Integrating essence of "time" for blood pressure control in nephrology care.

Controlling blood pressure (BP) is essential in the management of patients with chronic kidney disease. Reflecting the intrinsic variability of BP, several parameters of BP over time have been shown to predict adverse outcomes. Systolic BP time in target range has been recently proposed as a new promising parameter. Park et al. confirmed its prognostic value in patients with chronic kidney disease. We review the potential clinical usefulness and challenges of this parameter in nephrology care.

Premorbid physical activity and prognosis after incident myocardial infarction: The atherosclerosis risk in communities study.

BACKGROUND: High to moderate levels of physical activity (PA) are associated with low risk of incident cardiovascular disease. However, it is unclear whether the benefits of PA in midlife extend to cardiovascular health following myocardial infarction (MI) in later life. METHODS: Among 1,111 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study participants with incident MI during Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities follow-up (mean age 73 [SD 9] years at MI, 54% men, 21% Black), PA on average 11.9 (SD 6.9) years prior to incident MI (premorbid PA) was evaluated as the average score of PA between visit 1 (1987-1989) and visit 3 (1993-1995) using a modified Baecke questionnaire. Total and domain-specific PA (sport, nonsport leisure, and work PA) was analyzed for associations with composite and individual outcomes of mortality, recurrent MI, and stroke after index MI using multivariable Cox models. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 4.6 (IQI 1.0-10.5) years after incident MI, 823 participants (74%) developed a composite outcome. The 10-year cumulative incidence of the composite outcome was lower in the highest, as compared to the lowest tertile of premorbid total PA (56% vs. 70%, respectively). This association remained statistically significant even after adjusting for potential confounders (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.80 [0.67-0.96] for the highest vs. lowest tertile). For individual outcomes, high premorbid total PA was associated with a low risk of recurrent MI (corresponding aHR 0.64 [0.44, 0.93]). When domain-specific PA was analyzed, similar results were seen for sport and work PA. The association was strongest in the first year following MI (e.g., aHR of composite outcome 0.66 [95% CI 0.47, 0.91] for the highest vs. lowest tertile of total PA). CONCLUSIONS: Premorbid PA was associated positively with post-MI cardiovascular health. Our results demonstrate the additional prognostic advantages of PA beyond reducing the risk of incident MI.

Differences in incident and recurrent myocardial infarction among White and Black individuals aged 35 to 84: Findings from the ARIC community surveillance study.

BACKGROUND: No previous study has examined racial differences in recurrent acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in a community population. We aimed to examine racial differences in recurrent AMI risk, along with first AMI risk in a community population. METHODS: The community surveillance of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (2005-2014) included 470,000 people 35 to 84 years old in 4 U.S. communities. Hospitalizations for recurrent and first AMI were identified from ICD-9-CM discharge codes. Poisson regression models were used to compare recurrent and first AMI risk ratios between Black and White residents. RESULTS: Recurrent and first AMI risk per 1,000 persons were 8.8 (95% CI, 8.3-9.2) and 20.7 (95% CI, 20.0-21.4) in Black men, 6.8 (95% CI, 6.5-7.0) and 14.1 (95% CI, 13.8-14.5) in White men, 5.3 (95% CI, 5.0-5.7) and 16.2 (95% CI, 15.6-16.8) in Black women, and 3.1 (95% CI, 3.0-3.3) and 8.8 (95% CI, 8.6-9.0) in White women, respectively. The age-adjusted risk ratios (RR) of recurrent AMI were higher in Black men vs White men (RR, 1.58 95% CI, 1.30-1.92) and Black women vs White women (RR, 2.09 95% CI, 1.64-2.66). The corresponding RRs were slightly lower for first AMI: Black men vs White men, RR, 1.49 (95% CI, 1.30-1.71) and Black women vs White women, RR, 1.65 (95% CI, 1.42-1.92) CONCLUSIONS: Large disparities exist by race for recurrent AMI risk in the community. The magnitude of disparities is stronger for recurrent events than for first events, and particularly among women.

