Investigating CNS distribution of PF-05212377, a P-glycoprotein substrate, by translation of 5-HT6 receptor occupancy from non-human primates to humans.

PF-05212377 (SAM760) is a potent and selective 5-HT6 antagonist, previously under development for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease. In vitro, PF-05212377 was determined to be a P-gp/non-BCRP human transporter substrate. Species differences were observed in the in vivo brain penetration of PF-05212377 with a ratio of the unbound concentration in brain/unbound concentration in plasma (Cbu /Cpu ) of 0.05 in rat and 0.64 in non-human primates (NHP). Based on pre-clinical evidence, brain penetration and target engagement of PF-05212377 was confirmed in NHP using positron emission tomography (PET) measured 5-HT6 receptor occupancy (%RO). The NHP Cpu EC50 of PF-05212377 was 0.31 nM (consistent with the in vitro human 5HT6 Ki : 0.32 nM). P-gp has been reported to be expressed in higher abundance at the rat BBB and in similar abundance at the BBB of non-human primates and human; brain penetration of PF-05212377 in humans was postulated to be similar to that in non-human primates. In humans, PF-05212377 demonstrated dose and concentration dependent increases in 5-HT6 RO; maximal 5-HT6 RO of ∼80% was measured in humans at doses of ≥15 mg with an estimated unbound plasma EC50 of 0.37 nM (which was similar to the in vitro human 5HT6 binding Ki 0.32 nM). In conclusion, cumulative evidence from NHP and human PET RO assessments confirmed that NHP is more appropriate than the rat for the prediction of human brain penetration of PF-05212377, a P-gp/non-BCRP substrate. Clinical trial number: NCT01258751.

Metabolism of a 5HT6 Antagonist, 2-Methyl-1-(Phenylsulfonyl)-4-(Piperazin-1-yl)-1H-Benzo[d]imidazole (SAM-760): Impact of Sulfonamide Metabolism on Diminution of a Ketoconazole-Mediated Clinical Drug-Drug Interaction.

SAM-760 [(2-methyl-1-(phenylsulfonyl)-4-(piperazin-1-yl)-1H-benzo[d]imidazole)], a 5HT6 antagonist, was investigated in humans for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease. In liver microsomes and recombinant cytochrome P450 (P450) isozymes, SAM-760 was predominantly metabolized by CYP3A (∼85%). Based on these observations and an expectation of a 5-fold magnitude of interaction with moderate to strong CYP3A inhibitors, a clinical DDI study was performed. In the presence of ketoconazole, the mean Cmax and area under the plasma concentration-time curve from time zero extrapolated to infinite time values of SAM-760 showed only a modest increase by 30% and 38%, respectively. In vitro investigation of this unexpectedly low interaction was undertaken using [14C]SAM-760. Radiometric profiling in human hepatocytes confirmed all oxidative metabolites previously observed with unlabeled SAM-760; however, the predominant radiometric peak was an unexpected polar metabolite that was insensitive to the pan-P450 inhibitor 1-aminobenzotriazole. In human hepatocytes, radiometric integration attributed 43% of the total metabolism of SAM-760 to this non-P450 pathway. Using an authentic standard, this predominant metabolite was confirmed as benzenesulfinic acid. Additional investigation revealed that the benzenesulfinic acid metabolite may be a novel, nonenzymatic, thiol-mediated reductive cleavage of an aryl sulfonamide group of SAM-760. We also determined the relative contribution of P450 to the metabolism of SAM-760 in human hepatocytes by following the rate of formation of oxidative metabolites in the presence and absence of P450 isoform-specific inhibitors. The P450-mediated oxidative metabolism of SAM-760 was still primarily attributed to CYP3A (33%), with minor contributions from P450 isoforms CYP2C19 and CYP2D6. Thus, the disposition of [14C]SAM-760 in human hepatocytes via novel sulfonamide metabolism and CYP3A verified the lower than expected clinical DDI when SAM-760 was coadministered with ketoconazole.

Quantitative prediction of renal transporter-mediated clinical drug-drug interactions.

