Child wasting and concurrent stunting in low- and middle-income countries.

Sustainable Development Goal 2.2-to end malnutrition by 2030-includes the elimination of child wasting, defined as a weight-for-length z-score that is more than two standard deviations below the median of the World Health Organization standards for child growth1. Prevailing methods to measure wasting rely on cross-sectional surveys that cannot measure onset, recovery and persistence-key features that inform preventive interventions and estimates of disease burden. Here we analyse 21 longitudinal cohorts and show that wasting is a highly dynamic process of onset and recovery, with incidence peaking between birth and 3 months. Many more children experience an episode of wasting at some point during their first 24 months than prevalent cases at a single point in time suggest. For example, at the age of 24 months, 5.6% of children were wasted, but by the same age (24 months), 29.2% of children had experienced at least one wasting episode and 10.0% had experienced two or more episodes. Children who were wasted before the age of 6 months had a faster recovery and shorter episodes than did children who were wasted at older ages; however, early wasting increased the risk of later growth faltering, including concurrent wasting and stunting (low length-for-age z-score), and thus increased the risk of mortality. In diverse populations with high seasonal rainfall, the population average weight-for-length z-score varied substantially (more than 0.5 z in some cohorts), with the lowest mean z-scores occurring during the rainiest months; this indicates that seasonally targeted interventions could be considered. Our results show the importance of establishing interventions to prevent wasting from birth to the age of 6 months, probably through improved maternal nutrition, to complement current programmes that focus on children aged 6-59 months.

Early-childhood linear growth faltering in low- and middle-income countries.

Globally, 149 million children under 5 years of age are estimated to be stunted (length more than 2 standard deviations below international growth standards)1,2. Stunting, a form of linear growth faltering, increases the risk of illness, impaired cognitive development and mortality. Global stunting estimates rely on cross-sectional surveys, which cannot provide direct information about the timing of onset or persistence of growth faltering-a key consideration for defining critical windows to deliver preventive interventions. Here we completed a pooled analysis of longitudinal studies in low- and middle-income countries (n = 32 cohorts, 52,640 children, ages 0-24 months), allowing us to identify the typical age of onset of linear growth faltering and to investigate recurrent faltering in early life. The highest incidence of stunting onset occurred from birth to the age of 3 months, with substantially higher stunting at birth in South Asia. From 0 to 15 months, stunting reversal was rare; children who reversed their stunting status frequently relapsed, and relapse rates were substantially higher among children born stunted. Early onset and low reversal rates suggest that improving children's linear growth will require life course interventions for women of childbearing age and a greater emphasis on interventions for children under 6 months of age.

Causes and consequences of child growth faltering in low-resource settings.

Growth faltering in children (low length for age or low weight for length) during the first 1,000 days of life (from conception to 2 years of age) influences short-term and long-term health and survival1,2. Interventions such as nutritional supplementation during pregnancy and the postnatal period could help prevent growth faltering, but programmatic action has been insufficient to eliminate the high burden of stunting and wasting in low- and middle-income countries. Identification of age windows and population subgroups on which to focus will benefit future preventive efforts. Here we use a population intervention effects analysis of 33 longitudinal cohorts (83,671 children, 662,763 measurements) and 30 separate exposures to show that improving maternal anthropometry and child condition at birth accounted for population increases in length-for-age z-scores of up to 0.40 and weight-for-length z-scores of up to 0.15 by 24 months of age. Boys had consistently higher risk of all forms of growth faltering than girls. Early postnatal growth faltering predisposed children to subsequent and persistent growth faltering. Children with multiple growth deficits exhibited higher mortality rates from birth to 2 years of age than children without growth deficits (hazard ratios 1.9 to 8.7). The importance of prenatal causes and severe consequences for children who experienced early growth faltering support a focus on pre-conception and pregnancy as a key opportunity for new preventive interventions.

Remdesivir for Treatment of COVID-19 Requiring Oxygen Support: A Cross-Study Comparison from Two Large, Open-Label Studies.

