A proposed simplified definition of metabolic syndrome in children and adolescents: a global perspective.

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is becoming prevalent in the pediatric population. The existing pediatric MetS definitions (e.g., the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) definition and the modified National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) definition) involve complex cut-offs, precluding fast risk assessment in clinical practice.We proposed a simplified definition for assessing MetS risk in youths aged 6-17 years, and compared its performance with two existing widely used pediatric definitions (the IDF definition, and the NCEP definition) in 10 pediatric populations from 9 countries globally (n = 19,426) using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses. In general, the total MetS prevalence of 6.2% based on the simplified definition was roughly halfway between that of 4.2% and 7.7% estimated from the IDF and NCEP definitions, respectively. The ROC curve analyses showed a good agreement between the simplified definition and two existing definitions: the total area under the curve (95% confidence interval) of the proposed simplified definition for identifying MetS risk achieved 0.91 (0.89-0.92) and 0.79 (0.78-0.81) when using the IDF or NCEP definition as the gold standard, respectively.The proposed simplified definition may be useful for pediatricians to quickly identify MetS risk and cardiometabolic risk factors (CMRFs) clustering in clinical practice, and allow direct comparison of pediatric MetS prevalence across different populations, facilitating consistent pediatric MetS risk monitoring and the development of evidence-based pediatric MetS prevention strategies globally.

Establishing international optimal cut-offs of waist-to-height ratio for predicting cardiometabolic risk in children and adolescents aged 6-18 years.

BACKGROUND: Waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) has been proposed as a simple and effective screening tool for assessing central obesity and cardiometabolic risk in both adult and pediatric populations. However, evidence suggests that the use of a uniform WHtR cut-off of 0.50 may not be universally optimal for pediatric populations globally. We aimed to determine the optimal cut-offs of WHtR in children and adolescents with increased cardiometabolic risk across different countries worldwide. METHODS: We used ten population-based cross-sectional data on 24,605 children and adolescents aged 6-18 years from Brazil, China, Greece, Iran, Italy, Korea, South Africa, Spain, the UK, and the USA for establishing optimal WHtR cut-offs. We performed an external independent test (9,619 children and adolescents aged 6-18 years who came from other six countries) to validate the optimal WHtR cut-offs based on the predicting performance for at least two or three cardiometabolic risk factors. RESULTS: Based on receiver operator characteristic curve analyses of various WHtR cut-offs to discriminate those with ≥ 2 cardiometabolic risk factors, the relatively optimal percentile cut-offs of WHtR in the normal weight subsample population in each country did not always coincide with a single fixed percentile, but varied from the 75th to 95th percentiles across the ten countries. However, these relatively optimal percentile values tended to cluster irrespective of sex, metabolic syndrome (MetS) criteria used, and WC measurement position. In general, using ≥ 2 cardiometabolic risk factors as the predictive outcome, the relatively optimal WHtR cut-off was around 0.50 in European and the US youths but was lower, around 0.46, in Asian, African, and South American youths. Secondary analyses that directly tested WHtR values ranging from 0.42 to 0.56 at 0.01 increments largely confirmed the results of the main analyses. In addition, the proposed cut-offs of 0.50 and 0.46 for two specific pediatric populations, respectively, showed a good performance in predicting ≥ 2 or ≥ 3 cardiometabolic risk factors in external independent test populations from six countries (Brazil, China, Germany, Italy, Korea, and the USA). CONCLUSIONS: The proposed international WHtR cut-offs are easy and useful to identify central obesity and cardiometabolic risk in children and adolescents globally, thus allowing international comparison across populations.

MicroRNAs Associated with Chronic Kidney Disease in the General Population and High-Risk Subgroups-A Systematic Review.

The potential utility of microRNAs (miRNAs) as diagnostic or prognostic biomarkers, as well as therapeutic targets, for chronic kidney disease (CKD) has been advocated. However, studies evaluating the expression profile of the same miRNA signatures in CKD report contradictory findings. This review aimed to characterize miRNAs associated with CKD and/or measures of kidney function and kidney damage in the general population, and also in high-risk subgroups, including people with hypertension (HTN), diabetes mellitus (DM) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. Medline via PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and EBSCOhost databases were searched to identify relevant studies published in English or French languages on or before 30 September 2022. A total of 75 studies fulfilled the eligibility criteria: CKD (n = 18), diabetic kidney disease (DKD) (n = 51) and HTN-associated CKD (n = 6), with no study reporting on miRNA profiles in people with HIV-associated nephropathy. In individuals with CKD, miR-126 and miR-223 were consistently downregulated, whilst in DKD, miR-21 and miR-29b were consistently upregulated and miR-30e and let-7a were consistently downregulated in at least three studies. These findings suggest that these miRNAs may be involved in the pathogenesis of CKD and therefore invites further research to explore their clinical utility for CKD prevention and control.

