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1.
Eur J Epidemiol ; 39(4): 343-347, 2024 Apr.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38733447

RESUMEN

Trial emulations in observational data analyses can complement findings from randomized clinical trials, inform future trial designs, or generate evidence when randomized studies are not feasible due to resource constraints and ethical or practical limitations. Importantly, trial emulation designs facilitate causal inference in observational data analyses by enhancing counterfactual thinking and comparisons of real-world observations (e.g. Mendelian Randomization) to hypothetical interventions. In order to enhance credibility, trial emulations would benefit from prospective registration, publication of statistical analysis plans, and subsequent prospective benchmarking to randomized clinical trials prior to their publication. Confounding by indication, however, is the key challenge to interpreting observed intended effects of an intervention as causal in observational data analyses. We discuss the target trial emulation of the REDUCE-AMI randomized clinical trial (ClinicalTrials.gov ID NCT03278509; beta-blocker use in patients with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction after myocardial infarction) to illustrate the challenges and uncertainties of studying intended effects of interventions without randomization to account for confounding. We furthermore directly compare the findings, statistical power, and clinical interpretation of the results of the REDUCE-AMI target trial emulation to those from the simultaneously published randomized clinical trial. The complexity and subtlety of confounding by indication when studying intended effects of interventions can generally only be addressed by randomization.


Asunto(s)
Infarto del Miocardio , Ensayos Clínicos Controlados Aleatorios como Asunto , Proyectos de Investigación , Humanos , Incertidumbre
2.
Neuroepidemiology ; 57(1): 14-24, 2023.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36398446

RESUMEN

INTRODUCTION: Dementia prevention trials have so far shown little benefit of multidomain interventions against cognitive decline. Recruitment strategies in these trials often centre around dementia risk or cardiovascular risk profile, but it is uncertain whether this leads to inclusion of individuals who may benefit most from the intervention. We determined the effects of eligibility criteria on the recruitment of potential trial participants in the general population. METHODS: In a systematic search until January 1, 2022, we identified all published and ongoing large (≥500 participants), phase-3 multidomain trials for the prevention of cognitive decline or dementia. We applied trial eligibility criteria to 5,381 participants of the population-based Rotterdam Study (mean age: 72 years, 58% women), to compare participant characteristics, predicted risk of cardiovascular disease, and dementia risk, between trial eligible and ineligible persons. RESULTS: We identified 10 trials, of which 5 had been published (DR's EXTRA, FINGER, preDIVA, MAPT, and HATICE) and 5 are ongoing (US-POINTER, MIND-CHINA, MYB, AgeWell.de, and J-Mint). Among all Rotterdam Study participants, eligibility across published trials ranged from 48% for MAPT to 87% for preDIVA, in line with original trial reports. Variability in eligibility was wider for ongoing trials, from 1% for US-POINTER to over 94% for MYB trial. Over 70% of trial eligible individuals are recommended preventive intervention in routine care based on their cardiovascular risk, similar for lipid-lowering (71%) and blood pressure-lowering treatment (73%). Ten-year risks of dementia were similar for eligible compared to ineligible individuals (12 vs. 11%). CONCLUSION: Multidomain dementia prevention trials fail to preferentially include those at the highest risk of dementia and mostly include individuals who qualify for interventions already on the basis of cardiovascular prevention guidelines. These findings call for better targeted enrolment of individuals for whom trial results can improve clinical decision-making.


Asunto(s)
Enfermedades Cardiovasculares , Disfunción Cognitiva , Demencia , Humanos , Femenino , Anciano , Masculino , Selección de Paciente , Disfunción Cognitiva/epidemiología , Proyectos de Investigación , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/epidemiología , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/prevención & control , Demencia/epidemiología , Demencia/prevención & control
3.
Eur J Epidemiol ; 38(8): 853-858, 2023 Aug.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36947265

