Publisher Correction: Genomic insights into the 2016-2017 cholera epidemic in Yemen.

In the HTML version of this Letter, the affiliations for authors Andrew S. Azman, Dhirendra Kumar and Thandavarayan Ramamurthy were inverted (the PDF and print versions of the Letter were correct); the affiliations have been corrected online.

Genomic insights into the 2016-2017 cholera epidemic in Yemen.

Yemen is currently experiencing, to our knowledge, the largest cholera epidemic in recent history. The first cases were declared in September 2016, and over 1.1 million cases and 2,300 deaths have since been reported1. Here we investigate the phylogenetic relationships, pathogenesis and determinants of antimicrobial resistance by sequencing the genomes of Vibrio cholerae isolates from the epidemic in Yemen and recent isolates from neighbouring regions. These 116 genomic sequences were placed within the phylogenetic context of a global collection of 1,087 isolates of the seventh pandemic V. cholerae serogroups O1 and O139 biotype El Tor2-4. We show that the isolates from Yemen that were collected during the two epidemiological waves of the epidemic1-the first between 28 September 2016 and 23 April 2017 (25,839 suspected cases) and the second beginning on 24 April 2017 (more than 1 million suspected cases)-are V. cholerae serotype Ogawa isolates from a single sublineage of the seventh pandemic V. cholerae O1 El Tor (7PET) lineage. Using genomic approaches, we link the epidemic in Yemen to global radiations of pandemic V. cholerae and show that this sublineage originated from South Asia and that it caused outbreaks in East Africa before appearing in Yemen. Furthermore, we show that the isolates from Yemen are susceptible to several antibiotics that are commonly used to treat cholera and to polymyxin B, resistance to which is used as a marker of the El Tor biotype.

Health equity in Somalia? An evaluation of the progress made from 2006 to 2019 in reducing inequities in maternal and newborn health.

BACKGROUND: Every human being has the right to affordable, high-quality health services. However, mothers and children in wealthier households worldwide have better access to healthcare and lower mortality rates than those in lower-income ones. Despite Somalia's fragile health system and the under-5 mortality rate being among the highest worldwide, it has made progress in increasing reproductive, maternal, and child health care coverage. However, evidence suggests that not all groups have benefited equally. We analysed secondary 2006 and 2018-19 data to monitor disparities in reproductive, maternal, and child health care in Somalia. METHODS: The study's variables of interest are the percentage of contraceptive prevalence through modern methods, adolescent fertility rate, prenatal care, the rate of births attended by midwives, the rate of births in a health care facility, the rate of early initiation of breastfeeding, stunting and wasting prevalence and care-seeking for children under-five. As the outcome variable, we analysed the under-five mortality rate. Using reliable data from secondary sources, we calculated the difference and ratio of the best and worst-performing groups for 2006 and 2018-19 in Somalia and measured the changes between the two. RESULTS: Between 2006 and 2018-19, An increase in the difference between women with high and low incomes was noticed in terms of attended labours. Little change was noted regarding socioeconomic inequities in breastfeeding. The difference in the stunting prevalence between the highest and lowest income children decreased by 20.5 points, and the difference in the wasting prevalence of the highest and the lowest income children decreased by 9% points. Care-seeking increased by 31.1% points. Finally, although under-five mortality rates have decreased in the study period, a marked income slope remains. CONCLUSIONS: The study's findings indicate that Somalia achieved significant progress in reducing malnutrition inequalities in children, a positive development that may have also contributed to the decrease in under-five mortality rate inequities also reported in this study. However, an increase in inequalities related to access to contraception and healthcare for mothers is shown, as well as for care-seeking for sick children under the age of five. To ensure that all mothers and children have equal access to healthcare, it is crucial to enhance efforts in providing essential quality healthcare services and distributing them fairly and equitably across Somalia.

Population health trends and disease profile in Somalia 1990-2019, and projection to 2030: will the country achieve sustainable development goals 2 and 3?

