Distribution and risk factors of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in mainland China.

Data from all reported cases of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) were obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. The spatiotemporal distribution patterns of cases were characterized through spatial analysis. The impact of travel-related risk factors on invasion of the disease was analyzed using survival analysis, and climatic factors related to local transmission were identified using multilevel Poisson regression, both at the county level. The results showed that the epidemic spanned a large geographic area, with the most affected areas being in western China. Significant differences in incidence were found among age groups, with incidences peaking in school-age children. Overall, the epidemic spread from southeast to northwest. Proximity to airports and being intersected by national highways or freeways but not railways were variables associated with the presence of the disease in a county. Lower temperature and lower relative humidity were the climatic factors facilitating local transmission after correction for the effects of school summer vacation and public holidays, as well as population density and the density of medical facilities. These findings indicate that interventions focused on domestic travel, population density, and climatic factors could play a role in mitigating the public health impact of future influenza pandemics.

Infectious Disease Information Collection System at the Scene of Disaster Relief Based on a Personal Digital Assistant.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to build a database to collect infectious disease information at the scene of a disaster through the use of 128 epidemiological questionnaires and 47 types of options, with rapid acquisition of information regarding infectious disease and rapid questionnaire customization at the scene of disaster relief by use of a personal digital assistant (PDA). METHODS: SQL Server 2005 (Microsoft Corp, Redmond, WA) was used to create the option database for the infectious disease investigation, to develop a client application for the PDA, and to deploy the application on the server side. The users accessed the server for data collection and questionnaire customization with the PDA. RESULTS: A database with a set of comprehensive options was created and an application system was developed for the Android operating system (Google Inc, Mountain View, CA). On this basis, an infectious disease information collection system was built for use at the scene of disaster relief. The creation of an infectious disease information collection system and rapid questionnaire customization through the use of a PDA was achieved. CONCLUSIONS: This system integrated computer technology and mobile communication technology to develop an infectious disease information collection system and to allow for rapid questionnaire customization at the scene of disaster relief. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;11:668-673).

Decision support system for the response to infectious disease emergencies based on WebGIS and mobile services in China.

BACKGROUND: For years, emerging infectious diseases have appeared worldwide and threatened the health of people. The emergence and spread of an infectious-disease outbreak are usually unforeseen, and have the features of suddenness and uncertainty. Timely understanding of basic information in the field, and the collection and analysis of epidemiological information, is helpful in making rapid decisions and responding to an infectious-disease emergency. Therefore, it is necessary to have an unobstructed channel and convenient tool for the collection and analysis of epidemiologic information in the field. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Baseline information for each county in mainland China was collected and a database was established by geo-coding information on a digital map of county boundaries throughout the country. Google Maps was used to display geographic information and to conduct calculations related to maps, and the 3G wireless network was used to transmit information collected in the field to the server. This study established a decision support system for the response to infectious-disease emergencies based on WebGIS and mobile services (DSSRIDE). The DSSRIDE provides functions including data collection, communication and analyses in real time, epidemiological detection, the provision of customized epidemiological questionnaires and guides for handling infectious disease emergencies, and the querying of professional knowledge in the field. These functions of the DSSRIDE could be helpful for epidemiological investigations in the field and the handling of infectious-disease emergencies. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The DSSRIDE provides a geographic information platform based on the Google Maps application programming interface to display information of infectious disease emergencies, and transfers information between workers in the field and decision makers through wireless transmission based on personal computers, mobile phones and personal digital assistants. After a 2-year practice and application in infectious disease emergencies, the DSSRIDE is becoming a useful platform and is a useful tool for investigations in the field carried out by response sections and individuals. The system is suitable for use in developing countries and low-income districts.

[Design and implementation of Geographical Information System on prevention and control of cholera].

To build the Geographical Information System (GIS) database for prevention and control of cholera programs as well as using management analysis and function demonstration to show the spatial attribute of cholera. Data from case reporting system regarding diarrhoea, vibrio cholerae, serotypes of vibrio cholerae at the surveillance spots and seafoods, as well as surveillance data on ambient environment and climate were collected. All the data were imported to system database to show the incidence of vibrio cholerae in different provinces, regions and counties to support the spatial analysis through the spatial analysis of GIS. The epidemic trends of cholera, seasonal characteristics of the cholera and the variation of the vibrio cholerae with times were better understood. Information on hotspots, regions and time of epidemics was collected, and helpful in providing risk prediction on the incidence of vibrio cholerae. The exploitation of the software can predict and simulate the spatio-temporal risks, so as to provide guidance for the prevention and control of the disease.

