Simulation of future land use/cover change (LUCC) in typical watersheds of arid regions under multiple scenarios.

The rapid development of the social economy has promoted a continuous increase in the intensity and scale of land use by humans, which has seriously affected the sustainable development of the region. It is important to understand the land use/cover change (LUCC) in the arid region and its future development trends and to make reasonable planning recommendations for the sustainable development of the ecological environment. This study validates the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model in a typical arid region, the Shiyang River Basin (SRB), and analyzes the applicability of the model in arid regions. On this basis, the PLUS model is combined with the scenario analysis method to design four scenarios including no policy intervention, farmland protection, ecological protection and sustainable development to analyze the dynamic changes in past and future land use in the SRB and to make corresponding planning recommendations for the development of each type of land use in the arid region. The results showed that the PLUS model had a better simulation effect in the SRB (its overall accuracy reached 0.97). Coupled models obtain better simulation results than quantitative and spatial models by comparing the mainstream models, with PLUS model that combines CA model and patch generation strategy showing better simulation results in the same category. From 1987 to 2017, the spatial centroid of each LUCC in the SRB moved to varying degrees due to a continuous increase in human activities. The spatial centroid of water bodies had the most obvious change, with a moving speed of 1.49 km/a, while the moving speed of built-up land increased year by year. The spatial centroid of farmland, built-up land and unused land all shifted toward the middle and lower plains, which is a further indication of increased human activity. Due to different government policies, the development trend of land use was also different under different scenarios. However, the four scenarios all showed that the area of built-up land will be increasing exponentially from 2017 to 2037, which would seriously affect the surrounding ecological land and have a negative impact on the local agro-ecological environment. Therefore, we proposed the following planning recommendations: (1) Land leveling work should be carried out on scattered farmland located at high altitudes and with slopes over 25°. Additionally, the land use of low-altitude areas should strictly adhere to basic farmland, increase the diversification of cropping patterns and improve the efficiency of agricultural water. (2) The relationship between ecology, farmland and cities should be reasonably coordinated and the existing idle built-up land should be efficiently used. (3) Forestland and grassland resources should be strictly protected and the ecological redline should be strictly observed. This study can provide new ideas for LUCC modeling and prediction in other parts of the world and provide a strong basis for ecological management and sustainable development in arid areas.

Assessing the sustainability of ecosystems over fourteen years of cultivation in Longnan City of China based on emergy analysis method.

Currently, the contradiction between the limited resources of China's cultivated ecosystems and population growth is becoming increasingly evident, and the negative impacts on the environment and human activities need to be curbed. Therefore, it is crucial to quantify the sustainability of cultivated ecosystems and determine these driving factors that affect their development. This study used the emergy method to quantify the input/output flow and sustainable development of the cultivated land ecosystem in Longnan City, combined with the logarithmic mean divisia index decomposition analysis (LMDI) method to evaluate the driving factors of sustainable development in the region. The results demonstrate that from 2004 to 2017, the total emergy input and output of Longnan City showed an upward trend, and non-renewable resources (N) were always in a dominant state in the total emergy (T) input, and their proportion rose from 59.69% to 66.92%. The emergy sustainability index (ESI) is less than 1, and the environmental pressure of the system is relatively higher. Comprehensive emergy production ratio (EPR), emergy investment ratio (EIR), the renewable fraction (R%), emergy yield ratio (EYR) and environmental load ratio (ELR), showed that the agricultural ecological economy in Longnan still has great development potential, and clean energy should be developed as far as possible to replace fossil fuels in future planning. LMDI results showed that the intensity factor ΔY'A is the main driving factor for the positive development of ESI. The government's ecological protection requirements can reduce waste emissions through reasonable farming system and advocating the use of organic fertilizer, so as to achieve the purpose of improving crop yield. Vigorous development of green ecological agricultural production patterns can improve the sustainability of arable ecosystems. This study can provide a theoretical basis for the sustainable development of cultivated ecosystems and the formulation of related agricultural production measures.

Pollution characteristics of soil heavy metals around two typical copper mining and beneficiation enterprises in Northwest China.

In order to investigate the situation of heavy metal pollution in the heavy metal industry in Gansu Province, a large copper mining province, two large and typical copper mining and beneficiation enterprises with differences in topographic features, climatic conditions, and soil types were selected as the target of this study based on similar ore types and beneficiation processes. Around these two enterprises, geochemical baselines of the six heavy metals were established, while the degree of local soil heavy metal pollution and potential hazards to humans were assessed based on statistical analysis, single-factor and multi-factor index analysis, and health risk evaluation models. In addition, Spearman's correlation analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis were used to explore the intrinsic association between each heavy metal in the two mining industries to reveal the pattern of soil heavy metal pollution in the copper mining and beneficiation industry and to propose targeted measures to improve and prevent soil heavy metal pollution. The results showed that the heavy metal pollution in the soil around Shengxi Mining Co., Ltd. of Subei County (SX enterprise) was higher than that around Yangba Copper Co., Ltd. of Gansu Province (YB enterprise), but the two enterprises had similar patterns of pollution, with an overall medium level of pollution. The carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks for children and adults were within acceptable limits for both enterprises. Besides, the correlation between the different heavy metals to similarity in their sources of contamination and the different degrees of association between the soil heavy metals of the two enterprises due to their environmental characteristics.