Emerging signals of declining forest resilience under climate change.

Forest ecosystems depend on their capacity to withstand and recover from natural and anthropogenic perturbations (that is, their resilience)1. Experimental evidence of sudden increases in tree mortality is raising concerns about variation in forest resilience2, yet little is known about how it is evolving in response to climate change. Here we integrate satellite-based vegetation indices with machine learning to show how forest resilience, quantified in terms of critical slowing down indicators3-5, has changed during the period 2000-2020. We show that tropical, arid and temperate forests are experiencing a significant decline in resilience, probably related to increased water limitations and climate variability. By contrast, boreal forests show divergent local patterns with an average increasing trend in resilience, probably benefiting from warming and CO2 fertilization, which may outweigh the adverse effects of climate change. These patterns emerge consistently in both managed and intact forests, corroborating the existence of common large-scale climate drivers. Reductions in resilience are statistically linked to abrupt declines in forest primary productivity, occurring in response to slow drifting towards a critical resilience threshold. Approximately 23% of intact undisturbed forests, corresponding to 3.32 Pg C of gross primary productivity, have already reached a critical threshold and are experiencing a further degradation in resilience. Together, these signals reveal a widespread decline in the capacity of forests to withstand perturbation that should be accounted for in the design of land-based mitigation and adaptation plans.

Contrasting coordination of non-structural carbohydrates with leaf and root economic strategies of alpine coniferous forests.

Non-structural carbohydrates (NSCs), as the labile fraction and dominant carbon currency, are essential mediators of plant adaptation to environments. However, whether and how NSC coordinates with plant economic strategy frameworks, particularly the well-recognized leaf economics spectrums (LES) and root economics space (RES), remains unclear. We examined the relationships between NSC and key plant economics traits in leaves and fine roots across 90 alpine coniferous populations on the Tibetan Plateau, China. We observed contrasting coordination of NSC with economics traits in leaves and roots. Leaf total NSC and soluble sugar aligned with the leaf economic spectrum, conveying a trade-off between growth and storage in leaves. However, NSC in roots was independent of the root economic spectrum, but highly coordinated with root foraging, with more starch and less sugar in forage-efficient, thinner roots. Further, NSC-trait coordination in leaves and roots was, respectively, driven by local temperature and precipitation. These findings highlight distinct roles of NSC in shaping the above- and belowground multidimensional economics trait space, and NSC-based carbon economics provides a mechanistic understanding of how plants adapt to heterogeneous habitats and respond to environmental changes.

Tree water uptake patterns across the globe.

Plant water uptake from the soil is a crucial element of the global hydrological cycle and essential for vegetation drought resilience. Yet, knowledge of how the distribution of water uptake depth (WUD) varies across species, climates, and seasons is scarce relative to our knowledge of aboveground plant functions. With a global literature review, we found that average WUD varied more among biomes than plant functional types (i.e. deciduous/evergreen broadleaves and conifers), illustrating the importance of the hydroclimate, especially precipitation seasonality, on WUD. By combining records of rooting depth with WUD, we observed a consistently deeper maximum rooting depth than WUD with the largest differences in arid regions - indicating that deep taproots act as lifelines while not contributing to the majority of water uptake. The most ubiquitous observation across the literature was that woody plants switch water sources to soil layers with the highest water availability within short timescales. Hence, seasonal shifts to deep soil layers occur across the globe when shallow soils are drying out, allowing continued transpiration and hydraulic safety. While there are still significant gaps in our understanding of WUD, the consistency across global ecosystems allows integration of existing knowledge into the next generation of vegetation process models.

Future climate doubles the risk of hydraulic failure in a wet tropical forest.

