Usefulness of the C2HEST score to predict new onset atrial fibrillation. A systematic review and meta-analysis on >11 million subjects.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of new-onset atrial fibrillation (NOAF) is increasing in the last decades. NOAF is associated with worse long-term prognosis. The C2HEST score has been recently proposed to stratify the risk of NOAF. Pooled data on the performance of the C2HEST score are lacking. METHODS: Systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies reporting data on NOAF according to the C2HEST score. We searched PubMed, Web of Science and Google scholar databases without time restrictions until June 2023 according to PRISMA guidelines. Meta-analysis of the area under the curve (AUC) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) and a sensitivity analysis according to setting of care and countries were performed. RESULTS: Of 360 studies, 17 were included in the analysis accounting for 11,067,496 subjects/patients with 307,869 NOAF cases. Mean age ranged from 41.3 to 71.2 years. The prevalence of women ranged from 10.6 to 54.75%. The pooled analysis gave an AUC of .70 (95% CI .66-.74). A subgroup analysis on studies from general population/primary care yielded an AUC of 0.69 (95% CI 0.64-0.75). In the subgroup of patients with cardiovascular disease, the AUC was .71 (.69-.79). The C2HEST score performed similarly in Asian (AUC .72, 95% CI .68-.77), and in Western patients (AUC .68, 95% CI .62-.75). The best performance was observed in studies with a mean age <50 years (n = 3,144,704 with 25,538 NOAF, AUC .78, 95% CI .76-.79). CONCLUSION: The C2HEST score may be used to predict NOAF in primary and secondary prevention patients, and in patients across different countries. Early detection of NOAF may aid prompt initiation of management and follow-up, potentially leading to a reduction of AF-related complications.

Association between triglyceride-glucose index trajectories and carotid atherosclerosis progression.

BACKGROUND: The triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index has been recognized as being an alternative cardiometabolic biomarker for insulin resistance associated with the development and prognosis of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, the prospective relationship between baseline and long-term trajectories of the TyG index and carotid atherosclerosis (CAS) progression has yet to be investigated. METHODS: This longitudinal prospective cohort study included 10,380 adults with multiple general health checks at Peking University Third Hospital from January 2011 to December 2020. The TyG index was calculated as ln (fasting triglyceride [mg/dL] × fasting glucose [mg/dL]/2). The latent class trajectory modeling method was used to analyze the TyG index trajectories over the follow-up. Based on univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards analyses, hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for the baseline and trajectory of the TyG index. RESULTS: During a median follow-up period of 757 days, 1813 participants developed CAS progression. Each 1-standard deviation (SD) increase in the TyG index was associated with a 7% higher risk of CAS progression after adjusting for traditional CVD risk factors (HR = 1.067, 95% CI 1.006-1.132). Similar results were observed when the TyG index was expressed as quartiles. According to different trajectory patterns, participants were categorized into low-stable, moderate-stable, and high-increasing groups. After multivariate adjustment, the moderate-stable group had a 1.139-fold (95% CI 1.021-1.272) risk of CAS progression. The high-increasing trajectory of the TyG index tended to be associated with CAS progression (HR = 1.206, 95% CI 0.961-1.513). CONCLUSIONS: Participants with higher baseline and moderate-stable trajectory of the TyG index were associated with CAS progression. Long-term trajectories of the TyG index can help to identify individuals at a higher risk of CAS progression who deserve specific preventive and therapeutic approaches.

Compliance of atrial fibrillation treatment with the ABC pathway in patients with concomitant diabetes mellitus in the Middle East based on the Gulf SAFE registry.

INTRODUCTION: Atrial fibrillation (AF) and diabetes mellitus (DM) constitute a heavy burden on healthcare expenditure due to their negative impact on clinical outcomes in the Middle East. The Atrial fibrillation Better Care (ABC) pathway provides a simple strategy of integrated approach of AF management: A-Avoid stroke; B-Better symptom control; C-Cardiovascular comorbidity risk management. AIMS: Evaluation of the AF treatment compliance to ABC pathway in DM patients in the Middle East. Assessment of the impact of ABC pathway adherence on all-cause mortality and the composite outcome of stroke/systemic embolism, all-cause death and cardiovascular hospitalisations. METHODS: From 2043 patients in the Gulf SAFE registry, 603 patients (mean age 63; 48% male) with DM were included in an analysis of ABC pathway compliance: A-appropriate use of anticoagulation according to CHA2 DS2 -VASc score; B-AF symptoms management according to the European Heart Rhythm Association (EHRA) scale; C-Optimised cardiovascular comorbidities management. RESULTS: 86 (14.3%) patients were treated in compliance with the ABC pathway. During 1-year follow-up, 207 composite outcome events and 87 deaths occurred. Mortality was significantly lower in the ABC group vs non-ABC (5.8% vs 15.9%, P = .0014, respectively). On multivariate analysis, ABC compliance was associated with a lower risk of all-cause death and the composite outcome after 6 months (OR 0.18; 95% CI: 0.42-0.75 and OR 0.54; 95% Cl: 0.30-1.00, respectively) and at 1 year (OR 0.30; 95% Cl: 0.11-0.76 and OR 0.57; 95% Cl: 0.33-0.97, respectively) vs the non-ABC group. CONCLUSIONS: Compliance with the ABC pathway care was independently associated with the reduced risk of all-cause death and the composite outcome in DM patients with AF, highlighting the importance of an integrated approach to AF management.

