Spatial and temporal analysis of road traffic crashes and ambulance responses in Lagos state, Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Sub-Saharan African countries, Nigeria inclusive, are constrained by grossly limited access to quality pre-hospital trauma care services (PTCS). Findings from pragmatic approaches that explore spatial and temporal trends of past road crashes can inform novel interventions. To improve access to PTCS and reduce burden of road traffic injuries we explored geospatial trends of past emergency responses to road traffic crashes (RTCs) by Lagos State Ambulance Service (LASAMBUS), assessed efficiency of responses, and outcomes of interventions by local government areas (LGAs) of crash. METHODS: Using descriptive cross-sectional design and REDcap we explored pre-hospital care data of 1220 crash victims documented on LASAMBUS intervention forms from December 2017 to May 2018. We analyzed trends in days and times of calls, demographics of victims, locations of crashes and causes of delayed emergency responses. Assisted with STATA 16 and ArcGIS pro we conducted descriptive statistics and mapping of crash metrics including spatial and temporal relationships between times of the day, seasons of year, and crash LGA population density versus RTCs incidence. Descriptive analysis and mapping were used to assess relationships between 'Causes of Delayed response' and respective crash LGAs, and between Response Times and crash LGAs. RESULTS: Incidences of RTCs were highest across peak commuting hours (07:00-12:59 and 13:00-18:59), rainy season and harmattan (foggy) months, and densely populated LGAs. Five urban LGAs accounted for over half of RTCs distributions: Eti-Osa (14.7%), Ikeja (14.4%), Kosofe (9.9%), Ikorodu (9.7%), and Alimosho (6.6%). On intervention forms with a Cause of Delay, Traffic Congestion (60%), and Poor Description (17.8%), had associations with LGA distribution. Two densely populated urban LGAs, Agege and Apapa were significantly associated with Traffic Congestion as a Cause of Delay. LASAMBUS was able to address crash in only 502 (36.8%) of the 1220 interventions. Other notable outcomes include: No Crash (false calls) (26.6%), and Crash Already Addressed (22.17%). CONCLUSIONS: Geospatial analysis of past road crashes in Lagos state offered key insights into spatial and temporal trends of RTCs across LGAs, and identified operational constraints of state-organized PTCS and factors associated with delayed emergency responses. Findings can inform programmatic interventions to improve trauma care outcomes.

Using parallel geocoding to analyse the spatial characteristics of road traffic injury occurrences across Lagos, Nigeria.

While efforts to understand and mitigate road traffic injury (RTI) occurrence have long been underway in high-income countries, similar projects in low/middle-income countries (LMICs) are frequently hindered by institutional and informational obstacles. Technological advances in geospatial analysis provide a pathway to overcome a subset of these barriers, and in doing so enable researchers to create actionable insights in the pursuit of mitigating RTI-associated negative health outcomes. This analysis develops a parallel geocoding workflow to improve investigation of low-fidelity datasets common in LMICs. Subsequently, this workflow is applied to and evaluated on an RTI dataset from Lagos State, Nigeria, minimising positional error in geocoding by incorporating outputs from four commercially available geocoders. The concordance between outputs from these geocoders is evaluated, and spatial visualisations are generated to provide insight into the distribution of RTI occurrence within the analysis region. This study highlights the implications of geospatial data analysis in LMICs facilitated by modern technologies on health resource allocation, and ultimately, patient outcomes.

Identifying Hot Spots of Tuberculosis in Nigeria Using an Early Warning Outbreak Recognition System: Retrospective Analysis of Implications for Active Case Finding Interventions.