BACKGROUND: Remdesivir, an RNA-polymerase prodrug inhibitor approved for treatment of COVID-19, shortens recovery time and improves clinical outcomes. This prespecified analysis compared remdesivir plus standard-of-care (SOC) with SOC alone in adults hospitalized with COVID-19 requiring oxygen support in the early stage of the pandemic. METHODS: Data for 10-day remdesivir treatment plus SOC from the extension phase of an open-label study (NCT04292899) were compared with real-world, retrospective data on SOC alone (EUPAS34303). Both studies included patients aged ≥18 years hospitalized with SARS-CoV-2 up to 30 May 2020, with oxygen saturation ≤94%, on room air or supplemental oxygen (all forms), and with pulmonary infiltrates. Propensity score weighting was used to balance patient demographics and clinical characteristics across treatment groups. The primary endpoint was time to all-cause mortality or end of study (day 28). Time-to-discharge, with a 10-day landmark to account for duration of remdesivir treatment, was a secondary endpoint. RESULTS: 1974 patients treated with remdesivir plus SOC, and 1426 with SOC alone, were included after weighting. Remdesivir significantly reduced mortality versus SOC (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.46, 95% confidence interval: 0.39-0.54). This association was observed at each oxygen support level, with the lowest HR for patients on low-flow oxygen. Remdesivir significantly increased the likelihood of discharge at day 28 versus SOC in the 10-day landmark analysis (HR: 1.64; 95% confidence interval: 1.43-1.87). CONCLUSIONS: Remdesivir plus early-2020 SOC was associated with a 54% lower mortality risk and shorter hospital stays compared with SOC alone in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 requiring oxygen support. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04292899 and EUPAS34303.

Adaptive sequential surveillance with network and temporal dependence.

Strategic test allocation is important for control of both emerging and existing pandemics (eg, COVID-19, HIV). It supports effective epidemic control by (1) reducing transmission via identifying cases and (2) tracking outbreak dynamics to inform targeted interventions. However, infectious disease surveillance presents unique statistical challenges. For instance, the true outcome of interest (positive infection status) is often a latent variable. In addition, presence of both network and temporal dependence reduces data to a single observation. In this work, we study an adaptive sequential design, which allows for unspecified dependence among individuals and across time. Our causal parameter is the mean latent outcome we would have obtained, if, starting at time t given the observed past, we had carried out a stochastic intervention that maximizes the outcome under a resource constraint. The key strength of the method is that we do not have to model network and time dependence: a short-term performance Online Super Learner is used to select among dependence models and randomization schemes. The proposed strategy learns the optimal choice of testing over time while adapting to the current state of the outbreak and learning across samples, through time, or both. We demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed strategy in an agent-based simulation modeling a residential university environment during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Personalized online ensemble machine learning with applications for dynamic data streams.

In this work we introduce the personalized online super learner (POSL), an online personalizable ensemble machine learning algorithm for streaming data. POSL optimizes predictions with respect to baseline covariates, so personalization can vary from completely individualized, that is, optimization with respect to subject ID, to many individuals, that is, optimization with respect to common baseline covariates. As an online algorithm, POSL learns in real time. As a super learner, POSL is grounded in statistical optimality theory and can leverage a diversity of candidate algorithms, including online algorithms with different training and update times, fixed/offline algorithms that are not updated during POSL's fitting procedure, pooled algorithms that learn from many individuals' time series, and individualized algorithms that learn from within a single time series. POSL's ensembling of the candidates can depend on the amount of data collected, the stationarity of the time series, and the mutual characteristics of a group of time series. Depending on the underlying data-generating process and the information available in the data, POSL is able to adapt to learning across samples, through time, or both. For a range of simulations that reflect realistic forecasting scenarios and in a medical application, we examine the performance of POSL relative to other current ensembling and online learning methods. We show that POSL is able to provide reliable predictions for both short and long time series, and it's able to adjust to changing data-generating environments. We further cultivate POSL's practicality by extending it to settings where time series dynamically enter and exit.