Anticoagulation Resumption After Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Decision-making on resuming oral anticoagulant (OAC) after intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) evokes significant debate among clinicians. Such patients have been excluded from randomized clinical trials. This review article provides a comprehensive summary of the evidence on anticoagulation resumption after ICH. RECENT FINDINGS: OAC resumption does not increase the risk of recurrent ICH and can also reduce the risk of all-cause mortality. OAC cessation exposes patients to a significantly higher risk of thromboembolism, which could be reduced by resumption. The optimal timing of anticoagulation resumption after ICH is still unknown. Both early (< 2 weeks) and late (> 4 weeks) resumption should be reached only after very careful assessment of risks for ICH recurrence and thromboembolism. The introduction of new oral anticoagulants and other interventions, such as left atrial appendage closure, has provided some patients with more alternatives. Given the lack of high-quality evidence to guide clinical decision-making, clinicians must carefully balance the risks of thromboembolism and recurrent ICH in individual patients. We propose a management approach which would facilitate the decision-making process on whether anticoagulation is appropriate, as well as when and how to restart anticoagulation after ICH.

Cinnamaldehyde protects cardiomyocytes from oxygen-glucose deprivation/reoxygenation-induced lipid peroxidation and DNA damage via activating the Nrf2 pathway.

Rapid restoration of perfusion in ischemic myocardium is the most direct and effective treatment for coronary heart disease but may cause myocardial ischemia/reperfusion injury (MIRI). Cinnamaldehyde (CA, C9H8O), a key component in the well-known Chinese medicine cinnamomum cassia, has cardioprotective effects against MIRI. This study aimed to observe the therapeutic effect of CA on MIRI and to elucidate its potential mechanism. H9C2 rat cardiomyocytes were pretreated with CA solution at 0, 10, and 100 µM, respectively and subjected to oxygen-glucose deprivation/reoxygenation (OGD/R). Then the cell viability, the NF-κB and caspase3 gene levels, the reduced glutathione (GSH)/oxidized glutathione (GSSG) ratio, superoxide dismutase (SOD) level, reactive oxygen species (ROS) generation, 4-hydroxynonenal (4-HNE), and malondialdehyde (MDA) were detected. The severity of DNA damage was assessed by tail moment (TM) values using alkaline comet assay. Besides, the DNA damage-related proteins and the key proteins of the Nrf2 pathway were detected by western blot. CA treatment increased the cell viability, GHS/GSSG ratio, SOD level, PARP1, Nrf2, PPAR-γ, and HO-1 protein levels of H9C2 cardiomyocytes, while reducing NF-κB, caspase3, ROS level, 4-HNE and MDA content, γ-H2AX protein level, and TM values. Inhibition of the Nrf2 pathway reversed the effect of CA on cell viability and apoptosis of OGD/R induced H9C2 cardiomyocytes. Besides, 100 µM CA was more effective than 10 µM CA. In the OGD/R-induced H9C2 cardiomyocyte model, CA can protect cardiomyocytes from MIRI by attenuating lipid peroxidation and repairing DNA damage. The mechanism may be related to the activation of the Nrf2 pathway.

[Characteristics of Organic Matter Composition and Oxidation Potential in Road Dust in Winter in Xi'an].

