Evaluating the effectiveness of incentives to improve HIV prevention outcomes for young females in Eswatini: Sitakhela Likusasa impact evaluation protocol and baseline results.

BACKGROUND: Eswatini continues to have the highest prevalence of HIV in the world, and one of the highest HIV incidences among adult populations (aged 15-49). This analysis reports on both key elements of study design/protocol and baseline results from an impact evaluation of an intervention incentivizing (i) initiation, enrolment, attendance or completion of some form of education, and (ii) lower risk sexual behaviour. METHODS: The impact evaluation employs a two by two factorial design in which participants are enrolled in either the incentive for education arm ('education treatment arm' providing a conditional cash incentive) or the control arm ('education control arm'). In each of these arms, 50% of participants were randomized to also be eligible for selection - three times a year - to participate in a conditional raffle conditional on testing negative for curable STIs (syphilis and Trichomonas vaginalis). RESULTS: Baseline recruitment and screening occurred in 2016 when a total of 6055 individuals were screened of which 4863 participated in the baseline survey, and 4819 individuals were randomized into one of the study arms. The baseline prevalence of HIV, Trichomonas vaginalis, and syphilis among adolescent girls and young women 8.20% (397/4840), 3.31% (150/4533) and 0.17% (8/4830) respectively. CONCLUSIONS: An educational cash incentive and raffle incentive impact evaluation that addresses adolescent girls and young women who are in-education and out-of-education has the potential to reduce HIV risk in adolescent girls and young women in Eswatini. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Name of the registry: Pan African Clinical Trials Registry. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: PACTR201811609257043 . Date of registration: May 11, 2018 'Retrospectively registered'. URL of trial registry record: https://pactr.samrc.ac.za/TrialDisplay.aspx?TrialID=4685.

Mixed results: the protective role of schooling in the HIV epidemic in Swaziland.

Swaziland has the highest HIV prevalence in the world. It is recognised that young women, especially adolescents, are particularly vulnerable to HIV infection and bear a disproportionate burden of HIV incidence. The HIV data from Swaziland show the location of the epidemic, which is particularly high among adolescent girls and young women. This paper is based on research in Swaziland, commissioned because of the perception that large numbers of children were dropping out of the school. It was assumed that these "dropouts" had increased risk of HIV exposure. This study carried out a detailed analysis using the Annual Education Census Reports from 2012 to 2014 produced by the Ministry of Education. In addition, this topic was explored, during fieldwork with key informants in the country. While HIV prevalence rises rapidly among young women in Swaziland, as is the case across most of Southern Africa, the data showed there were few dropouts. This was the case at all levels of education - primary, junior secondary and senior secondary. The major reason for dropping out of primary school was family reasons; and in junior and senior secondary, pregnancy was the leading cause. Swaziland is doing well in terms of getting its children into school, and, for the most part, keeping them there. This paper identifies the students who face increased vulnerability: the limited number of dropouts; repeaters who consequently were "out-of-age for grade"; and orphans and vulnerable children (OVC). The learners who were classified as repeaters and OVC greatly outnumbered the dropouts. We argue, on the basis of these data, for re-focussed attention and the need to develop a method for tracking children as they move across the vulnerable groups. We acknowledge schooling is protective in reducing children's vulnerability to HIV, and Swaziland is on the right track in education, although there are challenges.

The impact of financial incentives on HIV incidence among adolescent girls and young women in Eswatini: Sitakhela Likusasa, a cluster randomised trial.

INTRODUCTION: Incentives conditional on school attendance or on remaining free of sexually transmitted infections have produced mixed results in reducing HIV incidence. METHODS: HIV-negative adolescent girls and young women aged 15-22%-50% of whom were out of school-were recruited from 293 clusters in Eswatini from urban (30%) and rural areas (70%).Financial incentives conditional on education attendance were randomly allocated at the cluster level. All participants were further individually randomised into eligibility for a raffle incentive conditional on random selection into the raffle, on negative tests for syphilis and Trichomonas vaginalis and on being a raffle winner, creating four subarms in a 2×2 factorial design: no-intervention, raffle incentive, education incentive and raffle & education incentive. Randomisation was unblinded to participants.Logistic regressions were used in intention-to-treat analysis of HIV incidence over 3 years to estimate the impact of incentives conditional on school attendance and raffle incentives conditional on remaining sexually transmitted infection free. RESULTS: The study recruited 4389 HIV-negative participants, who were distributed into four subarms: no intervention (n=1068), raffle incentive (n=1162), education incentive (n=1088) and raffle and education incentive (n=1071).At endline, 272 participants from 3772 for whom endline data were collected, tested positive for HIV. HIV incidence among participants in education treatment arm was significantly lower than in the education control arm, 6.34% (119/1878) versus 8.08% (153/1894) (p=0.041); OR: 0.766 (0.598 to 0.981); adjusted OR (aOR): 0.754 (0.585 to 0.972). Compared with the no intervention subarm, HIV incidence in the raffle and education incentive subarm was significantly lower, 5.79% (54/878) versus 8.84% (80/905); OR: 0.634 (0.443 to 0.907); aOR: 0.622 (0.433 to 0.893), while it was not significantly lower in the raffle incentive subarm. CONCLUSION: Financial incentives conditional on education participation significantly reduced HIV infection among adolescent girls and young women in Eswatini and appear to be a promising tool for prevention in high HIV prevalence settings. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Western Institutional Review Board-protocol number 20 141 630.Eswatini National Health Research Review Board-FWA00026661.Pan African Clinical Trials Registry-PACTR201811609257043.