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to evaluate whether Somalia will reach Sustainable Development Goals 2 and 3 by 2030 and what the country requires to advance closer to these objectives. SETTING: Somalia. PARTICIPANTS: We carried out analyses of secondary data obtained from the following open-access databases: Global Burden of Disease 2019 study; United Nations (UN) Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division; World Bank World Development Indicators; United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF); UNICEF/World Health Organisation (WHO)/World Bank Joint Child Malnutrition Estimates; and UN Interagency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME), disaggregated by sex. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: stillbirth, neonatal, infant, under-five, maternal and child mortality; under-five malnutrition; life expectancy; health-adjusted life expectancy; age-standardised all-cause mortality; age-standardised cause-specific mortality for the leading causes of death; disability-adjusted life years. SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: vitamin A coverage; stunting, overweight in children under 5; top risk factors contributing to cause-specific mortality. RESULTS: life expectancy in Somalia will increase to 65.42 years (95% UI 62.30-68.54) for females and 58.54 years (95% UI 54.89-62.19) for males in 2030. Stunting will continue to decline to 25.2% (90% UI 13.9-39.5%), and the under-five mortality rate will drop to 85.9 per 1000 live births (90% UI 22.0-228.1 per 1000 live births) for females and 96.4 per 1000 live births (90% UI 24.8-255.3 per 1000 live births) for males in 2030. This study's analyses predict that the maternal mortality ratio in Somalia will decline to 696.42 deaths per 100,000 live births in 2030. CONCLUSIONS: there has been progress towards SDG targets in Somalia since 1990. To achieve these, Somalia requires greater health improvements than observed between 1990 and 2019.

Systemic Administration of Porphyromonas Gingivalis Lipopolysaccharide Induces Glial Activation and Depressive-Like Behavior in Rats.

BACKGROUND: Periodontitis is one of the most common chronic inflammatory disorders in adults. Although clinical studies have suggested a causal relationship between periodontitis and major depression (MD), the biological mechanisms by which periodontitis instigates MD are unknown. We investigated whether a systemic administration of lipopolysaccharide (LPS) from Porphyromonas gingivalis (Pg), a major Gram-negative pathogen of periodontitis, causes depressive-like behavior and glial activation in the hippocampus and the prefrontal cortex (PFC), which are MD-related brain regions. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Eight-week-old male Sprague Dawley rats were randomly divided into a behavioral test group and an immunohistochemistry group. The rats in each group were further assigned to the sham injection (saline) and Porphyromonas gingivalis-lipopolysaccharide (Pg-LPS) injection protocols. The rats received an intraperitoneal injection of saline or Pg-LPS with gradually increasing doses (day 1: 0.5, day 2: 0.5, day 3: 0.75, day 4: 0.75, day 5: 1.0, day 6: 1.0, and day 7: 1.0 mg/kg of body weight) for seven consecutive days. After the systemic administration, the behavior test group underwent the forced swimming test (FST) and Y-maze test. For the immunohistochemistry group, we quantified the immunoreactivity for microglial Iba-1 (ionized calcium-binding adapter molecule 1) and astrocytic glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) in the hippocampus (dentate gyrus [DG], cornu ammonis [CA1 and CA3]) and PFC (prelimbic [PrL] and the infralimbic [IL]) areas. RESULTS: The FST immobility time in the Pg-LPS group was significantly longer than that in the sham group. In the Y-maze test, a significant decline in spontaneous alternation behavior was observed in the Pg-LPS group compared to the sham group. The peripheral administration of Pg-LPS significantly increased the immunoreactivity for Iba-1 in the CA3 and PrL. Pg-LPS injection significantly increased the immunoreactivity for GFAP in the DG, CA1, and CA3. CONCLUSIONS: The major result of this study is that a repeated systemic administration of Pg-LPS caused depressive-like behavior and both microglial and astrocytic activation in rats. This finding may comprise biological evidence of a causal relationship between periodontitis and MD.

