Serum alpha-fetoprotein response as a preoperative prognostic indicator in unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma with salvage hepatectomy following conversion therapy: a multicenter retrospective study.

Background: This study evaluates the efficacy of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) response as a surrogate marker for determining recurrence-free survival (RFS) in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (uHCC) who undergo salvage hepatectomy following conversion therapy with tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) and anti-PD-1 antibody-based regimen. Methods: This multicenter retrospective study included 74 patients with uHCC and positive AFP (>20 ng/mL) at diagnosis, who underwent salvage hepatectomy after treatment with TKIs and anti-PD-1 antibody-based regimens. The association between AFP response-defined as a ≥ 80% decrease in final AFP levels before salvage hepatectomy from diagnosis-and RFS post-hepatectomy was investigated. Results: AFP responders demonstrated significantly better postoperative RFS compared to non-responders (P<0.001). The median RFS was not reached for AFP responders, with 1-year and 2-year RFS rates of 81.3% and 70.8%, respectively. In contrast, AFP non-responders had a median RFS of 7.43 months, with 1-year and 2-year RFS rates at 37.1% and 37.1%, respectively. Multivariate Cox regression analysis identified AFP response as an independent predictor of RFS. Integrating AFP response with radiologic tumor response facilitated further stratification of patients into distinct risk categories: those with radiologic remission experienced the most favorable RFS, followed by patients with partial response/stable disease and AFP response, and the least favorable RFS among patients with partial response/stable disease but without AFP response. Sensitivity analyses further confirmed the association between AFP response and improved RFS across various cutoff values and in patients with AFP ≥ 200 ng/mL at diagnosis (all P<0.05). Conclusion: The "20-80" rule based on AFP response could be helpful for clinicians to preoperatively stratify the risk of patients undergoing salvage hepatectomy, enabling identification and management of those unlikely to benefit from this procedure.

Prognostic implications of preoperative, postoperative, and dynamic changes of alpha-fetoprotein and des-gamma (γ)-carboxy prothrombin expression pattern for hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatic resection: a multicenter observational study.

Background: The utility of pre- and post-operative alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and des-gamma (γ)-carboxy prothrombin (DCP) expression patterns and their dynamic changes as predictors of the outcome of hepatic resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has yet to be well elucidated. Methods: From a multicenter database, AFP and DCP data during the week prior to surgery and the first post-discharge outpatient visit (within 1-2 months after surgery) were collected from patients with HCC who underwent hepatectomy. AFP-DCP expression patterns were categorized according to the number of positive tumor markers (AFP ≥ 20ng/mL, DCP ≥ 40mAU/mL), including double-negative, single-positive, and double-positive. Changes in the AFP-DCP expression patterns were delineated based on variations in the number of positive tumor markers when comparing pre- and post-operative patterns. Results: Preoperatively, 53 patients (8.3%), 337 patients (52.8%), and 248 patients (38.9%) exhibited double-negative, single-positive, and double-positive AFP-DCP expression patterns, respectively. Postoperatively, 463 patients (72.6%), 130 patients (20.4%), and 45 patients (7.0%) showed double-negative, single-positive, and double-positive AFP-DCP expression patterns, respectively. Survival analysis showed a progressive decrease in recurrence-free (RFS) and overall survival (OS) as the number of postoperative positive tumor markers increased (both P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis showed that postoperative AFP-DCP expression pattern, but not preoperative AFP-DCP expression pattern, was an independent risk factor for RFS and OS. Further analysis showed that for patients with positive preoperative markers, prognosis gradually improves as positive markers decrease postoperatively. In particular, when all postoperative markers turned negative, the prognosis was consistent with that of preoperative double-negative patients, regardless of the initial number of positive markers. Conclusions: AFP-DCP expression patterns, particularly postoperative patterns, serve as vital sources of information for prognostic evaluation following hepatectomy for HCC. Moreover, changes in AFP-DCP expression patterns from pre- to post-operation enable dynamic prognostic risk stratification postoperatively, aiding the development of individualized follow-up strategies.