Future climate presents conflicting implications for forest biomass. We evaluate how plant hydraulic traits, elevated CO2 levels, warming, and changes in precipitation affect forest primary productivity, evapotranspiration, and the risk of hydraulic failure. We used a dynamic vegetation model with plant hydrodynamics (FATES-HYDRO) to simulate the stand-level responses to future climate changes in a wet tropical forest in Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We calibrated the model by selecting plant trait assemblages that performed well against observations. These assemblages were run with temperature and precipitation changes for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (2086-2100: SSP2-45, SSP5-85) and two CO2 levels (contemporary, anticipated). The risk of hydraulic failure is projected to increase from a contemporary rate of 5.7% to 10.1-11.3% under future climate scenarios, and, crucially, elevated CO2 provided only slight amelioration. By contrast, elevated CO2 mitigated GPP reductions. We attribute a greater variation in hydraulic failure risk to trait assemblages than to either CO2 or climate. Our results project forests with both faster growth (through productivity increases) and higher mortality rates (through increasing rates of hydraulic failure) in the neo-tropics accompanied by certain trait plant assemblages becoming nonviable.

Local carbon reserves are insufficient for phloem terpene induction during drought in Pinus edulis in response to bark beetle-associated fungi.

Stomatal closure during drought inhibits carbon uptake and may reduce a tree's defensive capacity. Limited carbon availability during drought may increase a tree's mortality risk, particularly if drought constrains trees' capacity to rapidly produce defenses during biotic attack. We parameterized a new model of conifer defense using physiological data on carbon reserves and chemical defenses before and after a simulated bark beetle attack in mature Pinus edulis under experimental drought. Attack was simulated using inoculations with a consistent bluestain fungus (Ophiostoma sp.) of Ips confusus, the main bark beetle colonizing this tree, to induce a defensive response. Trees with more carbon reserves produced more defenses but measured phloem carbon reserves only accounted for c. 23% of the induced defensive response. Our model predicted universal mortality if local reserves alone supported defense production, suggesting substantial remobilization and transport of stored resin or carbon reserves to the inoculation site. Our results show that de novo terpene synthesis represents only a fraction of the total measured phloem terpenes in P. edulis following fungal inoculation. Without direct attribution of phloem terpene concentrations to available carbon, many studies may be overestimating the scale and importance of de novo terpene synthesis in a tree's induced defense response.

The impacts of rising vapour pressure deficit in natural and managed ecosystems.

An exponential rise in the atmospheric vapour pressure deficit (VPD) is among the most consequential impacts of climate change in terrestrial ecosystems. Rising VPD has negative and cascading effects on nearly all aspects of plant function including photosynthesis, water status, growth and survival. These responses are exacerbated by land-atmosphere interactions that couple VPD to soil water and govern the evolution of drought, affecting a range of ecosystem services including carbon uptake, biodiversity, the provisioning of water resources and crop yields. However, despite the global nature of this phenomenon, research on how to incorporate these impacts into resilient management regimes is largely in its infancy, due in part to the entanglement of VPD trends with those of other co-evolving climate drivers. Here, we review the mechanistic bases of VPD impacts at a range of spatial scales, paying particular attention to the independent and interactive influence of VPD in the context of other environmental changes. We then evaluate the consequences of these impacts within key management contexts, including water resources, croplands, wildfire risk mitigation and management of natural grasslands and forests. We conclude with recommendations describing how management regimes could be altered to mitigate the otherwise highly deleterious consequences of rising VPD.

Short-Term Groundwater Level Fluctuations Drive Subsurface Redox Variability.

As global change processes modify the extent and functions of terrestrial-aquatic interfaces, the variability of critical and dynamic transitional zones between wetlands and uplands increases. However, it is still unclear how fluctuating water levels at these dynamic boundaries alter groundwater biogeochemical cycling. Here, we used high-temporal resolution data along gradients from wetlands to uplands and during fluctuating water levels at freshwater coastal areas to capture spatiotemporal patterns of groundwater redox potential (Eh). We observed that topography influences groundwater Eh that is higher in uplands than in wetlands; however, the high variability within TAI zones challenged the establishment of distinct redox zonation. Declining water levels generally decreased Eh, but most locations exhibited significant Eh variability, which is associated with rare instances of short-term water level fluctuations, introducing oxygen. The Eh-oxygen relationship showed distinct hysteresis patterns, reflecting redox poising capacity at higher Eh, maintaining more oxidizing states longer than the dissolved oxygen presence. Surprisingly, we observed more frequent oxidizing states in transitional areas and wetlands than in uplands. We infer that occasional oxygen entering specific wetland-upland boundaries acts as critical biogeochemical control points. High-resolution data can capture such rare yet significant biogeochemical instances, supporting redox-informed models and advancing the predictability of climate change feedback.

