Clinical and biomechanical factors associated with falls and rheumatoid arthritis: baseline cohort with longitudinal nested case-control study.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the clinical and biomechanical characteristics associated with falls in people with RA. METHODS: A total of 436 people ≥60 years of age with RA completed a 1 year prospective survey of falls in the UK. At baseline, questionnaires recorded data including personal and medical history, pain and fatigue scores, health-related quality of life (HRQoL), physical activity and medication history. The occurrence of falls wasmonitored prospectively over 12 months by monthly self-reporting. A nested sample of 30 fallers (defined as the report of one or more falls in 12 months) and 30 non-fallers was evaluated to assess joint range of motion (ROM), muscle strength and gait parameters. Multivariate regression analyses were undertaken to determine variables associated with falling. RESULTS: Compared with non-fallers (n = 236), fallers (n = 200) were older (P = 0.05), less likely to be married (P = 0.03), had higher pain scores (P < 0.01), experienced more frequent dizziness (P < 0.01), were frequently taking psychotropic medications (P = 0.02) and reported lower HRQoL (P = 0.02). Among those who underwent gait laboratory assessments, compared with non-fallers, fallers showed a greater anteroposterior (AP; P = 0.03) and medial-lateral (ML) sway range (P = 0.02) and reduced isokinetic peak torque and isometric strength at 60° knee flexion (P = 0.03). Fallers also showed shorter stride length (P = 0.04), shorter double support time (P = 0.04) and reduced percentage time in swing phase (P = 0.02) and in knee range of motion through the gait cycle (P < 0.01). CONCLUSION: People with RA have distinct clinical and biomechanical characteristics that place them at increased risk of falling. Assessment for these factors may be important to offer more targeted rehabilitation interventions.

Variation and implications of treatment decisions in early rheumatoid arthritis: results from a nationwide cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Trial data have provided an evidence base to guide early treatment in RA. Few studies have investigated rheumatologists' adherence to guidelines, and subsequent impact on outcomes. The objectives of this study are to characterize baseline prescribing for patients with RA across the National Health Service, identifying treatment decisions that associate with patient outcomes. METHODS: A nationwide audit of RA collected information on treatment choices, DAS and sociodemographic factors at baseline. Treatment response was assessed at 3 months. Multilevel regression models were used to characterize departmental variations in prescribing. Heat maps were used to visualize geographical variation. Mixed effects regression models were constructed to assess the relationship between treatment decisions and disease outcomes, adjusting for patient and department level covariates. RESULTS: A total of 7154 patients with a diagnosis of RA were recruited from 136 departments. There was broad variation in prescribing choices, even between departments close to one another, with evidence of substantial deviation from guidelines. Over 75% of patients received glucocorticoids, fewer than half received combination conventional DMARDs. Early glucocorticoid therapy associated with achieving a good treatment response [odds ratio 1.93 (95% CI 1.31, 2.84), P-value = 0.001]. The association was maintained following propensity modelling and imputation. CONCLUSION: Guideline adherence varies between departments and cannot be explained by case-mix alone. Departments that prescribe early adjunctive steroid achieve better short-term outcomes. Further research should work to ensure that the early arthritis evidence base translates into better outcomes for patients.

Validity of a two-component imaging-derived disease activity score for improved assessment of synovitis in early rheumatoid arthritis.

