RESUMEN
Few past studies have collected and analyzed within-city variation of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) elements. We developed land-use regression (LUR) models to characterize spatial variation of 15 PM2.5 elements collected at 150 street-level locations in New York City during December 2008-November 2009: aluminum, bromine, calcium, copper, iron, potassium, manganese, sodium, nickel, lead, sulfur, silicon, titanium, vanadium, and zinc. Summer- and winter-only data available at 99 locations in the subsequent 3 years, up to November 2012, were analyzed to examine variation of LUR results across years. Spatial variation of each element was modeled in LUR including six major emission indicators: boilers burning residual oil; traffic density; industrial structures; construction/demolition (these four indicators in buffers of 50 to 1000 m), commercial cooking based on a dispersion model; and ship traffic based on inverse distance to navigation path weighted by associated port berth volume. All the elements except sodium were associated with at least one source, with R(2) ranging from 0.2 to 0.8. Strong source-element associations, persistent across years, were found for residual oil burning (nickel, zinc), near-road traffic (copper, iron, and titanium), and ship traffic (vanadium). These emission source indicators were also significant and consistent predictors of PM2.5 concentrations across years.
Asunto(s)
Modelos Teóricos , Material Particulado , Contaminantes Atmosféricos , Ciudades , Ciudad de Nueva York , VanadioRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Previous studies suggested a possible association between fine particulate matter air pollution (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and the development of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, but effect sizes have been small and methodologic weaknesses preclude firm conclusions. METHODS: We linked birth certificates in New York City in 2008-2010 to hospital discharge diagnoses and estimated air pollution exposure based on maternal address. The New York City Community Air Survey provided refined estimates of PM2.5 and NO2 at the maternal residence. We estimated the association between exposures to PM2.5 and NO2 in the first and second trimester and risk of gestational hypertension, mild preeclampsia, and severe preeclampsia among 268,601 births. RESULTS: In unadjusted analyses, we found evidence of a positive association between both pollutants and gestational hypertension. However, after adjustment for individual covariates, socioeconomic deprivation, and delivery hospital, we did not find evidence of an association between PM2.5 or NO2 in the first or second trimester and any of the outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Our data did not provide clear evidence of an effect of ambient air pollution on hypertensive disorders of pregnancy. Results need to be interpreted with caution considering the quality of the available exposure and health outcome measures and the uncertain impact of adjusting for hospital. Relative to previous studies, which have tended to identify positive associations with PM2.5 and NO2, our large study size, refined air pollution exposure estimates, hospital-based disease ascertainment, and little risk of confounding by socioeconomic deprivation, does not provide evidence for an association.
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Contaminantes Atmosféricos/toxicidad , Contaminación del Aire/efectos adversos , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales/efectos adversos , Hipertensión Inducida en el Embarazo/etiología , Dióxido de Nitrógeno/toxicidad , Material Particulado/toxicidad , Adulto , Contaminantes Atmosféricos/análisis , Contaminación del Aire/análisis , Contaminación del Aire/estadística & datos numéricos , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales/análisis , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales/estadística & datos numéricos , Femenino , Humanos , Modelos Estadísticos , Ciudad de Nueva York , Dióxido de Nitrógeno/análisis , Material Particulado/análisis , EmbarazoRESUMEN
Numerous studies have linked air pollution with adverse birth outcomes, but relatively few have examined differential associations across the socioeconomic gradient. To evaluate interaction effects of gestational nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and area-level socioeconomic deprivation on fetal growth, we used: (1) highly spatially-resolved air pollution data from the New York City Community Air Survey (NYCCAS); and (2) spatially-stratified principle component analysis of census variables previously associated with birth outcomes to define area-level deprivation. New York City (NYC) hospital birth records for years 2008-2010 were restricted to full-term, singleton births to non-smoking mothers (n=243,853). We used generalized additive mixed models to examine the potentially non-linear interaction of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and deprivation categories on birth weight (and estimated linear associations, for comparison), adjusting for individual-level socio-demographic characteristics and sensitivity testing adjustment for co-pollutant exposures. Estimated NO2 exposures were highest, and most varying, among mothers residing in the most-affluent census tracts, and lowest among mothers residing in mid-range deprivation tracts. In non-linear models, we found an inverse association between NO2 and birth weight in the least-deprived and most-deprived areas (p-values<0.001 and 0.05, respectively) but no association in the mid-range of deprivation (p=0.8). Likewise, in linear models, a 10 ppb increase in NO2 was associated with a decrease in birth weight among mothers in the least-deprived and most-deprived areas of -16.2g (95% CI: -21.9 to -10.5) and -11.0 g (95% CI: -22.8 to 0.9), respectively, and a non-significant change in the mid-range areas [ß=0.5 g (95% CI: -7.7 to 8.7)]. Linear slopes in the most- and least-deprived quartiles differed from the mid-range (reference group) (p-values<0.001 and 0.09, respectively). The complex patterning in air pollution exposure and deprivation in NYC, however, precludes simple interpretation of interactive effects on birth weight, and highlights the importance of considering differential distributions of air pollution concentrations, and potential differences in susceptibility, across deprivation levels.