RESUMEN

Analyses from administrative databases have suggested an increased cancer incidence among individuals who experienced a myocardial infarction, especially within the first 6 months. It remains unclear to what extent this represents an underlying biological link, or can be explained by detection of pre-symptomatic cancers and shared risk factors. Cancer incidence among 1809 consecutive patients surviving hospitalization for thrombotic ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI; mean age 62.6 years; 26% women; 115 incident cancers) was compared to the cancer incidence among 10,052 individuals of the general population (Rotterdam Study; mean age 63.1 years; 57% women; 677 incident cancers). Pathology-confirmed cancer diagnoses were obtained through identical linkage of both cohorts with the Netherlands Cancer Registry. Cox models were used to obtain hazards ratios (HRs) adjusted for factors associated with both atherosclerosis and cancer. Over 5-year follow-up, there was no significant difference in the incidence of cancer between STEMI patients and the general population (HR 0.96, 95% CI 0.78-1.19). In the first 3 months after STEMI, cancer incidence was markedly higher among STEMI patients compared to the general population (HR 2.45, 95% CI 1.13-5.30), which gradually dissolved during follow-up (P-for-trend 0.004). Among STEMI patients, higher C-reactive protein, higher platelet counts, and lower hemoglobin were associated with cancer incidence during the first year after STEMI (HRs 2.93 for C-reactive protein > 10 mg/dL, 2.10 for platelet count > 300*109, and 3.92 for hemoglobin < 7.5 mmol/L). Although rare, thrombotic STEMI might be a paraneoplastic manifestation of yet to be diagnosed cancer, and is hallmarked by a pro-inflammatory status and anemia.Trial registration Registered into the Netherlands National Trial Register and WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform under shared catalogue number NTR6831.


Asunto(s)
Infarto del Miocardio , Neoplasias , Infarto del Miocardio con Elevación del ST , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Proteína C-Reactiva , Infarto del Miocardio/complicaciones , Neoplasias/epidemiología , Factores de Riesgo , Infarto del Miocardio con Elevación del ST/epidemiología , Infarto del Miocardio con Elevación del ST/diagnóstico , Resultado del Tratamiento
4.
PLoS Med ; 18(11): e1003854, 2021 11.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34813591

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the number of consultations and diagnoses in primary care and referrals to specialist care declined substantially compared to prepandemic levels. Beyond deferral of elective non-COVID-19 care by healthcare providers, it is unclear to what extent healthcare avoidance by community-dwelling individuals contributed to this decline in routine healthcare utilisation. Moreover, it is uncertain which specific symptoms were left unheeded by patients and which determinants predispose to healthcare avoidance in the general population. In this cross-sectional study, we assessed prevalence of healthcare avoidance during the pandemic from a patient perspective, including symptoms that were left unheeded, as well as determinants of healthcare avoidance. METHODS AND FINDINGS: On April 20, 2020, a paper COVID-19 survey addressing healthcare utilisation, socioeconomic factors, mental and physical health, medication use, and COVID-19-specific symptoms was sent out to 8,732 participants from the population-based Rotterdam Study (response rate 73%). All questionnaires were returned before July 10, 2020. By hand, prevalence of healthcare avoidance was subsequently verified through free text analysis of medical records of general practitioners. Odds ratios (ORs) for avoidance were determined using logistic regression models, adjusted for age, sex, and history of chronic diseases. We found that 1,142 of 5,656 included participants (20.2%) reported having avoided healthcare. Of those, 414 participants (36.3%) reported symptoms that potentially warranted urgent evaluation, including limb weakness (13.6%), palpitations (10.8%), and chest pain (10.2%). Determinants related to avoidance were older age (adjusted OR 1.14 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.08 to 1.21]), female sex (1.58 [1.38 to 1.82]), low educational level (primary education versus higher vocational/university 1.21 [1.01 to 1.46), poor self-appreciated health (per level decrease 2.00 [1.80 to 2.22]), unemployment (versus employed 2.29 [1.54 to 3.39]), smoking (1.34 [1.08 to 1.65]), concern about contracting COVID-19 (per level increase 1.28 [1.19 to 1.38]) and symptoms of depression (per point increase 1.13 [1.11 to 1.14]) and anxiety (per point increase 1.16 [1.14 to 1.18]). Study limitations included uncertainty about (perceived) severity of the reported symptoms and potentially limited generalisability given the ethnically homogeneous study population. CONCLUSIONS: In this population-based cross-sectional study, 1 in 5 individuals avoided healthcare during lockdown in the COVID-19 pandemic, often for potentially urgent symptoms. Healthcare avoidance was strongly associated with female sex, fragile self-appreciated health, and high levels of depression and anxiety. These results emphasise the need for targeted public education urging these vulnerable patients to timely seek medical care for their symptoms to mitigate major health consequences.


