Evaluating the effect of conservation motivations on residential water demand.

Utilities and water suppliers in the southwestern United States have used education and conservation programs over the past two decades in an attempt to ameliorate the pressures of increasing water scarcity. This paper builds on a long history of water demand and environmental psychology literature and attempts to answer a simple question: do households primarily motivated by environmental and social (E&S) considerations consume water differently than households motivated primarily by cost and convenience (C&C)? We find that E&S consumers use less water than C&C consumers on average. We also find that there is no statistical difference between E&S and C&C consumers in their consumption responses to changing prices, temperature, and precipitation. This implies that targeting future conservation efforts to self-reported consumer groups may not improve policy effectiveness.

Impact of randomly assigned "pay-as-you-go" liquefied petroleum gas prices on energy use for cooking: Experimental pilot evidence from rural Rwanda.

The disease burden related to air pollution from traditional solid-fuel cooking practices in low- and middle-income countries impacts millions of people globally. Although the use of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) fuel for cooking can meaningfully reduce household air pollution concentrations, major barriers, including affordability and accessibility, have limited widespread adoption. Using a randomized controlled trial, our objective was to evaluate the association between the cost and use of LPG among 23 rural Rwandan households. We provided a 2-burner LPG stove with accessories and incorporated a "pay-as-you-go" (PAYG) LPG service model that included fuel delivery. PAYG services remove the large up-front cost of cylinder refills by integrating "smart meter" technology that allows participants to pay in incremental amounts, as needed. We assigned three randomized discounted prices for LPG to each household at ~4-week intervals over a 12-week period. We modeled the relationship between randomized PAYG LPG price and use (standardized to monthly periods), analyzing effect modification by relative household wealth. A 1000 Rwandan Franc (about 1 USD at the time of the study) increase in LPG price/kg was associated with a 4.1 kg/month decrease in use (95% confidence interval [CI]: -6.7, -1.6; n=69 observations). Wealth modified this association; we observed a 9.7 kg/month reduction (95% CI: -14.8, -4.5) among wealthier households and a 2.5 kg/month reduction (95% CI: -5.3, 0.3) among lower-wealth households (p-interaction=0.01). The difference in price sensitivity was driven by higher LPG use among wealthier households at more heavily discounted prices; from an 80% to 10% discount, wealthy households used 17.5 to 5.3 kg/month and less wealthy households used 6.2 to 3.1 kg/month. Our pilot-level experimental evidence of PAYG LPG in a rural low-resource setting suggests that further exploration of subsidized pricing varied by household wealth is needed to ensure future policy initiatives can achieve targets without exacerbating inequities.

Assessment of vulnerability to water shortage in semi-arid river basins: The value of demand reduction and storage capacity.

Interest in securing reliable water supplies has increased due to climate change and rapid population growth. This challenge is significant in growing areas with limited water supplies. To meet water demands, water managers are considering new storage infrastructure to increase the reliability of water supplies while also identifying opportunities to reduce water use per person. Although these strategies change water consumption patterns, their success at reducing shortages across space and time for different climate change scenarios remains unclear. In this paper, population- and climate-dependent future water supply and demand models are developed and integrated into a water allocation model calibrated for the South Platte River Basin of Colorado. Eight future climate scenarios are simulated using four statistically downscaled models from the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). Lastly, findings from the water allocation model simulations are generalized beyond the study area using a novel approach by introducing dimensionless indices to characterize water shortage and basin conditions. Results reveal a threshold ratio of total storage capacity to mean water supply with a value of 0.64 above which additional storage has no effect on total water shortages. This threshold communicates the limitation of building storage infrastructure as a strategy to adapt to decreasing average water supplies for basins considering increasing storage capacity. However, basins with low current capacity are likely to fall below the threshold and could invest in reservoirs to mitigate future shortages.

Counterfactual scenarios reveal historical impact of cropland management on soil organic carbon stocks in the United States.

Natural climate solutions provide opportunities to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and the United States is among a growing number of countries promoting storage of carbon in agricultural soils as part of the climate solution. Historical patterns of soil organic carbon (SOC) stock changes provide context about mitigation potential. Therefore, our objective was to quantify the influence of climate-smart soil practices on SOC stock changes in the top 30 cm of mineral soils for croplands in the United States using the DayCent Ecosystem Model. We estimated that SOC stocks increased annually in US croplands from 1995 to 2015, with the largest increase in 1996 of 16.6 Mt C (95% confidence interval ranging from 6.1 to 28.2 Mt CO2 eq.) and the lowest increase in 2015 of 10.6 Mt C (95% confidence interval ranging from - 1.8 to 22.2 Mt C). Most climate-smart soil practices contributed to increases in SOC stocks except for winter cover crops, which had a negligible impact due to a relatively small area with cover crop adoption. Our study suggests that there is potential for enhancing C sinks in cropland soils of the United States although some of the potential has been realized due to past adoption of climate-smart soil practices.

Changing climate, changing minds? The effects of natural disasters on public perceptions of climate change.

The frequency and intensity of natural disasters such as hurricanes, wildfires, and floods are predicted to change as greenhouse gas concentrations increase. These disasters may represent sources of information for individuals as they update their beliefs related to climate change. Using a dataset that includes climate beliefs of respondents, we examine the effect of natural disasters on climate change beliefs and find that hurricanes significantly increase the probability that survey respondents from a given county believe that climate change is occurring and that it is human caused. We find that past experience with certain types of natural disasters (e.g., hurricanes) impacts beliefs regarding whether climate change is occurring and if it is human caused. The research contributes to the literature evaluating climate change attitudes by using spatially disaggregate information on climate change beliefs and exposure to a set of natural disasters over time. Characterizing beliefs and attitudes toward climate change and related policies is important since these beliefs are a determinant of individual adaptation and support for policies related to reducing carbon emissions.

A Multidisciplinary Research Framework on Green Schools: Infrastructure, Social Environment, Occupant Health, and Performance.

BACKGROUND: Sustainable school buildings hold much promise to reducing operating costs, improve occupant well-being and, ultimately, teacher and student performance. However, there is a scarcity of evidence on the effects of sustainable school buildings on health and performance indicators. We sought to create a framework for a multidisciplinary research agenda that links school facilities, health, and educational outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a nonsystematic review of peer review publications, government documents, organizational documents, and school climate measurement instruments. RESULTS: We found that studies on the impact of physical environmental factors (air, lighting, and thermal comfort) on health and occupant performance are largely independent of research on the social climate. The current literature precludes the formation of understanding the causal relation among school facilities, social climate, occupant health, and occupant performance. CONCLUSIONS: Given the average age of current school facilities in the United States, construction of new school facilities or retrofits of older facilities will be a major infrastructure investment for many municipalities over the next several decades. Multidisciplinary research that seeks to understand the impact of sustainable design on the health and performance of occupants will need to include both an environmental science and social science perspective to inform best practices and quantification of benefits that go beyond general measures of costs savings from energy efficiencies.