Development and validation of a risk prediction model for hospital admission in COVID-19 patients presenting to primary care.

BACKGROUND: There is a paucity of prognostic models for COVID-19 that are usable for in-office patient assessment in general practice (GP). OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a risk prediction model for hospital admission with readily available predictors. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study linking GP records from 8 COVID-19 centres and 55 general practices in the Netherlands to hospital admission records. The development cohort spanned March to June 2020, the validation cohort March to June 2021. The primary outcome was hospital admission within 14 days. We used geographic leave-region-out cross-validation in the development cohort and temporal validation in the validation cohort. RESULTS: In the development cohort, 4,806 adult patients with COVID-19 consulted their GP (median age 56, 56% female); in the validation cohort 830 patients did (median age 56, 52% female). In the development and validation cohort respectively, 292 (6.1%) and 126 (15.2%) were admitted to the hospital within 14 days, respectively. A logistic regression model based on sex, smoking, symptoms, vital signs and comorbidities predicted hospital admission with a c-index of 0.84 (95% CI 0.83 to 0.86) at geographic cross-validation and 0.79 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.83) at temporal validation, and was reasonably well calibrated (intercept -0.08, 95% CI -0.98 to 0.52, slope 0.89, 95% CI 0.71 to 1.07 at geographic cross-validation and intercept 0.02, 95% CI -0.21 to 0.24, slope 0.82, 95% CI 0.64 to 1.00 at temporal validation). CONCLUSION: We derived a risk model using readily available variables at GP assessment to predict hospital admission for COVID-19. It performed accurately across regions and waves. Further validation on cohorts with acquired immunity and newer SARS-CoV-2 variants is recommended.

A general practice prediction model based on signs and symptoms of COVID-19 patients reliably predicted hospitalisation.The model performed well in second-wave data with other dominant variants and changed testing and vaccination policies.In an emerging pandemic, GP data can be leveraged to develop prognostic models for decision support and to predict hospitalisation rates.

Vitamin insufficiency after surgery for oesophagogastric neoplasms: a study protocol for a prospective intervention study.

INTRODUCTION: Oesophageal cancer (EC) and gastric cancer (GC) are among the top 10 cancers worldwide. Both diseases impact the nutritional status of patients and their Quality of Life (QoL). Preoperative malnutrition is reported in 42%-80%. However, studies investigating postoperative nutritional status are limited, and postoperative identification and treatment of micronutrient and macronutrient deficiencies are currently lacking in (inter-)national guidelines. The aim of this study is to identify and target micronutrient deficiencies after surgery for oesophagogastric neoplasms. METHODS: This is a single-centre prospective intervention trial performed in Zuyderland Medical Centre. 248 patients who underwent oesophagectomy (n=124) or (sub)total gastrectomy (n=124) from 2011 until 2022 will be included. Both groups will receive Calcium Soft Chew D3 and a multivitamin supplement (MVS) specifically developed according to the type of operation patients underwent; the oesophagectomy group will receive Multi-E and the gastrectomy group will receive Multi-G. The MVSs will be taken once daily and Calcium Soft Chew D3 two times per day. Supplementation will start after baseline measurements. At baseline (T0), blood withdrawal for micronutrient analysis and faecal elastase-1 analysis for exocrine pancreatic insufficiency (EPI) will be performed. Additionally, patients will receive questionnaires regarding QoL and dietary behaviour. After 180 days of supplementation (T1), baseline measurements will be repeated, and the supplement tolerance questionnaire will be completed. Measurements will also be conducted after 360 days (T2) and after 720 days (T3) of supplementation. The main study parameter is micronutrient deficiency (yes/no) for all measurements. Secondary parameters include occurrence of EPI (n, %), diarrhoea (n, %), steatorrhoea (n, %) or bloating (n, %), time between surgery and start of supplementation (mean in months), and QoL at all time points. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study was approved by the Zuyderland Medical Centre Ethics Committee, Heerlen, the Netherlands. The findings will be disseminated through scientific congresses and in peer-reviewed journals. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT05281380.

Invasive Pulmonary Aspergillosis with Marked Eosinophilia as a Unique Presentation of Chronic Granulomatous Disease.

Background: Chronic granulomatous disease (CGD) is a rare immunodeficiency disorder resulting in phagocytic cell dysfunction. It is characterized by deficient cellular immunity against bacteria and fungi, and an excessive inflammatory response resulting in granuloma formation. It manifests, usually in early childhood, with recurrent bacterial and fungal infections or inflammatory complications. The infections, such as invasive pulmonary aspergillosis, can be life-threatening. Case description: Our patient was a 40-year-old man with no pulmonary history who presented with bilateral pulmonary nodules and pronounced eosinophilia in peripheral blood and bronchoalveolar lavage fluid, mimicking eosinophilic pneumonia. During treatment with corticosteroids, the patient deteriorated clinically and radiographically. Extensive investigations failed to provide a diagnosis. A lung biopsy demonstrated the presence of granulomas and Aspergillus fumigatus hyphae. Advanced screening to detect underlying immunodeficiency revealed CGD. Discussion: This case report describes a unique first presentation of CGD. It reminds physicians of the possibility of CGD as an underlying immune disorder in invasive aspergillosis and highlights the challenges of diagnosing invasive pulmonary aspergillosis. We discuss the diagnostic pitfalls of this case and propose a diagnostic work-up for eosinophilic lung disease. LEARNING POINTS: Pulmonary aspergillosis can present as eosinophilic pneumonia and should be included in the differential diagnosis of eosinophilic lung disease.In case of invasive pulmonary aspergillosis, investigation for chronic granulomatous disease should be considered.Chronic granulomatous disease in adults is probably underdiagnosed because of its variable clinical presentations.

A novel haemocytometric COVID-19 prognostic score developed and validated in an observational multicentre European hospital-based study.

COVID-19 induces haemocytometric changes. Complete blood count changes, including new cell activation parameters, from 982 confirmed COVID-19 adult patients from 11 European hospitals were retrospectively analysed for distinctive patterns based on age, gender, clinical severity, symptom duration, and hospital days. The observed haemocytometric patterns formed the basis to develop a multi-haemocytometric-parameter prognostic score to predict, during the first three days after presentation, which patients will recover without ventilation or deteriorate within a two-week timeframe, needing intensive care or with fatal outcome. The prognostic score, with ROC curve AUC at baseline of 0.753 (95% CI 0.723-0.781) increasing to 0.875 (95% CI 0.806-0.926) on day 3, was superior to any individual parameter at distinguishing between clinical severity. Findings were confirmed in a validation cohort. Aim is that the score and haemocytometry results are simultaneously provided by analyser software, enabling wide applicability of the score as haemocytometry is commonly requested in COVID-19 patients.