Asunto(s)
COVID-19/psicología , Aceptación de la Atención de Salud/psicología , Atención Primaria de Salud/tendencias , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Ansiedad/epidemiología , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles , Estudios Transversales , Atención a la Salud/estadística & datos numéricos , Atención a la Salud/tendencias , Depresión/epidemiología , Femenino , Instituciones de Salud , Personal de Salud , Humanos , Masculino , Salud Mental/tendencias , Persona de Mediana Edad , Países Bajos/epidemiología , Pandemias , Prevalencia , SARS-CoV-2/patogenicidad , Encuestas y Cuestionarios
5.
Diabet Med ; 38(10): e14639, 2021 10.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34245042

RESUMEN

AIMS: Both lifestyle factors and genetic background contribute to the development of type 2 diabetes. Estimation of the lifetime risk of diabetes based on genetic information has not been presented, and the extent to which a normal body weight can offset a high lifetime genetic risk is unknown. METHODS: We used data from 15,671 diabetes-free participants of European ancestry aged 45 years and older from the prospective population-based ARIC study and Rotterdam Study (RS). We quantified the remaining lifetime risk of diabetes stratified by genetic risk and quantified the effect of normal weight in terms of relative and lifetime risks in low, intermediate and high genetic risk. RESULTS: At age 45 years, the lifetime risk of type 2 diabetes in ARIC in the low, intermediate and high genetic risk category was 33.2%, 41.3% and 47.2%, and in RS 22.8%, 30.6% and 35.5% respectively. The absolute lifetime risk for individuals with normal weight compared to individuals with obesity was 24% lower in ARIC and 8.6% lower in RS in the low genetic risk group, 36.3% lower in ARIC and 31.3% lower in RS in the intermediate genetic risk group, and 25.0% lower in ARIC and 29.4% lower in RS in the high genetic risk group. CONCLUSIONS: Genetic variants for type 2 diabetes have value in estimating the lifetime risk of type 2 diabetes. Normal weight mitigates partly the deleterious effect of high genetic risk.


Asunto(s)
Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/etiología , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/genética , Predisposición Genética a la Enfermedad/genética , Estilo de Vida , Obesidad/complicaciones , Anciano , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/epidemiología , Femenino , Variación Genética , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Herencia Multifactorial , Riesgo , Población Blanca
6.
Fam Pract ; 38(6): 735-739, 2021 11 24.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34345918

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Anemia can be categorized into micro-, normo- or macrocytic anemia based on the mean corpuscular volume (MCV). This categorization might help to define the etiology of anemia. METHODS: The cohort consisted of patients newly diagnosed with anaemia in primary care. Seven aetiologies of anaemia were defined, based on an extensive laboratory protocol. Two assumptions were tested: (i) MCV <80 fl (microcytic) excludes vitamin B12 deficiency, folic acid deficiency, suspected haemolysis and suspected bone marrow disease as anaemia aetiology. (ii) MCV >100 fl (macrocytic) excludes iron deficiency anaemia, anaemia of chronic disease and renal anaemia as anaemia aetiology. RESULTS: Data of 4129 patients were analysed. One anaemia aetiology could be assigned to 2422 (59%) patients, more than one anaemia aetiology to 888 (22%) patients and uncertainty regarding the aetiology remained in 819 (20%) patients. MCV values were within the normal range in 3505 patients (85%). In 59 of 365 microcytic patients (16%), the anaemia aetiology was not in accordance with the first assumption. In 233 of 259 macrocytic patients (90%), the anaemia aetiology was not in accordance with the second assumption. CONCLUSIONS: Anaemia aetiologies might be ruled out incorrectly if MCV guided classification is used as a first step in the diagnostic work-up of anaemia. We recommend using a broader set of laboratory tests, independent of MCV.


Asunto(s)
Anemia , Deficiencias de Hierro , Deficiencia de Vitamina B 12 , Anemia/etiología , Índices de Eritrocitos , Humanos , Atención Primaria de Salud
7.
PLoS Med ; 17(5): e1003115, 2020 05.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32379748