Kidney plays a critical role in the elimination of xenobiotics. Drug-drug interactions (DDIs) via inhibition of renal organic anion (OAT) and organic cation (OCT) transporters have been observed in the clinic. This study examined the quantitative predictability of renal transporter-mediated clinical DDIs based on basic and mechanistic models. In vitro transport and clinical pharmacokinetics parameters were used to quantitatively predict DDIs of victim drugs when coadministrated with OAT or OCT inhibitors, probenecid and cimetidine, respectively. The predicted changes in renal clearance (CLr) and area under the plasma concentration-time curve (AUC) were comparable to that observed in clinical studies. With probenecid, basic modeling predicted 61% cases within 25% and 94% cases within 50% of the observed CLr changes in clinic. With cimetidine, basic modeling predicted 61% cases within 25% and 92% cases within 50% of the observed CLr changes in clinic. Additionally, the mechanistic model predicted 54% cases within 25% and 92% cases within 50% of the observed AUC changes with probenecid. Notably, the magnitude of AUC changes attributable to the renal DDIs is generally less than 2-fold, unlike the DDIs associated with inhibition of CYPs and/or hepatic uptake transporters. The models were further used to evaluate the renal DDIs of Pfizer clinical candidates/drugs, and the overall predictability demonstrates their utility in the drug discovery and development settings.

Short-term effects of organic amendments on properties of a Vertisol.

Application of organic waste products as amendments has been proposed as a management option whereby soil quality of Vertisols could be improved. An incubation experiment was, therefore, conducted for 4 weeks under controlled temperature conditions (30 degrees C) to identify those potential organic amendments that might improve the quality of a Vertisol. Twelve organic amendments were investigated: cotton gin trash from three sources, cattle manure from two sources, green waste compost, chicken manure from three sources including a commercial product, biosolids and two commercial liquefied vermicomposts. Except for the biosolids, no other organic amendments had any effect on soil microbial biomass and respiration. Compared with NO3-N levels in the control, there was a 50% decrease in soil amended with 10 t ha(-1) green waste compost (65 microg g(-1)). The three different types of chicken manures increased the NO3-N concentration from 75% (228 microg g(-1)) to 226% (424 microg g(- 1)) over the control. Approximate recovery of P added by the amendment as resin-extractable soil P was 53% for cattle manure and 39% for chicken manure. Application of cattle manure resulted in a 22% increase in soil-exchangeable K over levels found in control. Organic amendments application also resulted in a significant increase in exchangeable Na concentration. Some of the organic wastes, viz. cotton gin trash (10 t ha(-1)), cattle manure (10 t ha(-1)), biosolids (10 t ha(-1)) and composted chicken manure (3 t ha(-1)) have value as a source of nutrients to soil and hence showed potential to improve Vertisol properties.

The Bioequivalence of Tafamidis 61-mg Free Acid Capsules and Tafamidis Meglumine 4 × 20-mg Capsules in Healthy Volunteers.

Tafamidis, a non-nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory benzoxazole derivative, acts as a transthyretin (TTR) stabilizer to slow progression of TTR amyloidosis (ATTR). Tafamidis meglumine, available as 20-mg capsules, is approved in more than 40 countries worldwide for the treatment of adults with early-stage symptomatic ATTR polyneuropathy. This agent, administered as an 80-mg, once-daily dose (4 × 20-mg capsules), is approved in the United States, Japan, Canada, and Brazil for the treatment of hereditary and wild-type ATTR cardiomyopathy in adults. An alternative single solid oral dosage formulation (tafamidis 61-mg free acid capsules) was developed and introduced for patient convenience (approved in the United States, United Arab Emirates, and European Union). In this single-center, open-label, randomized, 2-period, 2-sequence, crossover, multiple-dose phase 1 study, the rate and extent of absorption were compared between tafamidis 61-mg free acid capsules (test) and tafamidis meglumine 80-mg (4 × 20-mg) capsules (reference) after 7 days of repeated oral dosing under fasted conditions in 30 healthy volunteers. Ratios of adjusted geometric means (90%CI) for the test/reference formulations were 102.3 (98.0-106.8) for area under the concentration-time profile over the dosing interval and 94.1 (89.1-99.4) for the maximum observed concentration, satisfying prespecified bioequivalence acceptance criteria (90%CI, 80-125). Both tafamidis regimens had an acceptable safety/tolerability profile in this population.

