Epidemiology and Ecology of Severe Fever With Thrombocytopenia Syndrome in China, 2010‒2018.

BACKGROUND: The growing epidemics of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS), an emerging tick-borne disease in East Asia, and its high case fatality rate have raised serious public health concerns. METHODS: Surveillance data on laboratory-confirmed SFTS cases in China were collected. The spatiotemporal dynamics and epidemiological features were explored. The socioeconomic and environmental drivers were identified for SFTS diffusion using survival analysis and for SFTS persistence using a two-stage generalized boosted regression tree model. RESULTS: During 2010‒2018, a total of 7721 laboratory-confirmed SFTS cases were reported in China, with an overall case fatality rate (CFR) of 10.5%. The average annual incidence increased >20 times and endemic areas expanded from 27 to 1574 townships, whereas the CFR declined from 19% to 10% during this period. Four geographical clusters-the Changbai Mountain area, the Jiaodong Peninsula, the Taishan Mountain area, and the Huaiyangshan Mountain area-were identified. Diffusion and persistence of the disease were both driven by elevation, high coverages of woods, crops, and shrubs, and the vicinity of habitats of migratory birds but had different meteorological drivers. Residents ≥60 years old in rural areas with crop fields and tea farms were at increased risk to SFTS. CONCLUSIONS: Surveillance of SFTS and intervention programs need to be targeted at areas ecologically suitability for vector ticks and in the vicinity of migratory birds to curb the growing epidemic.

Transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease and intervention effectiveness in Sierra Leone.

Sierra Leone is the most severely affected country by an unprecedented outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa. Although successfully contained, the transmission dynamics of EVD and the impact of interventions in the country remain unclear. We established a database of confirmed and suspected EVD cases from May 2014 to September 2015 in Sierra Leone and mapped the spatiotemporal distribution of cases at the chiefdom level. A Poisson transmission model revealed that the transmissibility at the chiefdom level, estimated as the average number of secondary infections caused by a patient per week, was reduced by 43% [95% confidence interval (CI): 30%, 52%] after October 2014, when the strategic plan of the United Nations Mission for Emergency Ebola Response was initiated, and by 65% (95% CI: 57%, 71%) after the end of December 2014, when 100% case isolation and safe burials were essentially achieved, both compared with before October 2014. Population density, proximity to Ebola treatment centers, cropland coverage, and atmospheric temperature were associated with EVD transmission. The household secondary attack rate (SAR) was estimated to be 0.059 (95% CI: 0.050, 0.070) for the overall outbreak. The household SAR was reduced by 82%, from 0.093 to 0.017, after the nationwide campaign to achieve 100% case isolation and safe burials had been conducted. This study provides a complete overview of the transmission dynamics of the 2014-2015 EVD outbreak in Sierra Leone at both chiefdom and household levels. The interventions implemented in Sierra Leone seem effective in containing the epidemic, particularly in interrupting household transmission.

Rapid increase of scrub typhus incidence in Guangzhou, southern China, 2006-2014.

BACKGROUND: In the last decade, scrub typhus (ST) has been emerging or re-emerging in some areas of Asia, including Guangzhou, one of the most affected endemic areas of ST in China. METHODS: Based on the data on all cases reported in Guangzhou from 2006 to 2014, we characterized the epidemiological features, and identified environmental determinants for the spatial distribution of ST using a panel negative binomial model. RESULTS: A total of 4821 scrub typhus cases were reported in Guangzhou during 2006-2014. The annual incidence increased noticeably and the increase was relatively high and rapid in rural townships and among elderly females. The majority of cases (86.8%) occurred during May-October, and farmers constituted the majority of the cases, accounting for 33.9% in urban and 61.6% in rural areas. The number of housekeeper patients had a rapid increment in both rural and urban areas during the study period. Atmospheric pressure and relative humidity with lags of 1 or 2 months, distributions of broadleaved forest and rural township were identified as determinants for the spatiotemporal distribution of scrub typhus. CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that surveillance and public education need to be focused on the elderly farmers in rural areas covered with broadleaf forest in southern China.

Increasing incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome could be associated with livestock husbandry in Changchun, northeastern China.