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) is driven by multifaceted contributions of the immune system. However, the dysregulation of immune cells that leads to ASCVD is poorly understood. We determined the association of components of innate and adaptive immunity longitudinally with ASCVD, and assessed whether arterial calcifications play a role in this association. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Granulocyte (innate immunity) and lymphocyte (adaptive immunity) counts were determined 3 times (2002-2008, mean age 65.2 years; 2009-2013, mean age 69.0 years; and 2014-2015, mean age 78.5 years) in participants of the population-based Rotterdam Study without ASCVD at baseline. Participants were followed-up for ASCVD or death until 1 January 2015. A random sample of 2,366 underwent computed tomography at baseline to quantify arterial calcification volume in 4 vessel beds. We studied the association between immunity components with risk of ASCVD and assessed whether immunity components were related to arterial calcifications at baseline. Of 7,730 participants (59.4% women), 801 developed ASCVD during a median follow-up of 8.1 years. Having an increased granulocyte count increased ASCVD risk (adjusted hazard ratio for doubled granulocyte count [95% CI] = 1.78 [1.34-2.37], P < 0.001). Higher granulocyte counts were related to larger calcification volumes in all vessels, most prominently in the coronary arteries (mean difference in calcium volume [mm3] per SD increase in granulocyte count [95% CI] = 32.3 [9.9-54.7], P < 0.001). Respectively, the association between granulocyte count and incident coronary heart disease and stroke was partly mediated by coronary artery calcification (overall proportion mediated [95% CI] = 19.0% [-10% to 32.3%], P = 0.08) and intracranial artery calcification (14.9% [-10.9% to 19.1%], P = 0.05). A limitation of our study is that studying the etiology of ASCVD remains difficult within an epidemiological setting due to the limited availability of surrogates for innate and especially adaptive immunity. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we found that an increased granulocyte count was associated with a higher risk of ASCVD in the general population. Moreover, higher levels of granulocytes were associated with larger volumes of arterial calcification. Arterial calcifications may explain a proportion of the link between granulocytes and ASCVD.


Asunto(s)
Inmunidad Adaptativa/inmunología , Aterosclerosis/epidemiología , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/epidemiología , Inmunidad Innata/inmunología , Anciano , Aterosclerosis/inmunología , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/inmunología , Vasos Coronarios , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Estudios Prospectivos , Medición de Riesgo , Factores de Riesgo , Accidente Cerebrovascular/epidemiología , Accidente Cerebrovascular/inmunología
8.
PLoS Med ; 16(2): e1002741, 2019 02.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30716101

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are leading causes of premature disability and death worldwide. However, the lifetime risk of developing any NCD is unknown, as are the effects of shared common risk factors on this risk. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Between July 6, 1989, and January 1, 2012, we followed participants from the prospective Rotterdam Study aged 45 years and older who were free from NCDs at baseline for incident stroke, heart disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, cancer, and neurodegenerative disease. We quantified occurrence/co-occurrence and remaining lifetime risk of any NCD in a competing risk framework. We additionally studied the lifetime risk of any NCD, age at onset, and overall life expectancy for strata of 3 shared risk factors at baseline: smoking, hypertension, and overweight. During 75,354 person-years of follow-up from a total of 9,061 participants (mean age 63.9 years, 60.1% women), 814 participants were diagnosed with stroke, 1,571 with heart disease, 625 with diabetes, 1,004 with chronic respiratory disease, 1,538 with cancer, and 1,065 with neurodegenerative disease. NCDs tended to co-occur substantially, with 1,563 participants (33.7% of those who developed any NCD) diagnosed with multiple diseases during follow-up. The lifetime risk of any NCD from the age of 45 years onwards was 94.0% (95% CI 92.9%-95.1%) for men and 92.8% (95% CI 91.8%-93.8%) for women. These risks remained high (>90.0%) even for those without the 3 risk factors of smoking, hypertension, and overweight. Absence of smoking, hypertension, and overweight was associated with a 9.0-year delay (95% CI 6.3-11.6) in the age at onset of any NCD. Furthermore, the overall life expectancy for participants without these risk factors was 6.0 years (95% CI 5.2-6.8) longer than for those with all 3 risk factors. Participants aged 45 years and older without the 3 risk factors of smoking, hypertension, and overweight at baseline spent 21.6% of their remaining lifetime with 1 or more NCDs, compared to 31.8% of their remaining life for participants with all of these risk factors at baseline. This difference corresponds to a 2-year compression of morbidity of NCDs. Limitations of this study include potential residual confounding, unmeasured changes in risk factor profiles during follow-up, and potentially limited generalisability to different healthcare settings and populations not of European descent. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that in this western European community, 9 out of 10 individuals aged 45 years and older develop an NCD during their remaining lifetime. Among those individuals who develop an NCD, at least a third are subsequently diagnosed with multiple NCDs. Absence of 3 common shared risk factors is associated with compression of morbidity of NCDs. These findings underscore the importance of avoidance of these common shared risk factors to reduce the premature morbidity and mortality attributable to NCDs.