Growth Differentiation Factor 15 and the Subsequent Risk of Atrial Fibrillation: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

BACKGROUND: Growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) is a stress-responsive biomarker associated with several types of cardiovascular diseases. However, conflicting results have been reported regarding its association with incident atrial fibrillation (AF) in the general population. METHODS: In 10 234 White and Black Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study participants (mean age 60 years, 20.5% Blacks) free of AF at baseline (1993 to 1995), we quantified the association of GDF-15 with incident AF using Cox regression models. GDF-15 concentration was measured by an aptamer-based proteomic method. AF was defined as AF diagnosis by electrocardiogram at subsequent ARIC visits or AF diagnosis in hospitalization records or death certificates. Harrell's c-statistic and categorical net reclassification improvement were computed for risk discrimination and reclassification. RESULTS: There were 2217 cases of incident AF over a median follow-up of 20.6 years (incidence rate 12.3 cases/1000 person-years). After adjusting for potential confounders, GDF-15 was independently associated with incident AF, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.42 (95% CI, 1.24-1.62) for the top vs bottom quartile. The result remained consistent (HR 1.23 [95% CI, 1.07-1.41]) even after further adjusting for 2 cardiac biomarkers, cardiac troponin T and natriuretic peptide. The results were largely consistent across demographic subgroups. The addition of GDF-15 modestly improved the c-statistic by 0.003 (95% CI, 0.001-0.006) beyond known risk factors of AF. CONCLUSIONS: In this community-based biracial cohort, higher concentrations of GDF-15 were independently associated with incident AF, supporting its potential value as a clinical marker of AF risk.

Life's Simple 7 at Midlife and Risk of Recurrent Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality after Stroke: The ARIC study.

BACKGROUND: Stroke is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among adults in the U.S. Ideal levels of the Life's Simple 7 (LS7) are associated with lower cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality. However, the association of LS7 with CVD, recurrent stroke, and all-cause mortality after incident stroke is unknown. METHODS: We used data from the ARIC study, a cohort of 13,508 adults from four US communities, 45-64 years old at baseline (1987-1989). Cardiovascular hospitalizations and mortality were ascertained in follow-up through December 31st, 2017. We defined cardiovascular health (CVH) based on AHA definitions for LS7 (range 0-14) and categorized CVH into four levels: LS7 0-3, 4-6, 7-9, and ≥10 (ideal LS7), according to prior studies. Outcomes included incident stroke, CVD, recurrent stroke, all-cause mortality, and a composite outcome including all the above. Adjusted hazard ratios (95% CI) were estimated with Cox proportional hazards regression models. RESULTS: Median (25%-75%) follow-up for incident stroke was 28 (18.6-29.2) years. Participants with incident stroke were 55.7 (SD 5.6) years-old at baseline, 53% were women and 35% Black. Individuals with LS7 score ≥10 had 65% lower risk (HR: 0.35; 95% CI: 0.29-0.41) of incident stroke than those with LS7 4-6 (reference group). Of 1,218 participants with incident stroke, 41.2% (n=502) had composite CVD and 68.3% (n=832) died during a median (25%-75%) follow-up of 4.0 (0.76-9.95) years. Adjusted HR (95% CI) for stroke survivors with LS7≥10 at baseline were 0.74 (0.58-0.94) for the composite outcome, 0.38(0.17-0.85) for myocardial infarction, 0.60 (0.40-0.90) for heart failure, 0.63 (0.48-0.84) for all-cause mortality, and 0.65 (0.39-1.08) for recurrent stroke. CONCLUSIONS: Good and excellent midlife cardiovascular health are associated with lower risks of incident stroke and CVD after stroke. Clinicians should stress the importance of a healthy lifestyle for primary and secondary CVD prevention.

