Assessment of excess medical costs for persons with type 2 diabetes according to age groups: an analysis of German health insurance claims data.

AIM: This cross-sectional study used a large nationwide claims data set to assess the excess medical costs of people with type 2 diabetes according to age group in 2015. METHODS: Data from 291 709 people with diabetes and 291 709 age- and sex-matched controls were analysed. Total costs (expressed as 2015 euros) of outpatient and inpatient services, medication, rehabilitation, and the provision of aids and appliances were examined. Overall and age-stratified excess costs of people with diabetes were estimated using gamma regression with a log-link. RESULTS: Overall, the estimated total direct costs of a person with type 2 diabetes are approximately double those of a person without diabetes: €4727 vs. €2196, respectively. Absolute excess costs were approximately the same in all age groups (around €2500), however, relative excess costs of persons with diabetes were much higher in younger (~ 334% for < 50 years) than in older age groups (~ 156% for ≥ 80 years). Regional costs, both absolute and excess, partly differed from the national level. CONCLUSIONS: This study complements and updates previous studies on the excess medical costs of people with diabetes in Germany. The results indicate the importance of preventing the development of type 2 diabetes, especially in younger age groups. Longitudinal and regional studies examining changes in prevalence and the development of excess costs in groups with different types of diabetes, and according to age, would be of interest to validate our findings and better understand the avoidable burden of having diabetes.

Health related quality of life associated with extreme obesity in adolescents - results from the baseline evaluation of the YES-study.

BACKGROUND: Obesity can significantly reduce health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and may lead to numerous health problems even in youths. This study aimed to investigate whether HRQoL varies among youths with obesity depending on grade of obesity and other factors. METHODS: For the Youths with Extreme obesity Study (YES) (2012-2014), a prospective multicenter cohort study, a baseline sample of 431 obese and extremely obese adolescents and young adults (age 14 to 24 years, BMI ≥30 kg/m2) was recruited at four German university medical centers and one job center. Obesity grade groups (OGG) were defined according to BMI (OGG I: 30-34.9 kg/m2, OGG II: 35-39.9 kg/m2, OGG III (extreme obesity): ≥40 kg/m2). HRQoL was measured with the Euroqol-5D-3 L (EQ-5D-3 L), DISABKIDS chronic generic (DCGM-31) and the KINDLR obesity module. Differences between OGGs were assessed with logistic and linear regression models, adjusting for age, sex, and study center in the base model. In a second regression analysis, we included other characteristics to identify possible determinants of HRQoL. RESULTS: Three hundred fifty-two adolescents (mean age: 16.6 (±2.4), mean BMI: 39.1 (±7.5) kg/ m2) with available HRQoL data were analysed. HRQoL of youths in all OGGs was markedly lower than reference values of non-obese adolescents. Adjusting for age and sex, HRQoL of youths in OGG III significantly impaired compared to OGG I. Youths in OGG III were 2.15 times more likely to report problems with mobility in the EQ-5D-3 L than youths in OGG I. A mean difference of 9.7 and 6.6 points between OGG III and I were found for DCGM-31 and KINDL respectively and 5.1 points between OGG II and I for DCGM-31. Including further variables into the regression models, showed that HRQoL measured by DCGM-31 was significantly different between OGGs. Otherwise, female sex and having more than 4 h of daily screen time were also associated with lower HRQoL measured by DCGM-31 and KINDL. CONCLUSION: HRQoL of adolescents with obesity is reduced, but HRQoL of adolescents with extreme obesity is particularly affected. Larger and longitudinal studies are necessary to understand the relation of extreme obesity and HRQoL, and the impact of other lifestyle or socioeconomic factors. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT01625325; German Clinical Trials Register (DRKS) DRKS00004172.

[Cost-Effectiveness of the 21 Gene Assay in Patients with Node-Positive Breast Cancer]. / Wirtschaftlichkeit des 21 Gene Tests in der Behandlung von Patientinnen mit nodal-positivem Mammakarzinom.