Asunto(s)
Esperanza de Vida/tendencias , Multimorbilidad/tendencias , Enfermedades no Transmisibles/epidemiología , Vigilancia de la Población , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Estudios de Cohortes , Femenino , Estudios de Seguimiento , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Países Bajos/epidemiología , Enfermedades no Transmisibles/terapia , Vigilancia de la Población/métodos , Estudios Prospectivos , Factores de Riesgo
9.
J Neurol Neurosurg Psychiatry ; 90(2): 148-156, 2019 02.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30279211

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the burden of common neurological disease in older adults in terms of lifetime risks, including their co-occurrence and preventive potential, within a competing risk framework. METHODS: Within the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study, we studied lifetime risk of dementia, stroke and parkinsonism between 1990 and 2016. Among 12 102 individuals (57.7% women) aged ≥45 years free from these diseases at baseline, we studied co-occurrence, and quantified the combined, and disease-specific remaining lifetime risk of these diseases at various ages for men and women separately. We also projected effects on lifetime risk of hypothetical preventive strategies that delay disease onset by 1, 2 and 3 years, respectively. RESULTS: During follow-up of up to 26 years (156 088 person-years of follow-up), 1489 individuals were diagnosed with dementia, 1285 with stroke and 263 with parkinsonism. Of these individuals, 438 (14.6%) were diagnosed with multiple diseases. Women were almost twice as likely as men to be diagnosed with both stroke and dementia during their lifetime. The lifetime risk for any of these diseases at age 45 was 48.2% (95% CI 47.1% to 51.5%) in women and 36.2% (35.1% to 39.3%) in men. This difference was driven by a higher risk of dementia as the first manifesting disease in women than in men (25.9% vs 13.7%; p<0.001), while this was similar for stroke (19.0%vs18.9% in men) and parkinsonism (3.3% vs 3.6% in men). Preventive strategies that delay disease onset with 1 to 3 years could theoretically reduce lifetime risk for developing any of these diseases by 20%-50%. CONCLUSION: One in two women and one in three men will develop dementia, stroke or parkinsonism during their life. These findings strengthen the call for prioritising the focus on preventive interventions at population level which could substantially reduce the burden of common neurological diseases in the ageing population.


Asunto(s)
Demencia/epidemiología , Trastornos Parkinsonianos/epidemiología , Accidente Cerebrovascular/epidemiología , Factores de Edad , Anciano , Demencia/diagnóstico , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Países Bajos , Trastornos Parkinsonianos/diagnóstico , Estudios Prospectivos , Factores de Riesgo , Factores Sexuales , Accidente Cerebrovascular/diagnóstico
11.
PLoS Med ; 15(3): e1002539, 2018 03.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29558473

RESUMEN

In a Perspective, M. Afran Ikram and Maarten Leening discuss the evolving approaches to determining cardiovascular risk.


Asunto(s)
Presión Sanguínea , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares , Colesterol , Humanos , Prevención Primaria , Factores de Riesgo
12.
Eur Radiol ; 28(7): 3082-3087, 2018 Jul.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29383526

RESUMEN

Non-contrast cardiac computed tomography in order to obtain the coronary artery calcium score has become an established diagnostic procedure in the clinical setting, and is commonly employed in clinical and population-based research. This state-of-the-art review paper highlights the potential gain in information that can be obtained from the non-contrast coronary calcium scans without any necessary modifications to the scan protocol. This includes markers of cardio-metabolic health, such as the amount of epicardial fat and liver fat, but also markers of general health including bone density and lung density. Finally, this paper addresses the importance of incidental findings and of radiation exposure accompanying imaging with non-contrast cardiac computed tomography. Despite the fact that coronary calcium scan protocols have been optimized for the visualization of coronary calcification in terms image quality and radiation exposure, it is important for radiologists, cardiologists and medical specialists in the field of preventive medicine to acknowledge that numerous additional markers of cardio-metabolic health and general health can be readily identified on a coronary calcium scan. KEY POINTS: • The coronary artery calcium score substantially increased the use of cardiac CT. • Cardio-metabolic and general health markers may be derived without changes to the scan protocol. • Those include epicardial fat, aortic valve calcifications, liver fat, bone density, and lung density. • Clinicians must be aware of this potential additional yield from non-contrast cardiac CT.