OBJECTIVES: Imaging of joint inflammation provides a standard against which to derive an updated DAS for RA. Our objectives were to develop and validate a DAS based on reweighting the DAS28 components to maximize association with US-assessed synovitis. METHODS: Early RA patients from two observational cohorts (n = 434 and n = 117) and a clinical trial (n = 59) were assessed at intervals up to 104 weeks from baseline; all US scans were within 1 week of clinical exam. There were 899, 163 and 183 visits in each cohort. Associations of combined US grey scale and power Doppler scores (GSPD) with 28 tender joint count and 28 swollen joint count (SJC28), CRP, ESR and general health visual analogue scale were examined in linear mixed model regressions. Cross-validation evaluated model predictive ability. Coefficients learned from training data defined a re-weighted DAS28 that was validated against radiographic progression in independent data (3037 observations; 717 patients). RESULTS: Of the conventional DAS28 components only SJC28 and CRP were associated with GSPD in all three development cohorts. A two-component model including SJC28 and CRP outperformed a four-component model (R2 = 0.235, 0.392, 0.380 vs 0.232, 0.380, 0.375, respectively). The re-weighted two-component DAS28CRP outperformed conventional DAS28 definitions in predicting GSPD (Δtest log-likelihood <-2.6, P < 0.01), Larsen score and presence of erosions. CONCLUSION: A score based on SJC28 and CRP alone demonstrated stronger associations with synovitis and radiographic progression than the original DAS28 and should be considered in research on pathophysiological manifestations of early RA. Implications for clinical management of RA remain to be established.

Risk-adjusted cUSUM control charts for shared frailty survival models with application to hip replacement outcomes: a study using the NJR dataset.

BACKGROUND: Continuous monitoring of surgical outcomes after joint replacement is needed to detect which brands' components have a higher than expected failure rate and are therefore no longer recommended to be used in surgical practice. We developed a monitoring method based on cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart specifically for this application. METHODS: Our method entails the use of the competing risks model with the Weibull and the Gompertz hazard functions adjusted for observed covariates to approximate the baseline time-to-revision and time-to-death distributions, respectively. The correlated shared frailty terms for competing risks, corresponding to the operating unit, are also included in the model. A bootstrap-based boundary adjustment is then required for risk-adjusted CUSUM charts to guarantee a given probability of the false alarm rates. We propose a method to evaluate the CUSUM scores and the adjusted boundary for a survival model with the shared frailty terms. We also introduce a unit performance quality score based on the posterior frailty distribution. This method is illustrated using the 2003-2012 hip replacement data from the UK National Joint Registry (NJR). RESULTS: We found that the best model included the shared frailty for revision but not for death. This means that the competing risks of revision and death are independent in NJR data. Our method was superior to the standard NJR methodology. For one of the two monitored components, it produced alarms four years before the increased failure rate came to the attention of the UK regulatory authorities. The hazard ratios of revision across the units varied from 0.38 to 2.28. CONCLUSIONS: An earlier detection of failure signal by our method in comparison to the standard method used by the NJR may be explained by proper risk-adjustment and the ability to accommodate time-dependent hazards. The continuous monitoring of hip replacement outcomes should include risk adjustment at both the individual and unit level.

Have the 10-year outcomes of patients with early inflammatory arthritis improved in the new millennium compared with the decade before? Results from the Norfolk Arthritis Register.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the 10-year outcome (disease activity, disability, mortality) of two cohorts of patients with inflammatory polyarthritis (IP) recruited 10 years apart. METHODS: Patients with IP were recruited to the Norfolk Arthritis Register from 1990 to 1994 (cohort 1 (C1)) and from 2000 to 2004 (cohort 2 (C2)). Demographic and clinical data were collected at baseline and at years 1, 2, 3, 5, 7 and 10. Longitudinal disease activity (swollen/tender 51 joint counts (SJC51/TJC51)) and disability (Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ)) were compared between the cohorts using population-average negative binomial regression and generalised estimating equation analysis, respectively. Risk of 10-year mortality was compared between cohorts using Cox models. Risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality was compared between cohorts using competing risks analysis. Mortality rate ratios (MRR), adjusted for changes in mortality risk of the general population, were calculated using Poisson regression. RESULTS: In total 1653 patients were recruited (C1=1022, C2=631). Patients in C2 had 17% lower SJC51 than C1 over 10 years (95% CI -23% to -10%), whereas TJC51 and HAQ were comparable. C2 patients had reduced risk of all-cause and CVD mortality compared with C1 (all-cause: HR 0.72, 95% CI 0.56 to 0.95; CVD: subhazard ratio 0.58, 95% CI 0.37 to 0.93). After accounting for changes in mortality risk in the general population, the difference in mortality was non-significant (all-cause: MRR 0.78, 95% CI 0.56 to 1.10; CVD: MRR 0.77, 95% CI 0.48 to 1.24). CONCLUSION: Disease activity significantly improved in the new millennium, whereas disability and mortality were unchanged.