Roads are the main places where urban people are exposed to atmospheric particulate matter from outdoor activities, and certain oxidatively active substances contained in road particulate matter are important components that induce the generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS), which in turn endanger human health. Here, we explored the characteristics of organic matter composition in water-soluble (WSM) and methanol-soluble fractions (MSM) of road dust in Xi'an and its oxidation potential (OP). Additionally, we investigated the organic fractions and their distribution based on parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC) and analyzed the correlation between organic matter types and OP. The results showed that the water-insoluble fraction of road dust in Xi'an contained more chromophoric organic matter with an average total concentration of (4.71±1.27)×104 R.U., which was 12 times higher than that of WSM[(3.96±1.10)×103 R.U.], of which low-oxidizing humic-like substances (HULIS) were the main organic matter (34.8%-43.7% of the total organic matter). The results of cluster analysis showed that the important sources of organic matter in road dust in Xi'an were fuel combustion and industrial production. The mean value of dust oxidative toxicity was (0.34±0.08) pmol·(min·µg)-1, with the water-insoluble fraction providing 70% of the total oxidative toxicity of dust particles, which was 2.4 times higher than the water-soluble fraction. The main precursors of oxidative toxicity of dust particles were metal elements, and special types of organic substances were also one of the important oxidative toxicity precursors, among which chromophore organic matter was the main cause of OP production in the WSM fraction (r=0.35, P<0.01), and protein-like organic matter and highly oxidized HULIS in WSM may have been the main two types of organic substances for OP production. However, there was no significant correlation between organic matter concentration in MSM and water-insoluble OP (OPTotal-OPWSM) (r=-0.04, P>0.1), so the oxidative toxicity of the water-insoluble particulate matter fraction was mainly generated from non-organic matter.

Symptom Status, Clinical Subtypes, and Prognosis in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation from the Middle East Region (from the Gulf-SAFE Registry).

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is often asymptomatic. The prognosis of asymptomatic AF is at least similar or worse than symptomatic AF, but there are no such data from Middle East patients with AF. The Gulf-SAFE (Gulf Survey of Atrial Fibrillation Events) registry is a multicenter prospective survey of patients presenting with AF to participate medical institutions in 6 countries in the Gulf region. We investigated the prognostic outcomes of patients with asymptomatic AF in relation to clinical subtypes. A total of 2043 patients with AF were included; 541 were identified as having asymptomatic AF (26.5%) who tended to be older, with higher prevalences of hypertension, heart failure, coronary artery disease, diabetes, stroke, renal dysfunction, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and had higher Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age ≥75, Stroke (2 points), Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age ≥75 (2 points), Diabetes, Stroke (2 points), Vascular disease, Age 65-74, Sex category (CHA2DS2-VASc), and Hypertension, Age ≥65, Stroke, Bleeding history, liable INR, Elderly, Drug or alcohol use (HAS-BLED) scores (all p <0.05). After multivariable adjustment, asymptomatic AF was associated with higher risks of stroke/systematic embolism (SE) (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.18, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.10 to 4.34), all-cause mortality (aOR 2.85, 95% CI 1.90 to 4.28), and the composite outcome of stroke/SE, bleeding, and all-cause mortality (aOR 1.74, 95% CI 1.26 to 2.41). Patients with asymptomatic AF had fewer admissions for AF (aOR 0.53, 95% CI 0.32 to 0.83) and heart failure (aOR 0.58, 95% CI 0.38 to 0.86). The increased risk of stroke/SE in asymptomatic AF was more prominent among paroxysmal AF subtype (p for interaction = 0.028). In conclusion, in the Gulf-SAFE registry, patients with asymptomatic AF represent a nonbenign entity with worse outcomes compared with symptomatic AF. In paroxysmal AF, the higher risks of events were more prominent. The absence of "warning signs" and lack of timely admission in asymptomatic AF may be major reasons for the unfavorable prognosis.

The "obesity paradox" in patients with atrial fibrillation: Insights from the Gulf SAFE registry.

Background: The prognostic impact of obesity on patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) remains under-evaluated and controversial. Methods: Patients with AF from the Gulf Survey of Atrial Fibrillation Events (Gulf SAFE) registry were included, who were recruited from six countries in the Middle East Gulf region and followed for 12 months. A multivariable model was established to investigate the association of obesity with clinical outcomes, including stroke or systemic embolism (SE), bleeding, admission for heart failure (HF) or AF, all-cause mortality, and a composite outcome. Restricted cubic splines were depicted to illustrate the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and outcomes. Sensitivity analysis was also conducted. Results: A total of 1,804 patients with AF and recorded BMI entered the final analysis (mean age 56.2 ± 16.1 years, 47.0% female); 559 (31.0%) were obese (BMI over 30 kg/m2). In multivariable analysis, obesity was associated with reduced risks of stroke/systematic embolism [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.40, 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.18-0.89], bleeding [aOR 0.44, 95%CI, 0.26-0.74], HF admission (aOR 0.61, 95%CI, 0.41-0.90) and the composite outcome (aOR 0.65, 95%CI, 0.50-0.84). As a continuous variable, higher BMI was associated with lower risks for stroke/SE, bleeding, HF admission, all-cause mortality, and the composite outcome as demonstrated by the accumulated incidence of events and restricted cubic splines. This "protective effect" of obesity was more prominent in some subgroups of patients. Conclusion: Among patients with AF, obesity and higher BMI were associated with a more favorable prognosis in the Gulf SAFE registry. The underlying mechanisms for this obesity "paradox" merit further exploration.