Change in rainfall drives malaria re-emergence in Anhui Province, China.

Malaria is re-emerging in Anhui Province, China after a decade long' low level of endemicity. The number of human cases has increased rapidly since 2000 and reached its peak in 2006. That year, the malaria cases accounted for 54.5% of total cases in mainland China. However, the spatial and temporal patterns of human cases and factors underlying the re-emergence remain unclear. We established a database containing 20 years' (1990-2009) records of monthly reported malaria cases and meteorological parameters. Spearman correlations were used to assess the crude association between malaria incidence and meteorological variables, and a polynomial distributed lag (PDL) time-series regression was performed to examine contribution of meteorological factors to malaria transmission in three geographic regions (northern, mid and southern Anhui Province), respectively. Then, a two-year (2008-2009) prediction was performed to validate the PDL model that was created by using the data collected from 1990 to 2007. We found that malaria incidence decreased in Anhui Province in 1990s. However, the incidence has dramatically increased in the north since 2000, while the transmission has remained at a relatively low level in the mid and south. Spearman correlation analyses showed that the monthly incidences of malaria were significantly associated with temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, and the multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation index with lags of 0-2 months in all three regions. The PDL model revealed that only rainfall with a 1-2 month lag was significantly associated with malaria incidence in all three regions. The model validation showed a high accuracy for the prediction of monthly incidence over a 2-year predictive period. Malaria epidemics showed a high spatial heterogeneity in Anhui Province during the 1990-2009 study periods. The change in rainfall drives the reemergence of malaria in the northern Anhui Province.

[Study on the spread of influenza A (H1N1) under community based simulation model].

UNLABELLED: A simulation experiment was carried out by applying the simulation model to spread of influenza A (H1N1) in communities with different population density. Population at the community-level was divided into susceptible, infected and recovered ones, according to the susceptive-infective-removal (SIR) model, and the age structure of the population was set on the basis of data from the Fifth Population Census. Contact and moving of the individuals were based on the Network Random Contact Model and the mortality and infection mode were established in line with the influenza A (H1N1) medical description. The results of an example analysis showed that the infection rate was closely related to the density of the community-based population while the rate on early infection grew rapidly. Influenza A (H1N1) seemed more likely to break out in the community with population density of over 50/hm². Comparative tests showed that vaccination could effectively restrain the spread of influenza A (H1N1) at the community level. CONCLUSION: Population density, and the coverage of influenza vaccination were risk factors for influenza A (H1N1) epidemics. Results of the experiment showed of value, for prevention and vaccination on this topic.

Spatiotemporal trends and climatic factors of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome epidemic in Shandong Province, China.

BACKGROUND: Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a rodent-borne disease caused by Hantaviruses. It is endemic in all 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and metropolitan areas in mainland China where human cases account for 90% of the total global cases. Shandong Province is among the most serious endemic areas. HFRS cases in Shandong Province were first reported in Yutai County in 1968. Since then, the disease has spread across the province, and as of 2005, all 111 counties were reported to have local human infections. However, causes underlying such rapid spread and wide distribution remain less well understood. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Here we report a spatiotemporal analysis of human HFRS cases in Shandong using data spanning 1973 to 2005. Seasonal incidence maps and velocity vector maps were produced to analyze the spread of HFRS over time in Shandong Province, and a panel data analysis was conducted to explore the association between HFRS incidence and climatic factors. Results show a rapid spread of HFRS from its epicenter in Rizhao, Linyi, Weifang Regions in southern Shandong to north, east, and west parts of the province. Based on seasonal shifts of epidemics, three epidemic phases were identified over the 33-year period. The first phase occurred between 1973 and 1982 during which the foci of HFRS was located in the south Shandong and the epidemic peak occurred in the fall and winter, presenting a seasonal characteristic of Hantaan virus (HTNV) transmission. The second phase between 1983 and 1985 was characterized by northward and westward spread of HFRS foci, and increases in incidence of HFRS in both fall-winter and spring seasons. The human infections in the spring reflected a characteristic pattern of Seoul virus (SEOV) transmission. The third phase between 1986 and 2005 was characterized by the northeast spread of the HFRS foci until it covered all counties, and the HFRS incidence in the fall-winter season decreased while it remained high in the spring. In addition, our findings suggest that precipitation, humidity, and temperature are major environmental variables that are associated with the seasonal variation of HFRS incidence in Shandong Province. CONCLUSIONS: The spread of HFRS in Shandong Province may have been accompanied by seasonal shifts of HTNV-dominated transmission to SEOV-dominated transmission over the past three decades. The variations in HFRS incidence were significantly associated with local precipitation, humidity, and temperature.