Patterns and predictors of skin score change in early diffuse systemic sclerosis from the European Scleroderma Observational Study.

OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to use the opportunity provided by the European Scleroderma Observational Study to (1) identify and describe those patients with early diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (dcSSc) with progressive skin thickness, and (2) derive prediction models for progression over 12 months, to inform future randomised controlled trials (RCTs). METHODS: The modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS) was recorded every 3 months in 326 patients. 'Progressors' were defined as those experiencing a 5-unit and 25% increase in mRSS score over 12 months (±3 months). Logistic models were fitted to predict progression and, using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, were compared on the basis of the area under curve (AUC), accuracy and positive predictive value (PPV). RESULTS: 66 patients (22.5%) progressed, 227 (77.5%) did not (33 could not have their status assessed due to insufficient data). Progressors had shorter disease duration (median 8.1 vs 12.6 months, P=0.001) and lower mRSS (median 19 vs 21 units, P=0.030) than non-progressors. Skin score was highest, and peaked earliest, in the anti-RNA polymerase III (Pol3+) subgroup (n=50). A first predictive model (including mRSS, duration of skin thickening and their interaction) had an accuracy of 60.9%, AUC of 0.666 and PPV of 33.8%. By adding a variable for Pol3 positivity, the model reached an accuracy of 71%, AUC of 0.711 and PPV of 41%. CONCLUSIONS: Two prediction models for progressive skin thickening were derived, for use both in clinical practice and for cohort enrichment in RCTs. These models will inform recruitment into the many clinical trials of dcSSc projected for the coming years. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT02339441.

Disability, fatigue, pain and their associates in early diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis: the European Scleroderma Observational Study.

Objectives: Our aim was to describe the burden of early dcSSc in terms of disability, fatigue and pain in the European Scleroderma Observational Study cohort, and to explore associated clinical features. Methods: Patients completed questionnaires at study entry, 12 and 24 months, including the HAQ disability index (HAQ-DI), the Cochin Hand Function Scale (CHFS), the Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy-fatigue and the Short Form 36 (SF36). Associates examined included the modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS), current digital ulcers and internal organ involvement. Correlations between 12-month changes were also examined. Results: The 326 patients recruited (median disease duration 11.9 months) displayed high levels of disability [mean (s.d.) HAQ-DI 1.1 (0.83)], with 'grip' and 'activity' being most affected. Of the 18 activities assessed in the CHFS, those involving fine finger movements were most affected. High HAQ-DI and CHFS scores were both associated with high mRSS (ρ = 0.34, P < 0.0001 and ρ = 0.35, P < 0.0001, respectively). HAQ-DI was higher in patients with digital ulcers (P = 0.004), pulmonary fibrosis (P = 0.005), cardiac (P = 0.005) and muscle involvement (P = 0.002). As anticipated, HAQ-DI, CHFS, the Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy and SF36 scores were all highly correlated, in particular the HAQ-DI with the CHFS (ρ = 0.84, P < 0.0001). Worsening HAQ-DI over 12 months was strongly associated with increasing mRSS (ρ = 0.40, P < 0.0001), decreasing hand function (ρ = 0.57, P < 0.0001) and increasing fatigue (ρ = -0.53, P < 0.0001). Conclusion: The European Scleroderma Observational Study highlights the burden of disability in early dcSSc, with high levels of disability and fatigue, associating with the degree of skin thickening (mRSS). Impaired hand function is a major contributor to overall disability.

Treatment outcome in early diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis: the European Scleroderma Observational Study (ESOS).