Cardiovascular Health and Atrial Fibrillation or Flutter: A Cross-Sectional Study from ELSA-Brasil. / Saúde Cardiovascular e Fibrilação ou Flutter Atrial: Um Estudo Transversal do ELSA-Brasil.

BACKGROUND: The association between ideal cardiovascular health (ICVH) status and atrial fibrillation or flutter (AFF) diagnosis has been less studied compared to other cardiovascular diseases. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the association between AFF diagnosis and ICVH metrics and scores in the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil). METHODS: This study analyzed data from 13,141 participants with complete data. Electrocardiographic tracings were coded according to the Minnesota Coding System, in a centralized reading center. ICVH metrics (diet, physical activity, body mass index, smoking, blood pressure, fasting plasma glucose, and total cholesterol) and scores were calculated as proposed by the American Heart Association. Crude and adjusted binary logistic regression models were built to analyze the association of ICVH metrics and scores with AFF diagnosis. Significance level was set at 0.05. RESULTS: The sample had a median age of 55 years and 54.4% were women. In adjusted models, ICVH scores were not significantly associated with prevalent AFF diagnosis (odds ratio [OR]:0.96; 95% confidence interval [95% CI]:0.80-1.16; p=0.70). Ideal blood pressure (OR:0.33; 95% CI:0.15-0.74; p=0.007) and total cholesterol (OR:1.88; 95% CI:1.19-2.98; p=0.007) profiles were significantly associated with AFF diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: No significant associations were identified between global ICVH scores and AFF diagnosis after multivariable adjustment in our analyses, at least partially due to the antagonistic associations of AFF with blood pressure and total cholesterol ICVH metrics. Our results suggest that estimating the prevention of AFF burden using global ICVH scores may not be adequate, and ICVH metrics should be considered in separate.

FUNDAMENTO: A associação entre o status de saúde cardiovascular ideal ( ideal cardiovascular health ( ICVH) e diagnóstico de fibrilação ou flutter atrial (FFA) foi menos estudado em comparação a outras doenças cardiovasculares. OBJETIVOS: Analisar a associação entre o diagnóstico de FFA e métricas e escores de ICVH no Estudo Longitudinal de Saúde do Adulto (ELSA-Brasil). MÉTODOS: Este estudo analisou dados de 13141 participantes com dados completos. Os traçados eletrocardiográficos foram codificados de acordo com o Sistema de Minnesota, em um centro de leitura centralizado. As métricas do ICVH (dieta, atividade física, índice de massa corporal, tabagismo, glicemia de jeju, e colesterol total) e escores do ICVH foram calculados conforme proposto pela American Heart Association . Modelos de regressão logística bruta e ajustada foram construídos para analisar associações de métricas e escores do ICVH com diagnóstico de FFA. O nível de significância foi estabelecido em 0,05. RESULTADOS: A idade mediana da amostra foi de 55 anos, e 54,4% eram mulheres. Nos modelos ajustados, os escores de ICVH não apresentaram associação significativa com diagnóstico de FFA prevalente [odds ratio (OR):0,96; intervalo de confiança de 95% (IC95%):0,80-1,16; p=0,70). Perfis de pressão arterial ideal (OR:0,33; IC95%:0,1-0,74; p=0,007) e colesterol total ideal (OR:1,88; IC95%:1,19-2,98; p=0,007) foram significativamente associados com o diagnóstico de FFA. CONCLUSÕES: Não foram identificadas associações significativas entre escores de ICVH global e diagnóstico de FFA após ajuste multivariado em nossas análises, devido, ao menos em parte, às associações antagônicas da FFA com métricas de pressão arterial e de colesterol total do ICVH. Nossos resultados sugerem que estimar a prevenção da FFA por meio de escore de ICVH global pode não ser adequado, e as métricas do ICVH devem ser consideradas separadamente.

Identifying At-Risk Patients for Sustained Atrial High-Rate Episodes Using the C2HEST Score: The West Birmingham Atrial Fibrillation Project.

