The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment.

Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.

Changing hafnium speciation in aqueous sulfate solutions: a high-energy X-ray scattering study.

The relationship of solution speciation and the structures of corresponding precipitates is examined for an aqueous Hf(4+) sulfate series. High-energy X-ray scattering (HEXS) and Raman spectroscopy data are used to probe atomic correlations in solutions. Hf(4+) in acidic perchlorate solution shows no evidence of a mononuclear metal species but instead has a peak in the pair-distribution function (PDF), generated from the HEXS data, at 3.55 Å, indicating Hf(4+)-Hf(4+) solution correlations. The peak intensity is consistent with clusters that are, on average, larger than the tetramic unit [M4(OH)8(H2O)16](8+) usually attributed to Zr(4+) and Hf(4+) solution speciation under these conditions. Addition of sulfate results in a breakup of hydroxo-bridged oligomers into sulfate-capped dimers and, for higher concentrations, Hf-sulfate monomers. The bidentate coordination mode of sulfate dominates the dissolved precursors, although it is not found in the structure of the final crystallized product, which instead is comprised of bridging-bidentate sulfate ligation. Neither the PDF patterns nor the Raman spectra show any evidence of the larger oligomers, such as the octadecameric metal clusters, found in similar Zr(4+) solutions. The oligomeric units found in solution provide insights into possible assembly routes for crystallization. In addition to expanding our understanding of synthesis science this study also reveals differences in the aqueous chemistries between Hf and Zr, two elements with ostensibly very similar chemical behavior.

Understanding the role of aqueous solution speciation and its application to the directed syntheses of complex oxidic Zr chlorides and sulfates.

The lack of an in-depth understanding of solution-phase speciation and its relationship to solid-state phase formation is a grand challenge in synthesis science. It has severely limited the ability of inorganic chemists to predict or rationalize the formation of compounds from solutions. The need to investigate mechanisms that underlie self-assembly has motivated this study of aqueous Zr-sulfate chemistry as a model system, with the goal of understanding the structures of oligomeric clusters present in solution. We used high-energy X-ray scattering (HEXS) data to quantify Zr correlations in a series of solutions as a function of sulfate concentration. The pair distribution function (PDF) from the sulfate-free sample reveals that the average oligomeric Zr moiety is larger than the tetrameric building unit, [Zr4(OH)8(H2O)16](8+), generally understood to dominate its solution speciation. At sulfate concentrations greater than 1 m (molal), bidentate sulfate is observed, a coordination not seen in Zr(SO4)2·4H2O (2), which forms upon evaporation. Also seen in solution are correlations consistent with sulfate-bridged Zr dimers and the higher-order oligomers seen in 2. At intermediate sulfate concentrations there are correlations consistent with large Zr hydroxo-/oxo-bridged clusters. Crystals of [Zr18(OH)26O20(H2O)23.2(SO4)12.7]Cl0.6·nH2O (3) precipitate from these solutions. The Raman spectrum of 3 has a peak at 1017 cm(-1) that can be used as a signature for its presence in solution. Raman studies on deuterated solutions point to the important role of sulfate in the crystallization process. These solution results emphasize the presence of well-defined prenucleation correlations on length scales of <1 nm, often considered to be within the structurally amorphous regime.

CaFe4As3: a metallic iron arsenide with anisotropic magnetic and charge-transport properties.

The iron arsenide CaFe(4)As(3) features a three-dimensional network derived from intergrown Fe(2)As(2) layers and Ca ions in channels. Complex magnetic interactions between Fe atoms give rise to unexpected transitions and novel direction-dependent magnetic behavior.

Medication use as a risk factor for falls among hospitalized elderly patients.

PURPOSE: The relationship between medication use and falls among hospitalized elderly patients was studied. METHODS: Sixty-two patients 65 years of age or older who fell during hospitalization were randomly selected from incident reports of falls and matched for age, sex, and discharge date with 62 patients who did not fall. Data on demographic characteristics, vital signs, laboratory test variables, drug therapy, and the presence of other known risk factors for falls were collected retrospectively and compared between the groups. RESULTS: Nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drug (NSAID) use was more frequent in patients who fell than in control patients. NSAID use was a significant predictor of falls and was associated with a 10-fold increase in the likelihood of falling. Opioid analgesics were given more frequently to control patients and were not associated with falls. Dementia, the only non-medication-related independent predicator of falls, was associated with a 21-fold greater risk of falling. CONCLUSION: In hospitalized elderly patients, there was a significant association between NSAID use and falls, an effect largely accounted for by low-dose aspirin.

Extreme events due to human-induced climate change.

A recent assessment by the intergovernmental panel on climate change concluded that the Earth's climate would be 2-6 degrees C warmer than in the pre-industrial era by the end of the twenty-first century, due to human-induced increases in greenhouse gases. In the absence of other changes, this would lead to the warmest period on Earth for at least the last 1000 years, and probably the last 100,000 years. The large-scale warming is expected to be accompanied by increased frequency and/or intensity of extreme events, such as heatwaves, heavy rainfall, storms and coastal flooding. There are also several possibilities that this large change could initiate nonlinear climate responses which lead to even more extreme and rapid (on the time-scale of decades) climate change, including the collapse of the ocean 'conveyor belt' circulation, the collapse of major ice sheets or the release of large amounts of methane in high latitudes leading to further global warming. Although these catastrophic events are much more speculative than the direct warming due to increased greenhouse gases, their potential impacts are great and therefore should be included in any risk assessment of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change.