Evaluating the robustness of targeted maximum likelihood estimators via realistic simulations in nutrition intervention trials.

Several recently developed methods have the potential to harness machine learning in the pursuit of target quantities inspired by causal inference, including inverse weighting, doubly robust estimating equations and substitution estimators like targeted maximum likelihood estimation. There are even more recent augmentations of these procedures that can increase robustness, by adding a layer of cross-validation (cross-validated targeted maximum likelihood estimation and double machine learning, as applied to substitution and estimating equation approaches, respectively). While these methods have been evaluated individually on simulated and experimental data sets, a comprehensive analysis of their performance across real data based simulations have yet to be conducted. In this work, we benchmark multiple widely used methods for estimation of the average treatment effect using ten different nutrition intervention studies data. A nonparametric regression method, undersmoothed highly adaptive lasso, is used to generate the simulated distribution which preserves important features from the observed data and reproduces a set of true target parameters. For each simulated data, we apply the methods above to estimate the average treatment effects as well as their standard errors and resulting confidence intervals. Based on the analytic results, a general recommendation is put forth for use of the cross-validated variants of both substitution and estimating equation estimators. We conclude that the additional layer of cross-validation helps in avoiding unintentional over-fitting of nuisance parameter functionals and leads to more robust inferences.

Prediction of obstetrical and fetal complications using automated electronic health record data.

An increasing number of delivering women experience major morbidity and mortality. Limited work has been done on automated predictive models that could be used for prevention. Using only routinely collected obstetrical data, this study aimed to develop a predictive model suitable for real-time use with an electronic medical record. We used a retrospective cohort study design with split validation. The denominator consisted of women admitted to a delivery service. The numerator consisted of women who experienced a composite outcome that included both maternal (eg, uterine rupture, postpartum hemorrhage), fetal (eg, stillbirth), and neonatal (eg, hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy) adverse events. We employed machine learning methods, assessing model performance using the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve and number needed to evaluate. A total of 303,678 deliveries took place at 15 study hospitals between January 1, 2010, and March 31, 2018, and 4130 (1.36%) had ≥1 obstetrical complication. We employed data from 209,611 randomly selected deliveries (January 1, 2010, to March 31, 2017) as a derivation dataset and validated our findings on data from 52,398 randomly selected deliveries during the same time period (validation 1 dataset). We then applied our model to data from 41,669 deliveries from the last year of the study (April 1, 2017, to March 31, 2018 [validation 2 dataset]). Our model included 35 variables (eg, demographics, vital signs, laboratory tests, progress of labor indicators). In the validation 2 dataset, a gradient boosted model (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve or c statistic, 0.786) was slightly superior to a logistic regression model (c statistic, 0.778). Using an alert threshold of 4.1%, our final model would flag 16.7% of women and detect 52% of adverse outcomes, with a number needed to evaluate of 20.9 and 0.455 first alerts per day per 1000 annual deliveries. In conclusion, electronic medical record data can be used to predict obstetrical complications. The clinical utility of these automated models has not yet been demonstrated. To conduct interventions to assess whether using these models results in patient benefit, future work will need to focus on the development of clinical protocols suitable for use in interventions.