Background Sustained atrial high-rate episodes (SAHREs) among individuals with a cardiac implantable electronic device are associated with an increased risk of adverse outcomes. Risk stratification for the development of SAHREs has never been investigated. We aimed to assess the performance of the C2HEST (coronary artery disease or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [1 point each], hypertension [1 point], elderly [age ≥75 years, 2 points], systolic heart failure [2 points], thyroid disease [1 point]) score in predicting SAHREs in patients with cardiac implantable electronic devices without atrial fibrillation. Methods and Results Five Hundred consecutive patients with cardiac implantable electronic devices in the West Birmingham Atrial Fibrillation Project in the United Kingdom were followed since the procedure to observe the development of SAHREs, defined by atrial high-rate episodes lasting >24 hours. Risk factors and incidence of SAHREs were analyzed. The predictive value of the C2HEST score for SAHRE prediction was evaluated. Over a mean follow-up of 53.1 months, 44 (8.8%) patients developed SAHREs. SAHREs were associated with higher all-cause mortality (P<0.001) and ischemic stroke (P=0.001). Age and heart failure were associated with SAHRE occurrence. The incidence of SAHREs increased by the C2HEST score (39% higher risk per point increase). Among patients with a C2HEST score ≥4, the incidence of SAHREs was 3.62% per year (95% CI, 2.14-5.16). The C2HEST score had moderate predictive capability (area under the curve, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.64-0.81) and discriminative ability (log-rank P=0.003), which was better than other clinical scores (CHA2DS2-VASc, CHADS2, HATCH). Conclusions The C2HEST score predicted SAHRE incidence in patients without atrial fibrillation who had an cardiac implantable electronic device, with the highest risk seen in patients with a C2HEST score ≥4 The benefit of using the C2HEST score in clinical practice in this patient population needs further investigation.

Refining age stratum of the C2HEST score for predicting incident atrial fibrillation in a hospital-based Chinese population.

BACKGROUND: The C2HEST score (C2: coronary artery disease [CAD] / chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [COPD] (1 point each); H: Hypertension; E: Elderly (Age≥75, doubled); S: Systolic heart failure (doubled); T: Thyroid disease (hyperthyroidism)) has been validated to predict incident atrial fibrillation (AF). Its performance in the hospital-based Chinese population has never been evaluated. METHODS: Risk factors for incident AF were investigated in a hospital-based population. Comparison of the C2HEST score and other clinical scores with the capacity of predicting incident AF was conducted using area under the curves (AUC), net reclassification index (NRI), integrated discriminative improvement (IDI), and decision curve analysis (DCA). An age-stratified criterion was used to refine the C2HEST score to form a modified C2HEST score (mC2HEST). The performance of the mC2HEST score was also evaluated. RESULTS: A total of 23,523 patients entered the study with 520 developed AF during 2.84 ± 3.56 years of follow-up. Risk factors for incident AF included age, male sex, hypertension, CAD, COPD, previous ischemic stroke, hyperthyroidism, and heart failure. Age ≥65 years has significantly increased the risk of AF, which was considered as the age cutoff for a modified C2HEST score (mC2HEST). The risk of AF increased by 89% per one-point increase of the mC2HEST score. The mC2HEST score showed better predictive performance (AUC of 0.809) compared with the original C2HEST (AUC of 0.752), CHA2DS2-VASc (0.756), HATCH (0.722), and HAVOC (0.758) scores, also as estimated by IDI, NRI and DCA. Among those enrolled after 2012, the mC2HEST score had numerically higher AUC (0.849) compared with the C2HEST score (0.826) and the other scores. CONCLUSION: In a hospital-based Chinese population, by refining the age strata of the original C2HEST score, the mC2HEST score had significantly increased predictive accuracy and discriminative capability for incident AF. The clinical benefits of the application of novel mC2HEST score needs further validation in multiple settings.

One-year all-cause mortality risk among atrial fibrillation patients in Middle East with and without diabetes: The Gulf SAFE registry.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) poses a great risk of mortality, especially when associated with diabetes mellitus (DM). OBJECTIVES: We aimed to investigate the rate and risk factors for mortality among AF patients with and without DM in the population from the Middle East where it has never been investigated before. METHODS: We analyzed the Gulf-SAFE registry, involving patients with nonvalvular AF from the Middle East, for one-year all-cause mortality. The predictive capability of the CHA2DS2-VASc score for death was also investigated. RESULTS: Among a total of 2043 AF patients 606 had DM. Patients with DM were older and had significantly higher prevalence of multiple comorbidities (p < 0.05, respectively). Among patients with DM, age ≥ 75 (relative risk 2.34, 95% confidence interval 1.19-4.61), heart failure (HF) (RR 2.14, 95%CI 1.03-4.43), peripheral vascular disease (PVD) (RR 3.36, 95%CI 1.22-9.30) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) (RR 2.60, 95%CI 1.16-5.81) were independent risk factors for one year all-cause mortality. Patients with DM had significantly higher rates of heart failure and AF-related hospital admissions, all-cause mortality and composite outcome rates, in one year follow up. Among patients with DM, the CHA2DS2-VASc score was predictive of one-year all-cause mortality with c-index of 0.741 (95%CI 0.688-0.794). CONCLUSIONS: AF patients in Middle East with DM have a higher risk for all-cause mortality, HF and AF admission and composite outcome, compared to patients without DM. Multiple risk factors contribute to the higher mortality rate among patients with DM.