Two novel microRNAs and their association with absolute blood pressure parameters in an urban South African community.

MicroRNAs are important in development of disease, and description of novel microRNAs adds to the pool of microRNAs that can be targeted for diagnostic and therapeutic purposes in disease. Herein, we aimed to describe novel microRNAs in a normotensive and hypertensive African population and relate their expression to blood pressure parameters and hypertension status. Previous work using next-generation sequencing showed differential expression of two novel microRNAs in the blood of normotensives and hypertensives. Herein, we have investigated these novel microRNAs by quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction in a cohort of 881 participants in this study. The relationship between the novel microRNAs and systolic and diastolic blood pressure as well as mean arterial pressure was also investigated. Age and sex-adjusted Spearman's correlations were used to assess the relationship between microRNAs and cardiovascular risk profile variables whilst multivariable logistic regression models were used to assess the association of microRNAs with screen-detected and known hypertension. The novel microRNAs (miR-novel-chr1_36178 and miR-novel-chr15_18383) were significantly dysregulated by hypertension status. The expression of miR-novel-chr1_36178 differed according to sex, correlated with mean arterial pressure and systolic and diastolic blood pressure at higher levels of expression and was associated with screen-detected hypertension. The association of miR-novel-chr1_36178 expression with mean arterial pressure and systolic and diastolic blood pressure, as well as its dysregulation according to hypertension status suggests its possible utility as a biomarker target for hypertension diagnosis and/or therapeutics. Furthermore, its association with screen detected hypertension and dose-response relationship with blood pressure suggests it may be used to identify and monitor individuals at risk of hypertension.

The agreement between fasting glucose and markers of chronic glycaemic exposure in individuals with and without chronic kidney disease: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: To assess whether the agreement between fasting glucose and glycated proteins is affected by chronic kidney disease (CKD) in a community-based sample of 1621 mixed-ancestry South Africans. METHODS: CKD was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate < 60 ml/min/1.73 m2. Fasting plasma glucose and haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) concentrations were measured by enzymatic hexokinase method and high-performance liquid chromatography, respectively, with fructosamine and glycated albumin measured by immunoturbidimetry and enzymatic method, respectively. RESULTS: Of those with CKD (n = 96), 79, 16 and 5% where in stages 3, 4 and 5, respectively. Those with CKD had higher levels of HbA1c (6.2 vs. 5.7%; p < 0.0001), glycated albumin (15.0 vs. 13.0%; p < 0.0001) and fructosamine levels (269.7 vs. 236.4 µmol/l; p < 0.0001), compared to those without CKD. Higher fasting glucose levels were associated with higher HbA1c, glycated albumin and fructosamine, independent of age, gender, and CKD. However, the association with HbA1c and glycated albumin differed by CKD status, at the upper concentrations of the respective markers (interaction term for both: p ≤ 0.095). CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that although HbA1c and glycated albumin perform acceptably under conditions of normoglycaemia, these markers correlate less well with blood glucose levels in people with CKD who are not on dialysis.

An African perspective on the genetic risk of chronic kidney disease: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Individuals of African ethnicity are disproportionately burdened with chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, despite the genetic link, genetic association studies of CKD in African populations are lacking. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review to critically evaluate the existing studies on CKD genetic risk inferred by polymorphism(s) amongst African populations in Africa. The study followed the HuGE handbook and PRISMA protocol. We included studies reporting on the association of polymorphism(s) with prevalent CKD, end-stage renaldisease (ESRD) or CKD-associated traits. Given the very few studies investigating the effects of the same single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on CKD risk, a narrative synthesis of the evidence was conducted. RESULTS: A total of 30 polymorphisms in 11 genes were investigated for their association with CKD, ESRD or related traits, all using the candidate-gene approach. Of all the included genes, MYH9, AT1R and MTHFR genes failed to predict CKD or related traits, while variants in the APOL1, apoE, eNOS, XPD, XRCC1, renalase, ADIPOQ, and CCR2 genes were associated with CKD or other related traits. Two SNPs (rs73885319, rs60910145) and haplotypes (G-A-G; G1; G2) of the apolipoprotein L1 (APOL1) gene were studied in more than one population group, with similar association with prevalent CKD observed. The remaining polymorphisms were investigated in single studies. CONCLUSION: According to this systematic review, there is currently insufficient evidence of the specific polymorphisms that poses African populations at an increased risk of CKD. Large-scale genetic studies are warranted to better understand susceptibility polymorphisms, specific to African populations.