microRNA changes in liver tissue associated with fibrosis progression in patients with hepatitis C.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Accumulating evidence indicates that microRNAs play a role in a number of disease processes including the pathogenesis of liver fibrosis in hepatitis C infection. Our goal is to add to the accruing information regarding microRNA deregulation in liver fibrosis to increase our understanding of the underlying mechanisms of pathology and progression. METHODS: We used next generation sequencing to profile all detectable microRNAs in liver tissue and serum from patients with hepatitis C, stages F1-F4 of fibrosis. RESULTS: We found altered expression of several microRNAs, in particular, miR-182, miR199a-5p, miR-200a-5p and miR-183 were found to be significantly upregulated in tissue from liver biopsies of hepatitis C patients with advanced fibrosis, stage F3 and F4, when compared with liver biopsies from patients with early fibrosis, stages F1 and F2. We also found miR-148-5p, miR-1260b, miR-122-3p and miR-378i among the microRNAs most significantly down-regulated from early to advanced fibrosis of the liver. We also sequenced the serum microRNAs; however, we were not able to detect significant changes in circulating microRNAs associated with fibrosis stage after adjusting for multiple tests. CONCLUSIONS: Adding measurements of tissue microRNAs acquired during routine biopsies will continue to increase our knowledge of underlying mechanisms of fibrosis. Our goal is that these data, in combination with studies from other researchers and future long-term studies, could be used to enhance the staging accuracy of liver biopsies and expand the surveillance of patients at increased risk for cancer and progression to advanced fibrosis.

Kernel Debiased Plug-in Estimation: Simultaneous, Automated Debiasing without Influence Functions for Many Target Parameters.

When estimating target parameters in nonparametric models with nuisance parameters, substituting the unknown nuisances with nonparametric estimators can introduce "plug-in bias." Traditional methods addressing this suboptimal bias-variance trade-off rely on the influence function (IF) of the target parameter. When estimating multiple target parameters, these methods require debiasing the nuisance parameter multiple times using the corresponding IFs, which poses analytical and computational challenges. In this work, we leverage the targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) framework to propose a novel method named kernel debiased plug-in estimation (KDPE). KDPE refines an initial estimate through regularized likelihood maximization steps, employing a nonparametric model based on reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. We show that KDPE: (i) simultaneously debiases all pathwise differentiable target parameters that satisfy our regularity conditions, (ii) does not require the IF for implementation, and (iii) remains computationally tractable. We numerically illustrate the use of KDPE and validate our theoretical results.

Comparative effectiveness of remote digital gamified and group CBT skills training interventions for anxiety and depression among college students: Results of a three-arm randomised controlled trial.

Digital interventions can enhance access to healthcare in under-resourced settings. However, guided digital interventions may be costly for low- and middle-income countries, despite their effectiveness. In this randomised control trial, we evaluated the effectiveness of two digital interventions designed to address this issue: (1) a Cognitive Behavioral Therapy Skills Training (CST) intervention that increased scalability by using remote online group administration; and (2) the SuperBetter gamified self-guided CBT skills training app, which uses other participants rather than paid staff as guides. The study was implemented among anxious and/or depressed South African undergraduates (n = 371) randomised with equal allocation to Remote Group CST, SuperBetter, or a MoodFlow mood monitoring control. Symptoms were assessed with the Generalized Anxiety Disorder-7 (GAD-7) and the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9). Intention-to-treat analysis found effect sizes at the high end of prior digital intervention trials, including significantly higher adjusted risk differences (ARD; primary outcome) in joint anxiety/depression remission at 3-months and 6-months for Remote Group CST (ARD = 23.3-18.9%, p = 0.001-0.035) and SuperBetter (ARD = 12.7-22.2%, p = 0.047-0.006) than MoodFlow and mean combined PHQ-9/GAD-7 scores (secondary outcome) significantly lower for Remote Group CST and SuperBetter than MoodFlow. These results illustrate how innovative delivery methods can increase the scalability of standard one-on-one guided digital interventions. PREREGISTRATION INTERNATIONAL STANDARD RANDOMISED CONTROLLED TRIAL NUMBER (ISRTCN) SUBMISSION #: 47,089,643.

Treatment Heterogeneity of Water, Sanitation, Hygiene, and Nutrition Interventions on Child Growth by Environmental Enteric Dysfunction and Pathogen Status for Young Children in Bangladesh.