Compliance of Atrial Fibrillation Treatment with the Atrial Fibrillation Better Care (ABC) Pathway Improves the Clinical Outcomes in the Middle East Population: A Report from the Gulf Survey of Atrial Fibrillation Events (SAFE) Registry.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with substantially increased risk of cardiovascular events and overall mortality. The Atrial fibrillation Better Care (A-Avoid stroke, B-Better symptom management, C-Cardiovascular and comorbidity risk management) pathway provides a simple and comprehensive approach for integrated AF therapy. This study's goals were to evaluate the ABC pathway compliance and determine the main gaps in AF management in the Middle East population, and to assess the impact of ABC pathway adherence on the all-cause mortality and composite outcome in AF patients. 2021 patients (mean age 57; 52% male) from the Gulf SAFE registry were studied. We evaluated: A-appropriate implementation of OACs according to CHA2DS2-VASc score; B-symptom control according to European Heart Rhythm Association (EHRA) symptom scale; C-proper cardiovascular comorbidities management. The primary endpoints were the composite cardiovascular outcome (ischemic stroke or systemic embolism, all-cause death and cardiovascular hospitalization) and all-cause mortality. One-hundred and sixty-eight (8.3%) patients were optimally managed according to adherence with the ABC pathway. Over the one-year follow up (FU), there were 578 composite outcome events and 224 deaths. Patients managed with integrated care had significantly lower rates for the composite outcome and mortality comparing to non-ABC group (20.8% vs. 29.3%, p = 0.02 and 7.3% vs. 13.1%, p = 0.033, respectively). On multivariable analysis, ABC compliance was independently associated with reduced risk of composite outcome (HR 0.53; 95% CI 0.36-0.8, p = 0.002) and death (HR 0.46; 95% CI 0.25-0.86, p = 0.015). Integrated ABC pathway adherent care resulted in the reduced composite outcome and all-cause mortality in AF patients from Middle East, highlighting the necessity of promoting comprehensive holistic and integrated care management of AF.

Stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation: State of the art.

Stroke prevention is the cornerstone of the management of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Individual stroke risk stratification is generally the first step of deciding whether oral anticoagulation (OAC) will benefit patients with AF. Given that existing approaches to the prediction of 'high-risk' subjects are of limited value, the initial focus should be the identification of 'low-risk' patients who do not need antithrombotic therapy. For this, the CHA2DS2-VASc score (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥ 75 [2 points], diabetes mellitus, previous stroke/transient ischemic attack [2 points], vascular disease, age 65-74, female sex) performs well in identifying really low-risk patients (score of 0 in males or 1 in females), for whom OAC can be omitted. The approach to AF management has changed, with the non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) providing relatively better efficacy, safety and convenience compared with the traditional vitamin K antagonists (VKAs). The latter drugs are performing well, if attention is directed towards good quality anticoagulation control, as reflected by a time in therapeutic range (TTR) >70%. Nevertheless, OAC use remains suboptimal especially in some regions, such as Asia and Africa. Long-term adherence and quality of OAC use need to be maintained for better outcomes in patients with AF.

Atrial high rate episodes in patients with cardiac implantable electronic devices: implications for clinical outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Atrial high rate episodes (AHREs) detected by cardiac implantable electronic devices (CIEDs) are associated with an increased risk of stroke. However, the impact of AHRE on improving stroke risk stratification scheme remains uncertain. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to assess the impact of AHRE on prognosis in relation with cardiovascular events and risk stratification. METHODS: A total of 856 consecutive patients who had dual-chamber CIEDs implanted were retrospectively analyzed. To detect AHREs, they were monitored for 6 months after CIEDs' implantation and were followed for a mean of 4.0 years for clinical outcomes such as thromboembolism or death. RESULTS: Overall, 125 (14.6%) of patients developed AHREs within the first 6 months (median age 72.0 years, 39.3% female). Patients with AHREs had a high rate of thromboembolism (2.6%/year) and mortality (3.0%/year). On multivariate analysis, AHRE was significantly associated with increased risk of thromboembolism [hazard ratio (HR) 3.40; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.38-8.37, P = 0.01] and death (HR 3.47; 95% CI 1.51-7.95; P < 0.01). The predictive abilities of the CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores were modest, with no significant improvements by adding AHRE to those scores. However, the integrated discrimination improvement and net reclassification improvement showed that the addition of AHRE to the CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores statistically improved their predictive ability for the composite outcome. CONCLUSIONS: AHRE was an independent factor associated with increased risk of clinical outcomes. The addition of AHRE to the clinical risk scores significantly improved discrimination for thromboembolism or death.

One-year risks of stroke and mortality in patients with atrial fibrillation from different clinical settings: The Gulf SAFE registry and Darlington AF registry.