Prestroke Physical Activity and Adverse Health Outcomes After Stroke in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The association of physical activity (PA) before stroke (prestroke PA) with long-term prognosis after stroke is still unclear. We examined the association of prestroke PA with adverse health outcomes in the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities). METHODS: We included 881 participants with incident stroke occurring between 1993 and 1995 (visit 3) and December 31, 2016. Follow-up continued until December 31, 2017 to allow for at least 1-year after incident stroke. Prestroke PA was assessed using a modified version of the Baecke questionnaire in 1987 to 1989 (visit 1) and 1993 to 1995 (visit 3), evaluating PA domains (work, leisure, and sports) and total PA. We used Cox proportional hazards models to quantify the association between tertiles of accumulated prestroke PA levels over the 6-year period between visits 1 and 3 and mortality, risk of cardiovascular disease, and recurrent stroke after incident stroke. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 3.1 years after incident stroke, 676 (77%) participants had adverse outcomes. Highest prestroke total PA was associated with decreased risks of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 0.78 [95% CI, 0.63-0.97]) compared with lowest tertile. In the analysis by domain-specific PA, highest levels of work PA were associated with lower risk for all-cause (hazard ratio, 0.77 [95% CI, 0.62-0.96]) and cardiovascular mortality (hazard ratio, 0.45 [95% CI, 0.29-0.70]), and highest levels of leisure PA were associated with lower all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 0.72 [95% CI, 0.58-0.89]) compared with lowest tertile of PA. No significant associations for sports PA were observed. CONCLUSIONS: Higher levels of total prestroke PA as well as work and leisure PA were associated with lower risk of mortality after incident stroke. Public health strategies to increase lifetime PA should be encouraged to decrease long-term mortality after stroke.

Albuminuria, Kidney Function, and Cancer Risk in the Community.

Few studies have comprehensively investigated the association of 2 key kidney disease measures, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR), with cancer incidence. In 8,935 participants at the baseline (1996-1998) from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, we quantified the associations of eGFR (based on creatinine and cystatin C) and ACR with cancer risk using Cox regression models adjusted for potential confounders. Due to changing guidelines for prostate cancer screening during the follow-up period, we investigated overall cancer, overall nonprostate cancer, and site-specific cancer. During a median follow-up of 14.7 years, 2,030 incident cancer cases occurred. In demographically adjusted models, low eGFR and high ACR were associated with cancer incidence (both overall and overall nonprostate cancer). These associations were attenuated after adjusting for other shared risk factors, with a significant association remaining only for ACR (≥103 compared with 5 mg/g) and overall nonprostate cancer. For site-specific cancer, only high ACR showed a significant association with lung and urinary tract cancers. Of these, the association between ACR and lung cancer appeared most robust in several sensitivity analyses. Kidney disease measures, particularly high ACR, were independently associated with cancer risk. The association between ACR and lung cancer was uniquely robust, warranting future studies to explore potential mechanisms.

Premorbid levels of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T and natriuretic peptide and prognosis after incident myocardial infarction.

High-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) at the time of myocardial infarction (MI) are strong predictors of prognosis. However, whether their premorbid (before MI occurrence) levels are associated with prognosis after incident MI is unknown. METHODS: In 1,054 participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study with incident MI, we evaluated premorbid levels of hs-cTnT and NT-proBNP measured on median 5.8 (interquartile interval 3.0-11.5 [mean 5.5]) years prior to incident MI and their associations with subsequent composite and individual outcomes of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, recurrent MI, heart failure, and stroke. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 3.0 years after MI, 801 participants developed the composite outcome. Both hs-cTnT and NT-proBNP were independently associated with the composite outcome after incident MI. Among individual outcomes, all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and heart failure showed significant associations with both cardiac markers. Overall, NT-proBNP demonstrated a more evident relationship than hs-cTnT. Indeed, the addition of premorbid NT-proBNP alone, but not hs-cTnT alone, to conventional predictors at incident MI significantly improved risk prediction of the composite outcome after incident MI (Δc-statistic 0.013 [95% CI 0.005-0.022] from 0.691 with conventional predictors). CONCLUSIONS: Premorbid levels of hs-cTnT and NT-proBNP assessed on average 6 years prior to incident MI were associated with adverse outcomes after incident MI. These results further highlight the importance of cardiac health at an earlier stage of life.

Low Systolic Blood Pressure and Vascular Mortality Among More Than 1 Million Korean Adults.