Screening of ZIKA virus infection among dengue-like illness patients with negative RT-PCR for dengue virus in Punjab - Pakistan.

OBJECTIVE: To detect ZIKV using reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) among clinical samples tested negative for Dengue virus (DENV) by RT-PCR in Punjab, 2016. METHODS: A descriptive cross-sectional study was carried out for duration of two months. Total of 506 samples were collected within seven days from onset of illness from all over hospitals of Punjab, Pakistan of which 350 were selected simply randomly to test for presence of ZIKV by using "Trioplex Real-Time RT-PCR Assay (Trioplex)". Cohen's kappa coefficient (κ) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were used to assess the degree of concordance between DENV positive results of non-structural protein 1 (NS1) and IgM solid-phase enzyme immunoassay (ELISA). RESULTS: No samples were positive for any ZIKV, DENV or Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) by Trioplex. Among the 350 samples, 26 samples were positive concordant and the degree of concordance between NS1- and IgM-ELISA was 13% and κ coefficient was -0.71 (95% CI -0.79, -0.63). CONCLUSION: At study time, no samples were positive for ZIKV. Strengthening laboratory capacity to confirm arboviruses for Punjab's laboratories is warranted. Trioplex RT-PCR has 100% sensitivity so there are nominal chances of false negative results. Establishing syndromic surveillance for Zika and conducting a sero-surveillance survey for Zika in areas with high human and Aedes mosquito density are recommended in Punjab.

A Review of Asymptomatic and Subclinical Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infections.

The epidemiology of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) since 2012 has been largely characterized by recurrent zoonotic spillover from dromedary camels followed by limited human-to-human transmission, predominantly in health-care settings. The full extent of infection of MERS-CoV is not clear, nor is the extent and/or role of asymptomatic infections in transmission. We conducted a review of molecular and serological investigations through PubMed and EMBASE from September 2012 to November 15, 2018, to measure subclinical or asymptomatic MERS-CoV infection within and outside of health-care settings. We performed retrospective analysis of laboratory-confirmed MERS-CoV infections reported to the World Health Organization to November 27, 2018, to summarize what is known about asymptomatic infections identified through national surveillance systems. We identified 23 studies reporting evidence of MERS-CoV infection outside of health-care settings, mainly of camel workers, with seroprevalence ranges of 0%-67% depending on the study location. We identified 20 studies in health-care settings of health-care worker (HCW) and family contacts, of which 11 documented molecular evidence of MERS-CoV infection among asymptomatic contacts. Since 2012, 298 laboratory-confirmed cases were reported as asymptomatic to the World Health Organization, 164 of whom were HCWs. The potential to transmit MERS-CoV to others has been demonstrated in viral-shedding studies of asymptomatic MERS infections. Our results highlight the possibility for onward transmission of MERS-CoV from asymptomatic individuals. Screening of HCW contacts of patients with confirmed MERS-CoV is currently recommended, but systematic screening of non-HCW contacts outside of health-care facilities should be encouraged.

Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) neutralising antibodies in a high-risk human population, Morocco, November 2017 to January 2018.

BackgroundMiddle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) remains a major concern for global public health. Dromedaries are the source of human zoonotic infection. MERS-CoV is enzootic among dromedaries on the Arabian Peninsula, the Middle East and in Africa. Over 70% of infected dromedaries are found in Africa. However, all known zoonotic cases of MERS have occurred in the Arabian Peninsula with none being reported in Africa.AimWe aimed to investigate serological evidence of MERS-CoV infection in humans living in camel-herding areas in Morocco to provide insights on whether zoonotic transmission is taking place.MethodsWe carried out a cross sectional seroprevalence study from November 2017 through January 2018. We adapted a generic World Health Organization MERS-CoV questionnaire and protocol to assess demographic and risk factors of infection among a presumed high-risk population. ELISA, MERS-CoV spike pseudoparticle neutralisation tests (ppNT) and plaque neutralisation tests (PRNT) were used to assess MERS-CoV seropositivity.ResultsSerum samples were collected from camel slaughterhouse workers (n = 137), camel herders (n = 156) and individuals of the general population without occupational contact with camels but living in camel herding areas (n = 186). MERS-CoV neutralising antibodies with ≥ 90% reduction of plaque numbers were detected in two (1.5%) slaughterhouse workers, none of the camel herders and one individual from the general population (0.5%).ConclusionsThis study provides evidence of zoonotic transmission of MERS-CoV in Morocco in people who have direct or indirect exposure to dromedary camels.

