Helicobacter pylori seropositivity is associated with antinuclear antibodies in US adults, NHANES 1999-2000.

Infectious diseases, such as Helicobacter pylori, which produce systemic inflammation may be one key factor in the onset of autoimmunity. The association between H. pylori and antinuclear antibodies (ANA), a marker of autoimmunity, has been understudied. Data from the 1999-2000 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were used to evaluate the cross-sectional association between H. pylori seroprevalence and ANA positivity in US adults aged ≥20 years. ANA was measured in a 1:80 dilution of sera by indirect immunofluorescence using HEp-2 cells (positive ⩾3). H. pylori immunoglobulin G enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays were used to categorise individuals as seropositive or seronegative. H. pylori seropositivity and ANA positivity were common in the adult US population, with estimated prevalences of 33.3% and 9.9%, respectively. Both were associated with increasing age. H. pylori seropositivity was associated with higher odds of ANA (prevalence odds ratio = 1.89, 95% confidence interval = 1.08-3.33), adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, educational attainment and body mass index. H. pylori infection may be one key factor in the loss of self-tolerance, contributing to immune dysfunction.

The impact of pathogen burden on leukocyte telomere length in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

Several infections have been linked to telomere shortening and in some cases these associations have varied by sex. We assessed the association between seropositivity to four persistent pathogens (cytomegalovirus (CMV), herpes simplex virus-1, Helicobacter pylori, Chlamydia pneumoniae), and total pathogen burden on leukocyte telomere length in a diverse US sample. Data came from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, a population-based cohort study. We utilized cross-sectional survey data, and biological samples from participants tested for pathogens and telomere length (N = 163). Linear regression was used to examine the association between seropositivity for individual pathogens as well as total pathogen burden and telomere length, adjusting for various confounders. CMV seropositivity and increased total pathogen burden level were significantly associated with shorter telomere length among females (ß = -0·1204 (standard error (s.e.) 0·06), P = 0·044) and (ß = -0·1057 (s.e. = 0·05), P = 0·033), respectively. There was no statistically significant association among males. Our findings suggest that prevention or treatment of persistent pathogens, in particular CMV, may play an important role in reducing telomere shortening over the life course among women. Future research is needed to confirm these novel findings in larger longitudinal samples.

[Historic treasures of Swiss horse breeding]. / Historische Preziosen der Schweizer Pferdezucht.

INTRODUCTION: Both a mandate of the Bernese Government (1705) and statements in the Georgica Helvetica of 1706 prove that Swiss horse breeding was lucrative and of good quality at that time. However, the political turmoil at the transition from the 18th to 19th century and excessive sales to France and Italy led to a severe drop in quantity as well in quality. The exhibition of horses in Aarau in 1865 showed a wretched state of the material. In the same year, Rudolf Zangger wrote a guide for the discussion of horse breeding in Switzerland. In the following year (1866), Johann Jakob Rychner published a report on horse breeding, and a further treatise on Swiss horse breeding by Johann Heinrich Hirzel followed in 1883. These publications created good and comprehensive fundamentals, which can still be considered valid. However history shows that the results and recommendations of these analyses barely led to improvements. Todays genomics with their possibilities open up a new era of animal breeding and raise bigger demands than ever.

Un mandat du gouvernement bernois de 1705 et les explications de Georgica helvetica de 1706 nous montrent la bonne qualité et la valeur économique de l'élevage chevalin de l'époque. Les troubles politiques à la fin du 18ème siècle et les exportations d'un nombre trop élevé de chevaux vers la France et l'Italie ont eu comme conséquence une perte de la valeur génétique et une diminution du nombre des chevaux. L'exposition chevaline de Aarau en 1865 a montré un triste état de la situation. Pendant la même année, Rudolf Zangger a publié des réflexions sur l'élevage chevalin en Suisse et, une année plus tard, Johann Jakob Rychner en faisait de même. En 1883, Johann Heinrich Hirzel a fait paraître ses propositions sur l'élevage chevalin. Aujourd'hui encore, le contenu de ces publications peut être considéré comme actuel. Une rétrospective montre que ces analyses et les propositions d'améliorations n'ont eu que peu de résultats. Les possibilités actuelles de la génomique ouvrent une nouvelle ère pour l'élevage et représentent un vrai défi pour l'avenir.