Storage of carbon reserves in spruce trees is prioritized over growth in the face of carbon limitation.

Climate change is expected to pose a global threat to forest health by intensifying extreme events like drought and insect attacks. Carbon allocation is a fundamental process that determines the adaptive responses of long-lived late-maturing organisms like trees to such stresses. However, our mechanistic understanding of how trees coordinate and set allocation priorities among different sinks (e.g., growth and storage) under severe source limitation remains limited. Using flux measurements, isotopic tracing, targeted metabolomics, and transcriptomics, we investigated how limitation of source supply influences sink activity, particularly growth and carbon storage, and their relative regulation in Norway spruce (Picea abies) clones. During photosynthetic deprivation, absolute rates of respiration, growth, and allocation to storage all decline. When trees approach neutral carbon balance, i.e., daytime net carbon gain equals nighttime carbon loss, genes encoding major enzymes of metabolic pathways remain relatively unaffected. However, under negative carbon balance, photosynthesis and growth are down-regulated while sucrose and starch biosynthesis pathways are up-regulated, indicating that trees prioritize carbon allocation to storage over growth. Moreover, trees under negative carbon balance actively increase the turnover rate of starch, lipids, and amino acids, most likely to support respiration and mitigate stress. Our study provides molecular evidence that trees faced with severe photosynthetic limitation strategically regulate storage allocation and consumption at the expense of growth. Understanding such allocation strategies is crucial for predicting how trees may respond to extreme events involving steep declines in photosynthesis, like severe drought, or defoliation by heat waves, late frost, or insect attack.

Fermentation-mediated growth, signaling, and defense in plants.

While traditionally considered important mainly in hypoxic roots during flooding, upregulation of fermentation pathways in plants has recently been described as an evolutionarily conserved drought survival strategy, with acetate signaling mediating reprograming of transcription and cellular carbon and energy metabolism from roots to leaves. The amount of acetate produced directly correlates with survival through potential mechanisms including defense gene activation, biosynthesis of primary and secondary metabolites, and aerobic respiration. Here, we review root ethanolic fermentation responses to hypoxia during saturated soil conditions and summarize studies highlighting acetate fermentation under aerobic conditions coupled with respiration during growth and drought responses. Recent work is discussed demonstrating long-distance transport of acetate via the transpiration stream as a respiratory substrate. While maintenance and growth respiration are often modeled separately in terrestrial models, here we propose the concept of 'Defense Respiration' fueled by acetate fermentation in which upregulation of acetate fermentation contributes acetate substrate for alternative energy production via aerobic respiration, biosynthesis of primary and secondary metabolites, and the acetylation of proteins involved in defense gene regulation. Finally, we highlight new frontiers in leaf-atmosphere emission measurements as a potential way to study acetate fermentation responses of individual leaves, branches, ecosystems, and regions.

The role of height-driven constraints and compensations on tree vulnerability to drought.

Frequent observations of higher mortality in larger trees than in smaller ones during droughts have sparked an increasing interest in size-dependent drought-induced mortality. However, the underlying physiological mechanisms are not well understood, with height-associated hydraulic constraints often being implied as the potential mechanism driving increased drought vulnerability. We performed a quantitative synthesis on how key traits that drive plant water and carbon economy change with tree height within species and assessed the implications that the different constraints and compensations may have on the interacting mechanisms (hydraulic failure, carbon starvation and/or biotic-agent attacks) affecting tree vulnerability to drought. While xylem tension increases with tree height, taller trees present a range of structural and functional adjustments, including more efficient water use and transport and greater water uptake and storage capacity, that mitigate the path-length-associated drop in water potential. These adaptations allow taller trees to withstand episodic water stress. Conclusive evidence for height-dependent increased vulnerability to hydraulic failure and carbon starvation, and their coupling to defence mechanisms and pest and pathogen dynamics, is still lacking. Further research is needed, particularly at the intraspecific level, to ascertain the specific conditions and thresholds above which height hinders tree survival under drought.