HIV incidence, viremia, and the national response in Eswatini: Two sequential population-based surveys.

With the highest HIV incidence and prevalence globally, the government of Eswatini started a substantial scale-up of HIV treatment and prevention services in 2011. Two sequential large population-based surveys were conducted before and after service expansion to assess the impact of the national response. Cross-sectional, household-based, nationally representative samples of adults, ages 18 to 49 years, were sampled in 2011 and 2016. We measured HIV prevalence, incidence (recent infection based on limiting antigen ≤1.5 optical density units and HIV RNA ≥1000 copies/mL), viral load suppression (HIV RNA <1000 copies/mL among all seropositive adults) and unsuppressed viremia (HIV RNA ≥1000 copies/mL among all, regardless of HIV status) and assessed for temporal changes by conducting a trend analysis of the log ratio of proportions, using a Z statistic distribution. HIV prevalence remained stable from 2011 to 2016 [32% versus 30%, p = 0.10]. HIV incidence significantly declined 48% [2.48% versus 1.30%, p = 0.01]. Incidence remained higher among women than men [2011: 3.16% versus 1.83%; 2016: 1.76% versus 0.86%], with a smaller but significant relative reduction among women [44%; p = 0.04] than men [53%; p = 0.09]. The proportion of seropositive adults with viral load suppression significantly increased from 35% to 71% [p < .001]. The proportion of the total adult population with unsuppressed viremia decreased from 21% to 9% [p < .001]. National HIV incidence in Eswatini decreased by nearly half and viral load suppression doubled over a five-year period. Unsuppressed viremia in the total population decreased 58%. These population-based findings demonstrate the national impact of expanded HIV services in a hyperendemic country.

Opportunities for improved HIV prevention and treatment through budget optimization in Eswatini.

INTRODUCTION: Eswatini achieved a 44% decrease in new HIV infections from 2014 to 2019 through substantial scale-up of testing and treatment. However, it still has one of the highest rates of HIV incidence in the world, with 14 infections per 1,000 adults 15-49 years estimated for 2017. The Government of Eswatini has called for an 85% reduction in new infections by 2023 over 2017 levels. To make further progress towards this target and to achieve maximum health gains, this study aims to model optimized investments of available HIV resources. METHODS: The Optima HIV model was applied to estimate the impact of efficiency strategies to accelerate prevention of HIV infections and HIV-related deaths. We estimated the number of infections and deaths that could be prevented by optimizing HIV investments. We optimize across HIV programs, then across service delivery modalities for voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC), HIV testing, and antiretroviral refill, as well as switching to a lower cost antiretroviral regimen. FINDINGS: Under an optimized budget, prioritising HIV testing for the general population followed by key preventative interventions may result in approximately 1,000 more new infections (2% more) being averted by 2023. More infections could be averted with further optimization between service delivery modalities across the HIV cascade. Scaling-up index and self-testing could lead to 100,000 more people getting tested for HIV (25% more tests) with the same budget. By prioritizing Fast-Track, community-based, and facility-based antiretroviral refill options, an estimated 30,000 more people could receive treatment, 17% more than baseline or US$5.5 million could be saved, 4% of the total budget. Finally, switching non-pregnant HIV-positive adults to a Dolutegravir-based antiretroviral therapy regimen and concentrating delivery of VMMC to existing fixed facilities over mobile clinics, US$4.5 million (7% of total budget) and US$6.6 million (10% of total budget) could be saved, respectively. SIGNIFICANCE: With a relatively short five-year timeframe, even under a substantially increased and optimized budget, Eswatini is unlikely to reach their ambitious national prevention target by 2023. However, by optimizing investment of the same budget towards highly cost-effective VMMC, testing, and treatment modalities, further reductions in HIV incidence and cost savings could be realized.