Asunto(s)
Calcinosis/diagnóstico por imagen , Enfermedad de la Arteria Coronaria/diagnóstico por imagen , Tejido Adiposo/diagnóstico por imagen , Tejido Adiposo/patología , Válvula Aórtica/diagnóstico por imagen , Válvula Aórtica/patología , Estenosis de la Válvula Aórtica/diagnóstico por imagen , Densidad Ósea/fisiología , Calcio , Angiografía Coronaria/métodos , Vasos Coronarios , Humanos , Pericardio/diagnóstico por imagen , Pericardio/patología , Medición de Riesgo/métodos , Tomografía Computarizada por Rayos X/métodos
13.
Eur J Epidemiol ; 33(7): 645-655, 2018 Jul.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29740780

RESUMEN

To systematically review the literature for dementia prediction models for use in the general population and externally validate their performance in a head-to-head comparison. We selected four prediction models for validation: CAIDE, BDSI, ANU-ADRI and DRS. From the Rotterdam Study, 6667 non-demented individuals aged 55 years and older were assessed between 1997 and 2001. Subsequently, participants were followed for dementia until 1 January, 2015. For each individual, we computed the risk of dementia using the reported scores from each prediction model. We used the C-statistic and calibration plots to assess the performance of each model to predict 10-year risk of all-cause dementia. For comparisons, we also evaluated discriminative accuracy using only the age component of these risk scores for each model separately. During 75,581 person-years of follow-up, 867 participants developed dementia. C-statistics for 10-year dementia risk prediction were 0.55 (95% CI 0.53-0.58) for CAIDE, 0.78 (0.76-0.81) for BDSI, 0.75 (0.74-0.77) for ANU-ADRI, and 0.81 (0.78-0.83) for DRS. Calibration plots showed that predicted risks were too extreme with underestimation at low risk and overestimation at high risk. Importantly, in all models age alone already showed nearly identical discriminative accuracy as the full model (C-statistics: 0.55 (0.53-0.58) for CAIDE, 0.81 (0.78-0.83) for BDSI, 0.77 (0.75-0.79) for ANU-ADRI, and 0.81 (0.78-0.83) for DRS). In this study, we found high variability in discriminative ability for predicting dementia in an elderly, community-dwelling population. All models showed similar discriminative ability when compared to prediction based on age alone. These findings highlight the urgent need for updated or new models to predict dementia risk in the general population.


Asunto(s)
Demencia/diagnóstico , Demencia/epidemiología , Anciano , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Países Bajos/epidemiología , Reproducibilidad de los Resultados , Medición de Riesgo
14.
Eur J Epidemiol ; 33(4): 403-413, 2018 04.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29236195

RESUMEN

Pulmonary hypertension is associated with increased mortality and morbidity in the elderly population. Heart failure is a common cause of pulmonary hypertension. Yet, the relation between left heart parameters reflective of subclinical cardiac dysfunction and increased filling pressures, and pulmonary arterial pressures in the elderly population remains elusive. Within the population-based Rotterdam Study, 2592 unselected participants with a mean age of 72.6 years (61.4% women) had complete echocardiography data available. We studied the cross-sectional associations of left heart structure and systolic and diastolic function with echocardiographically measured pulmonary artery systolic pressure. Mean pulmonary artery systolic pressure was 25.4 mmHg. After multivariable-adjustment measures of both structure and function were independently associated with pulmonary artery systolic pressure: E/A ratio [0.63 mmHg (95% CI 0.35-0.91) per 1-SD increase], left atrial diameter [0.79 mmHg (0.50-1.09) per 1-SD increase], E/E' ratio [1.27 mmHg (0.92-1.61) per 1-SD increase], left ventricular volume [0.62 mmHg (0.25-0.98) per 1-SD increase], fractional shortening [0.45 mmHg (0.17-0.74) per 1-SD increase], aortic root diameter [- 0.43 mmHg (- 0.72 to - 0.14) per 1-SD increase], mitral valve deceleration time [- 0.31 mmHg (- 0.57 to - 0.05) per 1-SD increase], and E' [1.04 mmHg (0.66-1.42) per 1-SD increase]. Results did not materially differ when restricting the analyses to participants free of symptoms of shortness of breath. Structural and functional echocardiographic parameters of subclinical cardiac dysfunction and increased filling pressures are associated with pulmonary arterial pressures in the unselected general ageing population.