BACKGROUND: The association between low systolic blood pressure (SBP) and vascular disease is unclear, especially in nonclinical populations. METHODS AND RESULTS: We studied 1 235 246 individuals who participated in routine medical examinations between 1992 and 1995. The hazard ratios (HRs) were adjusted for potential confounders. During 22.7 million person-years of follow-up, 34 816 individuals died of atherosclerotic vascular diseases. An increase in SBP was directly related to an increase in vascular mortality at SBP above ≈100 mmHg. The group with the lowest SBP (<90 mm Hg) had a higher HR for mortality from atherosclerotic vascular disease (HR, 1.53; 95% confidence interval, 1.15-2.03) in comparison with those with an SBP of 90 to 99 mm Hg. The HR associated with the lowest SBP was 2.54 (95% confidence interval, 1.51-4.29) for ischemic heart disease and 1.21 (95% confidence interval, 0.79-1.85) for stroke. Regarding stroke subtype, mortality from hemorrhagic stroke (HR per 10 mm Hg increase, 0.53; 95% confidence interval, 0.29-0.96), rather than mortality from ischemic stroke (HR per 10 mm Hg increase, 1.00; 95% confidence interval, 0.51-1.97), was inversely associated with SBP when SBP fell to <100 mm Hg. Even when excluding the first 5 years of follow-up, the HRs associated with the lowest SBP did not decrease. The inverse association between SBP and vascular mortality in the range <100 mm Hg tended to be apparent in people aged 60 to 95 years in comparison with individuals aged 30 to 59 years. CONCLUSIONS: J-curve associations exist between SBP and vascular mortality, which reach a nadir at ≈100 mm Hg. SBP of <90 mm Hg may portend death from vascular disease, particularly from ischemic heart disease.

Kidney Function, Proteinuria, and Cancer Incidence: The Korean Heart Study.

BACKGROUND: Reported associations of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) with cancer risk are inconsistent, and data for the proteinuria-cancer relationship are sparse. We sought to quantify the associations of cancer incidence with eGFR and with proteinuria in a large population-based cohort. STUDY DESIGN: A prospective cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 242,583 adults (30-74 years old) without a diagnosis of cancer at baseline in the Korean Heart Study, based on health checkups in 1996 to 2004 with follow-up until 2012. PREDICTORS: Creatinine-based eGFR (≥90, 60-89, 45-59, and <45mL/min/1.73m2) and dipstick proteinuria (undetectable/trace, 1+, 2+, and ≥3+). OUTCOMES: Overall and site-specific cancer incidence based on ICD-10 codes. RESULTS: 15,165 cases of cancer were detected. The relationship between eGFR and incidence of any cancer was J shaped, with the lowest risk at 45 to 59mL/min/1.73m2. There was 44% higher risk for any cancer among those with eGFRs<45mL/min/1.73m2 compared with those with eGFRs≥90mL/min/1.73m2 (HR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.11-1.87). High proteinuria was also associated with cancer risk, showing a dose-response relationship (HRs of 1.24 [95% CI, 1.13-1.35], 1.38 [95% CI, 1.17-1.63], and 1.66 [95% CI, 1.30-2.12] for 1+, 2+, and ≥3+ vs undetectable/trace). Examining site-specific cancer, eGFR<45 (vs ≥45) mL/min/1.73m2 was significantly associated with kidney and ureteral cancer, multiple myeloma, and leukemia, whereas proteinuria ≥ 1+ (vs undetectable/trace) was related to a broader set of cancers (ie, stomach, rectal, liver, lung, ovarian, kidney, bladder, and multiple myeloma). After excluding study participants with follow-up less than 3 years, the associations remained consistent for kidney cancer and myeloma with eGFR and for rectal, liver, lung, and ovarian cancer with proteinuria. LIMITATIONS: Relatively small number of participants with severely reduced eGFR or 70 years or older. CONCLUSIONS: Kidney measures, particularly proteinuria, were associated with increased incidence of cancer. Future studies are needed to better understand the pathophysiologic mechanisms underlying these associations.

Prognostic Value of Chronic Kidney Disease Measures in Patients With Cardiac Disease.

