Impact of Systematic Factors on the Outbreak Outcomes of the Novel COVID-19 Disease in China: Factor Analysis Study.

BACKGROUND: The novel COVID-19 disease has spread worldwide, resulting in a new pandemic. The Chinese government implemented strong intervention measures in the early stage of the epidemic, including strict travel bans and social distancing policies. Prioritizing the analysis of different contributing factors to outbreak outcomes is important for the precise prevention and control of infectious diseases. We proposed a novel framework for resolving this issue and applied it to data from China. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to systematically identify national-level and city-level contributing factors to the control of COVID-19 in China. METHODS: Daily COVID-19 case data and related multidimensional data, including travel-related, medical, socioeconomic, environmental, and influenza-like illness factors, from 343 cities in China were collected. A correlation analysis and interpretable machine learning algorithm were used to evaluate the quantitative contribution of factors to new cases and COVID-19 growth rates during the epidemic period (ie, January 17 to February 29, 2020). RESULTS: Many factors correlated with the spread of COVID-19 in China. Travel-related population movement was the main contributing factor for new cases and COVID-19 growth rates in China, and its contributions were as high as 77% and 41%, respectively. There was a clear lag effect for travel-related factors (previous vs current week: new cases, 45% vs 32%; COVID-19 growth rates, 21% vs 20%). Travel from non-Wuhan regions was the single factor with the most significant impact on COVID-19 growth rates (contribution: new cases, 12%; COVID-19 growth rate, 26%), and its contribution could not be ignored. City flow, a measure of outbreak control strength, contributed 16% and 7% to new cases and COVID-19 growth rates, respectively. Socioeconomic factors also played important roles in COVID-19 growth rates in China (contribution, 28%). Other factors, including medical, environmental, and influenza-like illness factors, also contributed to new cases and COVID-19 growth rates in China. Based on our analysis of individual cities, compared to Beijing, population flow from Wuhan and internal flow within Wenzhou were driving factors for increasing the number of new cases in Wenzhou. For Chongqing, the main contributing factor for new cases was population flow from Hubei, beyond Wuhan. The high COVID-19 growth rates in Wenzhou were driven by population-related factors. CONCLUSIONS: Many factors contributed to the COVID-19 outbreak outcomes in China. The differential effects of various factors, including specific city-level factors, emphasize the importance of precise, targeted strategies for controlling the COVID-19 outbreak and future infectious disease outbreaks.

A coupled hand and surface hygiene criterion on heterogeneous surface touch networks.

Contaminated hands of people and contaminated surfaces of inanimate objects (fomites) can spread microbes that cause enteric and respiratory infections. Thus, hand hygiene and surface hygiene are probably the most widely adopted public health interventions for controlling such infections. However, conclusions of studies on the effectiveness of these interventions are often inconsistent, likely because such studies have examined these interventions separately and thus not detected their interactions, leading to differing conclusions about their individual impact. In this study, it is proposed that hand and environmental surface hygiene (including disinfection) should be coupled to control contamination spread between surfaces, especially within heterogeneous surface touch networks. In these networks, surfaces and individuals have varying contact frequencies and patterns, reflecting the diverse and non-uniform interactions that typically occur in real-world environments. Accordingly, we propose a new theoretical framework to delineate the relationships between hand hygiene and surface hygiene. In addition, the performance of a model based on this framework that used real-world behavioural data from a graduate student office is reported. Moreover, a coupled hygiene criterion for heterogeneous networks is derived. This criterion stipulates that the product of the pathogen-removal rates for hands and surfaces must exceed a cleaning threshold to ensure the exponential decay of contamination. Failure to meet this threshold results in a non-zero steady prevalence of contamination. Furthermore, the cleaning threshold increases as the numbers of surfaces and hands increase, highlighting the significant impact of network structures on hygiene practices. Thus, extensive cleaning may be necessary in crowded indoor environments with many surfaces and occupants, such as cruise ships, to prevent super-large outbreaks of, for example, noroviral infections. Overall, the findings of this study reveal how improved and integrated hygiene control can prevent fomite transmission.

Effects of sacubitril-valsartan on heart failure patients with mid-range ejection fractions: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Aim: The effect of sacubitril-valsartan (ARNI) in heart failure (HF) patients with mid-range ejection fractions (HFmrEF) remains unclear. This study aimed to investigate the effects of ARNI in HFmrEF patients. Methods: From inception to 15 February 2022, articles were searched via PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, Whip, and Wanfang databases. Left ventricular functions, indicators related to HF, quality of life score, 6-Minute Walk Test, total effective rate, mortality, readmission rate, and adverse events were the outcomes. Relative risk (RR), weighted mean difference (WMD), and 95% confidence interval (CI) were used to evaluate the outcomes. The heterogeneity test was conducted for each indicator and measured by I2 statistics. Subgroup analysis was performed regarding the type of study and duration of treatment. Results: Sixteen studies involving 1,937 patients were included in this study. Our results showed ARNI was likely to improve left ventricular function by increasing the left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) (WMD: 2.36, 95%CI: 1.09-3.62), stroke volume (WMD: 16.800, 95%CI: 11.385-22.215), and left ventricular short-axis shortening rate (WMD: 2.05, 95%CI: 0.25-3.86), decreasing left ventricular end-diastolic dimension (WMD: -2.48, 95%CI: -3.83 to -1.13), left atrial diameter (WMD: -2.23, 95%CI: -2.83 to -1.63), C-reactive protein level (WMD: -1.40, 95%CI: -2.62 to -0.18), and N-terminal-pro B-type natriuretic peptide level (WMD: -494.92, 95%CI: -641.34 to -348.50). ARNI has a higher total effective rate (RR: 1.15, 95%CI: 1.08-1.21), Kansas City cardiomyopathy questionnaire (WMD: 4.13, 95%CI: 3.46-4.81), and 6-Minute Walk Test (WMD: 51.35, 95%CI: 26.99-75.71) compared with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEI) and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARB). In addition, ARNI decreased the readmission rate (RR: 0.54, 95%CI: 0.43-0.68) (all p < 0.05). Nevertheless, there were no significant differences in the adverse outcomes. Conclusion: This meta-analysis suggests ARNI may be an effective strategy with which to improve the left ventricular function, and quality of life, and reduce the readmission rate in HFmrEF patients. However, long-term clinical studies with large samples are still needed to further explore the efficacy and safety of ARNI compared with ACEI or ARB in the HFmrEF population.