The Economic Impact of New Therapeutic Interventions on Neuropsychiatric Inventory (NPI) Symptom Scores in Patients with Alzheimer Disease.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Few studies have modeled individual Neuropsychiatric Inventory (NPI) symptom scores for Alzheimer disease (AD) patients and assessed the value of therapeutic interventions that can potentially impact them. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of new AD symptomatic treatments on relevant health economic outcomes via their potential effects on cognition and neuropsychiatric symptoms such as depression, irritability, anxiety, and sleep disorder. METHODS: We enhanced the previously published AHEAD model (Assessment of Health Economics in Alzheimer's Disease) by including new variables and functional relations to capture the NPI's individual neuropsychiatric symptoms in addition to the total NPI score. This update allowed us to study the longitudinal effect of improvements in specific NPI subscale scores and the downstream impact on outcomes such as psychiatric medication use, survival, and institutional placement. RESULTS: The model base-case results showed that a hypothetical treatment with symptomatic effects on anxiety, depression, and irritability NPI subscales was not cost-effective; however, the treatment's cost-effectiveness was improved once a direct link between NPI subscales and mortality was explored or under relatively stronger treatment effects. CONCLUSION: Treatments that influence specific symptoms within the overall NPI have the potential to improve patient outcomes in a cost-effective way. This model is a useful tool for evaluating target product profiles of drugs with effect on NPI symptoms in early stages of development.

A Phase 2 clinical trial of PF-05212377 (SAM-760) in subjects with mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease with existing neuropsychiatric symptoms on a stable daily dose of donepezil.

BACKGROUND: Symptomatic benefits have been reported for 5-HT6 receptor antagonists in Alzheimer's disease (AD) trials. SAM-760 is a potent and selective 5-HT6 receptor antagonist that has demonstrated central 5-HT6 receptor saturation in humans at a dose of 30 mg. METHODS: This was a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel-group, multicenter trial evaluating the efficacy and safety of SAM-760 30 mg once daily (QD) for 12 weeks in subjects with AD on a stable regimen of donepezil 5 to 10 mg QD. The study included an interim analysis with stopping rules for futility or efficacy after 180 subjects completed the week 12 visit. Up to 342 subjects with AD (Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score 10-24) and neuropsychiatric symptoms (Neuropsychiatric Inventory (NPI) total score ≥ 10) were to be enrolled if the study continued after the interim analysis. After a 4-week, single-blind, placebo run-in period, subjects entered the 12-week double-blind period and were randomized to either SAM-760 or placebo. The primary and key secondary efficacy endpoints were the change from baseline in Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-cognitive subscale (ADAS-cog13) and NPI total scores. Mixed models for repeated measures were used to analyze the data. RESULTS: At the interim analysis, when 186 subjects had been randomized and 163 had completed the week 12 visit, the study met futility criteria and was stopped. The mean week 12 treatment difference was 0.70 points (P = 0.43) for ADAS-cog13 and 2.19 points (P = 0.20) for NPI score, both of which were numerically in favor of placebo. Other secondary endpoints did not demonstrate any significant benefit for SAM-760. In total, 46.2% of SAM-760 subjects reported adverse events (AE) versus 44.7% for placebo, and there were 5 (5.5%) serious AEs in the SAM-760 group versus 3 (3.2%) for placebo. There were two deaths, one prior to randomization and one in the SAM-760 group (due to a traffic accident during washout of active treatment). CONCLUSIONS: SAM-760 was safe and well tolerated, but there was no benefit of SAM-760 on measures of cognition, neuropsychiatric symptoms, or daily function. Differences in trial design, study population, region, or pharmacological profile may explain differences in outcome compared with other 5-HT6 receptor antagonists. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT01712074 . Registered 19 October 2012.

Comparison of methods for measuring soil microbial activity using cotton strips and a respirometer.

In order to develop a method of measuring the level of microbial activity in soil that is suitable for use by farmers, land managers, and other non-scientists, a simple method for determining soil microbial activity was evaluated and compared with two standard techniques. Soils sampled from vegetable farms in south east Queensland were incubated in the laboratory under controlled moisture and temperature conditions. Three methods were used to measure soil microbial activity, a respirometry method and two methods using the cotton strip assay (CSA) technique (image analysis and tensometer). The standard CSA method measured loss of tensile strength over a 35 day incubation period of buried cotton strips using a tensometer. The new CSA technique measured the intensity of staining by microbes using a flatbed scanner to create an image of the cotton strip whose staining percentage was determined using Photoshop software. The respirometry method used the substrate induced respiration rate (SIR) to determine microbial biomass in the soil at day 12 of incubation. The strong correlation between the image analysis method and the tensometer method (r(2)=0.81), a technique used by scientific researchers, suggests that the image analysis method could be used to monitor aspects of soil biological health by general community land-care groups and farmers. The image analysis method uses equipment which is readily available and, while not strongly correlated with more precise measurements of soil biological activity such as microbial biomass (r(2)=0.26), it can detect gross trends in biological health in a soil monitoring program. The CSA method using image analysis was the cheapest technique to measure soil microbial activity. CSA using image analysis can be a valuable tool in conjunction with other simple indicators of soil physical and chemical health such as slaking and pH to monitor soil amelioration or rehabilitation programs.