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is considered a global public health issue. The latest international clinical guideline emphasizes characterization of CKD with both glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and albuminuria. CKD is closely related to cardiac disease and increases the risk of adverse outcomes among patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD). Indeed, numerous studies have investigated the association of CKD measures with prognosis among patients with CVD, but most of them have focused on kidney function, with limited data on albuminuria. Consequently, although there are several risk prediction tools for patients with CVD incorporating kidney function, to our knowledge, none of them include albuminuria. Moreover, the selection of the kidney function measure (e.g., serum creatinine, creatinine-based estimated GFR, or blood urea nitrogen) in these tools is heterogeneous. In this review, we will summarize these aspects, as well as the burden of CKD in patients with CVD, in the current literature. We will also discuss potential mechanisms linking CKD to secondary events and consider future research directions. Given their clinical and public health importance, for CVD we will focus on 2 representative cardiac diseases: myocardial infarction and heart failure.

Tuberculosis, smoking and risk for lung cancer incidence and mortality.

Among the exposures associated with risk for lung cancer, a history of tuberculosis (TB) is one potentially important factor, given the high prevalence of TB worldwide. A prospective cohort study was conducted to evaluate the associations of preexisting pulmonary TB with lung cancer incidence and mortality. The cohort consisted of 1,607,710 Korean adults covered by the National Health Insurance System who had a biennial national medical examination during 1997-2000. During up to 16 years of follow-up, there were 12,819 incident cases of lung cancer and 9,562 lung cancer deaths. Using Cox proportional hazards models and controlling for age, cigarette smoking and other covariates, the presence of underlying TB was significantly associated with increased risk for lung cancer incidence (HR 1.37 in men with 95% CI 1.29-1.45; HR 1.49 in women with 95% CI 1.28-1.74) and mortality (HR 1.43 in men with 95% CI 1.34-1.52; HR 1.53 in women with 95% CI 1.28-1.83). We also observed a dose-response relationship between number of cigarettes smoked daily and lung cancer risk. There was no evidence for synergism between a history of TB and smoking. The elevation in risk is relatively modest, particularly in comparison to that from smoking, and a prior history of TB is not likely to be useful risk indicator for clinical purposes. In populations with high prevalence of TB, it can be considered for incorporation into models for lung cancer risk prediction.

γ-Glutamyltransferase and cancer risk: The Korean cancer prevention study.

Elevated serum γ-glutamyltransferase (GGT) is a marker of hepatic injury and is associated with risk of chronic disease. However, the value of GGT as a biomarker for cancer risk remains unclear. Therefore, we evaluated the association of serum GGT with cancer incidence among more than 1.6 million Koreans. We included 1,662,087 Koreans (1,108,121 men and 553,966 women aged 20-95 years) who received health insurance from the National Health Insurance Service and had a biennial medical evaluation between 1995 and 1998. Follow-up was through December 2012. Using Cox proportional hazards models, we adjusted for age, smoking status, alcohol consumption, exercise and body mass index after exclusion of early cases (cancer diagnosis or death within 5 years of starting follow-up) and estimated hazard ratios (HRs) of overall and organ-specific cancer incidence by GGT quintiles. During the 17-year follow-up, 129,087 new cancer cases occurred among the participants. Across levels of GGT, there was a positive gradient of HR and the highest quintile of GGT (≥ 60 IU/L) had the highest HR for all cancers in both men and women. By cancer site, the association was strongest for liver cancer, comparing the highest and lowest strata in men [HR, 6.67; 95% confidence interval (95%CI), 5.88-7.57] and in women (HR, 7.57; 95%CI, 6.41-8.94). Significant associations were also observed for cancers of the esophagus, larynx, stomach, colorectal, bile duct and lung in men and of the bile duct in women. Increased serum GGT level is independently associated with risk of cancer.

Associations of Dietary Calcium and Phosphorus With Vascular and Valvular Calcification: The ARIC Study.