Scenario simulations of future salinity and ecological consequences in the Baltic Sea and adjacent North Sea areas-implications for environmental monitoring.

Substantial ecological changes occurred in the 1970s in the Northern Baltic during a temporary period of low salinity (S). This period was preceded by an episodic increase in the rainfall over the Baltic Sea watershed area. Several climate models, both global and regional, project an increase in the runoff of the Northern latitudes due to proceeding climate change. The aim of this study is to model, firstly, the effects on Baltic Sea salinity of increased runoff due to projected global change and, secondly, the effects of salinity change on the distribution of marine species. The results suggest a critical shift in the S range 5-7, which is a threshold for both freshwater and marine species distributions and diversity. We discuss several topics emphasizing future monitoring, modelling, and fisheries research. Environmental monitoring and modelling are investigated because the developing alternative ecosystems do not necessarily show the same relations to environment quality factors as the retiring ones. An important corollary is that the observed and modelled S changes considered together with species' ranges indicate what may appear under a future climate. Consequences could include a shift in distribution areas of marine benthic foundation species and some 40-50 other species, affiliated to these. This change would extend over hundreds of kilometres, in the Baltic Sea and the adjacent North Sea areas. Potential cascading effects, in coastal ecology, fish ecology and fisheries would be extensive, and point out the necessity to develop further the "ecosystem approach in the environmental monitoring".

The potential of current- and wind-driven transport for environmental management of the Baltic Sea.

The ever increasing impact of the marine industry and transport on vulnerable sea areas puts the marine environment under exceptional pressure and calls for inspired methods for mitigating the impact of the related risks. We describe a method for preventive reduction of remote environmental risks caused by the shipping and maritime industry that are transported by surface currents and wind impact to the coasts. This method is based on characterizing systematically the damaging potential of the offshore areas in terms of potential transport to vulnerable regions of an oil spill or other pollution that has occurred in a particular area. The resulting maps of probabilities of pollution to be transported to the nearshore and the time it takes for the pollution to reach the nearshore are used to design environmentally optimized fairways for the Gulf of Finland, Baltic Proper, and south-western Baltic Sea.

Ensemble modeling of the Baltic Sea ecosystem to provide scenarios for management.

We present a multi-model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea, and investigate the combined impact of changing climate, external nutrient supply, and fisheries on the marine ecosystem. The applied regional climate system model contains state-of-the-art component models for the atmosphere, sea ice, ocean, land surface, terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry, and marine food-web. Time-dependent scenario simulations for the period 1960-2100 are performed and uncertainties of future projections are estimated. In addition, reconstructions since 1850 are carried out to evaluate the models sensitivity to external stressors on long time scales. Information from scenario simulations are used to support decision-makers and stakeholders and to raise awareness of climate change, environmental problems, and possible abatement strategies among the general public using geovisualization. It is concluded that the study results are relevant for the Baltic Sea Action Plan of the Helsinki Commission.

Echoes from the past: a healthy Baltic Sea requires more effort.

Integrated sediment multiproxy studies and modeling were used to reconstruct past changes in the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Results of natural changes over the past 6000 years in the Baltic Sea ecosystem suggest that forecasted climate warming might enhance environmental problems of the Baltic Sea. Integrated modeling and sediment proxy studies reveal increased sea surface temperatures and expanded seafloor anoxia (in deep basins) during earlier natural warm climate phases, such as the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Under future IPCC scenarios of global warming, there is likely no improvement of bottom water conditions in the Baltic Sea. Thus, the measures already designed to produce a healthier Baltic Sea are insufficient in the long term. The interactions between climate change and anthropogenic impacts on the Baltic Sea should be considered in management, implementation of policy strategies in the Baltic Sea environmental issues, and adaptation to future climate change.

[Matthias Anker and the foal]. / Matthias Anker und das Fohlen.

In 1828, the Society of Swiss Veterinarians (GST) raised a prize question in regard to the symptoms, etiology and prophylaxis of polyarthritis in the foal. The treatise of Matthias Anker on this subject was treated with distinction and published in 1830. His statements answered both the questions to the clinical aspects and referred also to epidemiological, pathological, economical and ethical issues as well as husbandry and relations with the breeders. The comprehensive article of Anker in a lucid language and obliging views still finds great interest today, as the septicemia is one of the big problems in stud medicine now as before. Moreover it is astonishing that the recommendations of Anker were disregarded too often. The reasons for this fact may be due to the inadequate transfer of knowledge, on the one hand because of the educational system in that time, on the other side due to the modest economical importance of horse breeding and the neglected formation in this field. The recommendations are still valid.