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Contaminantes Atmosféricos/toxicidad , Peso al Nacer , Dióxido de Nitrógeno/toxicidad , Factores Socioeconómicos , Adulto , Femenino , Humanos , Recién Nacido , Ciudad de Nueva York , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Many types of tree pollen trigger seasonal allergic illness, but their population-level impacts on allergy and asthma morbidity are not well established, likely due to the paucity of long records of daily pollen data that allow analysis of multi-day effects. Our objective in this study was therefore to determine the impacts of individual spring tree pollen types on over-the-counter allergy medication sales and asthma emergency department (ED) visits. METHODS: Nine clinically-relevant spring tree pollen genera (elm, poplar, maple, birch, beech, ash, sycamore/London planetree, oak, and hickory) measured in Armonk, NY, were analyzed for their associations with over-the-counter allergy medication sales and daily asthma syndrome ED visits from patients' chief complaints or diagnosis codes in New York City during March 1st through June 10th, 2002-2012. Multi-day impacts of pollen on the outcomes (0-3 days and 0-7 days for the medication sales and ED visits, respectively) were estimated using a distributed lag Poisson time-series model adjusting for temporal trends, day-of-week, weather, and air pollution. For asthma syndrome ED visits, age groups were also analyzed. Year-to-year variation in the average peak dates and the 10th-to-90th percentile duration between pollen and the outcomes were also examined with Spearman's rank correlation. RESULTS: Mid-spring pollen types (maple, birch, beech, ash, oak, and sycamore/London planetree) showed the strongest significant associations with both outcomes, with cumulative rate ratios up to 2.0 per 0-to-98th percentile pollen increase (e.g., 1.9 [95% CI: 1.7, 2.1] and 1.7 [95% CI: 1.5, 1.9] for the medication sales and ED visits, respectively, for ash). Lagged associations were longer for asthma syndrome ED visits than for the medication sales. Associations were strongest in children (ages 5-17; e.g., a cumulative rate ratio of 2.6 [95% CI: 2.1, 3.1] per 0-to-98th percentile increase in ash). The average peak dates and durations of some of these mid-spring pollen types were also associated with those of the outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Tree pollen peaking in mid-spring exhibit substantive impacts on allergy, and asthma exacerbations, particularly in children. Given the narrow time window of these pollen peak occurrences, public health and clinical approaches to anticipate and reduce allergy/asthma exacerbation should be developed.