BACKGROUND: Undiagnosed tuberculosis (TB) cases are the major challenge to TB control in Nigeria. An early warning outbreak recognition system (EWORS) is a system that is primarily used to detect infectious disease outbreaks; this system can be used as a case-based geospatial tool for the real-time identification of hot spot areas with clusters of TB patients. TB screening targeted at such hot spots should yield more TB cases than screening targeted at non-hot spots. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to demonstrate the effectiveness of an EWORS for TB hot spot mapping as a tool for detecting areas with increased TB case yields in high TB-burden states of Nigeria. METHODS: KNCV Tuberculosis Foundation Nigeria deployed an EWORS to 14 high-burden states in Nigeria. The system used an advanced surveillance mechanism to identify TB patients' residences in clusters, enabling it to predict areas with elevated disease spread (ie, hot spots) at the ward level. TB screening outreach using the World Health Organization 4-symptom screening method was conducted in 121 hot spot wards and 213 non-hot spot wards selected from the same communities. Presumptive cases identified were evaluated for TB using the GeneXpert instrument or chest X-ray. Confirmed TB cases from both areas were linked to treatment. Data from the hot spot and non-hot spot wards were analyzed retrospectively for this study. RESULTS: During the 16-month intervention, a total of 1,962,042 persons (n=734,384, 37.4% male, n=1,227,658, 62.6% female) and 2,025,286 persons (n=701,103, 34.6% male, n=1,324,183, 65.4% female) participated in the community TB screening outreaches in the hot spot and non-hot spot areas, respectively. Presumptive cases among all patients screened were 268,264 (N=3,987,328, 6.7%) and confirmed TB cases were 22,618 (N=222,270, 10.1%). The number needed to screen to diagnose a TB case in the hot spot and non-hot spot areas was 146 and 193 per 10,000 people, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Active TB case finding in EWORS-mapped hot spot areas yielded higher TB cases than the non-hot spot areas in the 14 high-burden states of Nigeria. With the application of EWORS, the precision of diagnosing TB among presumptive cases increased from 0.077 to 0.103, and the number of presumptive cases needed to diagnose a TB case decreased from 14.047 to 10.255 per 10,000 people.

Assessment of Knowledge, Skills, and Preparedness of General-Duty Police on Prehospital Care of Road Traffic Accident Victims in Abuja, Nigeria.

OBJECTIVES: Prompt prehospital care (PHC) is essential for improving outcomes of road traffic accident victims. Previous studies in Nigeria show that little or no PHC is delivered to trauma victims by first responders. This study was conducted to assess police officers' experience with FA/BLS, to identify gaps in their FA/BLS knowledge and skills, and assess police stations' FA/BLS equipment capacity for PHC of road traffic accident victims. METHODS: This cross-sectional study was conducted among 428 GD police in Abuja between November and December 2018. Respondents were selected using stratified random sampling with proportional allocation method. Data were collected using self-administered electronic semi-structured questionnaires. Data analysis was done using STATA v 14.0 (StataCorp, College Station, TX). Chi-square and multivariate logistic regression were used to assess associations. RESULTS: We analyzed data from 419 respondents. Almost all (90.2%) of the police were aware of FA/BLS. The proportion of police with poor, fair, and good knowledge and skills on FA/BLS were 15.3%, 79.0%, and 5.7%, respectively. Tertiary (OR = 3.35, 95% CI: 1.01-11.11, P = 0.048) and postgraduate (OR = 6.89, 95% CI: 1.63-29.19, P = 0.009) levels of education had statistically significant association with good knowledge and skills. CONCLUSION: This highlights the need to implement an educational intervention to increase FA/BLS competencies within the first responder population.

Lagos state ambulance service: a performance evaluation.

OBJECTIVES: The mortality rate from road traffic accidents (RTAs) in Nigeria is almost double that of the USA. In Nigeria, the first emergency medical services (EMS) system was established in March 2001, The Lagos State Ambulance Service (LASAMBUS). The objectives of this study are to (1) determine the burden of RTAs in Lagos, (2) assess RTA call outcomes, and (3) analyze LASAMBUS's response time and causes for delay. METHODOLOGY: We reviewed completed LASAMBUS intervention forms spanning December 2017 to May 2018. We categorized the call outcomes into five groups: I. Addressed Crash, II. No Crash (False Call), III. Crash Already Addressed, IV. Did Not Respond, and V. Other. We further explored associations between the (1) causes for delay and outcomes and (2) response times and the outcomes. RESULTS: Overall, we analyzed 1352 intervention forms. We found that LASAMBUS did not address 53% of the RTA calls that they received. Of this, Outcome II. No Crash (False Call) accounted for 26% and Outcome III. Crash Already Addressed accounted for 22%. Self-reported causes for delay were recorded in 180 forms, representing 13.7% of the RTA burden. Traffic congestion accounted for 60% of this distribution. CONCLUSION: LASAMBUS response rates are significantly lower than response rates in high-income countries such as the USA and lead to increased RTA mortality rates. Eliminating causes for delay will improve both LASAMBUS effectiveness and RTA victims' health outcomes. Changing the public perception of LASAMBUS and standardizing LASAMBUS' contact information will aid this as well.