[Cost-benefit analysis of an intervention to improve udder health in Swiss dairy farms]. / Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse einer Intervention zur Verbesserung der Eutergesundheit in Schweizer Milchviehbetrieben.

The objective of this study was to calculate the national costs associated with udder health in Switzerland and to estimate the cost effectiveness of an udder health intervention program. In 49 farms, yearly mastitis associated costs before and during an intervention were collected at herd level. Costs were calculated for each lactating cow being present in the herd. At the beginning of the intervention, 24 farms received a report with recommendations to improve the udder health. In the following year, those herds were followed-up by their veterinarian at a monthly basis. The other 25 farms were used as a negative control group and neither received any recommendations nor any follow-up. In the first year of analysis (2010), the median udder health associated costs were 209.- Swiss Francs for each lactating cow, regardless of the intervention group. During the intervention period (2012), mastitis associated costs were 191.- Swiss Francs for control farms and 396.- Swiss Francs for farms with veterinary intervention on a monthly basis. The median additional costs for herds with intervention were 159.- Swiss Francs per lactating cow. At the national level, mastitis associated costs were estimated at 129.4 millions of Swiss Francs per year. The cost effectiveness of future mastitis control programs can be evaluated with the help of the deterministic model developed during this study.

Le but du présent travail était de calculer les coûts de la santé de la mamelle dans des exploitations laitières suisses et d'estimer l'efficacité économique d'une intervention en vue de l'améliorer. Pour cela on a relevé les coûts liés aux mammites sur une année dans 49 exploitations, et cela durant l'année précédant l'intervention puis dans l'année de l'intervention et on l'a divisé par le nombre de vaches en lactation. Vingt-quatre exploitations ont reçu au début de l'étude des recommandations en vue d'améliorer la santé de la mamelle et ont ensuite été suivies mensuellement durant une année par leur vétérinaire d'exploitation. Les 25 autres exploitations n'ont reçu aucune recommandation et ont été utilisées comme groupe de contrôle. Dans la première année d'analyse (2 ans avant l'intervention, 2010), les coûts moyens de la santé de la mamelle, indépendamment du groupe s'élevaient à CHF 209.­ par vache en lactation. Durant l'année de l'intervention, ils se montaient à CHF 191.­ pour les exploitations de contrôle contre CHF 396.- pour les exploitations suivies. Les dépenses supplémentaires durant l'intervention s'élevaient en moyenne à CHF 159.­ par vache en lactation. Au niveau national, on estime les coûts liés aux mammites à CHF 129.4 millions. Les modèles de calcul utilisés dans la présente étude permettent de juger à l'avenir de la rentabilité des programmes de contrôle des mammites.

Future climate change and marine heatwaves - Projected impact on key habitats for herring reproduction.

This study explores the impact of global climate targets on sea surface temperatures and marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the Baltic Sea. We further evaluate potential adverse climate effects on the reproductive success of the western Baltic Sea (WBS) herring stock, which underwent a dramatic decline during the past two decades. For this, we use refined ensemble climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. For the WBS herring spawning ground, the number of MHW days nearly triples from 34 days/year in the historical period, to 102 days/year already under the optimistic 1.5 °C target of global climate warming (Paris, 2015) and further increases at a rate of 36 to 48 [days yr-1]/0.5 °C beyond the 1.5 °C target. The average MHW surface extent more than doubles in the 1.5 °C target from ~8 % to 21 % in this area. This study finds the phenological winter climate considerably altered in response to future global warming and more frequent MHW days in the WBS. The winter duration reduces by ~25 % already in the 2.0 °C target but by ~60 % in the 4.0 °C target compared to the historical climate. Winter inceptions/terminations occur successively later/earlier and the share of missed winters, i.e. winters unsuitable to support herring reproductive success, increases by up to ~70 %. Days with heat stress on the cardiac function of herring larvae will likewise increase and occur earlier in the year. Consequently, the early life cycle of herring will face more often winter conditions that were unprecedented during the historical past, and the risk for future reproductive failure will increase. However, our results reveal that abiotic disturbances for the marine ecosystem can be partly mitigated if global warming remains compliant with the 1.5 °C target.