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Alérgenos/efectos adversos , Asma/epidemiología , Hipersensibilidad/epidemiología , Medicamentos Compuestos contra Resfriado, Gripe y Alergia/economía , Polen/efectos adversos , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Asma/etiología , Niño , Preescolar , Servicio de Urgencia en Hospital/estadística & datos numéricos , Femenino , Humanos , Hipersensibilidad/etiología , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Ciudad de Nueva York/epidemiología , Medicamentos sin Prescripción/economía , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
Building on a unique exposure assessment project in New York, New York, we examined the relationship of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 µm and nitrogen dioxide with birth weight, restricting the population to term births to nonsmokers, along with other restrictions, to isolate the potential impact of air pollution on growth. We included 252,967 births in 2008-2010 identified in vital records, and we assigned exposure at the residential location by using validated models that accounted for spatial and temporal factors. Estimates of association were adjusted for individual and contextual sociodemographic characteristics and season, using linear mixed models to quantify the predicted change in birth weight in grams related to increasing pollution levels. Adjusted estimates for particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 µm indicated that for each 10-µg/m(3) increase in exposure, birth weights declined by 18.4, 10.5, 29.7, and 48.4 g for exposures in the first, second, and third trimesters and for the total pregnancy, respectively. Adjusted estimates for nitrogen dioxide indicated that for each 10-ppb increase in exposure, birth weights declined by 14.2, 15.9, 18.0, and 18.0 g for exposures in the first, second, and third trimesters and for the total pregnancy, respectively. These results strongly support the association of urban air pollution exposure with reduced fetal growth.
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Peso al Nacer , Exposición Materna/efectos adversos , Dióxido de Nitrógeno/efectos adversos , Material Particulado/efectos adversos , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales/efectos adversos , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales/análisis , Femenino , Humanos , Recién Nacido , Ciudad de Nueva York , Embarazo , Nacimiento a TérminoRESUMEN
Previously published analyses showed that inequalities in mortality rates between residents of poor and wealthy neighborhoods in New York City (NYC) narrowed between 1990 and 2000, but these trends may have been influenced by population in-migration and gentrification. The NYC public housing population has been less subject to these population shifts than those in other NYC neighborhoods. We compared changes in mortality rates (MRs) from 1989-1991 to 1999-2001 among residents of NYC census blocks consisting entirely of public housing residences with residents of nonpublic housing low-income and higher-income blocks. Public housing and nonpublic housing low-income blocks were those in census block groups with > or =50% of residents living at <1.5 times the federal poverty level (FPL); nonpublic housing higher-income blocks were those in census block groups with <50% of residents living at <1.5 times the FPL. Information on deaths was obtained from NYC's vital registry, and US Census data were used for denominators. Age-standardized all-cause MRs in public housing, low-income, and higher-income residents decreased between the decades by 16%, 28%, and 22%, respectively. While mortality rate ratios between low-income and higher-income residents narrowed by 8%, the relative disparity between public housing and low-income residents widened by 21%. Diseases amenable to prevention including malignancies, diabetes, and chronic lung disease contributed to the increased overall mortality disparity between public housing and lower-income residents. These findings temper previous findings that inequalities in the health of poor and wealthier NYC neighborhood residents have narrowed. NYC public housing residents should be a high-priority population for efforts to reduce health disparities.
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Causas de Muerte/tendencias , Disparidades en el Estado de Salud , Características de la Residencia/clasificación , Clase Social , Emigrantes e Inmigrantes/estadística & datos numéricos , Humanos , Ciudad de Nueva York/epidemiología , Dinámica Poblacional , Vivienda Popular/estadística & datos numéricos , Características de la Residencia/estadística & datos numéricos , Salud Urbana/tendenciasRESUMEN
We surveyed 7318 customers from 275 randomly selected restaurants of 11 fast food chains. Participants purchased a mean of 827 calories, with 34% purchasing 1000 calories or more. Unlike other chains, Subway posted calorie information at point of purchase and its patrons more often reported seeing calorie information than patrons of other chains (32% vs 4%; P<.001); Subway patrons who saw calorie information purchased 52 fewer calories than did other Subway patrons (P<.01). Fast-food chains should display calorie information prominently at point of purchase, where it can be seen and used to inform purchases.