The relationship between immunogenic red blood cell antigens and Human Immunodeficiency Virus infection.

INTRODUCTION: Evidence suggests that red cell antigens may act as receptors for viruses and bacteria and therefore could be associated with HIV infection. Previous studies have been controversial and therefore the aim of this exploratory study was to analyse the expression of immunogenic red cell antigens in HIV-seropositive individuals and to compare the results to negative donors from South Africa. METHODS: The expression of ABO, Rh, Kell and Duffy antigens from 119 HIV-seropositive patients was compared to 317 HIV-seronegative blood donors. Nucleic acid amplification testing and PCR were used to determine the HIV status and the ID-Gel Card Technology was used to determine the blood group antigen profile. RESULTS: There was no significant difference in the expression of A, B, AB, Duffy or Kel antigens between the two groups but significantly lower numbers of HIV+ individuals were O Rh Negative (p = ,0.0001). Analysis of those with a Duffy null phenotype revealed a significantly higher incidence of blood type A RH1-Positive, Dce/R0r and B RH1-Positive, DcEe/R2r within the HIV-seropositive group (p = < 0.05). None of the HIV-seropositive individuals were O RH1-Negative, dce/rr. CONCLUSION: In conclusion these initial findings have demonstrated a decreased incidence of blood type O Rh1-negative in HIV + individuals which suggests that red blood cell antigens may play an important role in susceptibility to HIV infection. The relationship between red cell antigens and HIV infection however remains complex and therefore larger studies are required to confirm these results.

APOL1 genetic variants, chronic kidney diseases and hypertension in mixed ancestry South Africans.

BACKGROUND: The frequencies of apolipoprotein L1 (APOL1) variants and their associations with chronic kidney disease (CKD) vary substantially in populations from Africa. Moreover, available studies have used very small sample sizes to provide reliable estimates of the frequencies of these variants in the general population. We determined the frequency of the two APOL1 risk alleles (G1 and G2) and investigated their association with renal traits in a relatively large sample of mixed-ancestry South Africans. APOL1 risk variants (G1: rs60910145 and rs73885319; G2: rs71785313) were genotyped in 859 African mixed ancestry individuals using allele-specific TaqMan technology. Glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was estimated using the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) and Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equations. RESULTS: The frequencies of rs73885319, rs60910145 and rs71785313 risk alleles were respectively, 3.6%, 3.4%, and 5.8%, resulting in a 1.01% frequency of the APOL1 two-risk allele (G1:G1 or G1:G2 or G2:G2). The presence of the two-risk allele increased serum creatinine with a corresponding reduction in eGFR (either MDRD or CKD-EPI based). In dominant and log-additive genetic models, significant associations were found between rs71785313 and systolic blood pressure (both p ≤ 0.025), with a significant statistical interaction by diabetes status, p = 0.022, reflecting a negative non-significant effect in nondiabetics and a positive effect in diabetics. CONCLUSIONS: Although the APOL1 variants are not common in the mixed ancestry population of South Africa, the study does provide an indication that APOL1 variants may play a role in conferring an increased risk for renal and cardiovascular risk in this population.

