Life history adaptations to fluctuating environments: Combined effects of demographic buffering and lability.

Demographic buffering and lability have been identified as adaptive strategies to optimise fitness in a fluctuating environment. These are not mutually exclusive, however, we lack efficient methods to measure their relative importance for a given life history. Here, we decompose the stochastic growth rate (fitness) into components arising from nonlinear responses and variance-covariance of demographic parameters to an environmental driver, which allows studying joint effects of buffering and lability. We apply this decomposition for 154 animal matrix population models under different scenarios to explore how these main fitness components vary across life histories. Faster-living species appear more responsive to environmental fluctuations, either positively or negatively. They have the highest potential for strong adaptive demographic lability, while demographic buffering is a main strategy in slow-living species. Our decomposition provides a comprehensive framework to study how organisms adapt to variability through buffering and lability, and to predict species responses to climate change.

Temporal correlations among demographic parameters are ubiquitous but highly variable across species.

Temporal correlations among demographic parameters can strongly influence population dynamics. Our empirical knowledge, however, is very limited regarding the direction and the magnitude of these correlations and how they vary among demographic parameters and species' life histories. Here, we use long-term demographic data from 15 bird and mammal species with contrasting pace of life to quantify correlation patterns among five key demographic parameters: juvenile and adult survival, reproductive probability, reproductive success and productivity. Correlations among demographic parameters were ubiquitous, more frequently positive than negative, but strongly differed across species. Correlations did not markedly change along the slow-fast continuum of life histories, suggesting that they were more strongly driven by ecological than evolutionary factors. As positive temporal demographic correlations decrease the mean of the long-run population growth rate, the common practice of ignoring temporal correlations in population models could lead to the underestimation of extinction risks in most species.

Within- and between-year variations of reproductive strategy and cost in a population of Siberian chipmunks.

Reproduction costs depend on the general life-history strategies employed by organisms for resource acquisition, the decision rules on resource allocation, and the resource availability. Although the predictability of resource availability is expected to influence the breeding strategy, the relationship between predictability and strategy has rarely been investigated at the population level. One reason is that, while the resource availability is commonly variable in space and time, their predictability is generally assumed constant. Here, we addressed the temporal variation of the breeding strategy and its associated survival cost in a hibernating population of Tamias sibiricus, in which food resources vary in their availability between years and in their predictability within years. Based on 11 years of mark-recapture data, we used multi-event modelling to investigate seasonal variations in reproduction costs of female chipmunks that breed twice a year (spring and summer). In summer, during which a large variety and quantity of resources is available (income breeding strategy), the proportion of breeding females was consistent across years and reproduction yielded no mortality cost. In contrast, in spring, the proportion of breeding females was positively correlated with the amount of resources available for hibernation (partial capital breeding strategy). Spring reproduction yielded no immediate cost, but induced a delayed mortality cost over the next winter if future unknown conditions were unfavorable. Our findings highlight complex temporal reproductive patterns in a short-lived species: not only does the modality of resource acquisition vary among seasons, but also the decision rule to breed and its associated cost.

Seasonal variation in infestations by ixodids on Siberian chipmunks: effects of host age, sex, and birth season.

In mammalian hosts, macroparasite aggregation is highly heterogeneous over space and time and among individuals. While the exact causes of this heterogeneity remain unclear, it has mainly been attributed to individual differences in exposure and susceptibility. Although some extrinsic (e.g., parasite availability) and intrinsic (e.g., sex or age) factors are well known to affect infestation patterns, the joint and possibly interacting effects of these factors are poorly understood. Here, we study the infestation of hard ticks (mainly Ixodes ricinus) in a small rodent, the Siberian chipmunk (Tamias sibiricus), introduced to an oak-hornbeam forest in France. We investigate the seasonal variation in infestation according to the sex, age, birth season (spring-born or summer-born), and body weight of individual hosts while controlling for interannual variability. During the 10-year study period, 3421 tick count events were recorded involving 1017 chipmunks monitored by the capture-mark-recapture procedure. Our results reveal a male-biased parasitism in the Siberian chipmunk, which is not consistent among individuals born in different seasons. This sex bias is observed among spring-born juveniles from July to the beginning of hibernation. For adults, this difference becomes apparent along the reproduction period (May-September) for summer-born adults only. These complex interactions between sex, age, and birth season suggest overall that the seasonal variation of tick load is critically linked to the reproductive behavior of this small ground sciurid.

Life history predicts global population responses to the weather in terrestrial mammals.

With the looming threat of abrupt ecological disruption due to a changing climate, predicting which species are most vulnerable to environmental change is critical. The life-history of a species is an evolved response to its environmental context, and therefore a promising candidate for explaining differences in climate-change responses. However, we need broad empirical assessments from across the world's ecosystems to explore the link between life history and climate-change responses. Here, we use long-term abundance records from 157 species of terrestrial mammals and a two-step Bayesian meta-regression framework to investigate the link between annual weather anomalies, population growth rates, and species-level life history. Overall, we found no directional effect of temperature or precipitation anomalies or variance on annual population growth rates. Furthermore, population responses to weather anomalies were not predicted by phylogenetic covariance, and instead there was more variability in weather responses for populations within a species. Crucially, however, long-lived mammals with smaller litter sizes had smaller absolute population responses to weather anomalies compared with their shorter living counterparts with larger litters. These results highlight the role of species-level life history in driving responses to the environment.