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Ingestión de Energía , Conducta Alimentaria , Restaurantes , Calorimetría , Encuestas sobre Dietas , Análisis de los Alimentos , Humanos , Ciudad de Nueva YorkRESUMEN
Exposure to allergenic tree pollen is a risk factor for multiple allergic disease outcomes. Little is known about how tree pollen levels vary within cities and whether such variation affects the development or exacerbation of allergic disease. Accordingly, we collected integrated pollen samples at uniform height at 45 sites across New York City during the 2013 pollen season. We used these monitoring results in combination with adjacent land use data to develop a land use regression model for tree pollen. We evaluated four types of land use variables for inclusion in the model: tree canopy, distributed building height (a measure of building volume density), elevation, and distance to water. When included alone in the model, percent tree canopy cover within a 0.5 km radial buffer explained 39% of the variance in tree pollen (1.9% increase in tree pollen per one-percentage point increase in tree canopy cover, P<0.0001). The inclusion of additional variables did not improve model fit. We conclude that intra-urban variation in tree canopy is an important driver of tree pollen exposure. Land use regression models can be used to incorporate spatial variation in tree pollen exposure in studies of allergic disease outcomes.
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Ciudades , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales/análisis , Polen , Medición de Riesgo/métodos , Árboles , Sistemas de Información Geográfica , Humanos , Modelos Teóricos , Ciudad de Nueva York , Análisis de Regresión , Reproducibilidad de los Resultados , Análisis Espacial , Población UrbanaRESUMEN
The impact of heat on mortality is well documented but deaths tend to occur after (or lag) extreme heat events, and mortality data is generally not available for timely surveillance during extreme heat events. Recently, systems for near-real time surveillance of heat illness have been reported but have not been validated as predictors of non-external cause of deaths associated with extreme heat events. We analyzed associations between daily weather conditions, emergency medical system (EMS) calls flagged as heat-related by EMS dispatchers, emergency department (ED) visits classified as heat-related based on chief complaint text, and excess non-external cause mortality in New York City. EMS and ED data were obtained from data reported daily to the city health department for syndromic surveillance. We fit generalized linear models to assess the relationships of daily counts of heat related EMS and ED visits to non-external cause deaths after adjustment for weather conditions during the months of May-September between 1999 and 2013. Controlling for temporal trends, a 7% (95% confidence interval (CI): 2-12) and 6% (95% CI: 3-10) increase in non-external cause mortality was associated with an increase from the 50th percentile to 99th percentile of same-day and one-day lagged heat-related EMS calls and ED visits, respectively. After controlling for both temporal trends and weather, we observed a 7% (95% CI: 3-12) increase in non-external cause mortality associated with one-day lagged heat-related EMS calls and a 5% mortality increase with one-day lagged ED visits (95% CI: 2-8). Heat-related illness can be tracked during extreme heat events using EMS and ED data which are indicators of heat associated excess non-external cause mortality during the warm weather season.
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Servicios Médicos de Urgencia/estadística & datos numéricos , Medicina de Emergencia/estadística & datos numéricos , Servicio de Urgencia en Hospital/estadística & datos numéricos , Calor Extremo , Trastornos de Estrés por Calor/terapia , Algoritmos , Urgencias Médicas , Humanos , Modelos Lineales , Morbilidad , Ciudad de Nueva York , Estaciones del Año , Factores de TiempoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: After an increase in cigarette taxes and implementation of smoke-free workplace legislation, the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, the New York State Department of Health, and the Roswell Park Cancer Institute undertook large-scale distribution of free nicotine replacement therapy (NRT). We did a 6 month follow-up survey to assess the success of this programme in improving smoking cessation on a population basis. METHODS: 34,090 eligible smokers who phoned a toll-free quitline were sent a 6-week course of nicotine patches (2 weeks each of 21 mg, 14 mg, and 7 mg per day). Brief follow-up counselling calls were attempted. At 6 months after treatment, we assessed smoking status of 1305 randomly sampled NRT recipients and a non-randomly selected comparison group of eligible smokers who, because of mailing errors, did not receive the treatment. NRT recipients were compared with local survey-derived data for heavy smokers in New York City. FINDINGS: An estimated 5% of all adults in New York City who smoked ten cigarettes or more daily received NRT; most (64%) recipients were non-white, foreign-born, or resided in a low-income neighbourhood. Of individuals contacted at 6 months, more NRT recipients than comparison group members successfully quit smoking (33%vs 6%, p<0.0001), and this difference remained significant after adjustment for demographic factors and amount smoked (odds ratio 8.8, 95% CI 4.4-17.8). Highest quit rates were associated with those who were foreign born (87 [39%]), older than 65 years (40 [47%]), and smoked less than 20 cigarettes per day (116 [35%]). Those who received a counselling call were more likely to stop smoking than those who did not (246 [38%] vs 189 [27%], p=0.001). With the conservative assumption that every 6-month follow-up survey non-respondent continued to smoke, the stop rate among NRT recipients was 20%. At least 6038 successful quits were attributable to NRT receipt, and cost was 464 US dollars per quit. INTERPRETATION: Easy access to cessation medication for diverse populations could help many more smokers to stop.