Asunto(s)
Presión Arterial/fisiología , Ecocardiografía , Hipertensión Pulmonar/diagnóstico por imagen , Hipertensión Pulmonar/fisiopatología , Arteria Pulmonar/fisiología , Disfunción Ventricular Izquierda/diagnóstico por imagen , Disfunción Ventricular Izquierda/fisiopatología , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Presión Sanguínea , Estudios Transversales , Femenino , Insuficiencia Cardíaca/diagnóstico , Insuficiencia Cardíaca/fisiopatología , Humanos , Masculino , Vigilancia de la Población , Estudios Prospectivos , Sístole/fisiología
15.
Eur Respir J ; 49(6)2017 06.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28619955

RESUMEN

A pulmonary artery to aorta ratio (PA:A) >1 is a proxy of pulmonary hypertension. It is not known whether this measure carries prognostic information in the general population and in individuals with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).Between 2003 and 2006, 2197 participants from the population-based Rotterdam Study (mean±sd age 69.7±6.7 years; 51.3% female), underwent cardiac computed tomography (CT) scanning with PA:A quantification, defined as the ratio between the diameters of the pulmonary artery and the aorta. COPD was diagnosed based on spirometry or clinical presentation and obstructive lung function measured by a treating physician. Cox regression was used to investigate the risk of mortality.We observed no association between 1-sd increase of PA:A and mortality in the general population. Larger PA:A was associated with an increased risk of mortality in individuals with COPD, particularly in moderate-to-severe COPD (hazard ratio 1.36, 95% CI 1.03-1.79). We demonstrated that the risk of mortality in COPD was driven by severe COPD, and that this risk increased with decreasing diffusing capacity.Larger PA:A is not associated with mortality in an older general population, but is an independent determinant of mortality in moderate-to-severe COPD. Measuring PA:A in CT scans obtained for other indications may yield important prognostic information in individuals with COPD.


Asunto(s)
Aorta , Hipertensión Pulmonar , Arteria Pulmonar , Capacidad de Difusión Pulmonar , Enfermedad Pulmonar Obstructiva Crónica , Enfermedad Cardiopulmonar , Anciano , Aorta/diagnóstico por imagen , Aorta/fisiopatología , Estudios de Cohortes , Femenino , Humanos , Hipertensión Pulmonar/diagnóstico , Hipertensión Pulmonar/fisiopatología , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Países Bajos/epidemiología , Pronóstico , Arteria Pulmonar/diagnóstico por imagen , Arteria Pulmonar/fisiopatología , Capacidad de Difusión Pulmonar/métodos , Capacidad de Difusión Pulmonar/fisiología , Enfermedad Pulmonar Obstructiva Crónica/complicaciones , Enfermedad Pulmonar Obstructiva Crónica/diagnóstico , Enfermedad Pulmonar Obstructiva Crónica/mortalidad , Enfermedad Pulmonar Obstructiva Crónica/fisiopatología , Enfermedad Cardiopulmonar/diagnóstico , Enfermedad Cardiopulmonar/etiología , Enfermedad Cardiopulmonar/fisiopatología , Medición de Riesgo , Factores de Riesgo , Índice de Severidad de la Enfermedad , Espirometría/métodos , Tomografía Computarizada por Rayos X/métodos
17.
J Card Fail ; 22(1): 17-23, 2016 Jan.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26093333

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Subclinical cardiac dysfunction has been associated with increased mortality, and heart failure increases the risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD). Less well known is whether subclinical cardiac dysfunction is also a risk factor for SCD. Our objective was to assess the association between echocardiographic parameters and SCD in a community-dwelling population free of heart failure. METHODS AND RESULTS: We computed hazard ratios (HRs) for left atrium diameter, left ventricular (LV) end-diastolic dimension, LV end-systolic dimension, LV mass, qualitative LV systolic function, LV fractional shortening, and diastolic function. During a median follow-up of 6.3 years in 4,686 participants, 68 participants died because of SCD. Significant associations with SCD were observed for qualitative LV systolic function and LV fractional shortening. For moderate/poor qualitative LV systolic function, the HR for SCD was 2.54 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.10-5.87). Each standard deviation decrease in LV fractional shortening was associated with an HR of 1.36 (95% CI 1.09-1.70). CONCLUSIONS: Subclinical abnormalities in LV systolic function were associated with SCD risk in this general population. Although prediction of SCD remains difficult and traditional cardiovascular risk factors are of greatest importance, this knowledge might guide future directions to prevent SCD in persons with subclinical cardiac dysfunction.


