coma/impaired consciousness had South Asian ovalocytosis (SAO). CONCLUSIONS: The low mortality from severe falciparum malaria in PNG children may reflect protective genetic factors other than alpha-thalassemia trait/SAO, good nutrition, and/or infrequent co-incident sepsis. Severe vivax malaria had similar features but severe P. falciparum/vivax infections were associated with the most severe phenotype and worst prognosis.