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Nicotina/administración & dosificación , Cese del Hábito de Fumar , Administración Cutánea , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Femenino , Programas de Gobierno , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Ciudad de Nueva York , Evaluación de Programas y Proyectos de Salud , Fumar/legislación & jurisprudencia , Prevención del Hábito de FumarRESUMEN
Some have hypothesized that community water containing sodium silicofluoride and hydrofluosilicic acid may increase blood lead (PbB) concentrations in children by leaching of lead from water conduits and by increasing absorption of lead from water. Our analysis aimed to evaluate the relation between water fluoridation method and PbB concentrations in children. We used PbB concentration data (n=9,477) from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1988-1994) for children 1-16 years of age, merged with water fluoridation data from the 1992 Fluoridation Census. The main outcome measure was geometric mean PbB concentration, and covariates included age, sex, race/ethnicity, poverty status, urbanicity, and length of time living in residence. Geometric mean PbB concentrations for each water fluoridation method were 2.40 microg/dL (sodium silicofluoride), 2.34 microg/dL (hydrofluosilicic acid), 1.78 microg/dL (sodium fluoride), 2.24 microg/dL (natural fluoride and no fluoride), and 2.14 microg/dL (unknown/mixed status). In multiple linear and logistic regression, there was a statistical interaction between water fluoridation method and year in which dwelling was built. Controlling for covariates, water fluoridation method was significant only in the models that included dwellings built before 1946 and dwellings of unknown age. Across stratum-specific models for dwellings of known age, neither hydrofluosilicic acid nor sodium silicofluoride were associated with higher geometric mean PbB concentrations or prevalence values. Given these findings, our analyses, though not definitive, do not support concerns that silicofluorides in community water systems cause higher PbB concentrations in children. Current evidence does not provide a basis for changing water fluoridation practices, which have a clear public health benefit.
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Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales , Fluoruración , Plomo/sangre , Adolescente , Niño , Preescolar , Femenino , Fluoruración/métodos , Vivienda , Humanos , Lactante , Masculino , Estados UnidosRESUMEN
Normal endocrine function in utero and early in childhood influences later height and weight attainment. Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) are persistent environmental contaminants with suspected endocrine-disrupting properties. PCBs may mimic or inhibit hormone and endocrine processes based in part on their structural configuration, with non-ortho-substituted PCBs having a coplanar orientation and ortho-substituted PCBs becoming increasingly noncoplanar. Coplanar and noncoplanar PCBs have known differences in biologic effect. Animal studies link prenatal PCB exposure to adverse birth and early-life growth outcomes, but epidemiologic studies are conflicting. We examined whether prenatal exposure to PCBs, categorized by their degree of ortho-substitution, affected childhood height and weight attainment in 150 children (109 boys and 41 girls) with African-American mothers born at the Columbia-Presbyterian Hospital from 1959 through 1962. Stratifying by sex, we used regression models for repeated measures to investigate associations between maternal levels of PCBs and height and weight through 17 years of age. Maternal levels of ortho-substituted PCBs were associated with reduced weight through 17 years of age among girls but not among boys. Tri-ortho-substituted PCBs were marginally associated with increased height in boys. Although limited by sample size, our results suggest that prenatal exposure to PCBs may affect growth, especially in girls, and that ortho-substitution is an important determinant of its effect on growth.