The massive 2016 marine heatwave in the Southwest Pacific: An "El Niño-Madden-Julian Oscillation" compound event.

El Niño typically induces cooling in the Southwest Pacific Ocean during austral summers, usually leading to decreased marine heatwave frequency and severity. However, the 2016 extreme El Niño unexpectedly coincided with the longest and most extensive marine heatwave ever recorded in the region. This heatwave, spanning over 1.7 million square kilometers, persisting for 24 days with a peak intensity of 1.5°C, resulted in massive coral bleaching and fish mortality. This exceptional warming resulted from anomalously strong shortwave radiation and reduced heat loss via latent heat fluxes, owing to low wind speed and increased air humidity. These anomalies are attributed to a rare combined event "Madden-Julian Oscillation and extreme El Niño." Following 10 February, the rapid dissipation of this marine heatwave results from the most intense cyclone ever recorded in the South Pacific. The hazardous ecological impacts of this extreme event highlight the needs for improving our understanding of marine heatwave-driving mechanisms that may result in better seasonal predictions.

A climate vulnerability assessment of the fish community in the Western Baltic Sea.

Marine fisheries are increasingly impacted by climate change, affecting species distribution and productivity, and necessitating urgent adaptation efforts. Climate vulnerability assessments (CVA), integrating expert knowledge, are vital for identifying species that could thrive or suffer under changing environmental conditions. This study presents a first CVA for the Western Baltic Sea's fish community, a crucial fishing area for Denmark and Germany. Characterized by a unique mix of marine, brackish, and freshwater species, this coastal ecosystem faces significant changes due to the combined effects of overfishing, eutrophication and climate change. Our CVA involved a qualitative expert scoring of 22 fish species, assessing their sensitivity and exposure to climate change. Our study revealed a dichotomy in climate change vulnerability within the fish community of the Western Baltic Sea because traditional fishing targets cod and herring as well as other species with complex life histories are considered to face increased risks, whereas invasive or better adaptable species might thrive under changing conditions. Our findings hence demonstrate the complex interplay between life-history traits and climate change vulnerability in marine fish communities. Eventually, our study provides critical knowledge for the urgent development of tailored adaptation efforts addressing existing but especially future effects of climate change on fish and fisheries in the Western Baltic Sea, to navigate this endangered fisheries systems into a sustainable future.

Combined effects of global climate change and regional ecosystem drivers on an exploited marine food web.

Changes in climate, in combination with intensive exploitation of marine resources, have caused large-scale reorganizations in many of the world's marine ecosystems during the past decades. The Baltic Sea in Northern Europe is one of the systems most affected. In addition to being exposed to persistent eutrophication, intensive fishing, and one of the world's fastest rates of warming in the last two decades of the 20th century, accelerated climate change including atmospheric warming and changes in precipitation is projected for this region during the 21st century. Here, we used a new multimodel approach to project how the interaction of climate, nutrient loads, and cod fishing may affect the future of the open Central Baltic Sea food web. Regionally downscaled global climate scenarios were, in combination with three nutrient load scenarios, used to drive an ensemble of three regional biogeochemical models (BGMs). An Ecopath with Ecosim food web model was then forced with the BGM results from different nutrient-climate scenarios in combination with two different cod fishing scenarios. The results showed that regional management is likely to play a major role in determining the future of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. By the end of the 21st century, for example, the combination of intensive cod fishing and high nutrient loads projected a strongly eutrophicated and sprat-dominated ecosystem, whereas low cod fishing in combination with low nutrient loads resulted in a cod-dominated ecosystem with eutrophication levels close to present. Also, nonlinearities were observed in the sensitivity of different trophic groups to nutrient loads or fishing depending on the combination of the two. Finally, many climate variables and species biomasses were projected to levels unseen in the past. Hence, the risk for ecological surprises needs to be addressed, particularly when the results are discussed in the ecosystem-based management context.

Modeling nutrient transports and exchanges of nutrients between shallow regions and the open Baltic sea in present and future climate.