OBJECTIVES: The rarity of early diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (dcSSc) makes randomised controlled trials very difficult. We aimed to use an observational approach to compare effectiveness of currently used treatment approaches. METHODS: This was a prospective, observational cohort study of early dcSSc (within three years of onset of skin thickening). Clinicians selected one of four protocols for each patient: methotrexate, mycophenolate mofetil (MMF), cyclophosphamide or 'no immunosuppressant'. Patients were assessed three-monthly for up to 24 months. The primary outcome was the change in modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS). Confounding by indication at baseline was accounted for using inverse probability of treatment (IPT) weights. As a secondary outcome, an IPT-weighted Cox model was used to test for differences in survival. RESULTS: Of 326 patients recruited from 50 centres, 65 were prescribed methotrexate, 118 MMF, 87 cyclophosphamide and 56 no immunosuppressant. 276 (84.7%) patients completed 12 and 234 (71.7%) 24 months follow-up (or reached last visit date). There were statistically significant reductions in mRSS at 12 months in all groups: -4.0 (-5.2 to -2.7) units for methotrexate, -4.1 (-5.3 to -2.9) for MMF, -3.3 (-4.9 to -1.7) for cyclophosphamide and -2.2 (-4.0 to -0.3) for no immunosuppressant (p value for between-group differences=0.346). There were no statistically significant differences in survival between protocols before (p=0.389) or after weighting (p=0.440), but survival was poorest in the no immunosuppressant group (84.0%) at 24 months. CONCLUSIONS: These findings may support using immunosuppressants for early dcSSc but suggest that overall benefit is modest over 12 months and that better treatments are needed. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT02339441.

Predictors of and outcomes following orthopaedic joint surgery in patients with early rheumatoid arthritis followed for 20 years.

Objectives: To analyse predictors and outcomes of major orthopaedic surgery in a cohort of RA patients followed for 20 years. Methods: Patients were recruited to the Norfolk Arthritis Register from 1990 to 1994. Demographic and clinical variables (including the HAQ and swollen and tender joint counts) were assessed at baseline; the 2010 ACR/EULAR RA classification criteria were applied. Patients reported incident comorbidities and major orthopaedic joint surgery (replacement, synovectomy, fusion, excision) when reassessed at years 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 10, 15 and 20. Baseline and time-varying predictors of orthopaedic surgery were assessed using a conditional risk set model, a type of multiple-failure survival analysis. Change in disability after surgery was assessed using weighted mixed-effects linear regression. Results: Of 589 RA patients [median age 56 years (IQR 45-68); 66.7% women] recruited to the Norfolk Arthritis Register with at least one follow-up, 102 reported a total of 180 major surgeries, with hip replacement being the most common (n = 68/180). Patients reporting major surgery had worse functional disability at all time points, but similar swollen/tender joint counts to those without major surgery. Each unit increase in HAQ score was associated with a doubling of the patient's risk of having surgery by the next assessment [hazard ratio 2.11 per unit increase in HAQ (95% CI 1.64, 2.71)]. Patients had worse HAQ scores after surgery than patients not undergoing surgery [ß = 0.17 (95% CI 0.03, 0.32)]. Conclusion: HAQ was the strongest predictor of future major surgery. This supports the argument that HAQ should be included in routine clinical assessment.

Anticarbamylated protein antibodies are associated with long-term disability and increased disease activity in patients with early inflammatory arthritis: results from the Norfolk Arthritis Register.

OBJECTIVES: Anticarbamylated protein (anti-CarP) antibodies are a novel family of autoantibodies recently identified in patients with inflammatory arthritis. The aim of this study was to investigate their association with long-term outcomes of disability and disease activity over 20 years' follow-up in a cohort of patients with inflammatory polyarthritis (IP). METHODS: Norfolk Arthritis Register recruited adults with recent-onset swelling of ≥2 joints for ≥4 weeks from 1990 to 2009. At baseline, Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) and 28 joint disease activity scores (DAS28) were obtained, and C reactive protein, rheumatoid factor (RF), anticitrullinated protein antibodies (ACPA) and anti-CarP antibodies were measured. Further HAQ scores and DAS28 were obtained at regular intervals over 20 years. Generalised estimating equations were used to test the association between anti-CarP antibody status and longitudinal HAQ and DAS28 scores; adjusting for age, gender, smoking status, year of inclusion and ACPA status. Analyses were repeated in subgroups stratified by ACPA status. The relative association of RF, ACPA and anti-CarP antibodies with HAQ and DAS28 scores was investigated using a random effects model. RESULTS: 1995 patients were included; 1310 (66%) were female. Anti-CarP antibodies were significantly associated with more disability and higher disease activity, HAQ multivariate ß-coefficient (95% CI) 0.12 (0.02 to 0.21), and these associations remained significant in the ACPA-negative subgroups. The associations of RF, ACPA and anti-CarP antibodies were found to be additive in the random effects model. CONCLUSIONS: Anti-CarP antibodies are associated with increased disability and higher disease activity in patients with IP. Our results suggest that measurement of anti-CarP antibodies may be useful in identifying ACPA-negative patients with worse long-term outcomes. Further, anti-CarP antibody status provided additional information about RF and ACPA.