Current and future distribution of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region.

BACKGROUND: Aedes-borne diseases as dengue, zika, chikungunya and yellow fever are an emerging problem worldwide, being transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Lack of up to date information about the distribution of Aedes species hampers surveillance and control. Global databases have been compiled but these did not capture data in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR), and any models built using these datasets fail to identify highly suitable areas where one or both species may occur. The first objective of this study was therefore to update the existing Ae. aegypti (Linnaeus, 1762) and Ae. albopictus (Skuse, 1895) compendia and the second objective was to generate species distribution models targeted to the EMR. A final objective was to engage the WHO points of contacts within the region to provide feedback and hence validate all model outputs. METHODS: The Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus compendia provided by Kraemer et al. (Sci Data 2:150035, 2015; Dryad Digit Repos, 2015) were used as starting points. These datasets were extended with more recent species and disease data. In the next step, these sets were filtered using the Köppen-Geiger classification and the Mahalanobis distance. The occurrence data were supplemented with pseudo-absence data as input to Random Forests. The resulting suitability and maximum risk of establishment maps were combined into hard-classified maps per country for expert validation. RESULTS: The EMR datasets consisted of 1995 presence locations for Ae. aegypti and 2868 presence locations for Ae. albopictus. The resulting suitability maps indicated that there exist areas with high suitability and/or maximum risk of establishment for these disease vectors in contrast with previous model output. Precipitation and host availability, expressed as population density and night-time lights, were the most important variables for Ae. aegypti. Host availability was the most important predictor in case of Ae. albopictus. Internal validation was assessed geographically. External validation showed high agreement between the predicted maps and the experts' extensive knowledge of the terrain. CONCLUSION: Maps of distribution and maximum risk of establishment were created for Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus for the WHO EMR. These region-specific maps highlighted data gaps and these gaps will be filled using targeted monitoring and surveillance. This will increase the awareness and preparedness of the different countries for Aedes borne diseases.

Real-Time Surveillance in Emergencies Using the Early Warning Alert and Response Network.

Humanitarian emergencies often result in population displacement and increase the risk for transmission of communicable diseases. To address the increased risk for outbreaks during humanitarian emergencies, the World Health Organization developed the Early Warning Alert and Response Network (EWARN) for early detection of epidemic-prone diseases. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has worked with the World Health Organization, ministries of health, and other partners to support EWARN through the implementation and evaluation of these systems and the development of standardized guidance. Although protocols have been developed for the implementation and evaluation of EWARN, a need persists for standardized training and additional guidance on supporting these systems remotely when access to affected areas is restricted. Continued collaboration between partners and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for surveillance during emergencies is necessary to strengthen capacity and support global health security.

Closing the knowledge gaps on MERS: three and half years since its detection, what have we learnt and what needs to be done urgently? (Editorial).

The Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-Cov), first detected in 2012, continues to cause health concerns owing to the grave uncertainties that have surrounded the virus since it emerged. Three and half years after the first known human infection was detected, cases continue to be reported every month, over 85% of which have been from Saudi Arabia and other countries in the Arabian Peninsula. Despite its low levels of transmission, the virus presents an uncertain future as a number of critical knowledge gaps on the source and route of transmission have hindered the global response to this emerging infection.

Preparedness for Ebola: Can it transform our current public health system? (Editorial).