The Pharmacokinetics of Pregabalin in Breast Milk, Plasma, and Urine of Healthy Postpartum Women.

BACKGROUND: Limited data exist on the presence of pregabalin in human breast milk of nursing mothers. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to determine pregabalin concentrations in breast milk, estimate the infant daily pregabalin dose from nursing mothers, and evaluate pregabalin pharmacokinetic data in lactating women (≥ 12 weeks postpartum). METHODS: In this multiple-dose, open-label, pharmacokinetic study, 4 doses of pregabalin 150 mg were administered orally at 12-hour intervals. Urine, blood, and breast milk samples were collected up to 12, 24, and 48 hours, respectively, following the fourth dose. Pharmacokinetic parameters were estimated using noncompartmental methods. Adverse events were monitored throughout. RESULTS: Ten healthy lactating women (age 24-37 years) received pregabalin. Geometric mean pregabalin Cmaxss and AUCτ values in breast milk were approximately 53% and 76%, respectively, of those for plasma. The mean amount of pregabalin in breast milk recovered in a 24-hour period after the last dose was 574 µg (range, 270-1720 µg), which is approximately 0.2% of the administered daily maternal dose of 300 mg. The estimated average daily infant dose of pregabalin from breast milk was 0.31 mg/kg/day, which would be approximately 7% (23% coefficient of variation) of the body weight normalized maternal dose. Approximately 89% of the dose administered was recovered in urine. Renal clearance averaged 68.2 mL/min. Adverse events were of mild or moderate severity. CONCLUSION: Lactation appears to have had little influence on pregabalin pharmacokinetics. Overall, the estimated dose of pregabalin in breastfed children of women receiving pregabalin is low. Pregabalin was well tolerated in lactating women. DECLARATION OF CONFLICTING INTERESTS: The authors declared the following potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: Peter A. Lockwood, Lynne Pauer, Joseph M. Scavone, Maud Allard, Laure Mendes da Costa, Tanja Alebic-Kolbah, Anna Plotka, Christine W. Alvey, and Marci L. Chew were all full-time employees of Pfizer at the time the study was completed and hold stock and/or stock options in Pfizer. FUNDING: The authors disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: This study was sponsored by Pfizer, which was involved in the study design, the collection, analysis, and interpretation of the data, the writing of the report, and the decision to submit the paper for publication. Medical writing support was provided by Penny Gorringe, MSc, of Engage Scientific Solutions and funded by Pfizer.

The availability and mobility of arsenic and antimony in an acid sulfate soil pasture system.

The Macleay floodplain on the north coast of New South Wales, Australia, has surface soil concentrations of up to 40 mg kg(-1) arsenic (As) and antimony (Sb), due to historical mining practices in the upper catchment. The floodplain also contains areas of active and potential acid sulfate soils (ASS). Some of these areas are purposely re-flooded to halt oxidation processes, but the effect of this management on the metalloid mobility and phytoavailability of the metalloids present is unknown. This study investigated the changes to soil solution As and Sb, associations of metalloids with soil solid phases, and uptake into two common pasture species following 20 weeks of flooding in a controlled environment. The effect of an ASS subsoil was also investigated. The soil solution concentration and availability of the metalloids was in some instances higher in the floodplain soils than would generally be expected in soils with comparable contamination. There appeared to be few changes to soil solution concentrations or phase associations with flooding in this short term study, due to the high acid buffering and poise of the investigated soils. A strong relationship was found between the relative uptake of Sb into pastures and the oxalate extractable Fe in the soil, which was taken as a proxy for non-crystalline iron (Fe) hydroxides. This relationship was dependent on flooding and was absent for As. Further targeted investigations into metalloid speciation kinetics and the stability of soil solid phases with flooding management are recommended.

Effects of nutrient and lime additions in mine site rehabilitation strategies on the accumulation of antimony and arsenic by native Australian plants.