Outcomes in Ankle Replacement Study (OARS).

Aims: The aim of this study was to capture 12-month outcomes from a representative multicentre cohort of patients undergoing total ankle arthroplasty (TAA), describe the pattern of patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) at 12 months, and identify predictors of these outcome measures. Methods: Patients listed for a primary TAA at 19 NHS hospitals between February 2016 and October 2017 were eligible. PROMs data were collected preoperatively and at six and 12 months including: Manchester-Oxford Foot and Ankle Questionnaire (MOXFQ (foot and ankle)) and the EuroQol five-dimension five-level questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L). Radiological pre- and postoperative data included Kellgren-Lawrence score and implant position measurement. This was supplemented by data from the National Joint Registry through record linkage to determine: American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade at index procedure; indication for surgery, index ankle previous fracture; tibial hind foot alignment; additional surgery at the time of TAA; and implant type. Multivariate regression models assessed outcomes, and the relationship between MOXFQ and EQ-5D-5L outcomes, with patient characteristics. Results: Data from 238 patients were analyzed. There were significant improvements in MOXFQ and EQ-5D-5L among people who underwent TAA at six- and 12-month assessments compared with preoperative scores (p < 0.001). Most improvement occurred between preoperative and six months, with little further improvement at 12 months. A greater improvement in MOXFQ outcome postoperatively was associated with older age and more advanced radiological signs of ankle osteoarthritis at baseline. Conclusion: TAA significantly benefits patients with end-stage ankle disease. The lack of substantial further overall change between six and 12 months suggests that capturing PROMs at six months is sufficient to assess the success of the procedure. Older patients and those with advanced radiological disease had the greater gains. These outcome predictors can be used to counsel younger patients and those with earlier ankle disease on the expectations of TAA.

Age differences in genetic and environmental variations in stress-coping during adulthood: a study of female twins.

The way people cope with stressors of day to day living has an important influence on health. The aim of the present study was to explore whether genetic and environmental variations in stress-coping differ over time during adulthood. The brief COPE was mailed to a large sample of the UK female twins (N = 4,736) having a wide range of age (20-87 years). Factor analyses of the items of the brief COPE yielded three coping scales: 'Problem-Solving', 'Support Seeking', and 'Avoidance'. Monozygotic and dizygotic twin correlations tended to become lower with age for all three scales, suggesting that unique environmental factors may become more important with age during adulthood. Model-fitting results showed that relative influences of unique environmental factors increased from 60 % at age 20 years to 74% at age 87 years for 'Problem-Solving' and 56 % at age 20 years to 76% at age 87 years for 'Avoidance'. During the same age period, genetic factors decreased from 40 to 26 % for 'Problem-Solving' and from 44 to 24 % for 'Avoidance'. For 'Seeking Support', the magnitude of genetic and unique environmental factors was not significantly different across the adulthood. For all three scales, shared environmental effects were negligible. Overall, our findings implicate that the effects of environment that stem from idiosyncratic experience of stressful life events accumulate and become increasingly important in adulthood.

Revision and 90-day mortality following hip arthroplasty in patients with inflammatory arthritis and ankylosing spondylitis enrolled in the National Joint Registry for England and Wales.