Aim: Breast cancer is the most common type of cancer for women. Most guidelines recommend patients with lymph-node positive (LN+) early stage breast cancer to undergo adjuvant chemotherapy to prevent or delay distant recurrence. This may lead to frequent, general usage of chemotherapy accompanied with high costs and side effects. The Oncotype DX, also called 21 Gene Assay, by Genomic Health is a genomic test which predicts the individual risk of breast cancer recurrence as well as the benefits of chemotherapy. Economic analyses have indicated the cost-effectiveness of the 21 Gene Assay for patients with LN- breast cancer. This paper discusses recent research on the cost-effectiveness of using this assay for patients with LN+ breast cancer. Methods: A systematic literature research was undertaken using the following databases: Pubmed, Embase, Business Source Complete and EconLit. Studies found were analysed for study design, parameters, and analysis of uncertainty. The transferability of the results to Germany was examined using a list of criteria. Results: 7 relevant economic analyses were identified. Incremental cost-utility ratios ranged from cost-savings of € 3 548 per patient to additional costs of € 9 113 per QALY gained. The transferability of the results to Germany is limited particularly by differences in the medical cost approach, in absolute and relative prices in health-care, and by practice variation. Conclusion: There is evidence that the cost-utility of the assay when used for LN+ breast cancer is basically comparable to that for the use with the LN- type. More precise results for Germany would require valid data on the risk of recurrence as well as on the description and evaluation of health-related quality of life of patients.

[Memorandum 'Development of health services research in Bavaria from the perspective of the Bavarian State Working Group 'Health Services Research (LAGeV)': status quo - potential - strategies']. / Memorandum "Weiterentwicklung der Gesundheitsversorgungsforschung in Bayern aus Sicht der Landesarbeitsgemeinschaft Gesundheitsversorgungsforschung: Status quo - Entwicklungspotenziale - Strategien".

The aim of the memorandum on the development of health services research (HSR) in Bavaria is to operationalise the global objectives of the State Working Group "Health Services Research" (LAGeV) and to collectively define future topics, specific implementation steps, methods as well as ways of working for the future course of the LAGeV. The LAGeV is an expert committee that integrates and links the competencies of different actors from science, politics and health care regarding HSR and facilitates their cooperation. The memorandum is based on an explorative survey among the LAGeV members, which identified the status quo of health services research in Bavaria, potential for development, important constraints, promoting factors, specific recommendations as well as future topics for the further development of HSR in Bavaria. From the perspective of the LAGeV members, the 12 most important future topics are: 1) Interface and networking research, 2) Innovative health care concepts, 3) Health care for multimorbid patients, 4)Health care for chronically ill patients, 5) Evaluation of innovations, processes and technologies, 6) Patient orientation and user focus, 7) Social and regional inequalities in health care, 8) Health care for mentally ill patients, 9) Indicators of health care quality, 10) Regional needs planning, 11) Practical effectiveness of HSR and 12) Scientific use of routine data. Potential for development of HSR in Bavaria lies a) in the promotion of networking and sustainable structures, b) the establishment of an HSR information platform that bundles information and results in regard to current topics and aims to facilitate cooperation as well as c) in the initiation of measures and projects. The latter ought to pinpoint health care challenges and make recommendations regarding the improvement of health care and its quality. The cooperation and networking structures that were established with the LAGeV should be continuously expanded and be used to work on priority topics in order to achieve the global objectives of the LAGeV.

[Costs of illness for asthma and COPD in adults in Germany]. / Krankheitskosten für Asthma und COPD bei Erwachsenen in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland.

UNLABELLED: BACKGROUND; Asthma and COPD have a high and growing epidemiological impact worldwide, and it is often indicated that significant economic costs are linked to this. The aim of this review is to estimate the cost-of-illness for both diseases for adults in Germany. METHODS: A systematic search of Pubmed, Embase, EconLit and Business Source Complete was performed for the years 1995-2012 to identify German cost-of-illness studies for asthma and COPD in German or English language. 6 studies for asthma, 7 studies for COPD and 1 for both diseases met the inclusion criteria. The results of the identified studies were extrapolated to 2010 prices and compared within the same disease. RESULTS: In spite of the heterogeneity in methodology and results, medication was identified as the most important component of direct costs and work loss as the most important component of indirect costs. All in all, the estimated costs per case of illness and year for asthma sum up to 445 to 2 543 € and for COPD to 1 212 to 3 492 €. CONCLUSION: The analysed cost-of-illness studies confirm that asthma and COPD are costly but results vary markedly. COPD due to its higher costs per case and its similar prevalence causes higher macroeconomic costs. Our results emphasise the economic relevance of prevention and disease management for these lung diseases.

