Biodiversity increases and decreases ecosystem stability.

Losses and gains in species diversity affect ecological stability1-7 and the sustainability of ecosystem functions and services8-13. Experiments and models have revealed positive, negative and no effects of diversity on individual components of stability, such as temporal variability, resistance and resilience2,3,6,11,12,14. How these stability components covary remains poorly understood15. Similarly, the effects of diversity on overall ecosystem stability16, which is conceptually akin to ecosystem multifunctionality17,18, remain unknown. Here we studied communities of aquatic ciliates to understand how temporal variability, resistance and overall ecosystem stability responded to diversity (that is, species richness) in a large experiment involving 690 micro-ecosystems sampled 19 times over 40 days, resulting in 12,939 samplings. Species richness increased temporal stability but decreased resistance to warming. Thus, two stability components covaried negatively along the diversity gradient. Previous biodiversity manipulation studies rarely reported such negative covariation despite general predictions of the negative effects of diversity on individual stability components3. Integrating our findings with the ecosystem multifunctionality concept revealed hump- and U-shaped effects of diversity on overall ecosystem stability. That is, biodiversity can increase overall ecosystem stability when biodiversity is low, and decrease it when biodiversity is high, or the opposite with a U-shaped relationship. The effects of diversity on ecosystem multifunctionality would also be hump- or U-shaped if diversity had positive effects on some functions and negative effects on others. Linking the ecosystem multifunctionality concept and ecosystem stability can transform the perceived effects of diversity on ecological stability and may help to translate this science into policy-relevant information.

The ecological forecast horizon, and examples of its uses and determinants.

Forecasts of ecological dynamics in changing environments are increasingly important, and are available for a plethora of variables, such as species abundance and distribution, community structure and ecosystem processes. There is, however, a general absence of knowledge about how far into the future, or other dimensions (space, temperature, phylogenetic distance), useful ecological forecasts can be made, and about how features of ecological systems relate to these distances. The ecological forecast horizon is the dimensional distance for which useful forecasts can be made. Five case studies illustrate the influence of various sources of uncertainty (e.g. parameter uncertainty, environmental variation, demographic stochasticity and evolution), level of ecological organisation (e.g. population or community), and organismal properties (e.g. body size or number of trophic links) on temporal, spatial and phylogenetic forecast horizons. Insights from these case studies demonstrate that the ecological forecast horizon is a flexible and powerful tool for researching and communicating ecological predictability. It also has potential for motivating and guiding agenda setting for ecological forecasting research and development.

Complex transient dynamics of stage-structured populations in response to environmental changes.

Stage structures of populations can have a profound influence on their dynamics. However, not much is known about the transient dynamics that follow a disturbance in such systems. Here we combined chemostat experiments with dynamical modeling to study the response of the phytoplankton species Chlorella vulgaris to press perturbations. From an initially stable steady state, we altered either the concentration or dilution rate of a growth-limiting resource. This disturbance induced a complex transient response-characterized by the possible onset of oscillations-before population numbers relaxed to a new steady state. Thus, cell numbers could initially change in the opposite direction of the long-term change. We present quantitative indexes to characterize the transients and to show that the dynamic response is dependent on the degree of synchronization among life stages, which itself depends on the state of the population before perturbation. That is, we show how identical future steady states can be approached via different transients depending on the initial population structure. Our experimental results are supported by a size-structured model that accounts for interplay between cell-cycle and population-level processes and that includes resource-dependent variability in cell size. Our results should be relevant to other populations with a stage structure including organisms of higher order.

Cycles, phase synchronization, and entrainment in single-species phytoplankton populations.

Complex dynamics, such as population cycles, can arise when the individual members of a population become synchronized. However, it is an open question how readily and through which mechanisms synchronization-driven cycles can occur in unstructured microbial populations. In experimental chemostats we studied large populations (>10(9) cells) of unicellular phytoplankton that displayed regular, inducible and reproducible population oscillations. Measurements of cell size distributions revealed that progression through the mitotic cycle was synchronized with the population cycles. A mathematical model that accounts for both the cell cycle and population-level processes suggests that cycles occur because individual cells become synchronized by interacting with one another through their common nutrient pool. An external perturbation by direct manipulation of the nutrient availability resulted in phase resetting, unmasking intrinsic oscillations and producing a transient collective cycle as the individuals gradually drift apart. Our study indicates a strong connection between complex within-cell processes and population dynamics, where synchronized cell cycles of unicellular phytoplankton provide sufficient population structure to cause small-amplitude oscillations at the population level.

Enhanced Moran effect by spatial variation in environmental autocorrelation.

Spatial correlations in environmental stochasticity can synchronize populations over wide areas, a phenomenon known as the Moran effect. The Moran effect has been confirmed in field, laboratory and theoretical investigations. Little is known, however, about the Moran effect in a common ecological case, when environmental variation is temporally autocorrelated and this autocorrelation varies spatially. Here we perform chemostat experiments to investigate the temporal response of independent phytoplankton populations to autocorrelated stochastic forcing. In contrast to naive expectation, two populations without direct coupling can be more strongly correlated than their environmental forcing (enhanced Moran effect), if the stochastic variations differ in their autocorrelation. Our experimental findings are in agreement with numerical simulations and analytical calculations. The enhanced Moran effect is robust to changes in population dynamics, noise spectra and different measures of correlation-suggesting that noise-induced synchrony may play a larger role for population dynamics than previously thought.