Background: Water, sanitation, hygiene (WSH), nutrition (N), and combined (N+WSH) interventions are often implemented by global health organizations, but WSH interventions may insufficiently reduce pathogen exposure, and nutrition interventions may be modified by environmental enteric dysfunction (EED), a condition of increased intestinal permeability and inflammation. This study investigated the heterogeneity of these treatments' effects based on individual pathogen and EED biomarker status with respect to child linear growth. Methods: We applied cross-validated targeted maximum likelihood estimation and super learner ensemble machine learning to assess the conditional treatment effects in subgroups defined by biomarker and pathogen status. We analyzed treatment (N+WSH, WSH, N, or control) randomly assigned in-utero, child pathogen and EED data at 14 months of age, and child LAZ at 28 months of age. We estimated the difference in mean child length for age Z-score (LAZ) under the treatment rule and the difference in stratified treatment effect (treatment effect difference) comparing children with high versus low pathogen/biomarker status while controlling for baseline covariates. Results: We analyzed data from 1,522 children, who had median LAZ of -1.56. We found that myeloperoxidase (N+WSH treatment effect difference 0.0007 LAZ, WSH treatment effect difference 0.1032 LAZ, N treatment effect difference 0.0037 LAZ) and Campylobacter infection (N+WSH treatment effect difference 0.0011 LAZ, WSH difference 0.0119 LAZ, N difference 0.0255 LAZ) were associated with greater effect of all interventions on growth. In other words, children with high myeloperoxidase or Campylobacter infection experienced a greater impact of the interventions on growth. We found that a treatment rule that assigned the N+WSH (LAZ difference 0.23, 95% CI (0.05, 0.41)) and WSH (LAZ difference 0.17, 95% CI (0.04, 0.30)) interventions based on EED biomarkers and pathogens increased predicted child growth compared to the randomly allocated intervention. Conclusions: These findings indicate that EED biomarker and pathogen status, particularly Campylobacter and myeloperoxidase (a measure of gut inflammation), may be related to impact of N+WSH, WSH, and N interventions on child linear growth.

Clinical artificial intelligence quality improvement: towards continual monitoring and updating of AI algorithms in healthcare.

Machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms have the potential to derive insights from clinical data and improve patient outcomes. However, these highly complex systems are sensitive to changes in the environment and liable to performance decay. Even after their successful integration into clinical practice, ML/AI algorithms should be continuously monitored and updated to ensure their long-term safety and effectiveness. To bring AI into maturity in clinical care, we advocate for the creation of hospital units responsible for quality assurance and improvement of these algorithms, which we refer to as "AI-QI" units. We discuss how tools that have long been used in hospital quality assurance and quality improvement can be adapted to monitor static ML algorithms. On the other hand, procedures for continual model updating are still nascent. We highlight key considerations when choosing between existing methods and opportunities for methodological innovation.

Learned adaptive multiphoton illumination microscopy for large-scale immune response imaging.

Multiphoton microscopy is a powerful technique for deep in vivo imaging in scattering samples. However, it requires precise, sample-dependent increases in excitation power with depth in order to generate contrast in scattering tissue, while minimizing photobleaching and phototoxicity. We show here how adaptive imaging can optimize illumination power at each point in a 3D volume as a function of the sample's shape, without the need for specialized fluorescent labeling. Our method relies on training a physics-based machine learning model using cells with identical fluorescent labels imaged in situ. We use this technique for in vivo imaging of immune responses in mouse lymph nodes following vaccination. We achieve visualization of physiologically realistic numbers of antigen-specific T cells (~2 orders of magnitude lower than previous studies), and demonstrate changes in the global organization and motility of dendritic cell networks during the early stages of the immune response. We provide a step-by-step tutorial for implementing this technique using exclusively open-source hardware and software.

Big data and targeted machine learning in action to assist medical decision in the ICU.

Historically, personalised medicine has been synonymous with pharmacogenomics and oncology. We argue for a new framework for personalised medicine analytics that capitalises on more detailed patient-level data and leverages recent advances in causal inference and machine learning tailored towards decision support applicable to critically ill patients. We discuss how advances in data technology and statistics are providing new opportunities for asking more targeted questions regarding patient treatment, and how this can be applied in the intensive care unit to better predict patient-centred outcomes, help in the discovery of new treatment regimens associated with improved outcomes, and ultimately how these rules can be learned in real-time for the patient.