[Direct costs of diabetes mellitus in Germany: first estimation of the differences related to educational level]. / Direkte Krankheitskosten von Diabetes mellitus in Deutschland: erste Abschätzung der Unterschiede zwischen Bildungsgruppen.

OBJECTIVE: There are many studies on health inequalities, but these are rarely combined with cost-of-illness analyses. If the cost-of-illness were to be calculated for the individual status groups, it would be possible to assess the economic potential of preventive measures aimed specifically at people from low status groups. The objective of this article is to demonstrate for the first time the preventive potential by taking the example of diabetes mellitus (DM) from an economic perspective. METHODS: Based on a systematic literature review, the average direct costs per patient with DM were assessed. Then, the prevalence of DM among adults with different educational levels was estimated based on the nationwide survey 'German Health Update' (GEDA), conducted by the Robert Koch-Institute in Germany in 2009. Finally, the cost and prevalence data were used to calculate the direct costs for each educational level. RESULTS: The direct costs of DM amount to about 13.1 billion € per year; about 35% of these costs can be attributed to patients with a low educational level. Thus, their share of the total costs is about 67% higher than their share of the total population. If the prevalence in the group with 'low educational level' (14.8%) could be reduced to the prevalence in the group with 'middle educational level' (7.9%), this would save about 2.2 billion (about 16.5%) € of direct costs. DISCUSSION: The analysis provides a first estimate of the potential savings from an effective status specific prevention programme. However, the direct costs per patient used were only an average for all people with DM, as a breakdown by educational level was not available. Since education can also affect health behaviour and compliance, which are also determinants of cost, the analyses presented here are probably conservative.

[Health status of adults in Germany: results from a representative survey using the EuroQol 5D (EQ-5D)]. / Gesundheitszustand bei Erwachsenen in Deutschland: Ergebnisse einer repräsentativen Befragung mit dem EuroQol 5D (EQ-5D).

OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY: Over the past few years, the discussion on health-related quality of life (HRQL) has increased considerably in Germany as well. HRQL can be assessed by different dimensions of health, and it can be summarised by a single numerical value. This study intends to describe the HRQL of German adults based on individual valuations, to compare the results with those of an earlier study, to investigate the impact of using valuations based on given health states, and as an example of use to analyse socioeconomic differences using the EQ-5D. METHODS: The analyses are based on a representative survey in Germany, conducted by the Wort und Bild Verlag in 2006. HRQL has been assessed by the EuroQol 5D (EQ-5D). In the descriptive part, health was assessed by five descriptive questions. Next, valuations of overall health were elicitated from survey participants using a visual analogue scale (VAS) and, alternatively, taken from a different sample based on the time trade off (TTO) method. Five independent variables were included in the analysis: age, sex, educational level, per capita income, employment status. The results are compared with previous German evidence from the ESEMeD study. RESULTS: Data were retrieved from 1 966 persons (aged 20 years or above); the response rate was 73%. In the descriptive part of the EQ-5D, the prevalence of some problems was especially high in the dimension pain/discomfort (31.9%). In contrast, the prevalence of extreme problems was very low in all five dimensions. The mean VAS value was 79.2. Considering the five dimensions, the VAS values and the TTO score, HRQL was mostly higher for men than for women, and mostly higher for the upper educational groups (as compared with the lower educational groups). Very similar associations were found when the independent variables are mutually controlled for, in logistic regressions (dependent variables: five dimensions) as well as in linear regressions (dependent variables: VAS value or TTO score). The linear regressions also showed that HRQL increases with increasing per capita income. DISCUSSION: The EQ-5D provides a simple instrument for assessing HRQL. It can well detect health inequalities, and the results can be replicated in different studies. More research is needed on the techniques to valuate HRQL in population studies. The EQ-5D provides a tool to assess the HRQL of the German population. New reference figures have been presented for this, and it has been shown how health economic tools and research on health inequalities can be integrated.

Informatics and medicine--from molecules to populations.

OBJECTIVES: To clarify challenges and research topics for informatics in health and to describe new approaches for interdisciplinary collaboration and education. METHODS: Research challenges and possible solutions were elaborated by scientists of two universities using an interdisciplinary approach, in a series of meetings over several months. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: In order to translate scientific results from bench to bedside and further into an evidence-based and efficient health system, intensive collaboration is needed between experts from medicine, biology, informatics, engineering, public health, as well as social and economic sciences. Research challenges can be attributed to four areas: bioinformatics and systems biology, biomedical engineering and informatics, health informatics and individual healthcare, and public health informatics. In order to bridge existing gaps between different disciplines and cultures, we suggest focusing on interdisciplinary education, taking an integrative approach and starting interdisciplinary practice at early stages of education.