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Crecimiento/efectos de los fármacos , Bifenilos Policlorados/toxicidad , Efectos Tardíos de la Exposición Prenatal , Adolescente , Estatura/efectos de los fármacos , Peso Corporal/efectos de los fármacos , Niño , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , EmbarazoRESUMEN
To promote use of essential clinical preventive services, the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene developed the Public Health Detailing Program, a primary care provider outreach initiative modeled on pharmaceutical detailing. Department representatives conducted topical campaigns, making unscheduled visits to health care practices and meeting with providers and office staff members. Representatives distributed "action kits" containing practice tools, provider information, and patient education materials; nicotine replacement therapy was distributed during the smoking cessation campaign. More than 2,500 interactions with practice staff members were completed by six health department representatives at approximately 200 sites. Physician visits lasted 10 minutes or longer, and by provider self-report, use of office systems for prevention and adherence to recommended practices increased. Public health detailing is an effective method of reaching providers to deliver key prevention messages, feasible for public health agencies and acceptable to practices. The effectiveness of this intervention in improving clinical prevention services requires further evaluation.
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Neoplasias del Colon/diagnóstico , Vacunas contra la Influenza/administración & dosificación , Tamizaje Masivo/estadística & datos numéricos , Servicios Preventivos de Salud/organización & administración , Salud Pública/estadística & datos numéricos , Cese del Hábito de Fumar , Anciano , Humanos , Persona de Mediana Edad , Ciudad de Nueva York , Servicios Preventivos de Salud/métodos , Servicios Preventivos de Salud/estadística & datos numéricos , Salud Pública/tendenciasRESUMEN
Extreme heat event excess mortality has been estimated statistically to assess impacts, evaluate heat emergency response, and project climate change risks. We estimated annual excess non-external-cause deaths associated with extreme heat events in New York City (NYC). Extreme heat events were defined as days meeting current National Weather Service forecast criteria for issuing heat advisories in NYC based on observed maximum daily heat index values from LaGuardia Airport. Outcomes were daily non-external-cause death counts for NYC residents from May through September from 1997 to 2013 (n = 337,162). The cumulative relative risk (CRR) of death associated with extreme heat events was estimated in a Poisson time-series model for each year using an unconstrained distributed lag for days 0-3 accommodating over dispersion, and adjusting for within-season trends and day of week. Attributable death counts were computed by year based on individual year CRRs. The pooled CRR per extreme heat event day was 1.11 (95%CI 1.08-1.14). The estimated annual excess non-external-cause deaths attributable to heat waves ranged from -14 to 358, with a median of 121. Point estimates of heat wave-attributable deaths were greater than 0 in all years but one and were correlated with the number of heat wave days (r = 0.81). Average excess non-external-cause deaths associated with extreme heat events were nearly 11-fold greater than hyperthermia deaths. Estimated extreme heat event-associated excess deaths may be a useful indicator of the impact of extreme heat events, but single-year estimates are currently too imprecise to identify short-term changes in risk.
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Cambio Climático , Calor Extremo/efectos adversos , Mortalidad/tendencias , Humanos , Ciudad de Nueva York/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
IMPORTANCE: Cardiovascular deaths and influenza epidemics peak during winter in temperate regions. OBJECTIVES: To quantify the temporal association between population increases in seasonal influenza infections and mortality due to cardiovascular causes and to test if influenza incidence indicators are predictive of cardiovascular mortality during the influenza season. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Time-series analysis of vital statistics records and emergency department visits in New York City, among cardiovascular deaths that occurred during influenza seasons between January 1, 2006, and December 31, 2012. The 2009 novel influenza A(H1N1) pandemic period was excluded from temporal analyses. EXPOSURES: Emergency department visits for influenza-like illness, grouped by age (≥0 years and ≥65 years) and scaled by laboratory surveillance data for viral types and subtypes, in the previous 28 days. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Mortality due to cardiovascular disease, ischemic heart disease, and myocardial infarction. RESULTS: Among adults 65 years and older, who accounted for 83.0% (73â¯363 deaths) of nonpandemic cardiovascular mortality during influenza seasons, seasonal average influenza incidence was correlated year to year with excess cardiovascular mortality (Pearson correlation coefficients ≥0.75, P ≤ .05 for 4 different influenza indicators). In daily time-series analyses using 4 different influenza metrics, interquartile range increases in influenza incidence during the previous 21 days were associated with an increase between 2.3% (95% CI, 0.7%-3.9%) and 6.3% (95% CI, 3.7%-8.9%) for cardiovascular disease mortality and between 2.4% (95% CI, 1.1%-3.6%) and 6.9% (95% CI, 4.0%-9.9%) for ischemic heart disease mortality among adults 65 years and older. The associations were most acute and strongest for myocardial infarction mortality, with each interquartile range increase in influenza incidence during the previous 14 days associated with mortality increases between 5.8% (95% CI, 2.5%-9.1%) and 13.1% (95% CI, 5.3%-20.9%). Out-of-sample prediction of cardiovascular mortality among adults 65 years and older during the 2009-2010 influenza season yielded average estimates with 94.0% accuracy using 4 different influenza metrics. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Emergency department visits for influenza-like illness were associated with and predictive of cardiovascular disease mortality. Retrospective estimation of influenza-attributable cardiovascular mortality burden combined with accurate and reliable influenza forecasts could predict the timing and burden of seasonal increases in cardiovascular mortality.