Methods for CpG Methylation Array Profiling Via Bisulfite Conversion.

DNA methylation is a key factor in epigenetic regulation, and contributes to the pathogenesis of many diseases, including various forms of cancers, and epigenetic events such X inactivation, cellular differentiation and proliferation, and embryonic development. The most conserved epigenetic modification in plants, animals, and fungi is 5-methylcytosine (5mC), which has been well characterized across a diverse range of species. Many technologies have been developed to measure modifications in methylation with respect to biological processes, and the most common method, long considered a gold standard for identifying regions of methylation, is bisulfite conversion. In this technique, DNA is treated with bisulfite, which converts cytosine residues to uracil, but does not affect cytosine residues that have been methylated, such as 5-methylcytosines. Following bisulfite conversion, the only cytosine residues remaining in the DNA, therefore, are those that have been methylated. Subsequent sequencing can then distinguish between unmethylated cytosines, which are displayed as thymines in the resulting amplified sequence of the sense strand, and 5-methylcytosines, which are displayed as cytosines in the resulting amplified sequence of the sense strand, at the single nucleotide level. In this chapter, we describe an array-based protocol for identifying methylated DNA regions. We discuss protocols for DNA quantification, bisulfite conversion, library preparation, and chip assembly, and present an overview of current methods for the analysis of methylation data.

Differentially methylated loci in NAFLD cirrhosis are associated with key signaling pathways.

Altered DNA methylation events contribute to the pathogenesis and progression of metabolic disorders, including nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Investigations of global DNA methylation patterns in liver biopsies representing severe NAFLD fibrosis have been limited. We used the HumanMethylation 450K BeadChip to analyze genome-wide methylation in patients with biopsy-proven grade 3/4 NAFLD fibrosis/cirrhosis (N = 14) and age- and sex-matched controls with normal histology (N = 15). We identified 208 CpG islands (CGIs), including 99 hypomethylated and 109 hypermethylated CGIs, showing statistically significant evidence (adjusted P value < 0.05) for differential methylation between cirrhotic and normal samples. Comparison of ß values for each CGI to the read count of its corresponding gene obtained from RNA-sequencing analysis revealed negative correlation (adjusted P value < 0.05) for 34 transcripts. These findings provide supporting evidence for a role for CpG methylation in the pathogenesis of NAFLD-related cirrhosis, including confirmation of previously reported differentially methylated CGIs, and contribute new insight into the molecular mechanisms underlying the initiation and progression of liver fibrosis and cirrhosis.

Serum MicroRNAs Reflect Injury Severity in a Large Animal Model of Thoracic Spinal Cord Injury.

Therapeutic development for spinal cord injury is hindered by the difficulty in conducting clinical trials, which to date have relied solely on functional outcome measures for patient enrollment, stratification, and evaluation. Biological biomarkers that accurately classify injury severity and predict neurologic outcome would represent a paradigm shift in the way spinal cord injury clinical trials could be conducted. MicroRNAs have emerged as attractive biomarker candidates due to their stability in biological fluids, their phylogenetic similarities, and their tissue specificity. Here we characterized a porcine model of spinal cord injury using a combined behavioural, histological, and molecular approach. We performed next-generation sequencing on microRNAs in serum samples collected before injury and then at 1, 3, and 5 days post injury. We identified 58, 21, 9, and 7 altered miRNA after severe, moderate, and mild spinal cord injury, and SHAM surgery, respectively. These data were combined with behavioural and histological analysis. Overall miRNA expression at 1 and 3 days post injury strongly correlates with outcome measures at 12 weeks post injury. The data presented here indicate that serum miRNAs are promising candidates as biomarkers for the evaluation of injury severity for spinal cord injury or other forms of traumatic, acute, neurologic injury.