The devastating Ebola outbreak that raged in west Africa most of 2014 and 2015 has finally come to an end. The epidemic reached unprecedented levels with far reaching implications for global health security. The epidemic, which started in December 2013, killed more than 11 000 people and infected at least 28 600, more than the total deaths and cases combined reported in the entire history of the disease. In addition, it resulted in an unquantified increase in indirect mortality as well as severe societal consequences.

Cost of Cholera for Households and Health Facilities, Somalia.

INTRODUCTION: Cholera remains a substantial public health challenge in Somalia. Ongoing droughts in the country have caused significant outbreaks which have negatively affected the lives of many individuals and overwhelmed health facilities. We aimed to estimate the costs associated with cholera cases for households and health facilities in Somalia. METHODS: This cost-of-illness study was conducted in five cholera treatment centres in Somalia and 400 patients treated in these facilities. Data collection took place during October and November 2023. Given that a significant portion of the patients were children, we interviewed their caregivers to gather cost data. We interviewed staff at the centres and the patients. The data obtained from the household questionnaire covered direct (medical and non-medical) and indirect (lost wages) costs, while direct costs were estimated for the health facility (personnel salaries, drugs and consumables used to treat a patient, and utility expenses). All costs were calculated in US dollars (USD), using 2023 as the base year for the estimation. RESULTS: The average total cost of a cholera episode for a household was US$ 33.94 (2023 USD), with 50.4% (US$ 17.12) being direct costs and 49.6% (US$ 16.82) indirect costs. The average total cost for a health facility to treat an episode of cholera was US$ 82.65. The overall average cost to households and health facilities was US$ 116.59. The average length of stay for a patient was 3.08 days. In the households, patients aged 41 years and older incurred the highest mean total cost (US$ 73.90) while patients younger than 5 years had the lowest cost (US$ 21.02). Additionally, 61.8% of households had to use family savings to cover the cost of the cholera episode, while 14.5% had to borrow money. Most patients (71.8%) were younger than 16 years- 45.3% were 5 years or younger- and 94.0% had never received a cholera vaccine. CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that preventing one cholera episode in Somalia could avert substantial losses for both the households and cholera treatment centres. The findings shed light on the expenses associated with cholera that extend beyond healthcare, including substantial direct and indirect costs borne by households. Preventing cholera cases could lead to a decrease in this economic burden, consequently our study supports the need for preventive measures.

Estimating the Impact of Vaccination Campaigns on Measles Transmission in Somalia.

Somalia is a complex and fragile setting with a demonstrated potential for disruptive, high-burden measles outbreaks. In response, since 2018, Somalian authorities have partnered with UNICEF and the WHO to implement measles vaccination campaigns across the country. In this paper, we create a Somalia-specific model of measles transmission based on a comprehensive epidemiological dataset including case-based surveillance, vaccine registries, and serological surveys. We use this model to assess the impact of these campaign interventions on Somalian's measles susceptibility, showing, for example, that across the roughly 10 million doses delivered, 1 of every 5 immunized a susceptible child. Finally, we use the model to explore a counter-factual epidemiology without the 2019-2020 campaigns, and we estimate that those interventions prevented over 10,000 deaths.

IHR-PVS National Bridging Workshop for Somalia: An interactive and participatory approach for operationalizing the One Health roadmap.