[Decisions in case of "problematic" cost-effectiveness ratios based on the example of a clinical trial in rehabilitation care]. / Entscheidungen bei "schwierigen" Kosteneffektivitätsrelationen am Beispiel eines klinischen Versuchs aus der Rehabilitation.

PURPOSE: Economic assessment of an additional psychological intervention in the rehabilitation of patients with chronic low-back pain and evaluation of results by decision makers. METHODS: Piggy-back cost-utility analysis of a randomised clinical trial, including a bootstrap analysis. Costs were measured by using the cost accounting systems of the rehabilitation clinics and by surveying patients. Health-related quality of life was measured using the EQ-5D. Implications of different representations of the decision problem and corresponding decision rules concerning the cost-effectiveness plane are discussed. RESULTS: As compared with the 126 patients of the control arm, the 98 patients in the intervention arm gained 3.5 days in perfect health on average as well as 1219 euro cost saving. However, because of the uncertainty involved, the results of a bootstrap analysis cover all quadrants of the cost-effectiveness plane. Using maximum willingness-to-pay per effect unit gained, decision rules can be defined for parts of the cost-effectiveness plane. These have to be aggregated in a further valuation step. CONCLUSIONS: Study results show that decisions on stochastic economic evaluation results may require an additional valuation step aggregating the various parts of the cost-effectiveness plane.

Direct and indirect costs of COPD and its comorbidities: Results from the German COSYCONET study.

BACKGROUND: Reliable up-to-date estimates regarding the economic impact of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are lacking. This study investigates COPD excess healthcare utilization, work absenteeism, and resulting costs within the German COPD cohort COSYCONET. METHODS: Data from 2139 COPD patients in GOLD grade 1-4 from COSYCONET were compared with 1537 lung-healthy control subjects from the population-based KORA platform. Multiple generalized linear models analyzed the association of COPD grades with healthcare utilization, work absence, and costs from a societal perspective while adjusting for sex, age, education, smoking status, body mass index (BMI), and several comorbidities. RESULTS: COPD was significantly associated with excess healthcare utilization, work absence, and premature retirement. Adjusted annual excess cost of COPD in 2012 for GOLD grade 1-4 amounted to €2595 [1770-3678], €3475 [2966-4102], €5955 [5191-6843], and €8924 [7190-10,853] for direct costs, and €8621 [4104-13,857], €9871 [7692-12,777], €16,550 [13,743-20,457], and €27,658 [22,275-35,777] for indirect costs respectively. Comorbidities contributed to the primary effect of COPD on direct costs only. An additional history of cancer or stroke had the largest effect on direct costs, but the effects were smaller than those of COPD grade 3/4. CONCLUSIONS: COPD is associated with substantially higher costs than previously reported.

Economic impact of the AIDS epidemic in the European Community: towards multinational scenarios on hospital care and costs.

OBJECTIVE: To underpin multinational public-health HIV/AIDS strategy planning in the European Community (EC) by integrating national studies on HIV/AIDS in scenario analysis. METHOD: Three types of data are used: routine surveillance data, information on disease progression and observational studies on the economic impact. The HIV/AIDS epidemic is simulated using two models (MIDAS and PC-Based AIDS Scenarios). Selected simulations, consistent with surveillance data, are connected to economic impact (hospital-bed needs and annual hospital costs for AIDS patients). Parameter values expressing per person-year economic impacts are derived from a structured review of publications on economic aspects of AIDS. RESULTS: Evaluation of published studies on hospital resource use and costs in EC countries shows that there are significant differences between both countries and studies, even after conversion to similar measures (for example, using purchasing power parities). These differences are partly due to factors such as the composition of the patient population. Differences in methodology may also have influenced the results. Economic impact is analysed for combinations of three factors; survival time after AIDS diagnosis, hospital inpatient days needed per person-year and corresponding hospital costs per person-year. All scenarios indicate 1995 hospital-bed needs above the 1990 level of 5400 beds. Hospital cost projections for 1995 vary (up to US$1050 million). CONCLUSIONS: (1) For economic impact assessment, there are important gaps in epidemiological and economic data, and in the methods for linking these. (2) Standardization of studies on the resource use and costs of HIV/AIDS is necessary to provide a sound basis for multinational scenarios. (3) Preliminary multinational scenarios show that by 1995 hospital-bed needs for AIDS might reach 0.45% of all hospital beds available in the EC, and that hospital cost projections for AIDS in that year will range from 0.15% to 0.30% of EC health-care expenditure.

