Artificial neural network-based models used for predicting 28- and 90-day mortality of patients with hepatitis B-associated acute-on-chronic liver failure.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to develop prognostic models for predicting 28- and 90-day mortality rates of hepatitis B virus (HBV)-associated acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) through artificial neural network (ANN) systems. METHODS: Six hundred and eight-four cases of consecutive HBV-ACLF patients were retrospectively reviewed. Four hundred and twenty-three cases were used for training and constructing ANN models, and the remaining 261 cases were for validating the established models. Predictors associated with mortality were determined by univariate analysis and were then included in ANN models for predicting prognosis of mortality. The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to evaluate the predictive performance of the ANN models in comparison with various current prognostic models. RESULTS: Variables with statistically significant difference or important clinical characteristics were input in the ANN training process, and eight independent risk factors, including age, hepatic encephalopathy, serum sodium, prothrombin activity, γ-glutamyltransferase, hepatitis B e antigen, alkaline phosphatase and total bilirubin, were eventually used to establish ANN models. For 28-day mortality in the training cohort, the model's predictive accuracy (AUR 0.948, 95% CI 0.925-0.970) was significantly higher than that of the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD-sodium (MELD-Na), Chronic Liver Failure-ACLF (CLIF-ACLF), and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) (all p < 0.001). In the validation cohorts the predictive accuracy of ANN model (AUR 0.748, 95% CI: 0.673-0.822) was significantly higher than that of MELD (p = 0.0099) and insignificantly higher than that of MELD-Na, CTP and CLIF-ACLF (p > 0.05). For 90-day mortality in the training cohort, the model's predictive accuracy (AUR 0.913, 95% CI 0.887-0.938) was significantly higher than that of MELD, MELD-Na, CTP and CLIF-ACLF (all p < 0.001). In the validation cohorts, the prediction accuracy of the ANN model (AUR 0.754, 95% CI: 0.697-0.812 was significantly higher than that of MELD (p = 0.019) and insignificantly higher than MELD-Na, CTP and CLIF-ACLF (p > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The established ANN models can more accurately predict short-term mortality risk in patients with HBV- ACLF. The main content has been postered as an abstract at the AASLD Hepatology Conference (https://doi.org/10.1002/hep.30257).

Nomogram prediction of individual prognosis of patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure.

BACKGROUND: The current definitions and etiologies of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) are clearly very different between East and West. AIMS: This study aimed to develop an effective prognostic nomogram for acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF) as defined by the Asia Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL). METHODS: The nomogram was based on a retrospective study of 573 patients with ACHBLF, defined according to the APASL, at the Beijing Ditan Hospital. The results were validated using a bootstrapped approach to correct for bias in two external cohorts, including an APASL ACHBLF cohort (10 hospitals, N = 329) and an EASL-CLIF ACHBLF cohort (Renji Hospital, N = 300). RESULTS: Multivariate analysis of the derivation cohort for survival analysis helped identify the independent factors as age, total bilirubin, albumin, international normalized ratio, and hepatic encephalopathy, which were included in the nomogram. The predictive value of nomogram was the strongest compared with CLIF-C ACLF, MELD and MELD-Na and similar to COSSH-ACLF in both the derivation and prospective validation cohorts with APASL ACHBLF, but the CLIF-C ACLF was better in the EASL-CLIF ACHBLF cohort. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed nomogram could accurately estimate individualized risk for the short-term mortality of patients with ACHBLF as defined by APASL.

Clinical trial with traditional Chinese medicine intervention ''tonifying the kidney to promote liver regeneration and repair by affecting stem cells and their microenvironment'' for chronic hepatitis B-associated liver failure.

AIM: To study the clinical efficacy of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) intervention "tonifying the kidney to promote liver regeneration and repair by affecting stem cells and their microenvironment" ("TTK") for treating liver failure due to chronic hepatitis B. METHODS: We designed the study as a randomized controlled clinical trial. Registration number of Chinese Clinical Trial Registry is ChiCTR-TRC-12002961. A total of 144 patients with liver failure due to infection with chronic hepatitis B virus were enrolled in this randomized controlled clinical study. Participants were randomly assigned to the following three groups: (1) a modern medicine control group (MMC group, 36 patients); (2) a "tonifying qi and detoxification" ("TQD") group (72 patients); and (3) a "tonifying the kidney to promote liver regeneration and repair by affecting stem cells and their microenvironment" ("TTK") group (36 patients). Patients in the MMC group received general internal medicine treatment; patients in the "TQD" group were given a TCM formula "tonifying qi and detoxification" and general internal medicine treatment; patients in the "TTK" group were given a TCM formula of "TTK" and general internal medicine treatment. All participants were treated for 8 wk and then followed at 48 wk following their final treatment. The primary efficacy end point was the patient fatality rate in each group. Measurements of various virological and biochemical indicators served as secondary endpoints. The one-way analysis of variance and the t-test were used to compare patient outcomes in the different treatment groups. RESULTS: At the 48-wk post-treatment time point, the patient fatality rates in the MMC, "TQD", and "TTK" groups were 51.61%, 35.38%, and 16.67%, respectively, and the differences between groups were statistically significant (P < 0.05). However, there were no significant differences in the levels of hepatitis B virus DNA or prothrombin activity among the three groups (P > 0.05). Patients in the "TTK" group had significantly higher levels of serum total bilirubin compared to MMC subjects (339.40 µmol/L ± 270.09 µmol/L vs 176.13 µmol/L ± 185.70 µmol/L, P = 0.014). Serum albumin levels were significantly increased in both the "TQD" group and "TTK" group as compared with the MMC group (31.30 g/L ± 4.77 g/L, 30.72 g/L ± 2.89 g/L vs 28.57 g/L ± 4.56 g/L, P < 0.05). There were no significant differences in levels of alanine transaminase among the three groups (P > 0.05). Safety data showed that there was one case of stomachache in the "TQD" group and one case of gastrointestinal side effect in the "TTK" group. CONCLUSION: Treatment with "TTK" improved the survival rates of patients with liver failure due to chronic hepatitis B. Additionally, liver tissue was regenerated and liver function was restored.