Development of a comprehensive method combining UHPLC-CAD fingerprint, multi-components quantitative analysis for quality evaluation of Zishen Yutai Pills: A step towards quality control of Chinese patent medicine.

Zishen Yutai Pills (ZYP) is a well-known Chinese patent medicine which has been used to prevent recurrent miscarriage and treat threatened abortion in China. In this study, a comprehensive strategy combining ultrahigh performance liquid chromatography coupled with charged aerosol detector (UHPLC-CAD) fingerprint and multi-components quantitative analysis was developed and validated for quality evaluation of ZYP. For fingerprint analysis, a total of 52 characteristic peaks were selected to evaluate the similarities of 16 batches of ZYP. In addition, combining the chemical fingerprint profile with an advanced hybrid LTQ-Orbitrap mass spectrometer, 281 compounds were identified or tentatively identified in ZYP based on chemical standards, accurate mass and fragmentation information. Moreover, 18 chemical markers were simultaneously determined within 13 min by ultra-performance liquid chromatography couple to tandem mass spectrometry (UPLC-MS/MS) with positive-negative conversion multiple reaction monitor (+/-MRM) technique. This method has been validated and exhibited satisfactory sensitivity, precision, reproducibility and accuracy. The validated quantitative method was successfully applied to the analysis of 16 batches of ZYP samples. The combination of UHPLC-CAD fingerprint and multi-components quantification has been proved to be an efficient and reliable strategy for quality control of ZYP and could be considered as a reference for quality evaluation of Chinese patent medicine.

Multiple fingerprint profiling for quality evaluation of polysaccharides and related biological activity analysis of Chinese patent drugs: Zishen Yutai Pills as a case study.

ETHNOPHARMACOLOGICAL RELEVANCE: Zishen Yutai Pills (ZYP), a famous traditional Chinese patent medicine, has been widely applied to avoid recurrent miscarriage and treat threatened abortion. Polysaccharides of ZYP (ZYPPs) play an essential role in the theraprutic effects of ZYP. However, the complex compositions of ZYP and the complicated structure of ZYPPs have posed great challenges and barriers to the quality evaluation of ZYP. AIM OF THE STUDY: To identify and characterize the ZYPPs for better quality control of ZYP, a reliable and valid quality control system was established in this study. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A multi-fingerprint profile strategy based on HPSEC-MALL-RID, FT-IR, and HPLC (complete acid digested fingerprint, partial acid digested fingerprint and enzymatically digested fingerprint) was established to identify and discriminate the chemical structure of ZYPPs. Besides, the purpose of revealing the relationships between structure and biological activity of ZYPPs, their chemical characteristics, in vitro antioxidant and anti-glycation activities were investigated and discussed. RESULTS: The similarity evaluation of ZYPPs indicated ZYPPs from different batches showed a high similarity based on the correlation coefficient values of multi-fingerprints. Furthermore, ZYPPs exhibited remarkable antioxidant and antiglycation properties, which might be attributed to their molecular weights and the content of uronic acids. CONCLUSIONS: These results indicated that the multiple fingerprint technique was reliable and effective for the improvement of quality control of ZYPPs, suggesting the multiple fingerprint technique could also be potentially applied as a valid and feasible strategy to control the quality of polysaccharide-enriched herbal medicines.

Mechanism study on stability enhancement of adefovir dipivoxil by cocrystallization: Degradation kinetics and structure-stability correlation.

The purpose of this study is to determine the mechanism by which cocrystallization can enhance the stability of adefovir dipivoxil (AD), a diester prodrug of adefovir with known chemical stability problem. Three multi-component crystals of AD with biologically safe coformers, including gallic acid cocrystal hydrate (1:1:1), salicylate salt (1:1), and maleate salt (1:1) were prepared and characterized by thermal analysis, infrared spectroscopy, powder and single crystal X-ray diffraction. DVS measurements and stability tests were applied to evaluate the stability. The new crystalline phases exhibit improved stability compared to pure drug in the order AD gallic acid cocrystal>AD maleate>AD salicylate>AD form I. Degradation kinetics and structure-stability correlation studies demonstrate that the stability enhancement mechanism by cocrystallization involves (1) inhibition of hydrolysis of AD by replacement of drug-drug homosynthons by stronger drug-coformer heterosynthons at adenine fragments; (2) suppression of dimerization of AD by separation of adenine fragments by inserting coformers in crystal lattices; (3) further reducing rates of hydrolysis by forming hydrogen bonds with hydrate water at phosphoryl fragments. This study has important implications for use of cocrystallization approach to some easily degradable drugs in pharmaceutical.