Economic evaluation is essential in healthcare for the elderly. A viewpoint.

The aging population is considered to be one of the major factors driving the cost of healthcare upward in industrialised countries. However, several analyses show that expenditure has increased mainly because of other factors. Expenditure is expected to increase when an aging population is combined with technical progress. In addition, the growing proportion of the population who are elderly means that there is an increasing proportion of people who do not work, creating further problems in the financing of healthcare. These problems make it imperative to provide medical care to the elderly in an efficient way. Economic evaluation studies should render information about the cost-effectiveness of medical treatments as well as the preferences of patients. A MEDLINE-based review of the literature reveals that few studies specifically assess the cost-effectiveness of medical care for the elderly. Since age can influence the costs and effects of patient treatment, study results from younger patient samples may not adequately reflect the results to be expected for elderly patients. A significant information gap concerning the efficiency of care for the elderly thus exists, including information on the efficiency of drug treatment. There is also a need to test and, eventually, specify evaluation methodology (such as the appropriateness of quality of life measurement) for elderly patients. Since the elderly have a shorter life expectancy, they may be at a disadvantage when cost-effectiveness measures are compared across age groups. Depending on the normative position, such comparisons can be accepted from a utilitarian, population-oriented perspective, or rejected from a libertarian, individualistic perspective. The normative position needs to be discussed when making use of evaluation results. Avoiding this discussion can bring about ethically unfavourable consequences.

Current and future medical costs of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in The Netherlands.

The aim of this study was to estimate the healthcare costs of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), in the Netherlands, in 1993. Also studied was the future development of these costs, as a result of ageing and possible changes in smoking behavior. A prevalence-based cost-of-illness approach was used to estimate direct medical costs. Age- and gender-specific data were obtained from representative national registries and large, representative surveys. To model future costs, cost estimates were linked to an epidemiological model based on a dynamic multi-state lifetable. It describes 1 yr changes, from one state to another, that result from ageing, birth, migration, incidence, recovery from asthma and death due to asthma, COPD or other causes, and starting or quitting smoking. Three different scenarios were modelled: 1) a reference scenario which primarily predicts the impact of ageing. 2) an 'attainable' smoking reduction scenario and 3) an 'extreme' smoking reduction scenario. Direct medical costs were estimated to be $US 346 million in 1993. With increasing age, the relative importance of asthma in total asthma and COPD costs decreased from 91% to less than 4%. Annual costs per patient were estimated to be $US 499 for asthma and $US 876 for COPD. The breakdown of costs differed considerably between asthma and COPD. The reference scenario predicted the costs to increase by 60% to reach $US 555 million by 2010, COPD prevention as modelled in the second and the third scenario reduced the projected cost increase from 60%, to 57% and 48%, respectively. Together, the direct costs of asthma and COPD represent 1.3% of the Dutch health care budget. The breakdown of the costs shows different patterns for asthma and COPD. The costs of these diseases are expected to increase by 60% in the near future. In the short run the impact of smoking reduction on reducing this increase is relatively small, but it will be greater in the long run.

Real world designs in economic evaluation. Bridging the gap between clinical research and policy-making.

This paper identifies the information that economic evaluation should provide to adequately inform policy-makers. First, policy-makers need cost-effectiveness information that is both internally and externally valid. The latter aspect is often ignored and refers to the relevance of the results of economic trials to the specific decision-making context of the policy-maker. Second, policy-makers, like purchasers of care, may want assessments of the overall budget and health impacts of adopting an intervention in a disease or treatment area. This requires more of an aggregate analysis than the current approaches to economic evaluation (which are typically individual-orientated). There are 3 main conceptual approaches to economic evaluation: the use of randomised controlled trials (RCTs), observational studies and modelling. The RCT can be considered as the gold standard in economic evaluation because of its high internal validity, but results should be interpreted with caution because of its low external validity. There a number of options to enhance external validity; of these, additional modelling and observational data seem to be the most promising. To address issues at the system level, disease modelling or public health modelling is suggested. A 3-step approach, comprising successive assessment of internal validity, external validity (real world relevance) and net impact at the system level, can enhance the informative value of economic analyses. For example, this approach has been used to assess the informative value to decision-makers of an RCT in benign prostatic hyperplasia. The analysis emphasised the feasibility and importance of additional modelling beyond the results from an RCT-based economic analysis and provided important information of relevance for policy-making. Because of the need to increase the real world relevance of pharmacoeconomic analyses, there is potentially a large role for modelling in economic evaluation; however, in order to enhance its credibility, more attention should be paid to validity aspects.

