Climate-informed forecasts reveal dramatic local habitat shifts and population uncertainty for northern boreal caribou.

Most research on boreal populations of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) has been conducted in areas of high anthropogenic disturbance. However, a large portion of the species' range overlaps relatively pristine areas primarily affected by natural disturbances, such as wildfire. Climate-driven habitat change is a key concern for the conservation of boreal-dependent species, where management decisions have yet to consider knowledge from multiple ecological domains integrated into a cohesive and spatially explicit forecast of species-specific habitat and demography. We used a novel ecological forecasting framework to provide climate-sensitive projections of habitat and demography for five boreal caribou monitoring areas within the Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada, over 90 years. Importantly, we quantify uncertainty around forecasted mean values. Our results suggest habitat suitability may increase in central and southwest regions of the NWT's Taiga Plains ecozone but decrease in southern and northwestern regions driven by conversion of coniferous to deciduous forests. We do not project that boreal caribou population growth rates will change despite forecasted changes to habitat suitability. Our results emphasize the importance of efforts to protect and restore northern boreal caribou habitat despite climate uncertainty while highlighting expected spatial variations that are important considerations for local people who rely on them. An ability to reproduce previous work, and critical thought when incorporating sources of uncertainty, will be important to refine forecasts, derive management decisions, and improve conservation efficacy for northern species at risk.

PERFICT: A Re-imagined foundation for predictive ecology.

Making predictions from ecological models-and comparing them to data-offers a coherent approach to evaluate model quality, regardless of model complexity or modelling paradigm. To date, our ability to use predictions for developing, validating, updating, integrating and applying models across scientific disciplines while influencing management decisions, policies, and the public has been hampered by disparate perspectives on prediction and inadequately integrated approaches. We present an updated foundation for Predictive Ecology based on seven principles applied to ecological modelling: make frequent Predictions, Evaluate models, make models Reusable, Freely accessible and Interoperable, built within Continuous workflows that are routinely Tested (PERFICT). We outline some benefits of working with these principles: accelerating science; linking with data science; and improving science-policy integration.

HEALTH ASSESSMENT OF WILD LOWLAND TAPIRS (TAPIRUS TERRESTRIS) IN THE HIGHLY THREATENED CERRADO BIOME, BRAZIL.

Over 2 yr, we assessed the health of 35 lowland tapirs (Tapirus terrestris) in the Brazilian Cerrado (CE) biome, an area that is highly affected by human activities. This involved physical examinations, hematology and blood biochemistry, urinalysis, fecal parasitologic evaluation, microbial profiling of anatomic cavities and lesions, and serologic surveys for evidence of infectious agents. Research methods closely resembled those used in previous tapir health assessments in the Atlantic Forest (AF) and Pantanal (PA) biomes, allowing for a comparison among the three populations. Although not reaching statistical significance (P>0.05), tapirs from the CE exhibited poorer body and skin condition as compared to animals from the AF and PA. Furthermore, there were higher prevalences of dental problems and traumatic lesions as compared to those from the AF and PA. Eight of the 12 hematologic parameters evaluated and 17 of the 30 biochemical parameters differed significantly (P<0.05) between the tapirs from CE and those from the AF and PA. We isolated 24 different microbiologic strains from swabs of anatomic cavities and dermal lesions, of which five taxa had not previously been found in the AF or PA. We detected serum antibodies to Leptospira interrogans, bluetongue virus, and porcine parvovirus. Overall, our results suggested that tapirs from the CE exhibited more health abnormalities than tapirs in the AF and PA, possibly due to a greater exposure to environmental disturbances in the area.

The use of altrenogest to avoid hyperestrogenism after eCG-hCG ovulation induction in southern tigrina (Leopardus guttulus).

The goal of this study was to optimize an ovulation induction protocol for use with artificial insemination in the southern tigrina (Leopardus guttulus). The specific aims were to report the efficacy of using altrenogest, an oral progestin (Regumate, MSD Animal Health, Merck Animal Health), to suppress ovarian activity and prevent follicular hyperstimulation and hyperestrogenism after the administration of exogenous eCG and hCG. To monitor ovarian responses, fecal estrogen and progestogen metabolites were quantified by enzyme immunoassay in females before and after intramuscular administration of 200-IU eCG and 150-IU hCG in two trials, 4 months apart. During the first trial, there was no use of altrenogest, only the eCG-hCG ovulation induction protocol. In the second trial, the ovulation induction protocol was preceded by the administration of oral altrenogest for 14 days (minimum of 0.192 mg per kg per day). Altrenogest administration resulted in a suppression of follicular activity in three out of six females before eCG-hCG administration on the basis of lower mean estrogen concentrations (P < 0.05). It also resulted in four out of six females presenting lower fecal estrogen metabolite concentrations (P < 0.05) after ovulation induction, and two out of six individuals showed a reduction (P < 0.05) in postovulatory fecal progestogen metabolite concentrations, all when compared to the same female's cycles without the progestin. Fecal estrogen metabolite concentrations were closer to baseline in 50% of these individuals after altrenogest and eCG-hCG treatments when compared to basal concentrations before gonadotropins without the use of altrenogest. This study reported that use of altrenogest in southern tigrina can suppress ovarian activity and avoid hyperestrogenism after administration of eCG and hCG treatment. However, not all females responded uniformly, so more studies are needed to increase the efficacy of ovulation induction for use with artificial insemination in this species.