Response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to past and future climate change.

The East Antarctic Ice Sheet contains the vast majority of Earth's glacier ice (about 52 metres sea-level equivalent), but is often viewed as less vulnerable to global warming than the West Antarctic or Greenland ice sheets. However, some regions of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet have lost mass over recent decades, prompting the need to re-evaluate its sensitivity to climate change. Here we review the response of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to past warm periods, synthesize current observations of change and evaluate future projections. Some marine-based catchments that underwent notable mass loss during past warm periods are losing mass at present but most projections indicate increased accumulation across the East Antarctic Ice Sheet over the twenty-first century, keeping the ice sheet broadly in balance. Beyond 2100, high-emissions scenarios generate increased ice discharge and potentially several metres of sea-level rise within just a few centuries, but substantial mass loss could be averted if the Paris Agreement to limit warming below 2 degrees Celsius is satisfied.

Observing and Modeling Ice Sheet Surface Mass Balance.

Surface mass balance (SMB) provides mass input to the surface of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets and therefore comprises an important control on ice sheet mass balance and resulting contribution to global sea level change. As ice sheet SMB varies highly across multiple scales of space (meters to hundreds of kilometers) and time (hourly to decadal), it is notoriously challenging to observe and represent in models. In addition, SMB consists of multiple components, all of which depend on complex interactions between the atmosphere and the snow/ice surface, large-scale atmospheric circulation and ocean conditions, and ice sheet topography. In this review, we present the state-of-the-art knowledge and recent advances in ice sheet SMB observations and models, highlight current shortcomings, and propose future directions. Novel observational methods allow mapping SMB across larger areas, longer time periods, and/or at very high (subdaily) temporal frequency. As a recent observational breakthrough, cosmic ray counters provide direct estimates of SMB, circumventing the need for accurate snow density observations upon which many other techniques rely. Regional atmospheric climate models have drastically improved their simulation of ice sheet SMB in the last decade, thanks to the inclusion or improved representation of essential processes (e.g., clouds, blowing snow, and snow albedo), and by enhancing horizontal resolution (5-30 km). Future modeling efforts are required in improving Earth system models to match regional atmospheric climate model performance in simulating ice sheet SMB, and in reinforcing the efforts in developing statistical and dynamic downscaling to represent smaller-scale SMB processes.

Microwave Radiometry at Frequencies From 500 to 1400 MHz: An Emerging Technology for Earth Observations.

Microwave radiometry has provided valuable spaceborne observations of Earth's geophysical properties for decades. The recent SMOS, Aquarius, and SMAP satellites have demonstrated the value of measurements at 1400 MHz for observing surface soil moisture, sea surface salinity, sea ice thickness, soil freeze/thaw state, and other geophysical variables. However, the information obtained is limited by penetration through the subsurface at 1400 MHz and by a reduced sensitivity to surface salinity in cold or wind-roughened waters. Recent airborne experiments have shown the potential of brightness temperature measurements from 500-1400 MHz to address these limitations by enabling sensing of soil moisture and sea ice thickness to greater depths, sensing of temperature deep within ice sheets, improved sensing of sea salinity in cold waters, and enhanced sensitivity to soil moisture under vegetation canopies. However, the absence of significant spectrum reserved for passive microwave measurements in the 500-1400 MHz band requires both an opportunistic sensing strategy and systems for reducing the impact of radio-frequency interference. Here, we summarize the potential advantages and applications of 500-1400 MHz microwave radiometry for Earth observation and review recent experiments and demonstrations of these concepts. We also describe the remaining questions and challenges to be addressed in advancing to future spaceborne operation of this technology along with recommendations for future research activities.

Interannual variations in meltwater input to the Southern Ocean from Antarctic ice shelves.

Ocean-driven basal melting of Antarctica's floating ice shelves accounts for about half of their mass loss in steady-state, where gains in ice shelf mass are balanced by losses. Ice shelf thickness changes driven by varying basal melt rates modulate mass loss from the grounded ice sheet and its contribution to sea level, and the changing meltwater fluxes influence climate processes in the Southern Ocean. Existing continent-wide melt rate datasets have no temporal variability, introducing uncertainties in sea level and climate projections. Here, we combine surface height data from satellite radar altimeters with satellite-derived ice velocities and a new model of firn-layer evolution to generate a high-resolution map of time-averaged (2010-2018) basal melt rates, and time series (1994-2018) of meltwater fluxes for most ice shelves. Total basal meltwater flux in 1994 (1090±150 Gt/yr) was not significantly different from the steady-state value (1100±60 Gt/yr), but increased to 1570±140 Gt/yr in 2009, followed by a decline to 1160±150 Gt/yr in 2018. For the four largest "cold-water" ice shelves we partition meltwater fluxes into deep and shallow sources to reveal distinct signatures of temporal variability, providing insights into climate forcing of basal melting and the impact of this melting on the Southern Ocean.

Pervasive ice sheet mass loss reflects competing ocean and atmosphere processes.

Quantifying changes in Earth's ice sheets and identifying the climate drivers are central to improving sea level projections. We provide unified estimates of grounded and floating ice mass change from 2003 to 2019 using NASA's Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) and ICESat-2 satellite laser altimetry. Our data reveal patterns likely linked to competing climate processes: Ice loss from coastal Greenland (increased surface melt), Antarctic ice shelves (increased ocean melting), and Greenland and Antarctic outlet glaciers (dynamic response to ocean melting) was partially compensated by mass gains over ice sheet interiors (increased snow accumulation). Losses outpaced gains, with grounded-ice loss from Greenland (200 billion tonnes per year) and Antarctica (118 billion tonnes per year) contributing 14 millimeters to sea level. Mass lost from West Antarctica's ice shelves accounted for more than 30% of that region's total.

A Multilayer Surface Temperature, Surface Albedo and Water Vapor Product of Greenland from MODIS.

A multilayer, daily ice-surface temperature (IST)-albedo-water vapor product of Greenland, extending from March 2000 through December 2016, has been developed using standard MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data products from the Terra satellite. To meet the needs of the ice sheet modeling community, this new Earth Science Data Record (ESDR) is provided in a polar stereographic projection in NetCDF format, and includes the existing standard MODIS Collection-6.1 IST and derived melt maps, and Collection 6 snow albedo and water vapor maps, along with ancillary data, and is provided at a spatial resolution of ~0.78 km. This ESDR enables relationships between IST, surface melt, albedo and water vapor to be evaluated easily. We show examples of the components of the ESDR and describe some uses of the ESDR such as for comparison with skin temperature, albedo and water vapor output from Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). Additionally we show validation of the MODIS IST using in situ and aircraft data, and validation of MERRA-2 skin temperature maps using MODIS IST and in situ data. The ESDR has been assigned a DOI and will be available through the National Snow and Ice Data Center by the summer of 2018.

Marine ice sheet collapse potentially under way for the Thwaites Glacier Basin, West Antarctica.

Resting atop a deep marine basin, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has long been considered prone to instability. Using a numerical model, we investigated the sensitivity of Thwaites Glacier to ocean melt and whether its unstable retreat is already under way. Our model reproduces observed losses when forced with ocean melt comparable to estimates. Simulated losses are moderate (<0.25 mm per year at sea level) over the 21st century but generally increase thereafter. Except possibly for the lowest-melt scenario, the simulations indicate that early-stage collapse has begun. Less certain is the time scale, with the onset of rapid (>1 mm per year of sea-level rise) collapse in the different simulations within the range of 200 to 900 years.