Validation of two prediction models of undiagnosed chronic kidney disease in mixed-ancestry South Africans.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a global challenge. Risk models to predict prevalent undiagnosed CKD have been published. However, none was developed or validated in an African population. We validated the Korean and Thai CKD prediction model in mixed-ancestry South Africans. METHODS: Discrimination and calibration were assessed overall and by major subgroups. CKD was defined as 'estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 ml/min/1.73 m(2)' or 'any nephropathy'. eGFR was based on the 4-variable Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) formula. RESULTS: In all 902 participants (mean age 55 years) included, 259 (28.7 %) had prevalent undiagnosed CKD. C-statistics were 0.76 (95 % CI: 0.73-0.79) for 'eGFR <60 ml/min/1.73 m(2)' and 0.81 (0.78-0.84) for 'any nephropathy' for the Korean model; corresponding values for the Thai model were 0.80 (0.77-0.83) and 0.77 (0.74-0.81). Discrimination was better in men, older and normal weight individuals. The model underestimated CKD risk by 10 % to 13 % for the Thai and 9 % to 93 % for the Korean model. Intercept adjustment significantly improved the calibration with an expected/observed risk of 'eGFR <60 ml/min/1.73 m(2)' and 'any nephropathy' respectively of 0.98 (0.87-1.10) and 0.97 (0.86-1.09) for the Thai model; but resulted in an underestimation by 24 % with the Korean model. Results were broadly similar for CKD derived from the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) formula. CONCLUSION: Asian prevalent CKD risk models had acceptable performances in mixed-ancestry South Africans. This highlights the potential importance of using existing models for risk CKD screening in developing countries.

Risk predictive modelling for diabetes and cardiovascular disease.

Absolute risk models or clinical prediction models have been incorporated in guidelines, and are increasingly advocated as tools to assist risk stratification and guide prevention and treatments decisions relating to common health conditions such as cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes mellitus. We have reviewed the historical development and principles of prediction research, including their statistical underpinning, as well as implications for routine practice, with a focus on predictive modelling for CVD and diabetes. Predictive modelling for CVD risk, which has developed over the last five decades, has been largely influenced by the Framingham Heart Study investigators, while it is only ∼20 years ago that similar efforts were started in the field of diabetes. Identification of predictive factors is an important preliminary step which provides the knowledge base on potential predictors to be tested for inclusion during the statistical derivation of the final model. The derived models must then be tested both on the development sample (internal validation) and on other populations in different settings (external validation). Updating procedures (e.g. recalibration) should be used to improve the performance of models that fail the tests of external validation. Ultimately, the effect of introducing validated models in routine practice on the process and outcomes of care as well as its cost-effectiveness should be tested in impact studies before wide dissemination of models beyond the research context. Several predictions models have been developed for CVD or diabetes, but very few have been externally validated or tested in impact studies, and their comparative performance has yet to be fully assessed. A shift of focus from developing new CVD or diabetes prediction models to validating the existing ones will improve their adoption in routine practice.

Proliferator-activated receptor gamma Pro12Ala interacts with the insulin receptor substrate 1 Gly972Arg and increase the risk of insulin resistance and diabetes in the mixed ancestry population from South Africa.

BACKGROUND: The peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor gamma (PPARG), Pro12Ala and the insulin receptor substrate (IRS1), Gly972Arg confer opposite effects on insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). We investigated the independent and joint effects of PPARG Pro12Ala and IRS1 Gly972Arg on markers of insulin resistance and T2DM in an African population with elevated risk of T2DM. In all 787 (176 men) mixed-ancestry adults from the Bellville-South community in Cape Town were genotyped for PPARG Pro12Ala and IRS1 Gly972Arg by two independent laboratories. Glucose tolerance status and insulin resistance/sensitivity were assessed. RESULTS: Genotype frequencies were 10.4% (PPARG Pro12Ala) and 7.7% (IRS1 Gly972Arg). Alone, none of the polymorphisms predicted prevalent T2DM, but in regression models containing both alleles and their interaction term, PPARG Pro12 conferred a 64% higher risk of T2DM. Furthermore PPARG Pro12 was positively associated in adjusted linear regressions with increased 2-hour post-load insulin in non-diabetic but not in diabetic participants. CONCLUSION: The PPARG Pro12 is associated with insulin resistance and this polymorphism interacts with IRS1 Gly972Arg, to increase the risk of T2DM in the mixed-ancestry population of South Africa. Our findings require replication in a larger study before any generalisation and possible application for risk stratification.

Deterioration, improvement of kidney function over time and determinants in the Cape Town Bellville South cohort.