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Enfermedades Cardiovasculares/mortalidad , Gripe Humana/complicaciones , Estaciones del Año , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Niño , Preescolar , Humanos , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Gripe Humana/epidemiología , Gripe Humana/mortalidad , Persona de Mediana Edad , Isquemia Miocárdica/mortalidad , Ciudad de Nueva York/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
In this study we quantify economic benefits from projected improvements in worker productivity resulting from the reduction in children's exposure to lead in the United States since 1976. We calculated the decline in blood lead levels (BLLs) from 1976 to 1999 on the basis of nationally representative National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data collected during 1976 through 1980, 1991 through 1994, and 1999. The decline in mean BLL in 1- to 5-year-old U.S. children from 1976-1980 to 1991-1994 was 12.3 microg/dL, and the estimated decline from 1976 to 1999 was 15.1 microg/dL. We assumed the change in cognitive ability resulting from declines in BLLs, on the basis of published meta-analyses, to be between 0.185 and 0.323 IQ points for each 1 g/dL blood lead concentration. These calculations imply that, because of falling BLLs, U.S. preschool-aged children in the late 1990s had IQs that were, on average, 2.2-4.7 points higher than they would have been if they had the blood lead distribution observed among U.S. preschool-aged children in the late 1970s. We estimated that each IQ point raises worker productivity 1.76-2.38%. With discounted lifetime earnings of $723,300 for each 2-year-old in 2000 dollars, the estimated economic benefit for each year's cohort of 3.8 million 2-year-old children ranges from $110 billion to $319 billion.
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Protección a la Infancia , Trastornos del Conocimiento/economía , Trastornos del Conocimiento/etiología , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales , Contaminación Ambiental/economía , Contaminación Ambiental/prevención & control , Renta/tendencias , Plomo/efectos adversos , Modelos Econométricos , Niño , Preescolar , Estudios de Cohortes , Análisis Costo-Beneficio , Femenino , Predicción , Humanos , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Inteligencia , Plomo/economía , Masculino , OcupacionesRESUMEN
In this study, the authors investigated the associations between socioeconomic status and exposures to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE) in a cohort of inner-city African-American pregnant women. Data for this study were derived from the Columbia Presbyterian Medical Center subcohort of the National Collaborative Perinatal Project. African-American women from whom venous blood had been collected during their third trimester of pregnancy during the time period between 1960 and 1965 were included in the current study (n = 152). Prenatal samples were assayed for PCB and DDE concentrations. The authors used linear-regression analysis to explore the association between socioeconomic indicators and PCB and DDE concentrations. Mean concentrations of the 4 most abundant congeners (i.e., PCB4) and total DDE were 3.9 microg/l and 37.2 microg/l, respectively. In adjusted analyses, income was associated significantly with an increase in serum concentrations of PCBs, whereas education was not. Neither income nor education was associated with concentrations of DDE. The authors concluded that maternal socioeconomic indicators may influence the effects of exposure to PCBs among African-American pregnant women.