BACKGROUND: Differences exist in oral anticoagulation (OAC) use between different populations with atrial fibrillation (AF), which may be associated with varying outcomes. PURPOSE: We aimed to provide patient level comparisons of two cohorts of patients with AF, from the United Kingdom (UK) and Middle East (ME). METHODS: The clinical characteristics, prescription of OAC, one-year risk of stroke and mortality were compared between individual patients with AF included into the Darlington AF registry (UK, n = 2258) and the Gulf SAFE (Survey of atrial fibrillation events) registry (ME, n = 1740). RESULTS: A high percentage of patients from the Darlington registry were candidates for OAC (i.e., CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥2 in males or ≥3 in females; 82.0% in Darlington and 57.1% in Gulf SAFE). OAC use was suboptimal (52.0% in Darlington vs 58.4% in Gulf SAFE). One-year rates of stroke and mortality were high in both populations, especially in those with CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥2 in males and ≥3 in females (Darlington vs. Gulf SAFE: 3.51% vs. 5.63 for stroke; 11.4% vs. 16.8% for mortality). On multivariate analyses, female sex and previous stroke were independently associated with stroke events; while elderly age, female sex, vascular disease and heart failure were independent risk factors for mortality (all p < 0.05). Patients from Gulf SAFE registry had higher risk of stroke (odds ratio, 2.18 [1.47-3.23]) and mortality (odds ratio, 1.67 [1.31-2.14]) compared with those from Darlington registry. The CHA2DS2-VASc score showed good discrimination in predicting one-year risk of stroke (area under curve, 0.71 [0.65-0.76] in non-anticoagulated patients) and mortality (area under curve, 0.70 [0.68-0.72]) in the whole study population, as well as in Darlington or Gulf SAFE registry separately. CONCLUSIONS: Stroke prevention was generally suboptimal in patient cohorts from the two registries, which was associated with high one-year risks of stroke and mortality, particularly so among patients from the Gulf SAFE registry. The higher risks for stroke and mortality in AF patients from the Gulf SAFE registry (compared to a UK cohort) merit further implementation of cardiovascular prevention strategies.

Secondary stroke prevention and guideline adherent antithrombotic treatment in patients with atrial fibrillation: Insights from the Gulf Survey of atrial fibrillation events (Gulf SAFE).

BACKGROUND: Anticoagulation therapy in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) is well established as effective thromboprophylaxis. However, AF patients with prior stroke are often treated with suboptimal antithrombotic treatment (ATT). In the present study, we investigated clinical characteristics and outcomes in AF patients with versus without prior stoke, in relation to guideline adherence in ATT. METHODS: We used data from the Gulf SAFE registry, which included patients with AF who presented to hospitals in Gulf countries of the Middle East. Adherence to guideline recommended ATT was assessed against the European Society of Cardiology guidelines. RESULTS: Of 1860 patients, 15.4% had a history of stroke (secondary stroke prevention). For secondary stroke prevention, 62.0% of patients were prescribed oral anticoagulants, while 27.9% were still prescribed antiplatelet therapy alone and 10.1% received no ATT. Overall, 49.0% were treated with guideline adherent ATT, 25.5% were undertreated, and 25.4% were overtreated. On multivariable logistic regression analysis, undertreatment (OR; 2.763, 95% CI; 1.426-5.352, p = 0.003) was significantly associated with an increased risk of 1-year stroke. On the other hand, overtreatment was significantly associated with an increased risk of 1-year bleeding (OR; 3.294, 95% CI; 1.517-7.152, p = 0.003). CONCLUSIONS: Only half of the AF patients received optimal ATT for stroke prevention if we apply guideline recommendations. Guideline adherent ATT significantly reduced the risk of stroke and bleeding compared with non-guideline adherent ATT.

Diagnostic Performance of a Smart Device With Photoplethysmography Technology for Atrial Fibrillation Detection: Pilot Study (Pre-mAFA II Registry).

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained cardiac arrhythmia. The asymptomatic nature and paroxysmal frequency of AF lead to suboptimal early detection. A novel technology, photoplethysmography (PPG), has been developed for AF screening. However, there has been limited validation of mobile phone and smart band apps with PPG compared to 12-lead electrocardiograms (ECG). OBJECTIVE: We investigated the feasibility and accuracy of a mobile phone and smart band for AF detection using pulse data measured by PPG. METHODS: A total of 112 consecutive inpatients were recruited from the Chinese PLA General Hospital from March 15 to April 1, 2018. Participants were simultaneously tested with mobile phones (HUAWEI Mate 9, HUAWEI Honor 7X), smart bands (HUAWEI Band 2), and 12-lead ECG for 3 minutes. RESULTS: In all, 108 patients (56 with normal sinus rhythm, 52 with persistent AF) were enrolled in the final analysis after excluding four patients with unclear cardiac rhythms. The corresponding sensitivity and specificity of the smart band PPG were 95.36% (95% CI 92.00%-97.40%) and 99.70% (95% CI 98.08%-99.98%), respectively. The positive predictive value of the smart band PPG was 99.63% (95% CI 97.61%-99.98%), the negative predictive value was 96.24% (95% CI 93.50%-97.90%), and the accuracy was 97.72% (95% CI 96.11%-98.70%). Moreover, the diagnostic sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy of mobile phones with PPG for AF detection were over 94%. There was no significant difference after further statistical analysis of the results from the different smart devices compared with the gold-standard ECG (P>.99). CONCLUSIONS: The algorithm based on mobile phones and smart bands with PPG demonstrated good performance in detecting AF and may represent a convenient tool for AF detection in at-risk individuals, allowing widespread screening of AF in the population. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Chinese Clinical Trial Registry ChiCTR-OOC-17014138; http://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=24191 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation/76WXknvE6).