Background: National Bridging Workshops (NBW) are a tool for reviewing collaboration gaps between line ministries relevant to the One Health framework. Methods: The NBW for Somalia was held on November 11-13, 2023 in Nairobi, Kenya with support from WHO and WOAH. Participants included representatives from the Somali government both national and sub-national (including Ministry of Health; Ministry of Livestock, Forestry and Range; Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation; and Ministry of Environment and Climate Change). Other participants included representatives from non-governmental organizations, academia and the quadripartite. Structured sessions guided participants through a step-by-step process, starting from identifying gaps to collectively developing solutions. The design of these sessions aimed to foster active engagement and collaboration with the outcomes of each session contributing to the subsequent one. Results: A total of 60 participants partook in the exercise, representing human health (35%), animal health (27%), agriculture (13%), environmental health (7%) and other relevant sectors (18%). Eighty-three percent of participants represented the national level and 17% the sub-national level. The collaborative effort yielded a joint roadmap comprising 36 activities and 11 objectives. Priority objectives included: development of national joint surveillance systems for selected One Health threats (41/47 votes, or 87% of the total votes); establishment of a high-level ministerial system to govern and coordinate One Health activities (30/47; 64%); and establishment of emergency funding structures for priority zoonotic diseases along with development of a 5-year national investment plan for One Health (27/47; 57%). A total of 94% of activities required low or moderate cost to be implemented, and 90% of activities were identified to have a likely high impact on multisectoral collaboration. The timeline for implementing the activities is projected to span one to two years. Conclusion: The workshop promoted high-level engagement, national ownership, and leadership in addressing health threats at the human-animal-environment interface. The resulting co-created roadmap will be integrated into the National Action Plan for Health Security, supporting ongoing One Health efforts in Somalia.

COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptance and Hesitancy in Health Care Workers in Somalia: Findings from a Fragile Country with No Previous Experience of Mass Adult Immunization.

Coverage of COVID-19 vaccines in Somalia remains low, including among health workers. This study aimed to identify factors associated with COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy among health workers. In this cross-sectional, questionnaire-based study, 1476 health workers in government and private health facilities in Somalia's federal member states were interviewed face-to-face about their perceptions of and attitudes toward COVID-19 vaccines. Both vaccinated and unvaccinated health workers were included. Factors associated with vaccine hesitancy were evaluated in a multivariable logistic regression analysis. Participants were evenly distributed by sex, and their mean age was 34 (standard deviation 11.8) years. The overall prevalence of vaccine hesitancy was 38.2%. Of the 564 unvaccinated participants, 39.0% remained hesitant. The factors associated with vaccine hesitancy were: being a primary health care worker (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 2.37, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.15-4.90) or a nurse (aOR = 2.12, 95% CI: 1.05-4.25); having a master's degree (aOR = 5.32, 95% CI: 1.28-22.23); living in Hirshabelle State (aOR = 3.23, 95% CI: 1.68-6.20); not having had COVID-19 (aOR = 1.96, 95% CI: 1.15-3.32); and having received no training on COVID-19 (aOR = 1.54, 95% CI: 1.02-2.32). Despite the availability of COVID-19 vaccines in Somalia, a large proportion of unvaccinated health workers remain hesitant about being vaccinated, potentially influencing the public's willingness to take the vaccine. This study provides vital information to inform future vaccination strategies to achieve optimal coverage.

Prevalence of mental disorders and psychological trauma among conflict- affected population in Somalia: a cross-sectional study.

Background: Despite the longstanding psychosocial impact of the interactable conflict in Somalia for the last 30 years, there is lack of epidemiological studies of mental health conditions, especially at the population level. Objectives: The aim of this study is to fill the epidemiological gap and provide population based data on mental health conditions in the South-Central region of Somalia. The specific objectives were: (1) To determine the epidemiological patterns of mental disorders in three sites; Baidoa, Dolow and Kismayo, (2) Understand the socio-demographic characteristics associated with mental health conditions in the study sites, and (3) To assess the correlates between psychological trauma and the mental wellbeing of the population. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study of 713 respondents recruited from the three sites namely Dolow, Baidoa and Kismayo. Data on sociodemographic characteristics and mental disorders were collected using the MINI and sociodemographic questionnaire. Basic descriptive statistics were used to summarize sociodemographic characteristics. Univariable and multivariable logistic regressions were used to examine factors associated with common mental disorders. Statistical significance was considered at a value of p <0.05. Results: Participants' mean age was 32.6 (±10.7) years. More than half (58.5%) of the respondents were male. The overall prevalence of common mental disorders was 557 (78.1%) with panic disorder (39.3%), generalized anxiety disorders (34.9%), major depressive episode current (32.1) and PTSD (29.9%). According to the multivariable logistic regression analysis, being male AOR = 1.74 (95%CI = 1.25, 2.42), having a family size of more than 10 members AOR =1.37 (95% CI = 1.00, 1.89), being unemployed AOR = 1.90 (95%CI = 1.18, 3.06), experienced starvation AOR =3.46 (95%CI = 2.23, 5.37), khat use AOR = 5.87 (955 CI, 1.75-19.65), were identified as predicting factors for the common mental disorders among the study participants. Conclusion: There is a high prevalence of mental disorders with anxiety disorders being the commonest. Findings reflect earlier studies that showed higher rates in conflict and post-conflict settings. It also aligns with past studies in Somalia. As such, there is an urgent need to integrate mental health and psychosocial support within the primary healthcare and other service sectors such as education considering the vast majority of the population are young.