AIM: The aim of the present study was to assess the trajectories of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and determinants of change during a 3-year period in free-living mixed-ancestry South Africans. METHODS: In all 320 (78.1% women) adults, aged 56.2 years, from Cape Town were examined in 2008 and 2011. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was based on the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease model; and staging of eGFR used the National Kidney Foundation's classification. RESULTS: Mean eGFR (mL/min per 1.73 m2) was 68.6 at baseline and eGFR stages were: > 90 (9.4%), 60-90 (58.7%), 30-60 (28.1%) and < 30 (0.9%). eGFR increased by 8 mL/min during follow-up, reflecting variable trajectories by baseline eGFR stages, sex, hypertension and glucose tolerance (all P-interaction ≤ 0.012). Movements across eGFR stages during follow-up favoured improvement in 113 participants (35.3%), and worsened in 23 (7.2%). In adjusted multinomial logistic regressions, men had a 72% (43-86%) lower chance of improvement, while each mmHg higher systolic blood pressure conferred a 7% (3-11%) risk of deterioration. Equivalent for each 1% HbA1c was 30% (8-56%). Participants with glucose intolerance had 102% (3-297%) higher chances of improvement than diabetics. CONCLUSION: Variable trajectories of eGFR with time were observed in this cohort, reflecting the effects of modifiable risk factors such as hypertension and dysglycaemia.

The effect of cigarette smoking on the oral microbiota in a South African population using subgingival plaque samples.

Disturbances in the oral microbiota may be due to several mechanisms and factors, such as smoking. An imbalance in oral bacteria may result in changes to the innate immune system and the development of periodontal disease. This study aimed to investigate the distribution of oral microbiota in smokers and non-smokers in a South African population using subgingival plaque samples. From the 128 recruited participants, 57 were identified as smokers (serum cotinine: >15 ng/ml). Analysis of 16S rRNA gene sequencing demonstrated significant differences between the two groups with a reduced abundance of Actinobacteria in smokers. Fusobacterium and Campylobacter were found in higher abundance, while a lower abundance of Leptotrichia, Actinomyces, Corynebacterium, and Lautropia were observed. This study highlighted significant differences in the oral microbiota of smokers, indicating an abundance of anaerobic gram-negative bacteria. These findings suggest that smoking allows certain oral microorganisms to gain dominance, thereby predisposing individuals to periodontal disease development and progression.

Investigating the altered expression of miR-486-5p and miR-novel-chr1_40444 in dysglycemia in a South African population.

AIMS: This study aims to investigate miR-486-5p and miR-novel-chr1_40444 expressions in dysglycemic individuals. Validating RNA-sequencing findings in a larger sample via reverse transcription qPCR (RT-qPCR), we aim to address global diagnostic and screening limitations, using an African cohort as an example. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This cross-sectional study involved 1,271 individuals [normoglycemic (n = 974), prediabetic (n = 206), screen-detected type 2 diabetes (n = 91)] from the ongoing Vascular and Metabolic Health (VMH) study in Cape Town, South Africa. Whole blood miRNA expression was assessed using TaqMan-based RT-qPCR, with data normalized to an endogenous control (miR-16-5p). RESULTS: Significant underexpression was observed in prediabetes vs normoglycemia for miR-486-5p (P = 0.038), whilst both miRNAs demonstrated significant upregulation in screen-detected type 2 diabetes vs normoglycemia (miR-486-5p, P = 0.009; miR-novel-chr1_40444, P < 0.001), and screen-detected type 2 diabetes in comparison with prediabetes (miR-486-5p, P < 0.001; miR-novel-chr1_40444, P < 0.001). Multivariable regression analyses revealed pronounced interrelations between miR-novel-chr1_40444 and screen-detected type 2 diabetes in unadjusted and adjusted models (Model 1: P < 0.001, Model 2: P < 0.001, Model 3: P = 0.030). Moreover, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves revealed significantly enhanced diagnostic capabilities for screen-detected type 2 diabetes vs either normoglycemia (AUC = 0.971, P < 0.001), non-diabetes (AUC = 0.959, P < 0.001), or prediabetes (AUC = 0.902, P < 0.001) when combining the miRNAs with 2 h postprandial glucose. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated the enhanced power of incorporating miRNAs with traditional markers in distinguishing screen-detected type 2 diabetes, warranting further investigations on their unique role in the development of type 2 diabetes.

Utility of waist-to-height ratio, waist circumference and body mass index in predicting clustered cardiometabolic risk factors and subclinical vascular phenotypes in children and adolescents: A pooled analysis of individual data from 14 countries.