Atrial high-rate episodes and thromboembolism in patients without atrial fibrillation: The West Birmingham Atrial Fibrillation Project.

BACKGROUND: Patients with cardiac implantable electronic device (CIED) developing atrial high-rate episodes (AHRE) have a significant risk of thromboembolic events (TEs), but risk factors have been scarcely investigated. OBJECTIVES: To analyze risk factors for TEs in a contemporary cohort of patients with CIED. METHODS: Consecutive non-AF patients without anticoagulation at baseline were followed up after the CIED implantation. The role of newly-developed AHRE and other risk factors for TEs were analyzed using a time-dependent Cox regression model and Kaplan-Meier analysis with log-rank tests. RESULTS: A total of 594 CIED patients were followed up for a mean of 4.2 years: 175 developed AHRE (29.5%; incident rate [IR] 8.80% per patient-year). Of those, 33 experienced TEs (5.5%; IR 1.38% per patient-year). Incidence of TEs was low in patients with a CHA2DS2-VASc score < 2 (male)/<3 (female) (AHRE vs. no-AHRE, 0.60% vs. 0.00% per patient-year, p = 0.469) and high in those with score ≥ 2 (male)/≥3 (female) (AHRE vs. no-AHRE, 2.12% vs. 1.36% per patient-year, p = 0.209), regardless of the AHRE presence. AHRE was not significantly associated with TEs (hazard ratio [HR], 1.46 [0.64-3.33]). There was no temporal relationship between AHRE and TEs. Baseline CHA2DS2-VASc score was independently associated with TEs (HR, 1.41 [1.13-1.75]) on multivariate analysis, but not AHRE. CONCLUSIONS: Thromboembolic risk in patients with CIED is mainly driven by comorbidity burden, i.e., CHA2DS2-VASc score, rather than AHRE per se. Decision-making on stroke prevention needs to focus on comorbidity burden and not merely on the presence or absence of AHRE in CIED patients.

A Simple Clinical Risk Score (C2HEST) for Predicting Incident Atrial Fibrillation in Asian Subjects: Derivation in 471,446 Chinese Subjects, With Internal Validation and External Application in 451,199 Korean Subjects.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) is increasing, conferring a major health-care issue in Asia. No risk score for predicting incident AF has been specifically developed in Asian subjects. Our aim was to investigate risk factors for incident AF in Asian subjects and to combine them into a simple clinical risk score. METHODS: Risk factors for incident AF were analyzed in 471,446 subjects from the Chinese Yunnan Insurance Database (internal derivation cohort) and then combined into a simple clinical risk score. External application of the new score was performed in 451,199 subjects from the Korean National Health Insurance Service (external cohort). RESULTS: In the internal cohort, structural heart disease (SHD), heart failure (HF), age ≥ 75 years, coronary artery disease (CAD), hyperthyroidism, COPD, and hypertension were associated with incident AF. Given the low prevalence and the strong association of SHD with incident AF (hazard ratio, 26.07; 95% CI, 18.22-37.30; P < .001), these patients should be independently considered as high risk for AF and were excluded from the analysis. The remaining predictors were combined into the new simple C2HEST score: C2: CAD/COPD (1 point each); H: hypertension (1 point); E: elderly (age ≥ 75 years, 2 points); S: systolic HF (2 points); and T: thyroid disease (hyperthyroidism, 1 point). The C2HEST score showed good discrimination with the area under the curve (AUC) of 0.75 (95% CI, 0.73-0.77) and had good calibration (P = .774). The score was internally validated by bootstrap sampling procedure, giving an AUC of 0.75 (95% CI, 0.73-0.77). External application gave an AUC of 0.65 (95% CI, 0.65-0.66). The C2HEST score was superior to CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores in both cohorts in predicting incident AF. CONCLUSIONS: We have developed and validated the C2HEST score as a simple clinical tool to assess the individual risk of developing AF in the Asian population without SHD.