Background: High dietary calcium and phosphorus may accelerate vascular calcification, but epidemiological data are inconsistent. Most of those studies assessed diet at one point and have not been systematically evaluated. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to assess the associations of dietary calcium and phosphorus intakes in middle age with coronary artery and extra-coronary calcification at older age. Methods: We studied 1,914 participants from the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities) study (mean age 80.5 years) without coronary heart disease who underwent chest computed tomography scans at visit 7 (2018-2019) and completed a 66-item food frequency questionnaire at 2 earlier visits (visit 1 [1987-1989] and visit 3 [1993-1995]). Dietary calcium and phosphorus intakes were averaged between these 2 visits. Calcification was quantified by the Agatston score in coronary artery, ascending aorta, descending aorta, aortic valve ring, aortic valve, and mitral valve. Results: Dietary calcium intake was inversely associated with coronary artery and ascending aorta calcification, whereas the association was not significant for other measures of extra-coronary calcification. For example, the highest vs lowest quartile of calcium intake showed an adjusted OR of 0.66 (95% CI: 0.45-0.98) for coronary artery calcification (Agatston score ≥75th percentile). Dietary phosphorus intake demonstrated similar results, but the magnitude of the association was weaker than dietary calcium intake. Conclusions: Dietary calcium and phosphorus intakes at middle age were not positively associated with vascular and valvular calcification at over 75 years old. Our findings did not support the link between a calcium or phosphorus-rich diet and vascular and valvular calcification.

Associations of psychosocial factors and cardiovascular health measured by Life's Essential 8: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study.

AIMS: Few studies investigate whether psychosocial factors (social isolation, social support, trait anger, and depressive symptoms) are associated with cardiovascular health, and none with the American Heart Association's new definition of cardiovascular health, Life's Essential 8 (LE8). Therefore, we assessed the cross-sectional associations of psychosocial factors with Life's Essential 8 and individual components of Life's Essential 8. METHODS: We included 11,311 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities cohort participants (58% females; 23% Black; mean age 57 (standard deviation: 6) years) who attended Visit 2 (1990-1992) in this secondary data analysis using cross-sectional data from the ARIC cohort study. Life's Essential 8 components included diet, physical activity, nicotine exposure, sleep quality, body mass index, blood lipids, blood glucose, and blood pressure. Life's Essential 8 was scored per the American Heart Association definition (0-100 range); higher scores indicate better cardiovascular health. Associations of categories (high, moderate, and low) of each psychosocial factor with continuous Life's Essential 8 score and individual Life's Essential 8 components were assessed using multivariable linear regressions. RESULTS: 11% of participants had high Life's Essential 8 scores (80-100), while 67% and 22% had moderate (50-79) and low Life's Essential 8 scores (0-49) respectively. Poor scores on psychosocial factor assessments were associated with lower Life's Essential 8 scores, with the largest magnitude of association for categories of depressive symptoms (low ß = Ref.; moderate ß = -3.1, (95% confidence interval: -3.7, -2.5; high ß = -8.2 (95% confidence interval: -8.8, -7.5)). Most psychosocial factors were associated with Life's Essential 8 scores for diet, physical activity, nicotine, and sleep, but psychosocial factors were not associated with body mass index, blood lipids, blood glucose, or blood pressure. CONCLUSION: Less favorable measures of psychosocial health were associated with lower Life's Essential 8 scores compared better measures of psychosocial health among middle-aged males and females.

Subsequent risk of cancer among adults with peripheral artery disease in the community: The atherosclerosis risk in communities (ARIC) study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Several studies reported an increased cancer risk related to lower-extremity peripheral artery disease (PAD) but had important caveats: not accounting for key confounders like smoking, follow-up <10 years, or no race-specific results. To assess the long-term independent association of PAD with cancer incidence in a bi-racial community-based cohort. METHODS: We categorized 13,106 ARIC participants without cancer at baseline (mean age 54.0 [SD 5.7] years, 45.7 % male, and 26.1 % Black) into symptomatic PAD (clinical history or intermittent claudication), asymptomatic PAD (ankle-brachial index [ABI] ≤0.9), and five ABI categories (0.1-interval between 0.9 and 1.3 and > 1.3). We used cancer registries and medical records to ascertain cancer cases and ran multivariable Cox models. RESULTS: During the median follow-up of 25.3 years, there were 4143 incident cancer cases. 25-year cumulative incidence was 37.2 % in symptomatic PAD, 32.3 % in asymptomatic PAD, and 28.0-31.0 % in the other categories. Symptomatic and asymptomatic PAD remained significantly associated with cancer incidence after adjusting for potential confounders, including smoking and diabetes (hazard ratio [HR] 1.42 [1.05-1.92] and 1.24 [1.05-1.46], respectively). When stratified by smoking status, we observed a robust association of PAD (symptomatic and asymptomatic combined) vs. no PAD with cancer risk in ever smokers (HR 1.42 [1.21-1.67]) but not in never smokers. The results were most evident for lung cancer (HR 2.16 (95 %CI 1.65-2.83) for PAD vs. no PAD within ever smokers). CONCLUSIONS: Symptomatic and asymptomatic PAD conferred cancer risk, particularly among ever smokers and for lung cancer. Patients with PAD should receive evidence-based cancer prevention and screening.