BACKGROUND: Since the end of the 1990s, the incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) has been increasing dramatically in Changchun, northeastern China. However, it is unknown which, and how, underlying risk factors have been involved in the reemergence of the disease. METHODS: Data on HFRS cases at the county scale were collected from 1998 to 2012. Data on livestock husbandry including the numbers of large animals (cattle, horses, donkeys and mules), sheep, and deer, and on climatic and land cover variables were also collected. Epidemiological features, including the spatial, temporal and human patterns of disease were characterized. The potential factors related to spatial heterogeneity and temporal trends were analyzed using standard and time-series Poisson regression analysis, respectively. RESULTS: Annual incidence varied among the 10 counties. Shuangyang County in southeastern Changchun had the highest number of cases (1,525 cases; 35.9% of all cases), but its population only accounted for 5.6% of the total population. Based on seasonal pattern in HFRS incidence, two epidemic phases were identified. One was a single epidemic peak at the end of each year from 1988 to 1997 and the other consisted of dual epidemic peaks at both the end and the beginning of each year from 1998 to the end of the study period. HFRS incidence was higher in males compared to females, and most of the HFRS cases occurred in peasant populations. The results of the Poisson regression analysis indicated that the spatial distribution and the increasing incidence of HFRS were significantly associated with livestock husbandry and climate factors, particularly with deer cultivation. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that the re-emergence of HFRS in Changchun has been accompanied by changing seasonal patterns over the past 25 years. Integrated measures focusing on areas related to local livestock husbandry could be helpful for the prevention and control of HFRS.

Epidemiological features and risk factors associated with the spatial and temporal distribution of human brucellosis in China.

BACKGROUND: Human brucellosis incidence in China has been increasing dramatically since 1999. However, epidemiological features and potential factors underlying the re-emergence of the disease remain less understood. METHODS: Data on human and animal brucellosis cases at the county scale were collected for the year 2004 to 2010. Also collected were environmental and socioeconomic variables. Epidemiological features including spatial and temporal patterns of the disease were characterized, and the potential factors related to the spatial heterogeneity and the temporal trend of were analysed using Poisson regression analysis, Granger causality analysis, and autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) models, respectively. RESULTS: The epidemic showed a significantly higher spatial correlation with the number of sheep and goats than swine and cattle. The disease was most prevalent in grassland areas with elevation between 800-1,600 meters. The ADL models revealed that local epidemics were correlated with comparatively lower temperatures and less sunshine in winter and spring, with a 1-7 month lag before the epidemic peak in May. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that human brucellosis tended to occur most commonly in grasslands at moderate elevation where sheep and goats were the predominant livestock, and in years with cooler winter and spring or less sunshine.

Short-Term Exposure to Ambient Air Pollution and Influenza: A Multicity Study in China.

BACKGROUND: Air pollution is a major risk factor for planetary health and has long been suspected of predisposing humans to respiratory diseases induced by pathogens like influenza viruses. However, epidemiological evidence remains elusive due to lack of longitudinal data from large cohorts. OBJECTIVE: Our aim is to quantify the short-term association of influenza incidence with exposure to ambient air pollutants in Chinese cities. METHODS: Based on air pollutant data and influenza surveillance data from 82 cities in China over a period of 5 years, we applied a two-stage time series analysis to assess the association of daily incidence of reported influenza cases with six common air pollutants [particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5µm (PM2.5), particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤10µm (PM10), NO2, SO2, CO, and O3], while adjusting for potential confounders including temperature, relative humidity, seasonality, and holiday effects. We built a distributed lag Poisson model for one or multiple pollutants in each individual city in the first stage and conducted a meta-analysis to pool city-specific estimates in the second stage. RESULTS: A total of 3,735,934 influenza cases were reported in 82 cities from 2015 to 2019, accounting for 72.71% of the overall case number reported in the mainland of China. The time series models for each pollutant alone showed that the daily incidence of reported influenza cases was positively associated with almost all air pollutants except for ozone. The most prominent short-term associations were found for SO2 and NO2 with cumulative risk ratios of 1.094 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.054, 1.136] and 1.093 (95% CI: 1.067, 1.119), respectively, for each 10 µg/m3 increase in the concentration at each of the lags of 1-7 d. Only NO2 showed a significant association with the daily incidence of influenza cases in the multipollutant model that adjusts all six air pollutants together. The impact of air pollutants on influenza was generally found to be greater in children, in subtropical cities, and during cold months. DISCUSSION: Increased exposure to ambient air pollutants, particularly NO2, is associated with a higher risk of influenza-associated illness. Policies on reducing air pollution levels may help alleviate the disease burden due to influenza infection. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP12146.

Ecology of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, 2012-2020: A machine learning modelling analysis.

The ongoing enzootic circulation of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in the Middle East and North Africa is increasingly raising the concern about the possibility of its recombination with other human-adapted coronaviruses, particularly the pandemic SARS-CoV-2. We aim to provide an updated picture about ecological niches of MERS-CoV and associated socio-environmental drivers. Based on 356 confirmed MERS cases with animal contact reported to the WHO and 63 records of animal infections collected from the literature as of 30 May 2020, we assessed ecological niches of MERS-CoV using an ensemble model integrating three machine learning algorithms. With a high predictive accuracy (area under receiver operating characteristic curve = 91.66% in test data), the ensemble model estimated that ecologically suitable areas span over the Middle East, South Asia and the whole North Africa, much wider than the range of reported locally infected MERS cases and test-positive animal samples. Ecological suitability for MERS-CoV was significantly associated with high levels of bareland coverage (relative contribution = 30.06%), population density (7.28%), average temperature (6.48%) and camel density (6.20%). Future surveillance and intervention programs should target the high-risk populations and regions informed by updated quantitative analyses.