The effects of nutrient and lime additions on antimony (Sb) and arsenic (As) accumulation by native Australian and naturalised plants growing in two contaminated mine site soils (2,735 mg kg(-1) and 4,517 mg kg(-1) Sb; 826 mg kg(-1) and 1606 As mgkg(-1)) was investigated using a glasshouse pot experiment. The results indicated an increase in soil solution concentrations with nutrient addition in both soils and also with nutrient+lime addition for Sb in one soil. Metalloid concentrations in plant roots were significantly greater than concentrations in above ground plant parts. The metalloid transfer to above ground plant parts from the roots and from the soil was, however, low (ratio of leaf concentration/soil concentration≪1) for all species studied. Eucalyptus michaeliana was the most successful at colonisation with lowest metalloid transfer to above ground plant parts. Addition of nutrients and nutrients+lime to soils, in general, increased plant metalloid accumulation. Relative As accumulation was greater than that of Sb. All the plant species studied were suitable for consideration in the mine soil phytostabilisation strategies but lime additions should be limited and longer term trials also recommended.

The chemistry and behaviour of antimony in the soil environment with comparisons to arsenic: a critical review.

This article provides a critical review of the environmental chemistry of inorganic antimony (Sb) in soils, comparing and contrasting findings with those of arsenic (As). Characteristics of the Sb soil system are reviewed, with an emphasis on speciation, sorption and phase associations, identifying differences between Sb and As behaviour. Knowledge gaps in environmentally relevant Sb data for soils are identified and discussed in terms of the limitations this imposes on understanding the fate, behaviour and risks associated with Sb in environmental soil systems, with particular reference to mobility and bioavailability.

Relative uptake of minoxidil into appendages and stratum corneum and permeation through human skin in vitro.

We examined uptake of the model therapeutic agent, minoxidil, into appendages, stratum corneum (SC), and through human skin, under the influence of different vehicles. Quantitative estimation of therapeutic drug deposition into all three areas has not previously been reported. Finite doses of minoxidil (2%, w/v) in formulations containing varying amounts of ethanol, propylene glycol (PG), and water (60:20:20, 80:20:0, and 0:80:20 by volume, respectively) were used. Minoxidil in SC (by tape stripping), appendages (by cyanoacrylate casting), and receptor fluid was determined by liquid scintillation counting. At early times (30 min, 2 h), ethanol-containing formulations (60:20:20 and 80:20:0) caused significantly greater minoxidil retention in SC and appendages, compared to the formulation lacking ethanol (0:80:20). A significant increase in minoxidil receptor penetration occurred with the PG-rich 0:80:20 formulation after 12 h. We showed that deposition of minoxidil into appendages, SC, and skin penetration into receptor fluid were similar in magnitude. Transport by the appendageal route is likely to be a key determinant of hair growth promotion by minoxidil.

Application of clinical trial simulation to compare proof-of-concept study designs for drugs with a slow onset of effect; an example in Alzheimer's disease.

OBJECTIVE: Clinical trial simulation (CTS) was used to select a robust design to test the hypothesis that a new treatment was effective for Alzheimer's disease (AD). Typically, a parallel group, placebo controlled, 12-week trial in 200-400 AD patients would be used to establish drug effect relative to placebo (i.e., Ho: Drug Effect = 0). We evaluated if a crossover design would allow smaller and shorter duration trials. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A family of plausible drug and disease models describing the time course of the AD assessment scale (ADAS-Cog) was developed based on Phase I data and literature reports of other treatments for AD. The models included pharmacokinetic, pharmacodynamic, disease progression, and placebo components. Eight alternative trial designs were explored via simulation. One hundred replicates of each combination of drug and disease model and trial design were simulated. A 'positive trial' reflecting drug activity was declared considering both a dose trend test (p < 0.05) and pair-wise comparisons to placebo (p < 0.025). RESULTS: A 4 x 4 Latin Square design was predicted to have at least 80% power to detect activity across a range of drug and disease models. The trial design was subsequently implemented and the trial was completed. Based on the results of the actual trial, a conclusive decision about further development was taken. The crossover design provided enhanced power over a parallel group design due to the lower residual variability. CONCLUSION: CTS aided the decision to use a more efficient proof of concept trial design, leading to savings of up to US 4 M dollars in direct costs and a firm decision 8-12 months earlier than a 12-week parallel group trial.

Adsorption of antimony(V) by floodplain soils, amorphous iron(III) hydroxide and humic acid.