Universal Risk Prediction for Individuals With and Without Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease.

BACKGROUND: American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines recommend distinct risk classification systems for primary and secondary cardiovascular disease prevention. However, both systems rely on similar predictors (eg, age and diabetes), indicating the possibility of a universal risk prediction approach for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs). OBJECTIVES: The authors examined the performance of predictors in persons with and without atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and developed and validated a universal risk prediction model. METHODS: Among 9,138 ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities) participants with (n = 609) and without (n = 8,529) ASCVD at baseline (1996-1998), we examined established predictors in the risk classification systems and other predictors, such as body mass index and cardiac biomarkers (troponin and natriuretic peptide), using Cox models with MACEs (myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure). We also evaluated model performance. RESULTS: Over a follow-up of approximately 20 years, there were 3,209 MACEs (2,797 for no prior ASCVD). Most predictors showed similar associations with MACE regardless of baseline ASCVD status. A universal risk prediction model with the predictors (eg, established predictors, cardiac biomarkers) identified by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression and bootstrapping showed good discrimination for both groups (c-statistics of 0.747 and 0.691, respectively), and risk classification and showed excellent calibration, irrespective of ASCVD status. This universal prediction approach identified individuals without ASCVD who had a higher risk than some individuals with ASCVD and was validated externally in 5,322 participants in the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis). CONCLUSIONS: A universal risk prediction approach performed well in persons with and without ASCVD. This approach could facilitate the transition from primary to secondary prevention by streamlining risk classification and discussion between clinicians and patients.

Chest Symptoms and Long-Term Risk of Incident Cardiovascular Disease.

BACKGROUND: We sought to evaluate the associations of chest pain and dyspnea with the long-term risk of cardiovascular disease including coronary disease, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, and stroke. METHODS: In 13,200 participants without cardiovascular disease in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study (1987-1989), chest pain was categorized into definite angina, possible angina, non-anginal chest pain, and no chest pain using the Rose questionnaire. Dyspnea was categorized into grades 3-4, 2, 1, and 0 by the modified Medical Research Council scale. The associations of chest pain and dyspnea with incident myocardial infarction, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, and stroke over a median follow-up of ∼27 years were quantified with multivariable Cox models. RESULTS: Definite angina and possible angina were associated with myocardial infarction (adjusted hazard ratios [HR] 1.80 [95%CI 1.45-2.13] and 1.65 [1.27-2.15]). Although lesser magnitude than myocardial infarction, both definite and possible angina were associated with heart failure. For atrial fibrillation, possible angina showed higher HR than definite angina. Dyspnea showed similar HRs for myocardial infarction and heart failure in grades 3-4 (2.00 [1.61-2.49] and 1.94 [1.62-2.32]). Stroke was least associated with chest symptoms. Chest pain and dyspnea significantly improved the discrimination of cardiovascular disease except stroke, beyond traditional risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: In individuals without cardiovascular disease, chest pain and dyspnea were independently associated with incident cardiovascular disease for about 3 decades, suggesting the need for evaluating chest pain from a broader perspective of cardiovascular disease beyond coronary disease and the importance of dyspnea for cardiovascular risk assessment including myocardial infarction.