Using GPS data to evaluate the accuracy of state-space methods for correction of Argos satellite telemetry error.

Recent studies have applied state-space models to satellite telemetry data in order to remove noise from raw location estimates and infer the true tracks of animals. However, while the resulting tracks may appear plausible, it is difficult to determine the accuracy of the estimated positions, especially for position estimates interpolated to times between satellite locations. In this study, we use data from two gray seals (Halichoerus grypus) carrying tags that transmitted Fastloc GPS positions via Argos satellites. This combination of Service Argos data and highly accurate GPS data allowed examination of the accuracy of state-space position estimates and their uncertainty derived from satellite telemetry data. After applying a speed filter to remove aberrant satellite telemetry locations, we fit a continuous-time Kalman filter to estimate the parameters of a random walk, used Kalman smoothing to infer positions at the times of the GPS measurements, and then compared the filtered telemetry estimates with the actual GPS measurements. We investigated the effect of varying maximum speed thresholds in the speed-filtering algorithm on the root mean-square error (RMSE) estimates and used minimum RMSE as a criterion to guide the final choice of speed threshold. The optimal speed thresholds differed between the two animals (1.1 m/s and 2.5 m/s) and retained 50% and 65% of the data for each seal. However, using a speed filter of 1.1 m/s resulted in very similar RMSE for both animals. For the two seals, the RMSE of the Kalman-filtered estimates of location were 5.9 and 12.76 km, respectively, and 75% of the modeled positions had errors less than 6.25 km and 11.7 km for each seal. Confidence interval coverage was close to correct at typical levels (80-95%), although it tended to be overly generous at smaller sizes. The reliability of uncertainty estimates was also affected by the chosen speed threshold. The combination of speed and Kalman filtering allows for effective calculation of location and also indicates the limits of accuracy when correcting service Argos locations and linking satellite telemetry data to spatial covariate and habitat data.

Empirical measures of harbor seal behavior and avoidance of an operational tidal turbine.

There is global interest in marine renewable energy from underwater tidal turbines. Due to overlap in animal habitat with locations for tidal turbines, the potential for collisions has led to concern around strike risk. Using data from tagged harbor seals collected before construction and after operation of the SeaGen tidal turbine in Northern Ireland, this study quantifies risks of an operational turbine to harbor seals by taking into account turbine characteristics, tidal state, and seal behavior. We found 68% spatial avoidance (95% C.I., 37%, 83%) by harbor seals within 200 m of the turbine. When additionally accounting for variation in seal occupancy over depth and tidal flows, there is an overall reduction in collision risk from 1.29 to 0.125 seals per tidal cycle (90.3% reduction; (95% C.I., 83%, 98%)) compared to risk calculated under assumptions of uniform habitat use. This demonstrates the need to incorporate environmental conditions to properly assess strike risk.

Predicting the effects of polychlorinated biphenyls on cetacean populations through impacts on immunity and calf survival.

The potential impact of exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) on the health and survival of cetaceans continues to be an issue for conservation and management, yet few quantitative approaches for estimating population level effects have been developed. An individual based model (IBM) for assessing effects on both calf survival and immunity was developed and tested. Three case study species (bottlenose dolphin, humpback whale and killer whale) in four populations were taken as examples and the impact of varying levels of PCB uptake on achievable population growth was assessed. The unique aspect of the model is its ability to evaluate likely effects of immunosuppression in addition to calf survival, enabling consequences of PCB exposure on immune function on all age-classes to be explored. By incorporating quantitative tissue concentration-response functions from laboratory animal model species into an IBM framework, population trajectories were generated. Model outputs included estimated concentrations of PCBs in the blubber of females by age, which were then compared to published empirical data. Achievable population growth rates were more affected by the inclusion of effects of PCBs on immunity than on calf survival, but the magnitude depended on the virulence of any subsequent encounter with a pathogen and the proportion of the population exposed. Since the starting population parameters were from historic studies, which may already be impacted by PCBs, the results should be interpreted on a relative rather than an absolute basis. The framework will assist in providing quantitative risk assessments for populations of concern.

Fine-scale harbour seal usage for informed marine spatial planning.

High-resolution distribution maps can help inform conservation measures for protected species; including where any impacts of proposed commercial developments overlap the range of focal species. Around Orkney, northern Scotland, UK, the harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) population has decreased by 78% over 20 years. Concern for the declining harbour seal population has led to constraints being placed on tidal energy generation developments. For this study area, telemetry data from 54 animals tagged between 2003 and 2015 were used to produce density estimation maps. Predictive habitat models using GAM-GEEs provided robust predictions in areas where telemetry data were absent, and were combined with density estimation maps, and then scaled to population levels using August terrestrial counts between 2008 and 2015, to produce harbour seal usage maps with confidence intervals around Orkney and the North coast of Scotland. The selected habitat model showed that distance from haul out, proportion of sand in seabed sediment, and annual mean power were important predictors of space use. Fine-scale usage maps can be used in consenting and licensing of anthropogenic developments to determine local abundance. When quantifying commercial impacts through changes to species distributions, usage maps can be spatially explicitly linked to individual-based models to inform predicted movement and behaviour.