AIM: To assess revision rates and postoperative mortality in patients undergoing hip arthroplasty (HA) for inflammatory arthritis compared to hip osteoarthritis (OA). METHODS: The analysis was conducted among cases of HA that were recorded in the National Joint Registry for England and Wales (NJR) between April 2003 and December 2012 and linked to Office for National Statistics mortality records. Procedures were identified where the indication for surgery was listed as seropositive rheumatoid arthritis (RA), ankylosing spondylitis (AS), other inflammatory arthritis (otherIA), or OA. 5-year revision risk and 90-day postoperative mortality according to indication were compared using Cox regression models adjusted for age, sex, American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) grade, year of operation, implant type, and surgical approach. RESULTS: The cohort included 1457 HA procedures conducted for RA, 615 for AS, 1000 for otherIA, and 183,108 for OA. When compared with OA, there was no increased revision risk for any form of inflammatory arthritis (adjusted HRs: RA: 0.93 (0.64-1.35); AS: 1.14 (0.73-1.79); otherIA: 1.08 (0.73-1.59)). Postoperative 90-day mortality was increased for RA when compared with OA (adjusted HR: 2.86 (1.68-4.88)), but not for AS (adjusted HR: 1.56 (0.59-4.18)) or otherIA (adjusted HR: 0.64 (0.16-2.55)). CONCLUSIONS: The revision risk in HA performed for all types of inflammatory arthritis is similar to that for HA performed for OA. The 3-fold increased risk of 90-day mortality in patients with RA compared with OA highlights the need for active management of associated comorbidities in RA patients during the perioperative period.

Multi-ancestry genome-wide association analyses identify novel genetic mechanisms in rheumatoid arthritis.

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a highly heritable complex disease with unknown etiology. Multi-ancestry genetic research of RA promises to improve power to detect genetic signals, fine-mapping resolution and performances of polygenic risk scores (PRS). Here, we present a large-scale genome-wide association study (GWAS) of RA, which includes 276,020 samples from five ancestral groups. We conducted a multi-ancestry meta-analysis and identified 124 loci (P < 5 × 10-8), of which 34 are novel. Candidate genes at the novel loci suggest essential roles of the immune system (for example, TNIP2 and TNFRSF11A) and joint tissues (for example, WISP1) in RA etiology. Multi-ancestry fine-mapping identified putatively causal variants with biological insights (for example, LEF1). Moreover, PRS based on multi-ancestry GWAS outperformed PRS based on single-ancestry GWAS and had comparable performance between populations of European and East Asian ancestries. Our study provides several insights into the etiology of RA and improves the genetic predictability of RA.

Impact of comorbidities on the safety and effectiveness of hip and knee arthroplasty surgery.

AIMS: Access to joint replacement is being restricted for patients with comorbidities in a number of high-income countries. However, there is little evidence on the impact of comorbidities on outcomes. The purpose of this study was to determine the safety and effectiveness of hip and knee arthroplasty in patients with and without comorbidities. METHODS: In total, 312,079 hip arthroplasty and 328,753 knee arthroplasty patients were included. A total of 11 common comorbidities were identified in administrative hospital records. Safety risks were measured by assessing length of hospital stay (LOS) and 30-day emergency readmissions and mortality. Effectiveness outcomes were changes in Oxford Hip or Knee Scores (OHS/OKS) (scale from 0 (worst) to 48 (best)) and in health-related quality of life (EQ-5D) (scale from 0 (death) to 1 (full health)) from immediately before, to six months after, surgery. Regression analysis was used to estimate adjusted mean differences (LOS, change in OHS/OKS/EQ-5D) and risk differences (readmissions and mortality). RESULTS: Patients with comorbidities had a longer LOS and higher readmission and mortality rates than patients without. In hip arthroplasty patients with heart disease, for example, LOS was 1.20 days (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.15 to 1.25) longer and readmission rate was 1.52% (95% CI 1.34% to 1.71%) and mortality 0.19% (95% CI 0.15% to 0.23%) higher. Similar patterns were observed for knee arthroplasty patients. Patients without comorbidities reported large improvements in function (mean improvement OHS 21.3 (SD 9.91) and OKS 15.9 (SD 10.0)). Patients with comorbidities reported only slightly smaller improvements. In patients with heart disease, mean improvement in OHS was 0.39 (95% CI 0.27 to 0.51) and in OKS 0.56 (95% CI 0.45 to 0.67) less than in patients without comorbidities. There were no significant differences in EQ-5D improvement. CONCLUSION: Comorbidities were associated with small increases in adverse safety risks but they have little impact on pain or function in patients undergoing hip or knee arthroplasty. These results do not support restricting access to hip and knee arthroplasty for patients with common comorbidities. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(1):56-64.