[Radiologic diagnosis of fistulas and abscesses in Crohn's disease: cost-effectiveness analysis of 2 different imaging strategies]. / Radiologische Diagnostik von Fisteln und Abszeessen bei Morbus Crohn: Kosten-Effektivitäts-Analyse zweier bildgebender Verfahren.

PURPOSE: To analyze cost-effectiveness of magnetic resonance imaging and conventional enteroclysis in the assessment of fistulas and abscesses in patients with Crohn's disease (CD). METHODS: A decision analytic model was used to compare enteroclysis with MRI, performing a cost-effectiveness analysis of both diagnostic strategies. Data from 84 patients undergoing a clinical trial were used. Primary outcome was defined as one correctly diagnosed patient regarding Crohn's disease, fistulas, and abscesses, including true-positive and true-negative cases. Costs of the two procedures were estimated in German Marks (DM) using fee schedules. The influence of different definitions of effects was calculated. For all variables single and multiple sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS: Incremental cost effectiveness of MRI vs. enteroclysis was 3,119.33 DM per one additional correctly diagnosed patient. The results of sensitivity analyses suggest that MRI use in certain patient subgroups (patients at higher prevalence of CD, fistulas, and abscesses) even becomes more cost-effective. In this case one additional effect could be gained below 1,650 DM. CONCLUSIONS: From an economic perspective, decision makers should consider the use of MRI in the work-up of patients with Crohn's disease as an efficient procedure under certain conditions. To support treatment policies for physicians or insurance coverage of certain diagnostic strategies the costs possibly saved with MRI should also be considered.

Training health services managers: improving health by more health economics?

In times of rising health expenditures and imminent health problems, efficiency is a crucial element for maintaining and improving health care and, finally, health. One major support measure is the effective management of health services. This paper considers possible improvements of health care by training health services managers in health economics. It surveys the current state of health economics training, presents approaches towards the key issues of health economics, discusses the impact of health economics by two examples, and considers management aspects of health economics training.

Making cost assessments based on RCTs more useful to decision-makers.

The appropriateness of results from economic evaluation for allocation-decisions in health care is a point of major concern for decision-makers. Much attention has been focused on potential biases stemming form the methodological shortcomings of economic evaluation. This article adds to this and concentrates on the 'real world' relevance of results from economic evaluation as an additional step towards making results more useful to decision-makers. Being the accepted standard for economic evaluation, the RCT is used as the reference case; yet, many of the issues raised are also relevant for other research designs. Three classes of biases are examined. The first relates to the limited scope that economic analysts sometimes choose in RCTs. The second class involves the methodological aspects of RCTs and questions the 'real world' relevance of the tools with which economic analysts estimate costs on the basis of RCTs. The third class concerns the representativeness of RCT results, i.e. the generalizability of these results and their usefulness in other treatment contexts. options for limiting the potential confounding influences of these biases are discussed. A check-list is provided which should be applied by decision-makers when using constructing and describing RCTs. This will enhance the relevance of the results of economic evaluation in decision-making and improve the information basis for actual allocation decisions in health care.

Disease-staging for modelling current and future health-care impact of disease: illustrations for diabetes mellitus and AIDS.

This paper addresses the economic relevance of appropriately staging progression of disease for cost assessment and projection. Illustrations are drawn from two Dutch cost-of-illness studies for Diabetes Mellitus (DM) and AIDS. Our disease-staging specifies a separate late stage to capture terminal high-intensity care for end-stage complications. Data are used from a registration of national hospital resource utilization for DM and from a detailed database on AIDS hospital care and costs. In particular, differences in average length of hospital stay for several potential DM end-stage complications are compared with non-DM patients. Neglecting the separation of a specific late stage is estimated to possibly miscalculate 15-20% of the hospital bed needs for DM and AIDS in the Netherlands. In particular, confidence intervals of future projections for AIDS hospital beds--using respectively staged and non-staged models--do not overlap. AIDS hospital costs are overprojected by almost 11% in the non-staged model. Our estimation of DM hospital bed needs raises the percentage in total Dutch hospital beds from 1.7% (neglecting a specific late stage) to 2.0%. For DM and AIDS an appropriate disease-staging averts structural biases in estimations of bed needs and costs, and therefore benefits the planning of hospital care facilities. Obviously, gathering comparable information and developing similar methodology on other diseases, such as respiratory disease, cardiovascular disease and cancer, is needed and could benefit planning in these fields.