[Epidemiological characteristics of 420 influenza A (H1N1) cases confirmed in the early stage of the epidemic in mainland China].

OBJECTIVE: To describe the epidemical characteristics of A (H1N1) influenza identified in the early stage (from May 11 to June 22, 2009) of the epidemic, in mainland China. METHODS: Epidemical characteristics of 420 confirmed A (H1N1) influenza cases reported from May 11 to June 22, 2009 were analyzed descriptively, including the distribution of age, sex, source of infection, main symptoms and incubation period. RESULTS: A total of 77.8% early cases in mainland China were imported from other countries. Three countries including America, Canada and Australia were attributed to 90% of the imported cases. Most of the cases were from 6 months to 73 years old, with 94% of them under 50 years. Most of the symptoms would include fever (81%), cough (40%) and sore throat (35%). The mean incubation period of second-generation cases was 4.3 (4.2 +/- 1.5) days. CONCLUSION: Imported cases dominated the total cases in the early stage of the epidemic had similar gender distribution of those from exporting countries. Fever, cough and sore throat were the three main symptoms manifested in influenza cases. 2.5 +/- 1.9 (1 - 11) days was found in imported cases between the day of off-board and the onset of symptoms. The incubation period was 4.3 +/- 1.7 (1 - 8) days among the secondary cases.

[Spatiotemporal characteristics of seasonal influenza in mainland China].

OBJECTIVE: To study the spatiotemporal distribution and seasonal characteristics of influenza and to explore its transmission patterns, in the mainland of China. METHODS: Spatiotemporal cluster methods and spatial trend surface methods were used to analyze the influenza surveillance data. RESULTS: There were a summer peak in the south from June to August (RR(paediatric) = 1.31, P < 0.01; RR(internal) = 1.74, P < 0.01) and a winter peak from December to January (RR(paediatric) = 1.45, P < 0.01; RR(internal) = 1.45, P < 0.01) in the northern part of the country, during every epidemic season. Influenza virus in mainland China seemed to spread from the southern to the northern parts of the country, in a progressing way. CONCLUSION: In the southern part of the country, it is more important to take prevention and control measurements on influenza from June to August but for the northern part, the key period is from December to January. It is more important to timely identify the variation of the influenza virus, in the southern part of the country.

[Pattern on the spread of novel influenza A (H1N1) and quantitative assessment of containment in mainland China].

OBJECTIVE: To study the epidemic tendency of emerging influenza A (H1N1) in mainland China, and to explore the different patterns of spread on the disease under the following contexts: (1) To stop the temperature screening program at the border areas of the country; (2) To stop measures of prevention and control on those identified cases and their close contacts; (3) To strengthen programs for the foreign immigrants on 'home quarantine'. METHODS: Under relevant parameters and information on the transmission link from different reference data, the patterns of influenza spread were simulated by Monte Carlo method. RESULTS: The temperature screening on border could inhibit the transmission of influenza A (H1N1) to some extent, so that after 3 months the cumulative number of cases will be reduced by 21.5% (1718 cases) and transmission speed of influenza A (H1N1) in mainland China will be delayed by about 4 days. Furthermore, taking positive measures of prevention and control could efficiently slow down the epidemic, so that after 3 months the cumulative number of cases will be reduced by 93.4% (about 90 thousand cases) and it would be delayed by about 15 days if influenza A (H1N1) spreads to the whole country. In addition, if the immigrants were able to practise quarantine measures consciously by themselves at home the effect of prevention and control against influenza A (H1N1) would be more significant. If 30%, 60% and 90% of immigrants would take quarantine measures home consciously, after 3 months the cumulative number of cases will be reduced by about 15% (about 940 cases), 34% (about 2230 cases) and 64% (about 4180 cases), respectively. Also, influenza A (H1N1) spreads to the whole country will be delayed by about 4 days, 10 days and 25 days, respectively. It is difficult to curb fully the development of the epidemic by taking existing control measures, and influenza A (H1N1) may spread to almost all provinces after about 3 months. CONCLUSION: The effects of existing prevention and control measures were objectively assessed and the results showed the necessity and effectiveness of these measures against the transmission of influenza A (H1N1), in the mainland of China.