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Diclorodifenil Dicloroetileno/análisis , Exposición a Riesgos Ambientales , Bifenilos Policlorados/análisis , Clase Social , Adulto , Negro o Afroamericano , Estudios de Cohortes , Diclorodifenil Dicloroetileno/sangre , Femenino , Humanos , Bifenilos Policlorados/sangre , Embarazo , Tercer Trimestre del Embarazo/sangre , Análisis de Regresión , Estados UnidosRESUMEN
Routine air monitoring provides data to assess urban scale temporal variation in pollution concentrations in relation to regulatory standards, but is not well suited to characterizing intraurban spatial variation in pollutant concentrations from local sources. To address these limitations and inform local control strategies, New York City developed a program to track spatial patterns of multiple air pollutants in each season of the year. Monitor locations include 150 distributed street-level sites chosen to represent a range of traffic, land-use and other characteristics. Integrated samples are collected at each distributed site for one 2-week session each season and in every 2-week period at five reference locations to track city-wide temporal variation. Pollutants sampled include PM(2.5) and constituents, nitrogen oxides, black carbon, ozone (summer only) and sulfur dioxide (winter only). During the first full year of monitoring more than 95% of designed samples were completed. Agreement between colocated samples was good (absolute mean % difference 3.2-8.9%). Street-level pollutant concentrations spanned a much greater range than did concentrations at regulatory monitors, especially for oxides of nitrogen and sulfur dioxide. Monitoring to characterize intraurban spatial gradients in ambient pollution usefully complements regulatory monitoring data to inform local air quality management.
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Contaminantes Atmosféricos/análisis , Población Urbana , Monitoreo del Ambiente , Ciudad de Nueva YorkRESUMEN
The impact of pollen exposure on population allergic illness is poorly characterized. We explore the association of tree pollen and over-the-counter daily allergy medication sales in the New York City metropolitan area. Dates of peak tree pollen (maple, oak, and birch) concentrations were identified from 2003 to 2008. Daily allergy medication sales reported to the city health department were analyzed as a function of the same-day and lagged tree pollen peak indicators, adjusting for season, year, temperature, and day of week. Significant associations were found between tree pollen peaks and allergy medication sales, with the strongest association at 2-day lag (excess sales of 28.7% (95% CI: 17.4-41.2) over the average sales during the study period). The cumulative effect over the 7-day period on and after the tree pollen peak dates was estimated to be 141.1% (95% CI: 79.4-224.1). In conclusion, tree pollen concentration peaks were followed by large increases in over-the-counter allergy medication sales.
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OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of fast food restaurants adding calorie labelling to menu items on the energy content of individual purchases. DESIGN: Cross sectional surveys in spring 2007 and spring 2009 (one year before and nine months after full implementation of regulation requiring chain restaurants' menus to contain details of the energy content of all menu items). Setting 168 randomly selected locations of the top 11 fast food chains in New York City during lunchtime hours. PARTICIPANTS: 7309 adult customers interviewed in 2007 and 8489 in 2009. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Energy content of individual purchases, based on customers' register receipts and on calorie information provided for all items in menus. RESULTS: For the full sample, mean calories purchased did not change from before to after regulation (828 v 846 kcal, P = 0.22), though a modest decrease was shown in a regression model adjusted for restaurant chain, poverty level for the store location, sex of customers, type of purchase, and inflation adjusted cost (847 v 827 kcal, P = 0.01). Three major chains, which accounted for 42% of customers surveyed, showed significant reductions in mean energy per purchase (McDonald's 829 v 785 kcal, P = 0.02; Au Bon Pain 555 v 475 kcal, P<0.001; KFC 927 v 868 kcal, P<0.01), while mean energy content increased for one chain (Subway 749 v 882 kcal, P<0.001). In the 2009 survey, 15% (1288/8489) of customers reported using the calorie information, and these customers purchased 106 fewer kilocalories than customers who did not see or use the calorie information (757 v 863 kcal, P<0.001). CONCLUSION: Although no overall decline in calories purchased was observed for the full sample, several major chains saw significant reductions. After regulation, one in six lunchtime customers used the calorie information provided, and these customers made lower calorie choices.