The role of selenium in severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome: an integrative analysis of surveillance data and clinical data.

OBJECTIVES: Selenium deficiency can be associated with increased susceptibility to some viral infections and even more severe diseases. In this study, we aimed to examine whether this association applies to severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS). METHOD: An observational study was conducted based on the data of 13,305 human SFTS cases reported in mainland China from 2010 to 2020. The associations among incidence, case fatality rate of SFTS, and crop selenium concentration at the county level were explored. The selenium level in a cohort of patients with SFTS was tested, and its relationship with clinical outcomes was evaluated. RESULTS: The association between selenium-deficient crops and the incidence rate of SFTS was confirmed by multivariate Poisson analysis, with an estimated incidence rate ratio (IRR, 95% confidence interval [CI]) of 4.549 (4.215-4.916) for moderate selenium-deficient counties and 16.002 (14.706-17.431) for severe selenium-deficient counties. In addition, a higher mortality rate was also observed in severe selenium-deficient counties with an IRR of 1.409 (95% CI: 1.061-1.909). A clinical study on 120 patients with SFTS showed an association between serum selenium deficiency and severe SFTS (odds ratio, OR: 2.94; 95% CI: 1.00-8.67) or fatal SFTS (OR: 7.55; 95% CI: 1.14-50.16). CONCLUSION: Selenium deficiency is associated with increased susceptibility to SFTS and poor clinical outcomes.

Mapping ticks and tick-borne pathogens in China.

Understanding ecological niches of major tick species and prevalent tick-borne pathogens is crucial for efficient surveillance and control of tick-borne diseases. Here we provide an up-to-date review on the spatial distributions of ticks and tick-borne pathogens in China. We map at the county level 124 tick species, 103 tick-borne agents, and human cases infected with 29 species (subspecies) of tick-borne pathogens that were reported in China during 1950-2018. Haemaphysalis longicornis is found to harbor the highest variety of tick-borne agents, followed by Ixodes persulcatus, Dermacentor nutalli and Rhipicephalus microplus. Using a machine learning algorithm, we assess ecoclimatic and socioenvironmental drivers for the distributions of 19 predominant vector ticks and two tick-borne pathogens associated with the highest disease burden. The model-predicted suitable habitats for the 19 tick species are 14‒476% larger in size than the geographic areas where these species were detected, indicating severe under-detection. Tick species harboring pathogens of imminent threats to public health should be prioritized for more active field surveillance.

Epidemiology and evolution of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, 2012-2020.

BACKGROUND: The ongoing transmission of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in the Middle East and its expansion to other regions are raising concerns of a potential pandemic. An in-depth analysis about both population and molecular epidemiology of this pathogen is needed. METHODS: MERS cases reported globally as of June 2020 were collected mainly from World Health Organization official reports, supplemented by other reliable sources. Determinants for case fatality and spatial diffusion of MERS were assessed with Logistic regressions and Cox proportional hazard models, respectively. Phylogenetic and phylogeographic analyses were performed to examine the evolution and migration history of MERS-CoV. RESULTS: A total of 2562 confirmed MERS cases with 150 case clusters were reported with a case fatality rate of 32.7% (95% CI: 30.9‒34.6%). Saudi Arabia accounted for 83.6% of the cases. Age of ≥ 65 years old, underlying conditions and ≥ 5 days delay in diagnosis were independent risk factors for death. However, a history of animal contact was associated with a higher risk (adjusted OR = 2.97, 95% CI: 1.10-7.98) among female cases < 65 years but with a lower risk (adjusted OR = 0.31, 95% CI: 0.18-0.51) among male cases ≥ 65 years old. Diffusion of the disease was fastest from its origin in Saudi Arabia to the east, and was primarily driven by the transportation network. The most recent sub-clade C5.1 (since 2013) was associated with non-synonymous mutations and a higher mortality rate. Phylogeographic analyses pointed to Riyadh of Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi of the United Arab Emirates as the hubs for both local and international spread of MERS-CoV. CONCLUSIONS: MERS-CoV remains primarily locally transmitted in the Middle East, with opportunistic exportation to other continents and a potential of causing transmission clusters of human cases. Animal contact is associated with a higher risk of death, but the association differs by age and sex. Transportation network is the leading driver for the spatial diffusion of the disease. These findings how this pathogen spread are helpful for targeting public health surveillance and interventions to control endemics and to prevent a potential pandemic.