The importance of community health workers as frontline responders during the COVID-19 pandemic, Somalia, 2020-2021.

Introduction: We examined the contribution of community health workers as frontline responders for the community-based surveillance in Somalia during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic for detection of COVID-19 cases and identification of contacts. Methods: We retrieved COVID-19 surveillance data from 16 March 2020 to 31 March 2021 from the health ministry's central database. These data were collected through community health workers, health facilities or at the points of entry. We compared the number of suspected COVID-19 cases detected by the three surveillance systems and the proportion that tested positive using the chi-squared test. We used logistic regression analysis to assess association between COVID-19 infection and selected variables. Results: During the study period, 154,004 suspected cases of COVID-19 were detected and tested, of which 10,182 (6.6%) were positive. Of the notified cases, 32.7% were identified through the community-based surveillance system, 54.0% through the facility-based surveillance system, and 13.2% at points of entry. The positivity rate of cases detected by the community health workers was higher than that among those detected at health facilities (8.6% versus 6.4%; p < 0.001). The community health workers also identified more contacts than those identified through the facility-based surveillance (13,279 versus 1,937; p < 0.001). The odds of COVID-19 detection generally increased by age. Community-based surveillance and health facility-based surveillance had similar odds of detecting COVID-19 cases compared with the points-of-entry surveillance (aOR: 7.0 (95% CI: 6.4, 7.8) and aOR: 7.5 (95% CI: 6.8, 8.3), respectively). Conclusion: The community health workers proved their value as first responders to COVID-19. They can be effective in countries with weak health systems for targeted community surveillance in rural and remote areas which are not covered by the facility-based surveillance system.

Value of Verbal Autopsy in a Fragile Setting: Reported versus Estimated Community Deaths Associated with COVID-19, Banadir, Somalia.

BACKGROUND: Accurate mortality data associated with infectious diseases such as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are often unavailable in countries with fragile health systems such as Somalia. We compared officially reported COVID-19 deaths in Somalia with COVID-19 deaths estimated using verbal autopsy. METHODS: We interviewed relatives of deceased persons to collect information on symptoms, cause, and place of death. We compared these data with officially reported data and estimated the positive and negative predictive values of verbal autopsy. RESULTS: We identified 530 deaths during March-October 2020. We classified 176 (33.2%) as probable COVID-19 deaths. Most deaths (78.5%; 416/530) occurred at home and 144 (34.6%) of these were attributed to COVID-19. The positive predictive value of verbal autopsy was lower for home deaths (22.3%; 95% CI: 15.7-30.1%) than for hospital deaths (32.3%; 95% CI: 16.7-51.4%). The negative predictive value was higher: 97.8% (95% CI: 95.0-99.3%) for home deaths and 98.4% (95% CI: 91.5-100%) for hospital deaths. Conclusions Verbal autopsy has acceptable predictive value to estimate COVID-19 deaths where disease prevalence is high and can provide data on the COVID-19 burden in countries with low testing and weak mortality surveillance where home deaths may be missed.