We quantified horizontal transport patterns and the net exchange of nutrients between shallow regions and the open sea in the Baltic proper. A coupled biogeochemical-physical circulation model was used for transient simulations 1961-2100. The model was driven by regional downscaling of the IPCC climate change scenario A1B from two global General Circulation Models in combination with two nutrient load scenarios. Modeled nutrient transports followed mainly the large-scale internal water circulation and showed only small circulation changes in the future projections. The internal nutrient cycling and exchanges between shallow and deeper waters became intensified, and the internal removal of phosphorus became weaker in the warmer future climate. These effects counteracted the impact from nutrient load reductions according to the Baltic Sea Action Plan. The net effect of climate change and nutrient reductions was an increased net import of dissolved inorganic phosphorus to shallow areas in the Baltic proper.

Extremes of temperature, oxygen and blooms in the Baltic sea in a changing climate.

In the future, the Baltic Sea ecosystem will be impacted both by climate change and by riverine and atmospheric nutrient inputs. Multi-model ensemble simulations comprising one IPCC scenario (A1B), two global climate models, two regional climate models, and three Baltic Sea ecosystem models were performed to elucidate the combined effect of climate change and changes in nutrient inputs. This study focuses on the occurrence of extreme events in the projected future climate. Results suggest that the number of days favoring cyanobacteria blooms could increase, anoxic events may become more frequent and last longer, and salinity may tend to decrease. Nutrient load reductions following the Baltic Sea Action Plan can reduce the deterioration of oxygen conditions.

Impact of climate change on fish population dynamics in the Baltic sea: a dynamical downscaling investigation.

Understanding how climate change, exploitation and eutrophication will affect populations and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea can be facilitated with models which realistically combine these forcings into common frameworks. Here, we evaluate sensitivity of fish recruitment and population dynamics to past and future environmental forcings provided by three ocean-biogeochemical models of the Baltic Sea. Modeled temperature explained nearly as much variability in reproductive success of sprat (Sprattus sprattus; Clupeidae) as measured temperatures during 1973-2005, and both the spawner biomass and the temperature have influenced recruitment for at least 50 years. The three Baltic Sea models estimate relatively similar developments (increases) in biomass and fishery yield during twenty-first century climate change (ca. 28 % range among models). However, this uncertainty is exceeded by the one associated with the fish population model, and by the source of global climate data used by regional models. Knowledge of processes and biases could reduce these uncertainties.

Reconstructing the development of Baltic sea eutrophication 1850-2006.

A comprehensive reconstruction of the Baltic Sea state from 1850 to 2006 is presented: driving forces are reconstructed and the evolution of the hydrography and biogeochemical cycles is simulated using the model BALTSEM. Driven by high resolution atmospheric forcing fields (HiResAFF), BALTSEM reproduces dynamics of salinity, temperature, and maximum ice extent. Nutrient loads have been increasing with a noteworthy acceleration from the 1950s until peak values around 1980 followed by a decrease continuing up to present. BALTSEM shows a delayed response to the massive load increase with most eutrophic conditions occurring only at the end of the simulation. This is accompanied by an intensification of the pelagic cycling driven by a shift from spring to summer primary production. The simulation indicates that no improvement in water quality of the Baltic Sea compared to its present state can be expected from the decrease in nutrient loads in recent decades.

Impact of climate change on ecological quality indicators and biogeochemical fluxes in the Baltic sea: a multi-model ensemble study.

Multi-model ensemble simulations using three coupled physical-biogeochemical models were performed to calculate the combined impact of projected future climate change and plausible nutrient load changes on biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea. Climate projections for 1961-2099 were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Helsinki Commission's (HELCOM) Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). The model results suggest that in a future climate, water quality, characterized by ecological quality indicators like winter nutrient, summer bottom oxygen, and annual mean phytoplankton concentrations as well as annual mean Secchi depth (water transparency), will be deteriorated compared to present conditions. In case of nutrient load reductions required by the BSAP, water quality is only slightly improved. Based on the analysis of biogeochemical fluxes, we find that in warmer and more anoxic waters, internal feedbacks could be reinforced. Increased phosphorus fluxes out of the sediments, reduced denitrification efficiency and increased nitrogen fixation may partly counteract nutrient load abatement strategies.