Antimony (Sb) emissions to the environment are increasing, and there is a dearth of knowledge regarding Sb fate and behaviour in natural systems. In particular, there is a lack of understanding of sorption of the oxidised Sb(V) species onto soils and soil phases. In this study sorption of Sb(V) by two organic rich soils with high levels of oxalate extractable Fe was examined over the pH range of 2.5-7. Furthermore, the sorption behaviour of Sb(V) was examined in two phases mimicking those dominant in the experimental soils, namely a solid humic acid and an amorphous Fe(OH)3, across the same pH range. Sorption of Sb by the soils and the humic acid fitted a Freundlich type isotherm, with the equation parameters reflecting changes in bonding affinity corresponding to pH changes. The soils sorbed >75% of the added Sb in all trials, and 80-100% at pH values less than approximately 6.5. The Fe(OH)3 retained >95% of the added Sb in all experiments. The humic acid sorbed up to 60% of the added Sb at acidic pH values, but sorption decreased to zero at higher pH values. Further adsorption studies are recommended, such as examining the effects of ion competition and changes in ionic strength.

How modeling and simulation have enhanced decision making in new drug development.

The idea of model-based drug development championed by Lewis Sheiner, in which pharmacostatistical models of drug efficacy and safety are developed from preclinical and available clinical data, offers a quantitative approach to improving drug development and development decision-making. Examples are presented that support this paradigm. The first example describes a preclinical model of behavioral activity to predict potency and time-course of response in humans and assess the potential for differentiation between compounds. This example illustrates how modeling procedures expounded by Lewis Sheiner provided the means to differentiate potency and the lag time between drug exposure and response and allow for rapid decision making and dose selection. The second example involves planning a Phase 2a dose-ranging and proof of concept trial in Alzheimer's disease (AD). The issue was how to proceed with the study and what criteria to use for a go/no go decision. The combined knowledge of AD disease progression, and preclinical and clinical information about the drug were used to simulate various clinical trial scenarios to identify an efficient and effective Phase 2 study. A design was selected and carried out resulting in a number of important learning experiences as well as extensive financial savings. The motivation for this case in point was the "Learn-Confirm" paradigm described by Lewis Sheiner. The final example describes the use of Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) modeling and simulation to confirm efficacy across doses. In the New Drug Application for gabapentin, data from two adequate and well-controlled clinical trials was submitted to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in support of the approval of the indication for the treatment of post-herpetic neuralgia. The clinical trial data was not replicated for each of the sought dose levels in the drug application presenting a regulatory dilemma. Exposure response analysis submitted in the New Drug Application was applied to confirm the evidence of efficacy across these dose levels. Modeling and simulation analyses showed that the two studies corroborate each other with respect to the pain relief profiles. The use of PK/PD information confirmed evidence of efficacy across the three studied doses, eliminating the need for additional clinical trials and thus supporting the approval of the product. It can be speculated that the work by Lewis Sheiner reflected in the FDA document titled "Innovation or Stagnation: Challenge and Opportunity on the Critical Path to New Medical Products" made this scientific approach to the drug approval process possible.

The use of clinical trial simulation to support dose selection: application to development of a new treatment for chronic neuropathic pain.

PURPOSE: Pregabalin is being evaluated for the treatment of neuropathic pain. Two phase 2 studies were simulated to determine how precisely the dose that caused a one-point reduction in the pain score could be estimated. The likelihood of demonstrating at least a one-point change for each available dose strength was also calculated. METHODS: A pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) model relating pain relief to gabapentin plasma concentrations was derived from a phase 3 study. The PK component of the model was modified to reflect pregabalin PK. The PD component was modified by scaling the gabapentin concentration-effect relationship to reflect pregabalin potency, which was based on preclincal data. Uncertainty about the potency difference and the steepness of the concentration-response slope necessitated simulating a distribution of outcomes for a series of PK/PD models. RESULTS: Analysis of the simulated data suggested that after accounting for the uncertainty, there was an 80% chance that the dose defining the clinical feature was within 45% of the true value. The likelihood of estimating a dose that was within an acceptable predefined precision range relative to a known value approximated 60%. The minimum dose that should be studied to have a reasonable chance of estimating the dose that caused a one-point change was 300 mg. CONCLUSIONS: Doses that identify predefined response may be imprecisely estimated, suggesting that replication of a similar outcome may be elusive in a confirmatory study. Quantification of this precision provides a rationale for phase 2 trial design and dose selection for confirmatory studies.