Development and validation of nomograms to predict survival and recurrence after hepatectomy for intermediate/advanced (BCLC stage B/C) hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Despite the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer system discouraging hepatectomy for intermediate/advanced hepatocellular carcinoma, the procedure is still performed worldwide, particularly in Asia. This study aimed to develop and validate nomograms for predicting survival and recurrence for these patients. METHODS: We analyzed patients who underwent curative-intent hepatectomy for intermediate/advanced hepatocellular carcinoma between 2010 and 2020 across 3 Chinese hospitals. The Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital cohort was used as the training cohort for the nomogram construction, and the Jilin First Hospital and Fujian Mengchao Hepatobiliary Hospital cohorts served as the external validation cohorts. Independent preoperative predictors for survival and recurrence were identified through univariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses. Predictive accuracy was measured using the concordance index and calibration curves. The predictive performance between nomograms and conventional hepatocellular carcinoma staging systems was compared. RESULTS: A total of 1,328 patients met the inclusion criteria. The nomograms for predicting survival and recurrence were developed using 10 and 6 independent variables, respectively. Nomograms' concordance indices in the training cohort were 0.777 (95% confidence interval 0.759-0.800) and 0.719 (95% confidence interval 0.697-0.742) for survival and recurrence, outperforming 4 conventional staging systems (P < .001). Nomograms accurately stratified risk into low, intermediate, and high subgroups. These results were validated well by 2 external validation cohorts. CONCLUSION: We developed and validated nomograms predicting survival and recurrence for patients with intermediate/advanced hepatocellular carcinoma, contradicting Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer surgical guidelines. These nomograms may facilitate clinicians to formulate personalized surgical decisions, estimate long-term prognosis, and strategize neoadjuvant/adjuvant anti-recurrence therapy.

Association of Pringle maneuver with postoperative recurrence and survival following hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma: a multicenter propensity score and competing-risks regression analysis.

Background: The application of Pringle maneuver (PM) during hepatectomy reduces intraoperative blood loss and the need for perioperative transfusion, but its effect on long-term recurrence and survival for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains controversial. We sought to determine the association between the application of PM and post-hepatectomy oncologic outcomes for patients with HCC. Methods: Patients who underwent curative hepatectomy for HCC at 9 Chinese hospitals from January 2010 to December 2018 were identified. Using two propensity score methods [propensity score matching (PSM) and inverse probability of treatment weight (IPTW)], cumulative recurrence rate and cancer-specific mortality (CSM) were compared between the patients in the PM and non-PM groups. Multivariate competing-risks regression models were performed to adjust for the effect of non-cancer-specific mortality and other prognostic risk factors. Results: Of the 2,798 included patients, 2,404 and 394 did and did not adopt PM (the PM and non-PM groups), respectively. The rates of intraoperative blood transfusion, postoperative 30-day mortality and morbidity were comparable between the two groups (all P>0.05). In the PSM cohort by the 1:3 ratio, compared to 382 patients in the non-PM group, 1,146 patients in the PM group also had the higher cumulative 5-year recurrence rate and CSM (63.9% and 39.1% vs. 55.3% and 31.6%, both P<0.05). Similar results were also yielded in the entire cohort and the IPTW cohort. Multivariate competing-risks regression analyses demonstrated that no application of the PM was independently associated with lower recurrence rate and CSM based on various analytical cohorts [hazard ratio (HR), 0.82 and 0.77 in the adjusted entire cohort, HR 0.80 and 0.73 in the PSM cohort, and HR 0.80 and 0.76 in the IPTW cohort, respectively]. Conclusions: The findings suggested that no application of PM during hepatectomy for patients with HCC reduced the risk of postoperative recurrence and cancer-specific death by approximately 20-25%.

Long-term outcomes following hepatectomy in patients with lean non-alcoholic fatty liver disease-associated hepatocellular carcinoma versus overweight and obese counterparts: A multicenter analysis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: With the rising prevalence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) as a significant etiology for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), lean NAFLD-HCC has emerged as a specific distinct subtype. This study sought to investigate long-term outcomes following curative-intent hepatectomy for early-stage NAFLD-HCC among lean patients compared with overweight and obese individuals. METHODS: A multicenter retrospective analysis was used to assess early-stage NAFLD-HCC patients undergoing curative-intent hepatectomy between 2009 and 2022. Patients were stratified by preoperative body mass index (BMI) into the lean (<23.0 kg/m2), overweight (23.0-27.4 kg/m2) and obese (≥27.5 kg/m2) groups. Study endpoints were overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS), which were compared among groups. RESULTS: Among 309 patients with NAFLD-HCC, 66 (21.3 %), 176 (57.0 %), and 67 (21.7 %) were lean, overweight, and obese, respectively. The three groups were similar relative to most liver, tumor, and surgery-related variables. Compared with overweight patients (71.3 % and 55.6 %), the lean individuals had a worse 5-year OS and RFS (55.4 % and 35.1 %, P = 0.017 and 0.002, respectively), which were comparable to obese patients (48.5 % and 38.2 %, P = 0.939 and 0.442, respectively). After adjustment for confounding factors, multivariable Cox-regression analysis identified that lean bodyweight was independently associated with decreased OS (hazard ratio: 1.69; 95 % confidence interval: 1.06-2.71; P = 0.029) and RFS (hazard ratio: 1.72; 95 % confidence interval: 1.17-2.52; P = 0.006) following curative-intent hepatectomy for early-stage NAFLD-HCC. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with overweight patients, individuals with lean NAFLD-HCC had inferior long-term oncological survival after hepatectomy for early-stage NAFLD-HCC. These data highlight the need for examination of the distinct carcinogenic pathways of lean NAFLD-HCC and its potential consequences in HCC recurrence.