AIMS: The clinical utility of waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) in predicting cardiometabolic risk factors (CMRFs) and subclinical markers of cardiovascular disease remains controversial. We aimed to compare the utility of WHtR with waist circumference (WC) and body mass index (BMI) in identifying children and adolescents (youths) at risk for cardiometabolic outcomes, including clustered CMRFs, high carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT), and arterial stiffness (assessed as high pulse wave velocity, PWV). METHODS: We analyzed data from 34,224 youths (51.0 % boys, aged 6-18 years) with CMRFs, 5004 (49.5 % boys, aged 6-18 years) with cIMT measurement, and 3100 (56.4 % boys, aged 6-17 years) with PWV measurement from 20 pediatric samples across 14 countries. RESULTS: WHtR, WC, and BMI z-scores had similar performance in discriminating youths with ≥3 CMRFs, with the area under the curve (AUC) (95 % confidence interval, CI)) ranging from 0.77 (0.75-0.78) to 0.78 (0.76-0.80) using the modified National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) definition, and from 0.77 (0.74-0.79) to 0.77 (0.74-0.80) using the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) definition. Similarly, all three measures showed similar performance in discriminating youths with subclinical vascular outcomes, with AUC (95 % CI) ranging from 0.67 (0.64-0.71) to 0.70 (0.66-0.73) for high cIMT (≥P95 values) and from 0.60 (0.58-0.66) to 0.62 (0.58-0.66) for high PWV (≥P95 values). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that WHtR, WC, and BMI are equally effective in identifying at-risk youths across diverse pediatric populations worldwide. Given its simplicity and ease of use, WHtR could be a preferable option for quickly screening youths with increased cardiometabolic risk in clinical settings.

Diabetes mellitus and inflammation.

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is increasingly common worldwide. Related complications account for increased morbidity and mortality, and enormous healthcare spending. Knowledge of the pathophysiological derangements involved in the occurrence of diabetes and related complications is critical for successful prevention and control solutions. Epidemiologic studies have established an association between inflammatory biomarkers and the occurrence of T2DM and complications. Adipose tissue appears to be a major site of production of those inflammatory biomarkers, as a result of the cross-talk between adipose cells, macrophages, and other immune cells that infiltrate the expanding adipose tissue. The triggering mechanisms of the inflammation in T2DM are still ill-understood. Inflammatory response likely contributes to T2DM occurrence by causing insulin resistance, and is in turn intensified in the presence of hyperglycemia to promote long-term complications of diabetes. Targeting inflammatory pathways could possibly be a component of the strategies to prevent and control diabetes and related complications.

Chronic kidney diseases in mixed ancestry south African populations: prevalence, determinants and concordance between kidney function estimators.

BACKGROUND: Population-based data on the burden of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in sub-Saharan Africa is still very limited. We assessed the prevalence and determinants of CKD, and evaluated the concordance of commonly advocated estimators of glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in a mixed ancestry population from South Africa. METHODS: Participants were a population-based sample of adults selected from the Bellville-South community in the metropolitan city of Cape Town. eGFR was based on the Cockroft-Gault (CG), Modification of Diet in Kidney Disease (MDRD) and CKD Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equations (with and without adjustment for ethnicity). Kidney function staging used the Kidney Disease Outcome Quality Initiative (KDOQI) classification. Logistic regressions and kappa statistic were used to investigate determinants of CKD and assess the agreement between different estimators. RESULTS: The crude prevalence of CKD stage 3-5 was 14.8% for Cockcroft-Gault, 7.6% and 23.9% respectively for the MDRD with and without ethnicity correction, and 7.4% and 17.3% for the CKD-EPI equations with and without ethnicity correction. The highest agreement between GFR estimators was between MDRD and CKD-EPI equations, both with ethnicity correction, Kappa 0.91 (95% CI: 0.86-0.95), correlation coefficient 0.95 (95% CI: 0.94-0.96). In multivariable logistic regression models, sex, age and known hypertension were consistently associated with CKD stage 3-5 across the 5 estimators. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of CKD stages greater than 3 is the highest reported in Africa. This study provides evidence for support of the CKD-EPI equation for eGFR reporting and CKD classification.