AIDS scenarios for The Netherlands; the economic impact on hospitals.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the economic impact of HIV/AIDS on the health care system in The Netherlands. DATA AND METHODS: Two types of data are used: (i) routine surveillance data on AIDS incidence and (ii) information on hospital resource utilisation and corresponding monetary costs. Progression of disease is modelled using a multi-stage model, with stages corresponding to clinical classifications and to different phases of health care need. Economic impact is analysed for all stages in three scenarios: the reference and two alternative scenarios. RESULTS: In the year 2000 hospital bed need would reach 220 beds if yearly new HIV infections in the 1990s remain at the level estimated for the end of the 1980s, and if the intensity of hospital care remains constant. A minimum need of 125 beds is projected if no new HIV infections occur in the 1990s. Hospital costs in 1993 are estimated to amount to 33.8 million ECUs. Scenarios indicate a range of 26.7-50.7 million ECUs for the year 2000 (price level: 1993). The proportion of the costs of hospital inpatient care and cure in total hospital costs increases, whereas the proportion for outpatient services decreases. CONCLUSIONS: Projected hospital bed need of 125-220 for HIV/AIDS in the year 2000 is limited compared to the projections for coronary heart disease and stroke, but approaches that for lung cancer, pneumonia and diabetes. We estimate hospital costs to have been 85% of total health care costs for HIV/AIDS in 1993. In 1993, the estimated proportions in hospital costs are 41% for inpatient care, 20% for inpatient cure and 39% for outpatient facilities. Our scenarios indicate a decreasing share of outpatient costs--possibly to 30% of total hospital costs for HIV/AIDS in 2000--illustrating the growing relative importance of the AIDS stage for the hospital costs. We project hospital costs for HIV/AIDS in 2000 to reach up to 0.53% of projected hospital costs for all diseases. A present value of 38 million ECUs (23%) of hospital costs projected in the reference scenario might be avoidable, during the period 1994-2000. However, with unchanged treatment patterns a present value of 127 million ECUs for hospital costs during the same period is projected to represent unavoidable costs (discount rate: 5%). In The Netherlands, data needs in the field of economic impact assessment of HIV/AIDS especially refer to registrations of non-hospital outpatient resource utilisation and costs.

Hospital care for persons with AIDS in the European Union.

This study estimates the current and future hospital resources for AIDS patients in the European Union (EU), using multinational scenario analysis (EU Concerted Action BMH1-CT-941723). In collaboration with another EU-project ('Managing the Costs of HIV Infection'), six national European studies on the utilization of hospital care for AIDS have been selected to provide the data for our analysis. The selection criteria involve recentness, quality, comparability, accessibility and representativeness. Baseline hospital resource utilization is estimated for hospital inpatient days and outpatient contracts, using a standardized approach controlling for two severity stages of AIDS (chronic stage and late stage). The epidemiological part of the study is based on standard models for backcalculating HIV incidence and projecting AIDS incidence, prevalence and mortality. In the next step, baseline resource utilization is linked to epidemiological information in a mixed prevalence and mortality-based approach. Several scenarios render different future epidemiological developments and hospital resource needs. For the year 1999, hospital bed needs of 10,000-12,700 in the EU are indicated, representing an increase of 20-60% compared to the estimated current (1995) level. The projected range for 1999 corresponds to a maximum of 0.65% of all hospital beds available in the EU. The growth in the number of outpatient hospital contacts is projected to possibly exceed that of inpatient days up to 1.82 million in 1999. Our methodology illustrates that estimation of current and future hospital care for AIDS has to be controlled for severity stages, to prevent biases. Further application of the multinational approach is demonstrated through a 'what-if' analysis of the potential impact of combination triple therapy for HIV/AIDS. Estimation of the economic impact of other diseases could as well benefit from the severity-stages approach.