Asunto(s)
Enfermedades Asintomáticas/epidemiología , Muerte Súbita Cardíaca/epidemiología , Disfunción Ventricular Izquierda/diagnóstico , Disfunción Ventricular Izquierda/epidemiología , Anciano , Muerte Súbita Cardíaca/prevención & control , Diástole , Ecocardiografía , Femenino , Insuficiencia Cardíaca/diagnóstico , Insuficiencia Cardíaca/fisiopatología , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Países Bajos/epidemiología , Modelos de Riesgos Proporcionales , Estudios Prospectivos , Medición de Riesgo , Factores de Riesgo , Volumen Sistólico , Sístole
19.
Eur J Clin Pharmacol ; 72(2): 211-8, 2016 Feb.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26546336

RESUMEN

PURPOSE: Antidepressants, specifically selective serotonin reuptake-inhibiting antidepressants (SSRIs), decrease platelet activation and aggregation in in vitro experiments and could therefore decrease the risk of myocardial infarction (MI). However, prior studies addressing this hypothesis showed contradictory results. Our purpose was to investigate the association between the use of any antidepressant drug and incident MI among middle-aged and older adults. METHODS: We embedded a case-control study in the prospective Rotterdam Study (1991-2011). Controls were matched to MI cases based on sex and age at the same calendar date, and confounding factors were taken into account as time-varying covariates. The relative risk of MI during current and past use of an antidepressant was analyzed with conditional logistic regression with never use of antidepressant drugs as the reference category. RESULTS: A total of 744 out of a cohort of 9499 study participants developed MI during follow-up. After statistical adjustment for traditional cardiovascular risk factors and depression, current use of any antidepressant was associated with a lower risk of MI (odds ratio (OR), 0.71; 95 % confidence interval (CI), 0.51-0.98) compared with never use of any antidepressant. SSRI use showed the lowest relative risk (OR, 0.65; 95 % CI, 0.41-1.02), albeit marginally not statistically significant. Past use of any of the antidepressant classes was not associated with a lower risk of MI. CONCLUSIONS: Current use of antidepressants was associated with a lower risk of MI. Of the different classes, the use of SSRIs showed the lowest risk of MI, and therefore confirming the research hypothesis.


Asunto(s)
Antidepresivos/uso terapéutico , Infarto del Miocardio/epidemiología , Anciano , Estudios de Casos y Controles , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Países Bajos/epidemiología , Oportunidad Relativa , Estudios Prospectivos , Riesgo , Inhibidores Selectivos de la Recaptación de Serotonina/uso terapéutico
20.
Psychosom Med ; 77(7): 775-83, 2015 Sep.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26186434

RESUMEN

OBJECTIVES: The increased popularity of mind-body practices highlights the need to explore their potential effects. We determined the cross-sectional association between mind-body practices and cardiometabolic risk factors. METHODS: We used data from 2579 participants free of cardiovascular disease from the Rotterdam Study (2009-2013). A structured home-based interview was used to evaluate engagement in mind-body practices including meditation, yoga, self-prayer, breathing exercises, or other forms of mind-body practice. We regressed engagement in mind-body practices on cardiometabolic risk factors (body mass index, blood pressure, and fasting blood levels of cholesterol, triglycerides, and glucose) and presence of metabolic syndrome. All analyses were adjusted for age, sex, educational level, smoking, alcohol consumption, (in)activities in daily living, grief, and depressive symptoms. RESULTS: Fifteen percent of the participants engaged in a form of mind-body practice. Those who did mind-body practices had significantly lower body mass index (ß = -0.84 kg/m, 95% confidence interval [CI] = -1.30 to -0.38, p < .001), log-transformed triglyceride levels (ß = -0.02, 95% CI = -0.04 to -0.001, p = .037), and log-transformed fasting glucose levels (ß = -0.01, 95% CI = -0.02 to -0.004, p = .004). Metabolic syndrome was less common among individuals who engaged in mind-body practices (odds ratio = 0.71, 95% CI = 0.54-0.95, p = .019). CONCLUSIONS: Individuals who do mind-body practices have a favorable cardiometabolic risk profile compared with those who do not. However, the cross-sectional design of this study does not allow for causal inference and prospective, and intervention studies are needed to elucidate the association between mind-body practices and cardiometabolic processes.


Asunto(s)
Glucemia/análisis , Índice de Masa Corporal , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/sangre , Síndrome Metabólico/sangre , Terapias Mente-Cuerpo/estadística & datos numéricos , Triglicéridos/sangre , Anciano , Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/epidemiología , HDL-Colesterol/sangre , LDL-Colesterol/sangre , Estudios Transversales , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Síndrome Metabólico/epidemiología , Persona de Mediana Edad , Países Bajos/epidemiología , Factores de Riesgo
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