Individual-based model framework to assess population consequences of polychlorinated biphenyl exposure in bottlenose dolphins.

Marine mammals are susceptible to the effects of anthropogenic contaminants. Here we examine the effect of different polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) accumulation scenarios on potential population growth rates using, as an example, data obtained for the population of bottlenose dolphins from Sarasota Bay, Florida. To achieve this goal, we developed an individual-based model framework that simulates the accumulation of PCBs in the population and modifies first-year calf survival based on maternal blubber PCB levels. In our example the current estimated annual PCB accumulation rate for the Sarasota Bay dolphin population might be depressing the potential population growth rate. However, our predictions are limited both by model naivety and parameter uncertainty. We emphasize the need for more data collection on the relationship between maternal blubber PCB levels and calf survivorship, the annual accumulation of PCBs in the blubber of females, and the transfer of PCBs to the calf through the placenta and during lactation. Such data require continued efforts directed toward long-term studies of known individuals in wild and semiwild populations.

Avoidance of wind farms by harbour seals is limited to pile driving activities.

As part of global efforts to reduce dependence on carbon-based energy sources there has been a rapid increase in the installation of renewable energy devices. The installation and operation of these devices can result in conflicts with wildlife. In the marine environment, mammals may avoid wind farms that are under construction or operating. Such avoidance may lead to more time spent travelling or displacement from key habitats. A paucity of data on at-sea movements of marine mammals around wind farms limits our understanding of the nature of their potential impacts.Here, we present the results of a telemetry study on harbour seals Phoca vitulina in The Wash, south-east England, an area where wind farms are being constructed using impact pile driving. We investigated whether seals avoid wind farms during operation, construction in its entirety, or during piling activity. The study was carried out using historical telemetry data collected prior to any wind farm development and telemetry data collected in 2012 during the construction of one wind farm and the operation of another.Within an operational wind farm, there was a close-to-significant increase in seal usage compared to prior to wind farm development. However, the wind farm was at the edge of a large area of increased usage, so the presence of the wind farm was unlikely to be the cause.There was no significant displacement during construction as a whole. However, during piling, seal usage (abundance) was significantly reduced up to 25 km from the piling activity; within 25 km of the centre of the wind farm, there was a 19 to 83% (95% confidence intervals) decrease in usage compared to during breaks in piling, equating to a mean estimated displacement of 440 individuals. This amounts to significant displacement starting from predicted received levels of between 166 and 178 dB re 1 µPa(p-p). Displacement was limited to piling activity; within 2 h of cessation of pile driving, seals were distributed as per the non-piling scenario. Synthesis and applications. Our spatial and temporal quantification of avoidance of wind farms by harbour seals is critical to reduce uncertainty and increase robustness in environmental impact assessments of future developments. Specifically, the results will allow policymakers to produce industry guidance on the likelihood of displacement of seals in response to pile driving; the relationship between sound levels and avoidance rates; and the duration of any avoidance, thus allowing far more accurate environmental assessments to be carried out during the consenting process. Further, our results can be used to inform mitigation strategies in terms of both the sound levels likely to cause displacement and what temporal patterns of piling would minimize the magnitude of the energetic impacts of displacement.

Exposure to persistent organic pollutants and first-year survival probability in gray seal pups.

Many studies have demonstrated that persistent organic pollutants are transferred from mother to pup during lactation in phocid seals, but none have been able to determine the significance of these findings for survivorship. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between blubber contaminant concentrations and first-year survival in gray seal pups. A mark-recapture framework was used to estimate survival probabilities and animals were "marked" using novel mobile phone tags. Individual and group covariates (sex, condition, and blubber contaminants) were embedded within a live-resighting model. The most significant covariates remained condition at weaning and sex (males in poor condition had the lowest survival probability), as was found previously, but there was also evidence indicating that higher blubber contaminants additionally decreased survivorship. The models' Akaike's Information Criteria (AICs) and their associated weights, point toward the tetrapolybrominated diphenyl ether congeners (dominated by BDE-47) as being the most important group of contaminants affecting survival probability, followed by the total dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethanes (DDTs) and pentapolychlorinated biphenyl congeners. These compounds were not the most abundant in the blubber, suggesting further studies into their toxicological effects in this species are necessary. The specific mechanisms driving the reduction in survivorship remain unknown.