The association between acid-base status and clinical outcome in critically ill COVID-19 patients admitted to intensive care unit with an emphasis on high anion gap metabolic acidosis.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to identify arterial blood gas (ABG) abnormalities, with a focus on a high anion gap (AG) metabolic acidosis and evaluate outcomes in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients admitted to the ICU. METHODS: A retrospective, observational study was conducted in a tertiary hospital in Cape Town during the first and second COVID-19 waves. Age, gender, sodium (Na), potassium (K), chloride (Cl), bicarbonate (HCO3std), pH, partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2), creatinine, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), lactate levels and ABG results were obtained. The Pearson χ2 test or Fisher exact test and the Wilcoxon rank-sum test were used to compare mortality and survival. To identify factors associated with non-survival, a multivariable model was developed. RESULTS: This study included 465 patients, 226 (48%) of whom were female. The sample population's median (IQR) age was 54.2 (46.1-61.3) years, and 63% of the patients died. ABG analyses found that 283 (61%) of the 465 patients had alkalosis (pH ≥ 7.45), 65 (14%) had acidosis (pH ≤ 7.35) and 117 (25%) had normal pH (7.35-7.45). In the group with alkalosis, 199 (70.3%) had a metabolic alkalosis and in the group with acidosis, 42 (64%) had a metabolic acidosis with an increased AG of more than 17. Non-survivors were older than survivors (56.4 years versus 50.3 years, p < .001). CONCLUSION: Most of the COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU had an alkalosis, and those with acidosis had a much worse prognosis. Higher AG metabolic acidosis was not associated with patients' characteristics.

An investigation of the correlation of vitamin D status and management outcomes in patients with severe COVID-19 at a South African tertiary hospital.

Background: Severe COVID-19 has a poor prognosis, and biomarkers may predict disease severity. This study aimed to assess the effect of baseline Vitamin D (VitD) inadequacy on outcome of patients with severe COVID-19 admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) in a tertiary hospital in South Africa. Methods: Patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 were recruited during wave II of the pandemic in Cape Town. Eighty-six patients were included in the study. They were categorized into three groups "VitD deficient, VitD insufficient and VitD sufficient". We combined the VitD deficient with insufficient group to form "VitD inadequate'' group. Cox regression analysis was done to assess the association between VitD status and mortality. Factors with p< 0.05 in adjusted multivariable cox regression were considered statistically significant. Results: The proportion of VitD inadequacy was 64% (55/86), with significantly higher proportion of hypertension (66%; p 0.012). Kaplan Meir curve showed no significant difference in the probability of survival among the COVID-19 patients admitted in the ICU with or without VitD inadequacy. However, patients with elevated serum creatinine were significantly more at risk of dying (Adjusted Hazard Ratio 1.008 (1.002 - 1.030, p<0.017). Conclusion: Our study found a high prevalence of VitD inadequacy (combined deficiency and insufficiency) in COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU. This may indicate a possible risk of severe disease. Whilst there was no statistically significant relationship between VitD status and mortality in this cohort, baseline VitD may be an important prognostic biomarker in COVID-19 patients admitted to the ICU, particularly in those with comorbidities that predispose to VitD deficiency.

Immunologic and vascular biomarkers of mortality in critical COVID-19 in a South African cohort.

Introduction: Biomarkers predicting mortality among critical Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients provide insight into the underlying pathophysiology of fatal disease and assist with triaging of cases in overburdened settings. However, data describing these biomarkers in Sub-Saharan African populations are sparse. Methods: We collected serum samples and corresponding clinical data from 87 patients with critical COVID-19 on day 1 of admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) of a tertiary hospital in Cape Town, South Africa, during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. A second sample from the same patients was collected on day 7 of ICU admission. Patients were followed up until in-hospital death or hospital discharge. A custom-designed 52 biomarker panel was performed on the Luminex® platform. Data were analyzed for any association between biomarkers and mortality based on pre-determined functional groups, and individual analytes. Results: Of 87 patients, 55 (63.2%) died and 32 (36.8%) survived. We found a dysregulated cytokine response in patients who died, with elevated levels of type-1 and type-2 cytokines, chemokines, and acute phase reactants, as well as reduced levels of regulatory T cell cytokines. Interleukin (IL)-15 and IL-18 were elevated in those who died, and levels reduced over time in those who survived. Procalcitonin (PCT), C-reactive protein, Endothelin-1 and vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 were elevated in those who died. Discussion: These results show the pattern of dysregulation in critical COVID-19 in a Sub-Saharan African cohort. They suggest that fatal COVID-19 involved excessive activation of cytotoxic cells and the NLRP3 (nucleotide-binding domain, leucine-rich-containing family, pyrin domain-containing-3) inflammasome. Furthermore, superinfection and endothelial dysfunction with thrombosis might have contributed to mortality. HIV infection did not affect the outcome. A clinically relevant biosignature including PCT, pH and lymphocyte percentage on differential count, had an 84.8% sensitivity for mortality, and outperformed the Luminex-derived biosignature.