Trajectories of pain and function in the first five years after total hip and knee arthroplasty : an analysis of patient reported outcome data from the National Joint Registry.

AIMS: To determine the trajectories of patient reported pain and functional disability over five years following total hip arthroplasty (THA) or total knee arthroplasty (TKA). METHODS: A prospective, longitudinal cohort sub-study within the National Joint Registry (NJR) was undertaken. In all, 20,089 patients who underwent primary THA and 22,489 who underwent primary TKA between 2009 and 2010 were sent Oxford Hip Score (OHS) and Oxford Knee Score (OKS) questionnaires at six months, and one, three, and five years postoperatively. OHS and OKS were disaggregated into pain and function subscales. A k-means clustering procedure assigned each patient to a longitudinal trajectory group for pain and function. Ordinal regression was used to predict trajectory group membership using baseline OHS and OKS score, age, BMI, index of multiple deprivation, sex, ethnicity, geographical location, and American Society of Anesthesiologists grade. RESULTS: Data described two discrete trajectories for pain and function: 'level 1' responders (around 70% of cases) in whom a high level of improvement is sustained over five years, and 'level 2' responders who had sustained improvement, but at a lower level. Baseline patient variables were only weak predictors of pain trajectory and modest predictors of function trajectory. Those with worse baseline pain and function tended to show a greater likelihood of following a 'level 2' trajectory. Six-month patient-reported outcome measures data reliably predicted the class of five-year outcome trajectory for both pain and function. CONCLUSION: The available preoperative patient variables were not reliable predictors of postoperative pain and function after THA and TKA. Reviewing patient outcomes at six months postoperatively is a reliable indicator of outcome at five years. Cite this article: Bone Joint J 2021;103-B(6):1111-1118.

Dynamic early identification of hip replacement implants with high revision rates. Study based on the NJR data from UK during 2004-2012.

BACKGROUND: Hip replacement and hip resurfacing are common surgical procedures with an estimated risk of revision of 4% over 10 year period. Approximately 58% of hip replacements will last 25 years. Some implants have higher revision rates and early identification of poorly performing hip replacement implant brands and cup/head brand combinations is vital. AIMS: Development of a dynamic monitoring method for the revision rates of hip implants. METHODS: Data on the outcomes following the hip replacement surgery between 2004 and 2012 was obtained from the National Joint Register (NJR) in the UK. A novel dynamic algorithm based on the CUmulative SUM (CUSUM) methodology with adjustment for casemix and random frailty for an operating unit was developed and implemented to monitor the revision rates over time. The Benjamini-Hochberg FDR method was used to adjust for multiple testing of numerous hip replacement implant brands and cup/ head combinations at each time point. RESULTS: Three poorly performing cup brands and two cup/ head brand combinations have been detected. Wright Medical UK Ltd Conserve Plus Resurfacing Cup (cup o), DePuy ASR Resurfacing Cup (cup e), and Endo Plus (UK) Limited EP-Fit Plus Polyethylene cup (cup g) showed stable multiple alarms over the period of a year or longer. An addition of a random frailty term did not change the list of underperforming components. The model with added random effect was more conservative, showing less and more delayed alarms. CONCLUSIONS: Our new algorithm is an efficient method for early detection of poorly performing components in hip replacement surgery. It can also be used for similar tasks of dynamic quality monitoring in healthcare.